Seth Stohs

Yeah, that was the first day I got to Ft. Myers last year...

Yesterday, Nick wrote about a forgotten player who hopes to be a factor in the Twins pitching staff in 2018, Phil Hughes. Another pitcher finds himself in a similar boat. Trevor May had Tommy John surgery last March and spent the 2017 season rehabbing. That process continues. We can’t with any certainty know when he will return to the Twins. However, as with Hughes, we can certainly speculate what his role might be for the Twins in 2018 and beyond.So when might Trevor May be back? Also, what is the best role for him? Of course, there’s no way to know either of those answers, but we can at least start thinking about them. When might May return? It’s obviously difficult to know the answer to that question. One tremendous source for fans regarding Tommy John surgery is Jon Roegele’sexcellent Tommy John surgery list. It provides a lot of information on those who have had the surgery, which organization they were with, when the surgery was, when they returned, and which doctor performed the surgery. It's a very valuable tool for fans. The generic timeline for recovery of pitchers is 12-14 months, but the range really is more like 11-24 months. And even that is very dependent upon when the surgery happens. I mean, if a guy has the surgery in August, they’re going to miss the entire next season, but because there are two offseasons involved, it’s likely he won’t pitch in a game for 20-22 months. Lewis Thorpe and Fernando Romero both needed two years to return, but both of them had a setback in their recovery. Romero needed knee surgery. Thorpe lost time due to mono. Brusdar Graterol missed nearly two years as well, but he had surgery in August 2015, missed all of 2016, and didn’t return until the GCL season started in June of 2017. On the other side of things, Kyle Gibson returned to the mound just under 12 months from his surgery date. Joe Nathan returned just over a year after his 2010 Tommy John surgery. Alex Wimmers returned in 11 months. May’s most recent Twitter update on his arm came about three weeks ago. On November 13, he tweeted, “75 throws at 105 today. That’s a lot. And I’m fired up.” That doesn’t tell us when he’ll be back and able to pitch, but it tells us that things are progressing very nicely for the right-hander. It’s also possible, depending upon where May is in his rehab during spring training, that he could spend a month or two in the minor leagues building up arm strength in a controlled environment before bringing him back to the big leagues. That would not be a terrible idea, and depending on the role he’s brought back for, it might make the most sense. What Is The Best Role for May? Here is another question that we just don’t have any great answer for. There are so many variables that go into that, including things that are completely out of his control, like the Twins front office acquiring starters or relievers this offseason. A quick look back in time tells us that there are three (sort of) possibilities for guys returning from Tommy John. 1 - Starters Come Back As Starters 2 - Relievers Come Back As Relievers The first two sound really simple, right. I mean, if a guy was a starter before he had Tommy John surgery, he tends most often to come back as a starting pitcher. There are several examples of starters who came back as strong as they were before the surgery, sometimes even better. Maybe the best example of that is Tommy John himself. He notched 164 wins in the big leagues after having the surgery that is named after him. Tim Hudson, Chris Carpenter, Jordan Zimmerman. The list goes on and on of starting pitchers who have come back to all-star caliber after surgery. Kerry Wood came back as a quality starter after his surgery following his Rookie of the Year season. Likewise, relievers come back as relievers. Billy Wagner was back as the Astros closer in under a year and continued to dominate. Joe Nathan returned to dominance following his first Tommy John surgery. Pat Neshek took a little time to get back to his pre-surgery self, but he has come back to all-star levels and multi-year extensions. 3 - The John Smoltz Option (Starter Becomes Reliever) The best example of a player shifting roles after Tommy John is Hall of Famer John Smoltz. He was a tremendous starting pitcher for many years before his surgery. When he came back from his surgery, he made a handful of starts before taking over the Atlanta closer role. He went on to save 154 games over the next three-plus seasons. He became the best closer in the game for a short period. But then he went back to starting, in his fifth season after surgery. He made 100 starts over the next three years and was twice an All-Star. Kerry Wood had shoulder surgery later in his career, and at that point, he came back as a closer and was good for a couple of years. Smoltz has talked in the past about the decision to move into that closer role. Essentially, he wasn’t able to eat as many inningsas before his return, and more important, the Braves were a contending team in need of a reliable closer. Smoltz was able to not only fill that role, but dominate in it. But he did want to get back into a starting role. He talked about how he was able to develop a consistent routine, know his schedule for running, throwing, side sessions, etc. He didn’t have to worry about throwing every day. He was able to adequately rest. What About May? Which category does May fit into? That’s the tough part that we just don’t know. Starters come back as starters. Relievers come back as relievers. Well, is May a starter or a reliever? I mean, he came up as a starter, but he became a threat in the bullpen for a couple of years. He missed time in 2016 with a back injury that cost him a lot of time in the season's second half. There was thought that he could help mitigate that stress by starting. That’s the role he went into spring training 2017 fighting for. He was being given every opportunity to be a starter. Until that fateful start against Team USA in a WBC exhibition game in Ft. Myers. That night, he felt discomfort in his elbow. A month later, he had the surgery. For me, I would probably bring him back as a starter. At least that’s how I would handle his return. To me, that would be much easier on his arm and body, and it might be helpful mentally as he works through the ups and downs of a return. Then again, spring training itself is a very regimented program, especially for pitchers. They know when they’ll pitch (starters and relievers). They plan several days ahead for who will pitch and how many pitches. In other words, like all injuries or player development or anything, it has to be individualized. It’s likely that Trevor May, Paul Molitor, Thad Levine and Derek Falvey will have several conversations before spring training, and then throughout spring training. So there are two questions for the Twins Daily readers to consider: What do you think the Twins and May should decide?What do you think that the Twins and May will decide? Click here to view the article

I know...

And my original comment was saying that he has a pretty good track record with drafting hitters... nothing to do with world series rings or anything like that.

My bigger point is that he's drafted a lot of very good hitters since 1994... Of course, he was much more involved in the draft from 1987 through 1993 (Knoblauch, Hunter), when he was the scouting director. Maybe they're not Hall of Famers, but I would feel happy if I knew a GM whose teams drafted the likes of Todd Walker, Michael Cuddyer, Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Ben Revere, Trevor Plouffe, and Byron Buxton. One of them is a borderline Hall of Famer. There are a couple of 20+ WAR guys, and Buxton's well on his way. Yes, there are misses too, like all GMs. Matt Moses didn't pan out. Neither did BJ Garbe. But again, show me another GM that hasn't had some bad misses?

So... Umm... In the last ten years, 19 players "went into the Hall of Fame." The latest that a player was drafted who got into the Hall of Fame were Frank Thomas and Jeff Bagwell, who were drafted in 1989... So, of those 23 years, zero of them are Hall of Famers... Just math... and a 10-minute research session on Baseball-Reference.

I guess if Hall of Fame is the criteria for quality draft picks...

I think Terry Ryan and those under him did a very good job of drafting and developing hitters... I think that success is clear and there are many examples. I think that their ability to draft and develop starting pitchers has been an issue that's been brought up many, many times... So I am hopeful that the Falvine Era will find more success/luck.

Nope... he went on the Disabled List with what was called a shoulder impingement.

He was on an innings limit plan. He had been limited to five innings per start for a month or six weeks before he was shut down. He was shut down when he had kind of a dead arm. It's something where if it had happened in the middle of the season, he'd skip a start and be back out there. Since it was only one more start, and he was so close to a limit, they just shut him down.

That will be quite interesting. It might be worth a trip or three to Cedar Rapids early next season to find out. But think about all the prospects who should start the season in Cedar Rapids: Lewis, Javier, Kirilloff, Enlow, Baddoo, Miranda, Cabbage, and I Know I'm missing a couple of obvious ones too. Rortvedt could start there again.

Of course, Sano was 19-years-old for the first month+ that he was with Ft. Myers. Ortiz was 20. It's a good rate stat to look at, but it does need some context. Of course, Rooker only had about 5 weeks of pro ball under his belt when he did it whereas Sano and Ortiz were in their fourth seasons as professionals. Rooker is a terrific prospect, and his age doesn't bother me. He was a four-year college guy and he was in Ft. Myers five weeks into his pro career. As I've written before... that's very unusual... It was impressive enough for me to rank him 6th, ahead of four younger players that probably have a higher ceiling. So it's fair to say I'm pretty high on Rooker.

It’s been almost a month since I started posting my 2017 postseason Minnesota Twins Top 50 Prospect Rankings. There have been mini profiles on 45 players so far, and today you will find who my top five Twins prospects are. I certainly welcome your feedback and discussion. Prospects 6-10 were very young and very exciting. The same can be said of this group, though there are also a couple of guys that we should see in a Twins uniform during the 2018 season. If you’ve enjoyed these mini-profiles of 50 Twins prospects, you’ll definitely want to get a copy of the 2018 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook, which will be available in about a month. There will be bigger profiles on about 170 Twins prospects, along with stories, rankings and much more.Let’s get to my choices for the Top 5 Twins prospects. This is a very talented group, all of who have the ability to not only play in the big leagues but be strong, long-term contributors. Please feel free to discuss. (Note - there are links to the first seven parts of this series at the bottom) #5 OF Alex Kirilloff Yes, he missed the entire 2017 season because he had to have Tommy John surgery in early March. He had injured his arm late in the 2016 Elizabethton season but chose to rehab and hope. The Pittsburgh native was one of the best hitters in the 2016 draft when the Twins made him the 15th overall pick in the draft. He came in and hit very well in Elizabethton .He is a big, strong kid. He’s 6-1 and about 215 pounds. He is very sound mechanically at the plate. He’s a line drive hitter who uses the whole field, and he has tremendous power potential. He should be ready for Opening Day 2018, though the Twins will certainly not rush him back. Defensively, he will be a corner outfielder. He has the arm to play right field. He’s a good athlete with a lot of potential. He just turned 20 earlier this month. (Get to know Alex Kirilloff) photo by Jon Tarr #4 RHP Fernando Romero Fernando Romero missed two full seasons because of Tommy John surgery, but he came back throwing nearly 100 mph. He’s also got a sharp slider and an improved changeup that he worked on a lot in 2017. Romero will turn 23 on Christmas Eve. He was added to the Twins 40-man roster a year ago and spent the entire season at AA Chattanooga. He went 11-9 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. In 125.1 innings, he walked 45 and struck out 120 batters. While he’s just over 6-0 tall, he’s build very strong. He’s thick in the legs and the backside and that’s where he gets his big velocity from. The hope for Romero should be to get him to 155 to 160 innings. And he should see time in the big leagues too. photo by Seth Stohs #3 SS Nick Gordon I mean... Nick G Cinco is The Man... maybe that's where we should start: Nick Gordon was the Twins first pick in the 2014 draft, the fifth overall pick out of high school in Orlando. He began his career in Elizabethton and has moved up one level each year. Following the 2016 season, he played well in the Arizona Fall League. 2017 was another exciting season for the shortstop. He played very well in the season’s first half. He was named to the Southern League All-Star team (though the game was rained out). He started for Team USA in the Futures Game before the All-Star game. He struggled a bit in the second half. More important than all the accolades, he took strides in his game. He set season highs in nearly every statistical category including Isolated Discipline and Isolated Power. After hitting a combined five home runs in his first three seasons, he hit nine home runs for the Lookouts. Defensively, the questions remain for many of whether he will be able to stay at shortstop. He is also considered a leader by those who know him best. photo by Seth Stohs #2 LHP Stephen Gonsalves Gonsalves was the runner up to Jose Berrios for the Twins Daily Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year in 2015. In 2016, he was the choice for Starting Pitcher of the Year. Like Berrios, Gonsalves became a two-time winner when he was the choice again in 2017. His season began with an invitation to big league spring training where he had a solid showing until an injury arrived and cost him the first two months of the season. He returned to the Lookouts where he went 8-3 with a 2.68 ERA in 15 starts. He made three starts for Rochester at the end of the season. Gonsalves has a terrific mix of pitches. He has a good fastball in the 91-94 range. He throws a good changeup. He has really worked on his slider and it’s become a really good pitch. He also mixes in a cutter in some situations. He is poised and he is smart on the mound. He knows how to pitch. He was added to the 40-man roster this month. He should be given an opportunity to make starts for the Twins by mid-summer. photo by Seth Stohs #1 SS Royce Lewis Derek Falvey and Thad Levine came into an enviable situation. While the 2016 team lost 103 games, the organization was blessed with some young players with high ceilings. And, along with the worst record, they had the #1 overall pick in the 2017 draft. They had choices, and some really good choices. They could have taken a college pitcher like Kyle Wright. They could have taken a high school pitcher like Hunter Greene or MacKenzie Gore. They could have taken Brendan McKay who will pitch and may hit too. Instead, the Twins went with a high school shortstop from California named Royce Lewis with the Number One pick. And if early returns mean anything, they made a really, really good choice. After the Boras client signed, he was sent to Ft. Myers and spent about a month in the GCL. In 36 games there, he hit .271/.390/.414 (.804) with six doubles, two triples and three home runs. In a somewhat surprising move, Lewis finished the season with 18 games in Cedar Rapids. He hit .296/.363/.394 (.757) with two doubles, a triple and a home run. Combined, he stole 18 bases in 21 attempts. Lewis has all the tools, though since he will remain just 18 until June, he will need to work and continue to develop all of them. He has a good approach at the plate and knows the strike zone. He’s got a smooth, line-drive swing. He’s got good size and will continue to grow and gain strength and could develop good power. He’s got well above average speed. He can play defense. And the more people watched him, the more many believe that he could stay at shortstop, but he could play any position on the field. He’s got what’s called an average arm, but he can make all the throws he needs to. From everything we’ve heard about him or from him, he has tremendous makeup. It will be fun to watch how aggressive the Twins choose to be with him in 2018. He will likely start in Cedar Rapids, but could he work his way up to Ft. Myers by season’s end? It’s possible. photo by Jean Pfiefer --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So there you have it, my choices for Minnesota Twins Top 5 prospects and my Top 50 prospects. I certainly don’t expect everyone to agree with my choices… And, by the time the 2018 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook comes out, it’s likely it will change a little bit more. But it’s fun for discussion, and it’s fun to recognize fifty players who deserve to be talked about. So, please feel free to ask questions, leave comments and discuss these rankings. Part 1: Prospects 41-50 Part 2: Prospects 31-40 Part 3: Prospects 26-30 Part 4: Prospects 21-25 Part 5: Prospects 16-20 Part 6: Prospects 11-15 Part 7: Prospects: 6-10 Click here to view the article

I can't imagine there is any plan in which Brent Rooker is a 5th OF or backup 1B. My guess is whenever he's ready, they'll bring him up to start.

The Phil Miller article in Baseball American on Graterol said that he gained 60 pounds of muscle since signing. He wasn't 120 when he signed... He may not get taller, but he's strong.

That may be why he's #8 and not #4.

#9 missed a bit of time, though the season is fairly short, so it would have amounted to about two months if he had been with a full-season team at the time. #8 - Baddoo hasn't missed any time. #7 - Graterol did miss from June 2015 through the 2016 season.

Graterol is close, but I think you're right. I think he signed after the DSL season ended, so he shouldn't be Rule 5 eligible until after 2019...

Enlow probably needs to regain some of his velocity to move up too much more, but the curveball is exciting. I think he could start the season in Cedar Rapids... Maybe more likely, he starts at EST and comes up to Cedar Rapids in early June or something like that.

Kirilloff's got more power potential than Baddoo. He's significantly bigger. Now, no way to know how that will turn out. Baddoo took major strides between Year 1 and Year 2, got bigger, etc. He's a huge prospect... I'm not ready to put him ahead of Kirilloff, but I think some will.

I think anyone 1-15 on the list (and several beyond that) can play in the big leagues. I just think the guys in that 1-15 range have a chance to be starters/key contributors in the big leagues. Now, half of them are in Cedar Rapids or lower, meaning there is a lot of development to go, so that can always change, but this is a strong minor league organization, even without the elite prospects right now.

For me, absolutely. Dude can hit... he was solid as an 18-year-old in his pro debut. Tommy John isn't going to scare me much on a position player. He's younger than Rooker... The homeschooling thing doesn't concern me at all. He played all over the country in the national summer circuit. He played with a high school baseball team. He's spent the last year and a half in Ft. Myers and he's well liked by teammates. I'm comfortable having him ahead of Rooker and Baddoo... though it's close. For me, 5-11 are all really, really close.

Today we enter the Top 10 of Seth’s Minnesota Twins Prospect rankings today. At the bottom of this article, you can go back to see who ranked 11th - 50th, but this is a group of very young, very talented players (hitters and pitchers) who could be part of the next Twins core. A reminder, these are some mini-profiles. Please remember that Seth, Cody and Tom are currently completely engrossed in working on the 2018 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook. This is the 10th annual prospect handbook, so it should be special. There are well over 150 Twins minor leaguers profiled and much more. Something to remember. It will be available shortly after the holidays with much more information coming to Twins Daily. (Here are the previous Prospect Handbooks)Later in the week, we’ll finish this series of Seth’s Top 50 Twins prospects with the Top 5. But this group of five players is really young, immensely talented and it is incredibly exciting to think about what they could become. Let’s take a look at who Seth’s choices for Twins prospects 6-10 are. And when you’re done, be sure to discuss these players and let us know how they would rank for you. Are they in the right place? Too low? Too high? Let us know. #10 RHP Blayne Enlow Enlow went to St. Armant High School in Sorrento, Louisiana. After his junior season, he increased his draft ‘stock’ with a very strong showing nationally and internationally. He committed to LSU and let it be known that he would need a lot of money to give up that scholarship. While he was generally ranked as a top 25-30 prospect in the draft, he fell to Day 2. With the first pick of the third round, the Twins drafted him and he agreed to sign for $2 million. After signing, he went to the GCL and went 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA and a 0.69 WHIP. He worked just 20.1 innings, but he walked four and struck out 19. He’s 6-4 and 180 pounds. He sits 91-93 and touches 94. His best pitch is said to be his curveball. He also has a changeup, though it needs to be developed. He’s got potential to be a top starting pitcher. Get to know him. #9 SS Wander Javier Javier was the Twins big international signing in 2015. They signed the shortstop to a $4 million bonus, essentially using up their entire pool. He debuted in 2016 in the DSL, but a hamstring injury limited him to just nine games. However, of his eight hits, he had three doubles and two home runs. Javier is a toolshed full of talent. He’s long and lean, but he finds a way to barrel the ball a lot, and he’s able to drive the ball to all parts of the field. Defensively, most believe that he can stay at shortstop. While he had some errors in E-Town, he’s got good range, good hands and a strong arm. The Dominican is just 18 years old until the end of the year. #8 OF Akil Baddoo The Twins began the 2016 MLB draft by selecting four high school hitters in the first two rounds. Baddoo was the fourth. Drafted out of high school in Georgia, Baddoo is an incredible athlete. Last offseason, he gained 15 pounds of muscle and didn’t lose speed. His work paid off. He began the season back in the GCL, only until Brent Rooker moved from Elizabethton to Ft. Myers. When Baddoo joined the E-Twins, he energized their lineup. He led off and played centerfield. He hit .357/.478/.579 (1.057) in 33 games with 15 doubles, two triples and three homers. He’s got a great combination of power and speed. He’s also got a great approach at the plate. He just turned 19 in August. He was the Twins Daily choice for July Twins Minor League Player of the Month, and that helped lead him to the Short-Season Minor League Hitter of the Year. #7 RHP Brusdar Graterol Graterol signed with the Twins in August of 2014. He began his pro career in the DSL in 2015, but after just four starts, he came to the States to have his elbow checked. He required Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of the 2015 season and all of the 2016 season. He returned in 2017 and continued to work his way back in extended spring training. He made a few appearances in the GCL before moving up to Elizabethton for the end of the season. Overall, he was 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA. He had 45 strikeouts and 13 walks in his 40 innings. Despite all the missed time, he did not turn 19 until August. Graterol is a big, strong kid. He has a fastball that sits in the upper-90s and touches triple digits. He’s really worked on his secondary pitches as well. Graterol is immensely talented, but he’s still very raw and he’ll need to keep building his innings. Be patient, but he’s got a special arm. #6 OF/1B Brent Rooker The Twins used their 38th-round pick in 2016 on Brent Rooker. Rooker bet on himself and went back for his senior season. He talked to a lot of people and learned more about the art of hitting. He came back to Mississippi State and won the SEC’s Triple Crown, something that hadn’t been done in 30 years. The Twins drafted him again, this time with the 35th overall pick in 2017. After having over a month off, the Twins sent him to Elizabethton for a month to get back into the flow. He then jumped all the way up to Ft. Myers where he spent the final month with the Miracle. Combined, he hit 18 home runs, the most by a Twins minor leaguer in his first pro season since Paul Russo in 1990. His 11 home runs with the Miracle topped the ten that Todd Walker hit for the Miracle in his debut season of 1994. Rooker will strike out, but he can flat-out rake, and he could fly up the Twins system. He’s already been pushed in 2017, but he could be ready as early as later in 2018. The Twins want him to play the corner outfield positions, but he can also play first base. He will be 23-years-old throughout the 2018 season. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So there you have it, my choices for Twins prospects 6-10. This is an immensely talented group of young players. While this group does not have a lot of professional experience, they all have very high ceilings. 2018 will be a big year for all of them. Be sure to ask questions in the comments below, or debate where these guys would rank for you. Coming up later in the week, my choices for the Top 5 Twins Prospects. If you’ve missed any of the first six parts of my Top 50 Twins Prospects rankings, check them out here. Part 1: Prospects 41-50 Part 2: Prospects 31-40 Part 3: Prospects 26-30 Part 4: Prospects 21-25 Part 5: Prospects 16-20 Part 6: Prospects 11-15 Click here to view the article