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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    That's why TR got Milone. Here's the thing with playing time and the Twins, as anyone who followed this franchise knows. Any player they've invested any chunkable amount of money in will get a bunch of PT regardless of results. Any player drafted highly who cracks the MLB club will get PT regardless of results. Any player acquired by giving up cost controlled players will get PT regardless of results. Not only that, but the Twins will try to bring that player back for more! (regardless of results)
  2. Willihammer
    I understand there's little risk financially but there is risk in wins and losses, which I'm much more concerned about as a fan, when the Twins pencil a mid to late 30s guy into their rotation. Pavano only cost 8.5 mil in 2012 and was in the final year of his contract but his disintegration was a significant component of the Twins turning in another 90 loss season and having the worst starting staff in the league that year
  3. Willihammer
    The Twins get Buehrle and if he doesn't implode in 2015 they will double down until he does. See Pavano. I'd love to see the Twins target a guy with a chance to turn into the next Cliff Lee or Max Scherzer. Maybe one of the Padres pitchers. Not a 1 year rental of Mark f-ing Buehrle.
  4. Willihammer
    I mean, Madden's a Hall of Fame coach. What more is there to say. The guy had a 20 year series of video games made after him. http://img1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20081022035028/egamia/images/0/0d/Madden90SNES.jpg
  5. Willihammer
    Yikes, looks pretty barren once you get past the major leaguers.
  6. Willihammer
    Yawn.
  7. Willihammer
    The exact value of a Win in free agency isn't at issue. Its in the 6-7m range, according to fangraphs last study. The question remains how do you determine what is a baseline replacement manager worth and how many more is Maddon above (or below) that level? We have no idea of what Win-value Maddon presents to teams looking for a new manager outside of the rumors that about 28/30 teams are interested in him right now.
  8. Willihammer
    What's the scoring environment like in the AFL? Is it a hitters league?
  9. Willihammer
    I don't think managers can be considered free agents in the same way players can. For starters, how many wins is a replacement level manager worth? How would you even measure? Pyth. W-L doesn't seem to be very enlightening. Does anyone really think Maddon is worth -4 wins compared to a replacement manager over his tenure? Other issues are that managers don't face the same age-related decline - they can manage into their 70s. This leads to an overabundance of candidates for only 30 jobs, certainly that skews the economics a long way from $7m/WAR.
  10. Willihammer
    Yeah but Maddon has thick rimmed glasses.
  11. Willihammer
    This would have been a great question for DSP
  12. Willihammer
    It seemed obvious Molitor was hired as bench coach to succeed Gardy. I think that remains Plan A. We've only heard good things about him. He is by all accounts an open minded, creative baseball mind. Liked by players.. Bring him back with Bruno, a new pitching coach, maybe a new catching coach, one or two more fresh faces. That would be enough to appease this fan.
  13. Willihammer
    "Ananymous" is a good word for Thielbar.
  14. Willihammer
    Yeah. And if they wind up hiring internally then really, what's the rush? Molitor already knows the system, the major leaguers and personnel.. Any rush would be so an outside hire could field a staff and get acquainted with the Twins, no? The prospect of that must be diminishing by the day.
  15. Willihammer
    My biggest pet peave: re-sign vs. resign. 99% of the time its clear from context but still, they are literally the opposite thing from each other.
  16. Willihammer
    What prompted the move? Was it Harrison's play or the overabundance of 3B options (Goodrum, Meija, Michael, etc). Does he have the glove to move back if the spot opens up again?
  17. Willihammer
    Yes they're free to waste roster spots on a whole new crop of injury bounceback candidates. I won't deny there's also risk in signing healthy productive players in free agency but certainly its less than hoping for a new guy to return to being healthy and productive year after year.
  18. Willihammer
    Here are the correct 2014 numbers Haren: 1yr/$10m, 32 starts, -0.6 WAR Santana: minor league contract, 0, 0 Johnson: 1 yr/$8m 0, 0 total: 2 yrs, $18m, 32 starts, -0.6 WAR All 3 bouncebacks were contingent on improving health, which is a horrible gamble with significant risk, esp. when guaranteed a roster spot. Likewise, Masterson's coming off a knee injury and decline in velo, and he'll require a 25 man spot to sign and guaranteed money, etc. Morrow made 6 starts and struggled with a forearm injury, and will also require a 25 man spot. Horrible gambles. If there were bounceback candidates that were perfectly healthy and due for statistical regression (as with AJ Burnett) or were identified as change of scene candidates (as with Hughes or Liriano), those might be worth pursuing -if not for the fact that there are at least 4-5 front of the rotation arms who logged no DL time last year and were extremely effective.
  19. Willihammer
    Yes you're right, my mistake. The Padres inked Johnson to a 1 year make good deal and by a stroke of luck he went down with TJS in April and didn't see the field.
  20. Willihammer
    Last year everyone wanted Santana, Haren, and Johnson (am I forgetting anyone?) on bounceback deals. Those players managed -2.1 WAR in 48 starts. 48!
  21. Willihammer
    I disagree. I think there's substantial risk in signing bounceback players. Kubel, Bartlett, Guerrier, are examples of how damaging those players can be when they don't bounce back (and they almost never do)
  22. Willihammer
    Certainly the better odds are with Scherzer, Lester, probably Maeda, on down? I'm just not interested in playing the maximum WAR/$ game this offseason. This is the third straight offseason where they have a blaring gap in the rotation and the reason its there is because of they missed playing this dumb game with, Pelfrey and Nolasco. Get the market consensus best guy, get the best odds for once.
  23. Willihammer
    How many games do we have to burn finding out? What if the guy starts out with a 6% K-rate but 0.75 ERA - as in, super lucky? Nobody gets benched for being super lucky.\ You can go back to the reclamation guys last year - Bartlett, Guerrier, Kubel... all had some previous success. I rode the Kubel bandwagon as hard as anyone. In retrospect, it would have been better to get surer things, where you can chalk up success to "matching expecatations" and not luck, and don't have to burn X and Y number of PAs and innings of regression before finally cutting the guy.
  24. Willihammer
    The fan in me hopes for at least one of 1. Scherzer 2. Maeda 3. Lester 4. Liriano 5. Santana The realist thinks next year's rotation was sorted out with the Fuld trade.
  25. Willihammer
    If GM's projected Wil Myers to go down a borderline HoF career track then the fan perspective is much more grounded in reality. You're also making light of the fact that somehow, even without Wil Myers, the Royals have arguably the best defensive outfield of all time - and decent bats too. That's another reason why the Buxton = Myers equation doesn't work (but I understand why he's the only spec you can use for purposes of the hypothetical). The Twins aren't nearly as loaded with outfielders.
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