Seth Stohs

LHP, came from the Yankees... could pitch for the Twins... wonder if he'll move to the bullpen?

I think they'll always get the best available, but they have talked about developing waves too so that as players go or injuries happen, you can keep the train rolling.

They signed veteran Bobby Wilson to a minor league deal, so he'll likely be one of their catchers.

Over the past month, I wrote up quick profiles for my preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects rankings. It’s preliminary because over the last two months, I have been working on profiles, backgrounds and scouting reports for about 170 Twins minor leaguers for the soon-to-be-released 2018 Twins Prospect Handbook. Along with Cody Christie and Tom Froemming, we’ve been putting in a lot of hours to produce the 10th annual handbook. More information will be coming to Twins Daily around Christmas.But I thought it would be good to take a look at the Top 50 rankings in its totality to see what it is showing us. Are there any themes? Positions of strength, weakness, etc? With that, here is the full list of my preliminary Top 50 Twins prospects. Please note that this is not necessarily my final rankings. Those will appear in the prospect handbook. (last year's rankings in parentheses, or how acquired) Here are a few themes from this prospect ranking: The New Guys On Wednesday night, the Twins traded $1 million in international bonus pool money to the Angels and the Mariners. In return, they acquired the Mariners fifth-round pick in 2017, catcher David Banuelos. From the Angels, the Twins acquired their third- round pick in 2017, outfielder Jacob Pearson. Immediately, I was getting asked where these two prospects would fit into my rankings. Well, I haven’t had a lot of time yet to research or talk to people, so these are subject to change. As you can see, I ranked Pearson #13, two spots below the Twins third- round pick, Blayne Enlow. Both players competed in Louisiana high schools before the draft. Pearson was the state’s player of the year. I ranked Banuelos #21. The Twins fifth-round pick this year was Andrew Bechtold, and he’s ranked a little further down the list, at #30 for now. Banuelos is a valuable prospect for a team in that really strong defensive catchers have a lot of value. The fact that there are question marks with his bat keep me from ranking him too much higher than this. The 2017 Draft It’s no surprise to see several Twins 2017 draft picks in a Top 50, but it is really nice to see the high impact prospects that show up at the top of the list. Royce Lewis is the new #1. Brent Rooker and Blayne Enlow are also in my Top 10. That’s some quality talent brought in. But second-round pick Landon Leach probably should be higher than where I have him. Charlie Barnes is a high-floor player who could move up quickly. And, Bechtold is a guy who gets on base a ton, could hit for average and could develop some power. I’m also quite high on sixth-round pick Ricky De La Torre, who made the list. And, frankly, the more I research a guy like Derek Molina (14th round), the more I consider the idea of putting him near the back of this list. Then add in the acquisitions of Pearson and Banuelos, two guys that were in Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects in the 2017 draft, and that’s a great job of bringing in talent! Relievers Too Low Those that have been following me for years know that I tend to rank relievers lower on prospect rankings than their potential value in the big leagues might be. Consider that I ranked Trevor Hildenberger #42 a year ago, knowing he had the ability to be a good MLB reliever, and my point is illustrated. I really struggled this year with ranking relievers. You see a bunch at the end because those are are guys that I think could get to the big leagues and be quality relievers. But, as we’ve watched Nick Burdi and JT Chargois and Mason Melotakis need Tommy John surgery and struggle to be healthy, it’s such a challenging job. So, John Curtiss is the highest ranked prospect for me this year. I believe he has the stuff to be a closer in time. Tyler Jay is next. When he was considered a potential starter, I had him in the Top 10 prospects. Now that he’s been moved to the bullpen (and fought injuries all year), he drops. Youth is Served It’s not unusual to see prospect rankings have a lot of very young, toolsy players ranked high. If you look at my prospects, particularly the #4 through #11 range, you see just that. They are easy to get excited about while at the same time understanding that they have a long way to go, and with that, a lot of development. Some will take those necessary strides forward. Some won’t. That’s the nature of player development. But with guys like Akil Baddoo and Brusdar Graterol in the mix, fans should start getting excited about what they could be. Experience is Served While tools and ceiling are important, floor should be factored in as well. For instance, Mitch Garver’s floor is major league backup catcher. I mean, he’s basically there already. His ceiling is quality starting catcher. He’s coming off of a terrific 2017 season in the highest level of the minors. There needs to be value in having played at the higher level. I subscribe to the thought that once a guy experiences good success in AA and/or AAA, he is pretty close. Luke Bard put up some crazy numbers in AA and then in AAA this year. Sure, he’s 27 and hasn’t played in the big leagues, but I still think he could become a solid MLB reliever. A Combination of Both There’s a reason that guys like Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero and Felix Jorge rank where they do. They’ve overcome the struggles of taking their talent and working hard and experiencing success and finding themselves putting up good numbers in the upper levels. They all have the potential to be quality major league starters, but they have worked up such that their floor is higher too. Trades Help Too While the Twins were surprising everyone with their turnaround success in 2017, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine never really wavered from their comments about continuing to build and continuing to look for talent, particularly pitching, everywhere. Since they’ve taken over, they have traded for Zack Littell, Dietrich Enns, Gabriel Moya and Tyler Watson. (as well as the two players this week) Two of those pitchers pitched in the big leagues in 2017. Moya jumped straight to the Twins after completing the Southern League playoffs. Littell went 19-1 and won the MiLBY for the best starting pitcher in the minor leagues this year. They also talked about being able to provide pitching in waves, and that’s where Tyler Watson fits in. He’s just 20 and pitched in low A. He isn’t a top prospect, but he’s got the size and the pitches to move up these rankings significantly. Injuries The Twins system is deep with talent, but there were a lot of injuries (several significant) in 2017. Alex Kirilloff had Tommy John surgery in spring training. Nick Burdi had surgery in June. JT Chargois missed most of the season with more elbow issues. Jake Reed and Stephen Gonsalves missed time early in the season with minor injuries. Luis Arraez tore his ACL in his third game of the season and missed the rest of the year. Kohl Stewart was on the DL a couple of times with knee problems. Tyler Jay missed most of the season with shoulder/neck/biceps injury. On the positive, Lewis Thorpe and Brusdar Graterol made their returns from Tommy John surgery and both appear to be back to their old selves. Tyler Benninghoff just returned from Tommy John late in the season. Depth While I don’t think the Twins farm system will rank near the top of the rankings that will come out in February, I do think this is a very exciting group of prospects right now. While aside from Royce Lewis, there may not be any Buxton/Sano/Berrios caliber prospects, there are a lot of very good prospects, guys who can play a significant role in the big leagues. There are quite a few players (including some pitchers) who have high-level ceilings, but obviously further development will be required to reach it. Who Could We See in 2018? Here are guys that have a legit chance to contribute in the big leagues in 2018: Stephen Gonsalves, Nick Gordon, Fernando Romero, LaMonte Wade, Mitch Garver, Zack Littell, John Curtiss, Felix Jorge, Zack Granite, Kohl Stewart, Tyler Jay, Gabriel Moya, Aaron Slegers Jake Reed, Luke Bard, JT Chargois, Tom Hackimer. Obviously, there needs to be opportunity. Not all of these guys will play in the big leagues, but they could. But as you look at that list, you see a lot of pitching, both starters and relievers, Who will be this year’s Trevor Hildenberger? Will any of these starters have a major impact on the Twins this year. Please feel free to ask questions or find your own story lines or trends within these rankings. Please ask questions and discuss whatever it is you’d like. I’ll try to answer questions throughout the day and throughout the weekend. And please, support the Twins minor league coverage at Twins Daily by purchasing the Twins Prospect Handbook 2018 in a couple of weeks. As has been the case in past years, it’ll be available in paperback (in time for Twins Fest) and electronically. Oh, and just for fun… wanna know who prospects 51-60 were for me? Here’s some exclusive bonus information for Twins Daily readers… Here you go: 51. Jordan Balazovic, 52. Mitchell Kranson, 53. Shane Carrier, 54. Hector Lujan, 55. Cody Stashak, 56. Victor Tademo, 57. Chris Paul, 58. Sean Poppen, 59. Edwar Colina, 60. TJ White Click here to view the article

Yeah, that was the first day I got to Ft. Myers last year...

Yesterday, Nick wrote about a forgotten player who hopes to be a factor in the Twins pitching staff in 2018, Phil Hughes. Another pitcher finds himself in a similar boat. Trevor May had Tommy John surgery last March and spent the 2017 season rehabbing. That process continues. We can’t with any certainty know when he will return to the Twins. However, as with Hughes, we can certainly speculate what his role might be for the Twins in 2018 and beyond.So when might Trevor May be back? Also, what is the best role for him? Of course, there’s no way to know either of those answers, but we can at least start thinking about them. When might May return? It’s obviously difficult to know the answer to that question. One tremendous source for fans regarding Tommy John surgery is Jon Roegele’sexcellent Tommy John surgery list. It provides a lot of information on those who have had the surgery, which organization they were with, when the surgery was, when they returned, and which doctor performed the surgery. It's a very valuable tool for fans. The generic timeline for recovery of pitchers is 12-14 months, but the range really is more like 11-24 months. And even that is very dependent upon when the surgery happens. I mean, if a guy has the surgery in August, they’re going to miss the entire next season, but because there are two offseasons involved, it’s likely he won’t pitch in a game for 20-22 months. Lewis Thorpe and Fernando Romero both needed two years to return, but both of them had a setback in their recovery. Romero needed knee surgery. Thorpe lost time due to mono. Brusdar Graterol missed nearly two years as well, but he had surgery in August 2015, missed all of 2016, and didn’t return until the GCL season started in June of 2017. On the other side of things, Kyle Gibson returned to the mound just under 12 months from his surgery date. Joe Nathan returned just over a year after his 2010 Tommy John surgery. Alex Wimmers returned in 11 months. May’s most recent Twitter update on his arm came about three weeks ago. On November 13, he tweeted, “75 throws at 105 today. That’s a lot. And I’m fired up.” That doesn’t tell us when he’ll be back and able to pitch, but it tells us that things are progressing very nicely for the right-hander. It’s also possible, depending upon where May is in his rehab during spring training, that he could spend a month or two in the minor leagues building up arm strength in a controlled environment before bringing him back to the big leagues. That would not be a terrible idea, and depending on the role he’s brought back for, it might make the most sense. What Is The Best Role for May? Here is another question that we just don’t have any great answer for. There are so many variables that go into that, including things that are completely out of his control, like the Twins front office acquiring starters or relievers this offseason. A quick look back in time tells us that there are three (sort of) possibilities for guys returning from Tommy John. 1 - Starters Come Back As Starters 2 - Relievers Come Back As Relievers The first two sound really simple, right. I mean, if a guy was a starter before he had Tommy John surgery, he tends most often to come back as a starting pitcher. There are several examples of starters who came back as strong as they were before the surgery, sometimes even better. Maybe the best example of that is Tommy John himself. He notched 164 wins in the big leagues after having the surgery that is named after him. Tim Hudson, Chris Carpenter, Jordan Zimmerman. The list goes on and on of starting pitchers who have come back to all-star caliber after surgery. Kerry Wood came back as a quality starter after his surgery following his Rookie of the Year season. Likewise, relievers come back as relievers. Billy Wagner was back as the Astros closer in under a year and continued to dominate. Joe Nathan returned to dominance following his first Tommy John surgery. Pat Neshek took a little time to get back to his pre-surgery self, but he has come back to all-star levels and multi-year extensions. 3 - The John Smoltz Option (Starter Becomes Reliever) The best example of a player shifting roles after Tommy John is Hall of Famer John Smoltz. He was a tremendous starting pitcher for many years before his surgery. When he came back from his surgery, he made a handful of starts before taking over the Atlanta closer role. He went on to save 154 games over the next three-plus seasons. He became the best closer in the game for a short period. But then he went back to starting, in his fifth season after surgery. He made 100 starts over the next three years and was twice an All-Star. Kerry Wood had shoulder surgery later in his career, and at that point, he came back as a closer and was good for a couple of years. Smoltz has talked in the past about the decision to move into that closer role. Essentially, he wasn’t able to eat as many inningsas before his return, and more important, the Braves were a contending team in need of a reliable closer. Smoltz was able to not only fill that role, but dominate in it. But he did want to get back into a starting role. He talked about how he was able to develop a consistent routine, know his schedule for running, throwing, side sessions, etc. He didn’t have to worry about throwing every day. He was able to adequately rest. What About May? Which category does May fit into? That’s the tough part that we just don’t know. Starters come back as starters. Relievers come back as relievers. Well, is May a starter or a reliever? I mean, he came up as a starter, but he became a threat in the bullpen for a couple of years. He missed time in 2016 with a back injury that cost him a lot of time in the season's second half. There was thought that he could help mitigate that stress by starting. That’s the role he went into spring training 2017 fighting for. He was being given every opportunity to be a starter. Until that fateful start against Team USA in a WBC exhibition game in Ft. Myers. That night, he felt discomfort in his elbow. A month later, he had the surgery. For me, I would probably bring him back as a starter. At least that’s how I would handle his return. To me, that would be much easier on his arm and body, and it might be helpful mentally as he works through the ups and downs of a return. Then again, spring training itself is a very regimented program, especially for pitchers. They know when they’ll pitch (starters and relievers). They plan several days ahead for who will pitch and how many pitches. In other words, like all injuries or player development or anything, it has to be individualized. It’s likely that Trevor May, Paul Molitor, Thad Levine and Derek Falvey will have several conversations before spring training, and then throughout spring training. So there are two questions for the Twins Daily readers to consider: What do you think the Twins and May should decide?What do you think that the Twins and May will decide? Click here to view the article

I know...

And my original comment was saying that he has a pretty good track record with drafting hitters... nothing to do with world series rings or anything like that.

My bigger point is that he's drafted a lot of very good hitters since 1994... Of course, he was much more involved in the draft from 1987 through 1993 (Knoblauch, Hunter), when he was the scouting director. Maybe they're not Hall of Famers, but I would feel happy if I knew a GM whose teams drafted the likes of Todd Walker, Michael Cuddyer, Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Ben Revere, Trevor Plouffe, and Byron Buxton. One of them is a borderline Hall of Famer. There are a couple of 20+ WAR guys, and Buxton's well on his way. Yes, there are misses too, like all GMs. Matt Moses didn't pan out. Neither did BJ Garbe. But again, show me another GM that hasn't had some bad misses?

So... Umm... In the last ten years, 19 players "went into the Hall of Fame." The latest that a player was drafted who got into the Hall of Fame were Frank Thomas and Jeff Bagwell, who were drafted in 1989... So, of those 23 years, zero of them are Hall of Famers... Just math... and a 10-minute research session on Baseball-Reference.

I guess if Hall of Fame is the criteria for quality draft picks...

I think Terry Ryan and those under him did a very good job of drafting and developing hitters... I think that success is clear and there are many examples. I think that their ability to draft and develop starting pitchers has been an issue that's been brought up many, many times... So I am hopeful that the Falvine Era will find more success/luck.

Nope... he went on the Disabled List with what was called a shoulder impingement.

He was on an innings limit plan. He had been limited to five innings per start for a month or six weeks before he was shut down. He was shut down when he had kind of a dead arm. It's something where if it had happened in the middle of the season, he'd skip a start and be back out there. Since it was only one more start, and he was so close to a limit, they just shut him down.

That will be quite interesting. It might be worth a trip or three to Cedar Rapids early next season to find out. But think about all the prospects who should start the season in Cedar Rapids: Lewis, Javier, Kirilloff, Enlow, Baddoo, Miranda, Cabbage, and I Know I'm missing a couple of obvious ones too. Rortvedt could start there again.

Of course, Sano was 19-years-old for the first month+ that he was with Ft. Myers. Ortiz was 20. It's a good rate stat to look at, but it does need some context. Of course, Rooker only had about 5 weeks of pro ball under his belt when he did it whereas Sano and Ortiz were in their fourth seasons as professionals. Rooker is a terrific prospect, and his age doesn't bother me. He was a four-year college guy and he was in Ft. Myers five weeks into his pro career. As I've written before... that's very unusual... It was impressive enough for me to rank him 6th, ahead of four younger players that probably have a higher ceiling. So it's fair to say I'm pretty high on Rooker.

It’s been almost a month since I started posting my 2017 postseason Minnesota Twins Top 50 Prospect Rankings. There have been mini profiles on 45 players so far, and today you will find who my top five Twins prospects are. I certainly welcome your feedback and discussion. Prospects 6-10 were very young and very exciting. The same can be said of this group, though there are also a couple of guys that we should see in a Twins uniform during the 2018 season. If you’ve enjoyed these mini-profiles of 50 Twins prospects, you’ll definitely want to get a copy of the 2018 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook, which will be available in about a month. There will be bigger profiles on about 170 Twins prospects, along with stories, rankings and much more.Let’s get to my choices for the Top 5 Twins prospects. This is a very talented group, all of who have the ability to not only play in the big leagues but be strong, long-term contributors. Please feel free to discuss. (Note - there are links to the first seven parts of this series at the bottom) #5 OF Alex Kirilloff Yes, he missed the entire 2017 season because he had to have Tommy John surgery in early March. He had injured his arm late in the 2016 Elizabethton season but chose to rehab and hope. The Pittsburgh native was one of the best hitters in the 2016 draft when the Twins made him the 15th overall pick in the draft. He came in and hit very well in Elizabethton .He is a big, strong kid. He’s 6-1 and about 215 pounds. He is very sound mechanically at the plate. He’s a line drive hitter who uses the whole field, and he has tremendous power potential. He should be ready for Opening Day 2018, though the Twins will certainly not rush him back. Defensively, he will be a corner outfielder. He has the arm to play right field. He’s a good athlete with a lot of potential. He just turned 20 earlier this month. (Get to know Alex Kirilloff) photo by Jon Tarr #4 RHP Fernando Romero Fernando Romero missed two full seasons because of Tommy John surgery, but he came back throwing nearly 100 mph. He’s also got a sharp slider and an improved changeup that he worked on a lot in 2017. Romero will turn 23 on Christmas Eve. He was added to the Twins 40-man roster a year ago and spent the entire season at AA Chattanooga. He went 11-9 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. In 125.1 innings, he walked 45 and struck out 120 batters. While he’s just over 6-0 tall, he’s build very strong. He’s thick in the legs and the backside and that’s where he gets his big velocity from. The hope for Romero should be to get him to 155 to 160 innings. And he should see time in the big leagues too. photo by Seth Stohs #3 SS Nick Gordon I mean... Nick G Cinco is The Man... maybe that's where we should start: Nick Gordon was the Twins first pick in the 2014 draft, the fifth overall pick out of high school in Orlando. He began his career in Elizabethton and has moved up one level each year. Following the 2016 season, he played well in the Arizona Fall League. 2017 was another exciting season for the shortstop. He played very well in the season’s first half. He was named to the Southern League All-Star team (though the game was rained out). He started for Team USA in the Futures Game before the All-Star game. He struggled a bit in the second half. More important than all the accolades, he took strides in his game. He set season highs in nearly every statistical category including Isolated Discipline and Isolated Power. After hitting a combined five home runs in his first three seasons, he hit nine home runs for the Lookouts. Defensively, the questions remain for many of whether he will be able to stay at shortstop. He is also considered a leader by those who know him best. photo by Seth Stohs #2 LHP Stephen Gonsalves Gonsalves was the runner up to Jose Berrios for the Twins Daily Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year in 2015. In 2016, he was the choice for Starting Pitcher of the Year. Like Berrios, Gonsalves became a two-time winner when he was the choice again in 2017. His season began with an invitation to big league spring training where he had a solid showing until an injury arrived and cost him the first two months of the season. He returned to the Lookouts where he went 8-3 with a 2.68 ERA in 15 starts. He made three starts for Rochester at the end of the season. Gonsalves has a terrific mix of pitches. He has a good fastball in the 91-94 range. He throws a good changeup. He has really worked on his slider and it’s become a really good pitch. He also mixes in a cutter in some situations. He is poised and he is smart on the mound. He knows how to pitch. He was added to the 40-man roster this month. He should be given an opportunity to make starts for the Twins by mid-summer. photo by Seth Stohs #1 SS Royce Lewis Derek Falvey and Thad Levine came into an enviable situation. While the 2016 team lost 103 games, the organization was blessed with some young players with high ceilings. And, along with the worst record, they had the #1 overall pick in the 2017 draft. They had choices, and some really good choices. They could have taken a college pitcher like Kyle Wright. They could have taken a high school pitcher like Hunter Greene or MacKenzie Gore. They could have taken Brendan McKay who will pitch and may hit too. Instead, the Twins went with a high school shortstop from California named Royce Lewis with the Number One pick. And if early returns mean anything, they made a really, really good choice. After the Boras client signed, he was sent to Ft. Myers and spent about a month in the GCL. In 36 games there, he hit .271/.390/.414 (.804) with six doubles, two triples and three home runs. In a somewhat surprising move, Lewis finished the season with 18 games in Cedar Rapids. He hit .296/.363/.394 (.757) with two doubles, a triple and a home run. Combined, he stole 18 bases in 21 attempts. Lewis has all the tools, though since he will remain just 18 until June, he will need to work and continue to develop all of them. He has a good approach at the plate and knows the strike zone. He’s got a smooth, line-drive swing. He’s got good size and will continue to grow and gain strength and could develop good power. He’s got well above average speed. He can play defense. And the more people watched him, the more many believe that he could stay at shortstop, but he could play any position on the field. He’s got what’s called an average arm, but he can make all the throws he needs to. From everything we’ve heard about him or from him, he has tremendous makeup. It will be fun to watch how aggressive the Twins choose to be with him in 2018. He will likely start in Cedar Rapids, but could he work his way up to Ft. Myers by season’s end? It’s possible. photo by Jean Pfiefer --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So there you have it, my choices for Minnesota Twins Top 5 prospects and my Top 50 prospects. I certainly don’t expect everyone to agree with my choices… And, by the time the 2018 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook comes out, it’s likely it will change a little bit more. But it’s fun for discussion, and it’s fun to recognize fifty players who deserve to be talked about. So, please feel free to ask questions, leave comments and discuss these rankings. Part 1: Prospects 41-50 Part 2: Prospects 31-40 Part 3: Prospects 26-30 Part 4: Prospects 21-25 Part 5: Prospects 16-20 Part 6: Prospects 11-15 Part 7: Prospects: 6-10 Click here to view the article

I can't imagine there is any plan in which Brent Rooker is a 5th OF or backup 1B. My guess is whenever he's ready, they'll bring him up to start.

The Phil Miller article in Baseball American on Graterol said that he gained 60 pounds of muscle since signing. He wasn't 120 when he signed... He may not get taller, but he's strong.

That may be why he's #8 and not #4.

#9 missed a bit of time, though the season is fairly short, so it would have amounted to about two months if he had been with a full-season team at the time. #8 - Baddoo hasn't missed any time. #7 - Graterol did miss from June 2015 through the 2016 season.

Graterol is close, but I think you're right. I think he signed after the DSL season ended, so he shouldn't be Rule 5 eligible until after 2019...