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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Seems there might be something to TK's theory about HBPs http://www.fangraphs.com/community/rising-hbp-rates-seeing-the-symptom-seeking-the-cause/
  2. Willihammer
    Interesting. Any theories as to why UZR says Jones was an above average LF and CF but a below average RF?
  3. Willihammer
    I've asked before about TF's 23 foot RF wall and its impact on UZR scores. If I understand you correctly, any balls that bang off it will (unfairly) penalize the RF's UZR score the same way Jones' UZR was hurt by the baggie. Something to consider when talking about the quality of the Twins RF defense.
  4. Willihammer
    I get that. But, would it surprise you if this particular group of married ballplayers did?
  5. Willihammer
    This is slightly cathartic but I have Another theory. What do Mauer, Dozier, Plouffe, Suzuki, Perkins, Duensing, Gibson, Hicks, Swarzak, Willingham, and Correia have in common? They're all married. Nolasco isn't married. New city, doesn't know anyone. Bunch of cash (this part isn't cathartic). 1 day a week work schedule. And all his bros head straight home lights out by 12. Bor-ing!
  6. Willihammer
    IMO you're underrating Sano's ceiling, by a lot. What he did in 2013 from a power perspective was around 4 standard deviations above the mean compared to all minor leaguers for his age-level between 1994-2005. Four. It was an outlier. Therefore I'd say his ceiling, in terms of HRs/year, has the potential to be an outlier too. 30 HRs would not be an outlier.
  7. Willihammer
    I would also put Sano #1 if I made a list. Its impossible to put a cap on what kind of slugger he could be since there's basically no precedent for the type of production he put up in 2013
  8. Willihammer
    Its not a great batting average. I think I hear 20 Jeremy Mesersmiths for every one Radiohead song.
  9. Willihammer
    Yes literally they will play white males with a guitar as long as all licks and solos and noise have been watered out of it. Which is not my thing personally. I don't hate the Current, because its playlist is for the most part unique. Actually the best station, during the week, is KMOJ (on Sundays its gospel). Long stretches of interruption free music and almost no overlap with other stations' playlists. But the signal's weak and, personally, I hate all the music on there.
  10. Willihammer
    Music is obviously a subjective thing but this market is the worst. The entire middle swatch of the dial is the same damn station.
  11. Willihammer
    I always found the playlist to be horribly girly and local. Its almost like they refuse to play anything written by a white male with an electric guitar from the past 25 years. But I'm probably not their target demo.
  12. Willihammer
    With the recent launch of Alt 93.3 the Twin Cities' FM dial has reached a new height of incest. The channel couldn't be more ironically named, as proven by its position in this ven diagram depicting station playlists
  13. Willihammer
    In my mind Mussina was kinda the Halladay before Halladay. Funky straight arm delivery. Threw about 12 different flavors of junk, nothing straight. If he was a lefty they would have called it "cunning and guile." One of these guys who you are reading the paper one day and looking at the AL pitching leaders and there's Mussina among the top in ERA and IP and then you realize you've seen his name there every year for the past 10 years. A no doubt HoFer in my mind.
  14. Willihammer
    July 18, Torii's b-day
  15. Willihammer
    Personally I would not be surprised if the league's adjustment to him was "stop throwing this guy a hittable strike" and his walks shoot up. Yeah he had a high BABIP but he also recorded the hardest hit ball of the season. If you crush balls you're going to have a high BABIP. Switch hitter, seems to keep his bat through the zone a long time. I think he's the real deal. edit: Looked up his BABIP in the minor leagues. It was .380. For comparison, Mauer, who's always had a high LD% with an above average BABIP, was .367 in his minor league career.
  16. Willihammer
    I understand the need for depth in the bullpen - there's no quicker way to start a dumpster fire with fans than for the bullpen to blow winnable games. But I keep thinking back to the draft and pick after pick being high velocity college relievers. Hope those guys have some bullets left if/when they ever make it to the Twins. The shelf life seems to be short with those guys pretty often.
  17. Willihammer
    I would have said Arcia but the fact that his back has been bothering him for the better part of a year is pretty worrying. I am stoked about all 3, but I think Pinto may be the best hitter next year while Vargas and Santana could take some lumps.
  18. Willihammer
    Right, magic numbers don't seem to matter as much except the guys who have them are mostly PED users and that's what's penalizing their HoF candidacies. Among "clean" players, Biggio has the 3000 hit box checked, whereas none of the "clean" batters (Piazza, Edgar, McGriff, Bagwell, for arguments sake), has either 3000 hits or 500 HRs. Maybe I'm reading too much into that. Separately, with all the haboo from a crowd in the BBWAA to expand the number of votes from 10 to 12, did anyone divide the total votes cast by the number of ballots? The result is 8.42, meaning the average voter isn't even using all 10 votes. Thought that was interesting.
  19. Willihammer
    I agree he has a strong case anyway. But Biggio's case is no stronger than a lot of other guys on the ballot, some of which have been going 5+ years now (Bagwell, Walker, McGriff, Martinez). Similar story with Smoltz in a way. He has a strong case but I would have probably voted Mussina and Schilling if forced to choose. The results indicate that some writers might have opted for the conventional threshold counting stats and accolades (CYA) that's required to put a guy in the Hall.
  20. Willihammer
    IMO Biggio getting in before some of the other guys seems like evidence there are some voters still voting on plateau stats, eg. 3000 hits.
  21. Willihammer
    Its the biggest deal for a setup guy, but there's precedent. Crain setup Nathan for a couple years before signging a 3 year deal with the Whities. Benoit signed a big 3 year deal that same offseason IIRC. The point is unchanged. Using relievers based on performance and leverage, and rest, makes more sense, at least on paper, than giving them titles and reserving super specific jobs for them.
  22. Willihammer
    Setup men are definitely in the same conversation. See Andrew Miller and his 4/36 contract without a single save last year. edit: setup men aren't yet in the HoF conversation but they're in the money / status conversation for sure.
  23. Willihammer
    Its so annoying. Does anyone trust Glen Perkins or Fien anymore? Both seemed pretty wasted at the end of the season if you ask me, and the Twins didn't even give them that many hold and save opportunities! What if they have more leads next year! They will have to change things up. Its not just a Gardy quirk that Molitor is automatically going to change either. Everyone does it, there is money tied into the "save" and "hold" stats and probably a clubhouse chemistry aspect too. But IMO managers should pay more atttention to leverage, matchups, and regulating the workload of guys evenly over the season, and pay less attention to the "hold" or "save" stats which probably don't help with the longevity of a bullpen down the stretch, especially if your team is any good.
  24. Willihammer
    Interesting read. I don't think many would like to see Dozier extended through age 33, at least, not for guaranteed money. An extension through his arb years with team option(s) for the FA year could be team-friendly, if he ages well. Arb raises are going to happen, unless he falls off a cliff in his age 28-29 seasons, and of course free agency after that will be a bigger raise yet if he stays healthy/productive. The price of an extension at this point would be, I believe, quite cheap. On the other hand, his arb raises aren't likely to skyrocket into the 12-15m range, probably, so the savings might not be significant, depending on what payroll contraints the team faces in 2-3 years. There are reasons to consider both approaches, and projected decline through age 31 or so should definitely factor.
  25. Willihammer
    I look forward to more Arcia and Pinto in 2015 as well. Lots of young bats on the roster that could breakout in 2015.
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