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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17183 DRS gives credit (or blame) for plays where a shift is on. However Revere doesn't score great in that either (-4 for his career). So basically if Revere is getting burned (or helped) by shifts, it won't show up in his UZR one way or the other. But, what constitutes a shift for a CFer? I can't think of a single outfield shift. Mostly all they do is move in a little, move back a little, shade to the left, or shade to the right.
  2. Willihammer
    Caught stealing by the Mets' Anthony Recker. http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/73955164/v32995867/reckers-throw-tracked-by-mlbams-new-tracking-tech/?partnerId=as_nym_20140520_24288574 Still fast though. Had to be a perfect play to get him.
  3. Willihammer
    Puff piece on Toussaint: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/touki-toussaint-impresses-with-personality-arm?ymd=20140519&content_id=76006672&vkey=news_mlb
  4. Willihammer
    I liked Revere, I wanted to extend him. But he is stinking up the place this year, I wonder if something is wrong. I wouldn't write him off yet. The winner of the trade is still very much TBD.
  5. Willihammer
    Interesting what he has for Miami - Kolek, Rodon, or Jackson. The Marlins pick at 2, 36, 39, and 43. They've been linked to bats all spring. I think Houston has to take Kolek no. 1 for the home town factor. This would put Miami in a position of blowing no. 1 pick money to get Rodon. That wouldn't bankrupt them but could damper their options at 36, 39, and 43. So if Houston takes Kolek, I think the Fish might let the White Sox take Rodon and go underslot for a college bat like Zimmer or Pentecost. This of course would mean that one of Jackson or Aiken falls to the Twins. That's how I hope it goes anyway.
  6. Willihammer
    Simmons' 2013 will go down as one of the all time greatest seasons in history from a defensive standpoint. Its not reasonable to project that sort of upside year in and out, even from Simmons I think. Going back to 2007, JJ Hardy leads SS's with 103 runs saved. Not even 15 per year. Brendan Ryan is next at 80.5.
  7. Willihammer
    Yeah I'm not sure what preparation you can do for Hernandez. Its not fair. He can, and does, throw anything in any situation - for strikes.
  8. Willihammer
    An error needs "regular effort." Head and Shoulders Mauer is too cool to get his pants dirty though. Am I wrong?
  9. Willihammer
    blairpaul do you have a mancrush on Mauer or something?
  10. Willihammer
    Since the Mariners lost their Hart, are they now the Pirates?
  11. Willihammer
    That's the 2nd ball today Hicks has misjudged to the right side of the field.
  12. Willihammer
    Felix is throwing that curve with impunity
  13. Willihammer
    And then a big ﻼ
  14. Willihammer
    Who's coaching 3rd these days, Vavra? Evidently he distracted the 3rd base ump who couldn't verify that Hicks offered on the first pitch there.
  15. Willihammer
    IMO the question isn't "will Dozier turn into a pumpkin in his mid 30s." The question is, "will Dozier turn into a pumpkin during his arbitration years." I think the former is possible, maybe even likely. But Dozier is likely to continue producing through his arb years, I think. So by waiting, the Twins are setting themselves up to pay more dollars for years that are even more likely to be unproductive. Pay him now while the dollars and the risks are minimal. If he turns into a pumpkin on the back end, bfd.
  16. Willihammer
    I think/hope the Twins approach Dozier after midseason callups about an extension. Show an example for the kids - if you produce, you will get paid, sooner than later.
  17. Willihammer
    No, but from the following paragraph Fernandez is currently 21.290 years old - younger than Rodon and others on the list above. I understand there is a survivorship bias in play with the nexus theory. Its sorta why I think it makes sense that a 21.3 year old TJS-avoider will stand a greater chance of surviving than a 20.8 year old. Well talk to Jack Morris, Randy Johnson, Justin Verlander, etc. Obviously there are pitchers who throw hard and avoid the knife. I'm curious what you're getting at with the Dr. Andrews' "throw harder than 85 and you will break your UCL." Do you think the Twins target soft tossers?
  18. Willihammer
    Since reading Verducci's column last week, I went ahead and sorted college arms by age. If an indication of future elbow health is less about saving bullets than it is about reaching the cutoff age healthy (~24 years), then that has to be a factor too I think. [TABLE=width: 500] [TABLE=width: 248] Pitcher DOB Age Carlos Rodon[TD=align: right]12/10/1992 [TD=align: right]21.447[/TD] Jeff Hoffman[TD=align: right]1/8/1993[/TD] [TD=align: right]21.367[/TD] Nick Burdi[TD=align: right]1/19/1993[/TD] [TD=align: right]21.337[/TD] Erick Fedde[TD=align: right]2/25/1993[/TD] [TD=align: right]21.236[/TD] Jacob Lindgren[TD=align: right]3/12/1993[/TD] [TD=align: right]21.195[/TD] Brandon Finnegan[TD=align: right]4/14/1993[/TD] [TD=align: right]21.104[/TD] Sean Newcomb[TD=align: right]4/14/1993[/TD] [TD=align: right]21.104[/TD] Kyle Freeland[TD=align: right]5/14/1993[/TD] [TD=align: right]21.022[/TD] Tyler Beede[TD=align: right]5/23/1993[/TD] [TD=align: right]20.997[/TD] Aaron Nola[TD=align: right]6/4/1993[/TD] [TD=align: right]20.964[/TD] Chris Oliver[TD=align: right]7/8/1993[/TD] [TD=align: right]20.871[/TD] Luke Weaver[TD=align: right]8/21/1993[/TD] [TD=align: right]20.751[/TD] Matt Imhof[TD=align: right]10/26/1993[/TD] [TD=align: right]20.57[/TD] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TABLE] Of course, there's Hoffman right near the top. Maybe you can't really favor a 21.3 year old over a 20.5, I dunno.
  19. Willihammer
    Good writeup twinsfan but I don't think Hoffman was in play since he went under the knife. I do think if you squint at the Cape Cod numbers you can see a trend where the guys with extreme K/BB ratios have cracked the MLB to some degree of success (Saunders, Crow, Sale, and up and comers like Manaea and Cooney). But, plenty fizzled too.
  20. Willihammer
    Dogleg left or right?
  21. Willihammer
    I think, specifically, Hicks needs to address his 2 strike approach. He has 14 strikeouts swinging in 103 PAs, but he has 15 strikeouts looking. Same issue as last year. Keep the bat on your shoulder first pitch, sure. I'd even go so far as to make that a team rule. But with 2 strikes, be ready to swing!
  22. Willihammer
    Once again, I know HS batting stats are "worthless" but, I'll bring a few numbers to the conversation. Through April Gordon batted .508 with 9 doubles and 5 HRs (25 games) according to this: http://www.maxpreps.com/news/m79CgY2450eig_FL-t3kqw/nick-gordon,-daz-cameron-and-other-top-rated-sons-of-former-mlb-players.htm Good, but still not in Jackson or Chavis territory. I can't help but wonder if there's a worthwhile gamble in trying to convert a player with a more proven bat - Chavis, specifically, into a SS (or catcher), rather than cross your fingers and count on development bringing Gordon's bat up closer to their levels.
  23. Willihammer
    I'd love to see Medeiros fall to the Twins in the 2nd round. BA has him at 35 atm.
  24. Willihammer
    Another golden opportunity for Parmelee, glad to see him take advantage of it so far. Not a single strikeout looking. edit: Guess who didn't see the game yesterday? (He had two)
  25. Willihammer
    Strikeouts have gone up too. I think what you want to look at is BABIP. Its gone down a bit over the last 10 years but not by much. [TABLE=width: 128] [TD=width: 64, align: right]2005[/TD] [TD=width: 64, align: right]0.295[/TD] [TD=align: right]2006[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.301[/TD] [TD=align: right]2007[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.303[/TD] [TD=align: right]2008[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.300 [/TD] [TD=align: right]2009[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.299[/TD] [TD=align: right]2010[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.297[/TD] [TD=align: right]2011[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.295[/TD] [TD=align: right]2012[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.297[/TD] [TD=align: right]2013[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.297[/TD] [TD=align: right]2014[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.298[/TD] [/TABLE]
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