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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Nice writeup, it is amazing how many mechanical issues boil down to footwork. I don't know if Hicks should keep switch hitting or not, I just hope he comes to sprint training with ears open and the goal of turning his career around, that would be a huge boost for this team.
  2. Willihammer
    No the Royals were favorites.
  3. Willihammer
    Fun fact, the Vegas underdog won every single series in the 2014 playoffs.
  4. Willihammer
    These ace debates are always frustrating because everyone has a different definition of ace. Are we talking about the top 10 starting pitchers? Top 30? But, its a pretty moot debate anyway. Phil Hughes was one of the top 10 starters in baseball last year. He is an ace IMO.
  5. Willihammer
    Seeing as the 2014 Royals had arguably the best defensive outfield of all time, no. I do think the Twins outfield will be better, and the Royals worse.
  6. Willihammer
    Huh, that must have been some kinda jam. I hope this isn't related to the wrist thing he battled last year.
  7. Willihammer
    There are two different points at issue - whether an ace, however you define that, is necessary to be a contender, and, whether lousy team must develop an ace from within. I think the latter is obviously untrue, just by looking back at teams that make the playoffs this decade - the 2014 O's, Royals, and Pirates being the most recent examples of teams who used to be lousy, then went out and got their #1's through trade or free agency. As for the first point, every fan would love for the Twins to have one of the best pitchers in the game. Luckily they do - Phil Hughes.
  8. Willihammer
    I kinda wonder what Moustakas is going to do after the playoff run he had.
  9. Willihammer
    I'm not convinced that's the magic formula (look at the 2014 Dodgers, or the Angels, or the Cardinals, or the A's...) but for sake of argument, was Hughes season worse than Bumgarners?
  10. Willihammer
    You don't need to look very far back to find counterexamples to that statement. The 2014 AL champs were fronted by a trade acquisition and 2 free agents. Similar story for the Pirates and O's. There are countless other playoff teams and World Series winners if you look back through the years. There are a lot of ways to put together a contender.
  11. Willihammer
    OK well by that standard of "regression" you should probably take Vargas out of your worse bucket since he batted .852 in the minors.
  12. Willihammer
    Santana's the big regression guy but he's also going to be 24 and entering his second year. There's room for improvement in his game even if he experiences a decline in BABIP. He certainly seems to have some talent, although I'm not sure how much. Ditto Escobar and Vargas. Really late last year (last week or so) Vargas flashed the good plate discipline that he showed in the minors. If that was the start of a trend, that will offset some (or all) BABIP regression. Also Suzuki settled into BABIP that was not far from his career norms. He's a regression candidate but not that huge of one.
  13. Willihammer
    I think he could improve with one or both of the following tweaks Ditch the 4 seemer in favor of the 2 seemer, a la Liriano, Burnett, and other Pirates pitchers (I believe this is why the Pirates targeted him, assuming there was any truth to the rumors). Stay with the 4 seemer but pitch up in the zone, not down, a la Phil Hughes. Right now, he's throwing the 4 seemer down and getting hit with that pitch. Check out his zone profile on fourseem fastballs:
  14. Willihammer
    I know the numbers don't scream ace but his stuff is electric. Big fastball, slider, curve. He will be 25 w/ 3 years of control remaining. Rumors out of Pittsburgh that the Pirates were trying to flip Alvarez for him but those evidently fell through. Marlins now looking at Morse. According to one Pirates blog the Marlins prefer a LH batter though.
  15. Willihammer
    Should the Twins package Vargas for him? http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/east-notes-melky-heaney-murphy-victorino.html
  16. Willihammer
    Every winter I'm disappointed so many fans say the Twins won't contend. How do you know? Is it Steamer? Have you tallied the Steamer WARs and concluded the Twins cant contend? Because, the reigning World Series champs didn't have the highest WAR, not close. Or, are you all able to predict the future?
  17. Willihammer
    Well, when the "promote Meyer" club was banging their drum in mid-July last year, we were told his fastball command and changeup weren't up to snuff.
  18. Willihammer
    Can't find the quote but a few weeks ago TR was asked about Nolasco and his answer was basically "don't assume he is going to be in the rotation."
  19. Willihammer
    Gah that graphs is awful. Thank Christ, a move like this is a long time coming.
  20. Willihammer
    The Giants got 2.8 rWAR from $54 million spent in free agency last year and won the World Series. edit: Oh and that's not the first time the Giants won with dead weight on the books. Remember Barry Zito, that horrible 7 year contract and the TWO World Series he won in the final 4 years of it?
  21. Willihammer
    Clearly teams are more than the sum of their WAR. The World Series champs evidence that. Last year, 76 wins and nowhere near the playoffs. They went out and got Tim Hudson and Mike Morse, two players who combined for 2.7 WAR in 2014. Meanwhile, Cain got hurt. Lincecum went from bad to worse - two draft products. As a team, the Giants WAR actually dropped by 1.4 in 2014, and yet, they won 12 more games and the World Series. This notion of incremental improvement is such an oversimplification. Nothing is static in baseball. Iinjuries happen, players get better, players get older, players get worse, players get smarter, players get concussed, coaches change, philosophies change, umpires change, etc. Way too many other variables to just tally the previous year's win total, add x-projected WAR of FA y, and say "the money for this guy won't move the needle. Not worth it." Rubbish. Get the best players you can, every year. Give yourself the best chance, every year. Then play the games and see what happens.
  22. Willihammer
    Your projection of the 5 spot + Steamer works out to a 4.42 ERA from the rotation, compared to 5.06 they got last year. Progress. Personally I think Milone will displace Nolasco and May will get the nod in the 5 spot, and both will be better than the 5.00 ERA you estimated here.
  23. Willihammer
    This is the best news in a long time. At the same time, the Twins had to make a splash just to keep up with everyone else. Definitely a good start.
  24. Willihammer
    !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  25. Willihammer
    They used 12 starters last year. Two of the initial 5 got hurt before the end of April. One stunk and got traded. Only Gibson and Hughes managed 30 starts. Maybe the Twins could have given some fill-in starts to Meyer or Berrios instead of Pino or Swarzak, but they didn't and I don't want to risk an entire season by slotting question marks into the starting rotation. Let them start in the pen get their shot when someone inevitably goes down. As far as Meyer goes, do people remember how he finished the year? I would consider any MLB production out of him in 2015 to be a surprise and a bonus.
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