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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    The OPQual stat has been around for a few seasons at least. I hadn't thought of interpreting it as a measure of the team's own evaluation of the player but it makes perfect sense.
  2. Willihammer
    Minor league FA, my mistake. Well maybe there is a competition then. I'll ask again, where does Darnell fit? He's had a good spring.
  3. Willihammer
    You're probably right. Crain comes to mind as a guy who was a tweak away though. One conversation with John Rauch and his career turned from Crainwreck to Gravy Crain.
  4. Willihammer
    All you need to know is Abad is a Rule 5 pick. He has the safest job on the team.
  5. Willihammer
    I think Tonkin is just a couple tweeks from being a decent reliever. Not a high leverage guy but a serviceable gap-filler to get a couple outs here and there. Swap the sinker for a 4 seem. Throw the slider more. Honestly what business does a reliever who throws 94-95 have with a sinker?
  6. Willihammer
    Darnell?
  7. Willihammer
    Ianetta and Ioki aren't going to turn a 76 win team into an 83 win team. The line seems based on the assumption of positive regression across the board, and considering the age of the best players on the team, that doesn't seem likely IMO. Under.
  8. Willihammer
    From Fangraphs 2015 trade value series: So yeah, as a pure rebuild play, a fair trade for Trout would be the entire farm plus all the suplemental picks, international bonus pool, and maybe you're getting close. Maybe they throw in Albert and pay for his entire contract to round it out. I really hope the Angels tank now.
  9. Willihammer
    I would be really curious to know how big of a factor the options were. Perhaps the Twins felt they could ill-afford for Hicks to go into another sub-.600 slump, and chose to move him for a guy they could afford to be patient with (due to options), and would not risk losing Hicks for nothing. If true, that would tell us a lot about their 2016 eval / expectations for the guy. Or maybe, they liked Murphy regardless of the roster flexibility he provides.
  10. Willihammer
    I'd take the under too. Thin rotation, thin bullpen, thin lineup, no farm. Poo-holes is 36. Stick a fork in Weaver and Wilson, they're done. Pretty easy to imagine things going south quick IMO.
  11. Willihammer
    I've run out of optimism with Mauer. Still, this spring, he keeps an open channel with umpires, constantly asking about strikes. That's not a good sign, is it? For the prolific OBP guy? Everything pulled is on the ground, everything oppo is a 275 footer to the left fielder. I can't imagine he'll do anything but continue declining this year.
  12. Willihammer
    Too far away from the mean to not take the over.
  13. Willihammer
    I like the Jays a lot. But, regression's a bitch. Under.
  14. Willihammer
    I get that. To complete the picture though, Hicks is definitely going to be an above average glove in the corner. Murphy's glove is much more of a question mark IMO. On another side note, the Gardner-Ellsbury-Hicks configuration is going to cover a lot of ground for the Yanks.
  15. Willihammer
    Good point. The system got so wildly out of balance that maybe it would be unrealistic to expect fair value for Hicks. Maybe I am too anxious after watching yesterday's game. Hicks was so solid (and has been all spring, at least at the plate) and Murphy was... unspectacular (and has been all spring). Must give it time...
  16. Willihammer
    I'm starting to worry the Twins got fleeced in that trade. Murphy looks like a slap hitter at best.
  17. Willihammer
    Yeah I was really hoping, naively I guess, that more of the kids would be stepping up. But that didn't seem to happen. Tonkin with another lousy performance. Meyer has done nothing too impressive. We're back to auditioning the dime-a-dozen Aaron Thompson, Buddy Boshers and Dan Runzlers of the world. Its impossible to imagine that bullpen without May in it anymore.
  18. Willihammer
    They already lost Bird, and he wasn't even old. There's definitely upside but with any kind of injury bug they could get thin on power awfully quick. Under for me.
  19. Willihammer
    I'd take the over too. They look like the 2nd best team in the division to me.
  20. Willihammer
    It is impossibly noisy IMO. The two-strike dynamic, the sac bunt angle, which in truth how many times are sac bunts 100% sacrifice? More like a semi-sacrifice I'd say, in most cases. Bottom line, a well placed bunt is a good tool to have in the back of your toolkit. It shouldn't be front and center like the Twins had with Gogo. There was an article on bunting I had read way back that attempted to put a finer understanding on the effectiveness of sac bunting and IIRC it included a stat that said something like 50% of PAs where a bunt was attempted at one point, the PA reached two strikes and the bunt attempt was abandoned. If you assume that was the case with Gogo, that would mean almost one in 5 PAs were a bunt atttempt. Obviously that was a terrible squandering of his power skill.
  21. Willihammer
    Sure, when he got it down. As I said the denominator only includes PAs which ended on bunt attempts. At least I assume that is the case. Maybe someone can correct me if that's not true. If true, any time he squared to bunt, and fouled the ball or missed, took a strike, etc. and found himself in a 2-strike count, would not be counted.
  22. Willihammer
    Bunting is fine, hitting is better. I hope the Twins are always challenging Buxton to hit the ball over the fence, and not think about dropping it 25 feet down the foul line like they did with Gogo. Pop quiz. How many of Gogo's PAs *ended* in the form of a bunt attempt? (this excludes the early- or mid-count bunt attempts before going to two-strikes because he failed to get the ball down) Of the 963 PAs he took as a Twin, EIGHTY EIGHT ended in a bunt attempt. By comparison, Andrew McCutchen has 12. For his career. I hope the Twins are serious about envisioning Buxton as a McCutchen type player.
  23. Willihammer
    I have to admit when I saw the first article in this series I was in shock and awe about the scope of it - ten players! But here we are. Kudos Jeremy.
  24. Willihammer
    Tonkin's average fastball velo is identical to Joaquin Benoit and Ryan Madson's. He has the arm strength. He does appear to throw a 2-seemer and/or sinker instead of a 4 seemer. And he throws his FB a lot- 74% of the time vs. 45% and 50% for Benoit and Madson. Personally I would ditch the 2 seemer in favor of a 4 seem with more rise. Forget ground balls, try to get popups and whiffs. And throw the slider more.
  25. Willihammer
    Could really care less about the exact $$ of a Sano extension. It should be a priority though, to lock up at least a couple FA years. Prospects like him don't come down the pipe very often at all. And the longer they wait, the harder its going to be to get done, barring injury, underperformance, etc.
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