Nick Nelson

COVID cancellations, key players sidelined by injuries, and several crushing losses: It was a rough week for Twins baseball. Let's review it, and try to figure out where we go from here. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/12 through Sun, 4/18 *** Record Last Week: 1-4 (Overall: 6-8) Run Differential Last Week: -15 (Overall: +6) Standing: 4th Place in AL Central Last Week's Game Recaps: Game 10 | BOS 4, MIN 2: More Missed Opportunities, Another Blown LeadGame 11 | BOS 3, MIN 2: Twins Swept by Red Sox, Slip Deeper Into SlumpGame 12 | BOS 7, MIN 1: Twins Swept by Red Sox, Slip Deeper Into SlumpGame 13 | MIN 4, BOS 3: Twins Snap Losing Streak Despite Another Blown LeadGame 14 | LAA 10, MIN 3: Upton Slam Sinks Struggling TwinsNEWS & NOTES Lest anyone thought we'd moved beyond the dangers and disruptions of a global pandemic, this past week for the Twins served as a sobering reminder that COVID-19 is very much still raging in our society, and pro sports are not immune (especially when partially-distributed vaccinations have yet to take full effect). On Wednesday, Andrelton Simmons tested positive and was placed on the COVID-19 IL. The following two days were both thrown into doubt as chaos ensued with pre-game false positives, and on Saturday, mounting fears came to roost. The Twins registered multiple positive tests in their Tier-1 group (including Kyle Garlick and another as-yet-unnamed player), shutting down the rest of their series against the Angels and leaving the upcoming trip to Oakland in limbo. Outside of the virus outbreak, the Twins had some other high-profile health issues. As soon as Josh Donaldson returned from his hamstring injury, Byron Buxton suffered one of his own, sitting out four straight games from Wednesday through Friday with what was described as a minor strain. So far, in a season where we were all so eager to see those two together in the lineup, it hasn't really happened yet. On the bright side, Buxton was slated to play on Saturday night before the game was axed, so he should be fine once the Twins get going again. Perhaps the extra time off for his legs will be a hidden silver lining of an extremely unfortunate situation. In other roster moves, the carousel at the end of the bullpen is already spinning, as expected. Brandon Waddell was optioned on Wednesday to make room for Donaldson. The next day, Cody Stashak was optioned and replaced for one game by Shaun Anderson, who was himself sent out the following day to make room for Friday night's starter Lewis Thorpe. Thorpe went back down after making his spot start, with Devin Smeltzer arriving to fill in as long reliever. It's probably just gonna be like this all year for the relief corps. Buckle up. HIGHLIGHTS In a week sparse on highlights and happy moments, Michael Pineda came through in a big way. His seven shutout innings against Boston on Thursday helped the Twins secure their only victory of the week, avoiding a sweep at home. In his finest start yet as a Twin, Big Mike cruised through seven frames on 88 pitches, striking out six and walking one with two singles allowed. A red-hot Boston lineup could never really mount a threat against Pineda as he pounded the zone with quality fastballs and then attacked with sharp sliders. LOWLIGHTS Aside from the smattering of encouraging developments above, the past seven days were a flurry of almost nonstop bad news for the Twins, both on the field and off it. The gravity of the latter outweighs the former so heavily, it feels pointless to pick apart individual performances in an almost universally ugly 1-4 stretch. Suffice to say that the offense as a whole slashed .228/.316/.282 with five doubles, one home run, and 12 runs scored in five games. With runners in scoring position they put up a putrid .175/.271/.200 line. Meanwhile, the bullpen posted a collective 9.19 ERA, with almost every reliever taking part in a series of poorly-timed implosions. Rocco Baldelli made a number of borderline decisions, and basically every one went the wrong way. With all that's going on, I find it difficult to hold these struggles against the manager or team. Beginning with Simmons on Wednesday, the Twins dealt with an endless onslaught of stress and drama, sparked by positive tests both legitimate and illegitimate. Beyond the mental distractions stemming from all this, the ability of players to prepare for games and go through normal routines was impeded. It's all bad. You just hope they can use this immense challenge as an opportunity to come together, rest up, and hit the ground running as they seek to turn around one of the most confounding team-wide slumps of Baldelli's tenure. More than anything, you hope there's no further spread, and that all who've been affected by this outbreak can recover quickly and fully. TRENDING STORYLINE Obviously, the overarching and all-consuming storyline is: when will the Twins play again? But within that, the status and outlook for Alex Kirilloff becomes a pivotal thread. Kirilloff came and went quickly on Thursday, joining as 27th man for the doubleheader and taking three hitless plate appearances before returning to the alternate site. But there's certainly an argument the Twins could've benefited from keeping him around, given the wavering availability of Buxton and the ongoing struggles of Jake Cave. One way or another, it's only a matter of time. Within the next few days, and perhaps before the team even plays again, Kirilloff will reach the point where it becomes impossible for him to accrue a full year of major-league service this season, meaning there's no reason to keep him down unless the Twins don't think he's ready or don't think he can help. That's becoming a tougher and tougher case to make, especially since they know they'll be without Garlick (at least) for some time. LOOKING AHEAD With Monday's series opener in Oakland already canceled, the tentative plan is for a traditional doubleheader on Tuesday – the second in a weeklong span for the Twins. Keyword: tentative. If they play then, it's anyone's guess how they might handle their rotation. Matt Shoemaker was due up on Saturday but with all the days off, the Twins have the option to skip him and J.A. Happ, starting both José Berríos and Kenta Maeda on five days rest. Then again, everyone needs their work and there's nothing wrong with getting the top two arms a little extra rest here early in the season. So I'd expect Shoemaker and Happ to start on Tuesday. Next weekend the Twins are scheduled to return home for a quick one-off series against the Pirates, but with Minneapolis bracing for the potential fallout of a verdict in the Derek Chauvin murder trial in the days ahead, that series carries its own cloud of uncertainty. Stay tuned and we'll keep you updated on things as they develop. But be ready for a weird week. TUESDAY, 4/20 (G1): TWINS @ ATHLETICS – TBD v. RHP Jesus Luzardo TUESDAY, 4/20 (G2): TWINS @ ATHLETICS – TBD v. LHP Sean Manaea WEDNESDAY, 4/21: TWINS @ ATHLETICS – TBD v. RHP Frankie Montas FRIDAY, 4/23: PIRATES @ TWINS – RHP Trevor Cahill v. TBD SATURDAY, 4/24: PIRATES @ TWINS – RHP Chad Kuhl v. TBD SUNDAY, 4/25: PIRATES @ TWINS – LHP Tyler Anderson v. TBD MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

They say first impressions last. That would seem to be the only explanation for Rocco Baldelli's enduring and unwavering faith in Jorge Polanco as an exceptional hitter, despite mounting evidence that says otherwise. At what point will the ever-analytical manager just accept the data?Look, I understand why Baldelli would have built up some confidence in Polanco's offensive abilities. During Rocco's first few months as manager of the Twins, Jorge was a monster. Through the end of May in 2019, he was slashing .338/.409/.590, which consequentially earned him a starting nod on the All-Star team. That's absolutely the kind of guy you want near the top of your lineup. Since then, however, Polanco has been a completely average hitter. Even that description might be generous. In 164 games since June 1st, 2019, he has a .260/.313/.393 slash line and .303 wOBA. In his career prior to 2019, he slashed .272/.329/.420 with a .323 wOBA, which is better of course but still not by any means exceptional. Not the kind of guy you want near the top of your lineup. And yet. Here's the number of times Rocco Baldelli, in 232 regular-season games at the helm, has ever batted Jorge Polanco anywhere below fourth in the lineup: seven. They all came at the end of last year, when a blatantly-hobbled Polanco finally hit sixth (3x), seventh (3x) and eighth (1x) in Baldelli's lineups in the final weeks. Jorge also batted seventh in both playoff games, and went 1-for-7 with a single. It appeared perhaps Baldelli's long-standing faith in Polanco as a hitter was wavering. But this year, following another offseason ankle surgery, the confidence is apparently restored. Polanco's batted second (5x), first (2x), fourth (2x) or third (1x) in every game so far, and has yet to sit one out. (Granted he was scheduled to do so on Monday before the postponement.) As a result of hitting so frequently and highly in a very productive offense, Polanco entered this week leading the American League in at-bats. Meanwhile, he has shown no signs of rebounding from a dismal 2020 campaign. Polanco looks terrible at the plate. He's slashing a miserable .119/.191/.167 and the advanced metrics back up the brutal results. Download attachment: polancostatcast.png An accumulating preponderance of evidence suggests that Polanco is a mediocre hitter who belongs near the bottom of the Twins lineup, much like Andrelton Simmons (who, by the way .268/.334/.348 with a .301 wOBA since 6/1/2019 – almost identical to Polanco). A couple of things bear noting here. One is that Baldelli had Polanco lined up to bat fifth on Tuesday before Nelson Cruz pulled out pre-game due to illness. That's still a pretty critical spot, hitting behind Cruz and Mitch Garver against a lefty, but it's further down than a healthy Polanco has ever batted under Baldelli. So maybe we're seeing some slight signs of diminishing faith. There's also the fact that injuries and poor performance have led to a lack of competition for Polanco at these key spots. But Josh Donaldson is about to return from the Injured List, and I believe Baldelli will soon start finding it hard to place Luis Arraez at the bottom of the order even against left-handers. In the near future, one longstanding pattern is going to have to snap: either Polanco will prove he's a far better hitter than he's shown over the past season's worth of games, or Baldelli will need to stop operating as if he is. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

The game outcomes were disappointing in a 3-3 stretch marked by late-game lapses, but the biggest story of the first full week Twins action in 2021 was Byron Buxton and his relentless dominance. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/5 through Sun, 4/11 *** Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 5-4) Run Differential Last Week: +14 (Overall: +21) Standing: T-2nd Place in AL Central Last Week's Game Recaps: Game 4 | MIN 15, DET 6: Cruz Leads Trouncing of TigersGame 5 | DET 4, MIN 3: Twins Fail to Execute in ExtrasGame 6 | MIN 3, DET 2: Colomé Holds on for 6-Out SaveGame 7 | MIN 10, SEA 2: Twins Treat Returning Fans With Dominant VictoryGame 8 | SEA 4, MIN 3: Another Loss in Extra InningsGame 9 | SEA 8, MIN 6: Mariners Score Eight Unanswered Runs NEWS & NOTES It's been a rough go for Brent Rooker. The slugging prospect looked quite good upon arriving in the major leagues last year, but broke his arm on an HBP in just his seventh game. This spring he missed out on a roster spot that many expected him to claim, with left field open, but quickly got his chance when Josh Donaldson went down in the opener. Unfortunately, Rooker just never looked right, going 1-for-11 with six strikeouts before being placed on the Injured List with a cervical strain ahead of Wednesday's game. Brandon Waddell replaced him on the roster, adding a 14th reliever. HIGHLIGHTS It is all coming together for Byron Buxton. We've seen torrid stretches from the center fielder before, but never in his career has he been so visibly confident, casual, and carefree while straight-up obliterating the competition. He looks like a fully-realized Neo in The Matrix right now, seeing ones and zeros. It's magical. Last week Buxton went 10-for-19 with three home runs and three doubles, lifting his seasonal hitting line to a hysterical .481/.548/1.185 while cementing his status as bona fide cleanup hitter. It sounds like there's a very real chance he'll rejoin the team this week, if not on Monday. With Miguel Sanó, Jorge Polanco, and basically everyone who sets foot in left field failing to do much offensively, the lineup could use JD's boost. LOOKING AHEAD The first full-slate week of the season is on tap, with seven games in seven days. First, the Twins will welcome the Red Sox for four at Target Field. Then it's off to Southern California for three against the Angels. It's unclear whether Shohei Ohtani, who missed his last start with a blister, might be ready to take the mound in one of those contests. MONDAY, 4/12: RED SOX @ TWINS – LHP Martin Perez v. LHP J.A. Happ TUESDAY, 4/13: RED SOX @ TWINS – RHP Nathan Eovaldi v. RHP Kenta Maeda WEDNESDAY, 4/14: RED SOX @ TWINS – LHP Eduardo Rodriguez v. RHP Jose Berrios THURSDAY, 4/15: RED SOX @ TWINS – RHP Garrett Richards v. RHP Michael Pineda FRIDAY, 4/16: TWINS @ ANGELS – RHP Matt Shoemaker v. TBD SATURDAY, 4/17: TWINS @ ANGELS – LHP J.A. Happ v. TBD SUNDAY, 4/11: TWINS @ ANGELS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. TBD MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Coming into this 2021 season, there was much bluster about Major League Baseball's attempts to deaden its baseball. Nelson Cruz was even asked about it. How silly he and a Twins teammate are making those efforts seem in the early going.When asked ahead of spring training if he was concerned about reported alterations to the baseball, and their impact on his production, Cruz gave a perfectly logical answer: "That's gonna be for every hitter. If they were gonna keep it only for myself, yeah, I'd be worried, but that's everybody. I'll be good." So far in this young season, it does kinda seem like Cruz is hitting a different kind of baseball than everyone else. But not in the way he intimated. The 40-year-old DH was raring to go after sitting out much of the opening series. In the second at-bat of his first start of the season, Monday in Detroit, Cruz launched a grand slam that traveled out of the yard at 114.6 MPH. The return of baseball itself is itself a shock to the system, but if you feel like what you've been seeing from these Twins hitters at the plate is extraordinary, you're not wrong. Within the first five games of the season, this team is already doing eye-popping things. Cruz and Buxton are leading the charge by decimating balls in unprecedented fashion. So, with all that said, I can't really speak much to the efficacy of MLB's efforts to deaden the baseball. But I can say with certainty that a few of those baseballs are dead now. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Twins baseball is back, and that means so too is our season-long Sunday night tradition of reviewing the week that was. Here's a rundown of the highlights and lowlights from opening weekend in Milwaukee, where the Twins took two of three from the Brewers, as well as a look ahead to what's coming in the season's first full week. Weekly Snapshot: Thurs, 4/1 through Sun, 4/4 *** Record Last Week: 2-1 (Overall: 2-1) Run Differential Last Week: +7 (Overall: +7) Standing: T-1st Place in AL Central Last Week's Game Recaps: Game 1 | MIL 6, MIN 5: Twins Blow 3-Run Lead in 9th InningGame 2 | MIN 2, MIL 0: Take a Bow, José BerríosGame 3 | MIN 8, MIL 2: Arraez Reaches 5 Times, Twins Take Series NEWS & NOTES An opening series victory in Milwaukee brought plenty of glowing positives, but also a familiar feeling of dread as Minnesota's two most critical players – Josh Donaldson and Byron Buxton – still can't seem to stay on the field. Donaldson made it through only one plate appearance before his balky legs acted up once again. A tight hamstring disrupted his stride while he rounded first base on a double in Thursday's opener, and Donaldson was removed before taking the field at third base. The diagnosis is relatively encouraging, in that it wasn't calf-related and the Twins emphasized the "mild" nature of the injury ... but still. This is a gutting development right off the bat. While they weren't quite as overwhelmingly impressive, Kenta Maeda and Michael Pineda also deserve credit for high-caliber first turns in the rotation. The fielders behind them weren't always helpful (more on that in a moment), and Maeda especially was not at his sharpest, but both starters were effective, combining to allow just one earned run in 9 ⅓ innings with 10 strikeouts. The path to a 100-win season for the Twins this year lies in getting consistently strong starting pitching, day in day out, and letting the rest take care of itself. So far, so good on that front. LOWLIGHTS The Twins revamped their roster during the offseason with a clear objective in mind: upgrade to a world-class defense that can uplift the pitching staff and cut down on costly miscues. So far, not so good on that front. The series in Milwaukee featured a medley of gaffes and blunders. Andrelton Simmons dropped a force-out thrown right into his glove. Jorge Polanco muffed a routine grounder. Alex Colomé committed a mental and physical error with a wayward throw to second on Thursday. Later that inning, Kepler failed to secure a deep drive to right despite getting leather on it. Certainly not the hallmarks of a stalwart defensive club, although it's wise not to overreact at this stage, and there were some nifty plays mixed in as well. The disappointing glovework, and Colomé's ninth-inning meltdown in the opener, were really the only significant rough spots in this series, since the Twins outplayed Milwaukee quite thoroughly otherwise. TRENDING STORYLINE We've gotten past the known commodities in the Twins rotation. Maeda, Berríos and Pineda all looked good, but that's nothing new. They powered this starting staff to stellar results last year. Now, we'll get a look at the new guys. Matt Shoemaker is set to make his Twins debut on Monday, followed by J.A. Happ on Tuesday. Shoemaker will be looking to shake off a rough spring, where he posted a 6.57 ERA and allowed four homers in 12 ⅓ innings, while Happ will be looking to go as deep as he can following a COVID-shortened ramp-up. Expect to see some Randy Dobnak in the days ahead, and possibly some roster moves (position player out, pitcher in?) as the Twins aim to keep fresh arms stocked while escaping from NL rules. LOOKING AHEAD With interleague play in the rearview (for now), the Twins will welcome Cruz back to their starting lineup on Monday in Detroit, where they kick off a three-game series against the worst team in the division. Of note: in an early-season scheduling quirk, all three games at Detroit are noon starts. On Thursday, Target Field will welcome back fans for the first time in 18 months. It promises to be a very special occasion. With six games on tap against two of the worst teams in the league, this should hopefully be a chance for the Twins to flex their muscles a bit. MONDAY, 4/5: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Matt Shoemaker v. RHP Jose Urena TUESDAY, 4/6: TWINS @ TIGERS – LHP J.A. Happ v. RHP Casey Mize WEDNESDAY, 4/7: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. LHP Matthew Boyd THURSDAY, 4/8: MARINERS @ TWINS – LHP Marco Gonzales v. RHP Jose Berrios SATURDAY, 4/10: MARINERS @ TWINS – RHP Yusei Kikuchi v. RHP Michael Pineda SUNDAY, 4/11: MARINERS @ TWINS – RHP Chris Flexen v. RHP Matt Shoemaker MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Today, a new season of Minnesota Twins baseball gets underway. While 2021 won't represent a full return to normalcy in baseball, it figures to be a big step in that direction. Can the Twins take a big step of their own and get over the hump in October? First, they'll need to fend off a challenge in the Central from a familiar and formidable foe.The 2020 MLB season will be mostly looked back upon as an anomaly – an abbreviated 60-game sprint, played out before empty ballparks, leading up to a hugely expanded playoff field. It was an odd, warped year of baseball that nonetheless produced a worthy champion. For the Twins and their fans, 2020 season was fun, yet unfulfilling. The team played .600 ball and won the division (or more accurately, Chicago lost the division), then went out with a whimper in the postseason. With 18 consecutive playoff losses in tow, Minnesota's directive in 2021 is crystal-clear. But that's putting the cart before the horse. They need to get to the dance before they can step onto the floor, and unlike last year, reaching the postseason will be no mere formality for quality teams. Having added a frontline starter and elite reliever to their emerging squad, the White Sox are favored by bettors to win the Central, and are feeling plenty confident for their part. That's nice and all, but the Twins are favored by most projection systems, including the latest forecast from Five Thirty Eight, a stats & analytics super-site. Their algorithm gives Minnesota a substantial advantage in the AL Central with a 64% chance to make the playoffs and 47% chance to win the division. Download attachment: 538forecast.JPG The White Sox have plenty of hype, and rightfully so. They're a talented young team coming off a breakout year, bolstered by big-name offseason additions. But until further notice, this division belongs to the two-time defending champs, and Chicago will need to get past the Twins. Projections and bettings odds are fun and all, but it's time to let it play out on the field. Here's the roster Minnesota is bringing to battle out of the gates: Download attachment: openingdayroster.png It's a deep and balanced group, which is also (knocking on wood) remarkably healthy at the moment. In our on Wednesday night, Seth and I went through the Twins 2021 roster position-by-position, and were joined by MLB.com's Do-Hyoung Park. You can watch that below, or keep scrolling for the skinny on each position, with links to the full breakdowns for each. CATCHER Starter: Mitch Garver Backup: Ryan Jeffers Depth: Willians Astudillo, Tomás Telis Prospects: Ben Rortvedt The Twins are perfectly equipped for a new era of workload management behind the plate, with two starting-caliber options who figure to split the time almost evenly. Garver is one year removed from playing at a borderline-MVP level and Jeffers looked tremendous as a rookie. Astudillo is a better third catcher than most other teams can boast, and Rortvedt gives them a legitimate prospect in the minors who's nearing readiness. This position is stacked. FIRST BASE Starter: Miguel Sanó Backup: Willians Astudillo Depth: Brent Rooker, Mitch Garver Prospects: Alex Kirilloff, Aaron Sabato This is definitely a prove-it year for Sanó, who followed up his breakout 2019 – and contract extension – with a disappointing 2020 campaign that saw him bat .204 while leading the league in strikeouts. He looked pretty solid defensively in his transition to first base, but the slugger's bat will determine his future. Sanó certainly has the makings of a prototypical run-producing first baseman. If he can't shake off the inconsistency and contact woes, the Twins have no shortage of options behind him; Rooker is just waiting his turn. SECOND BASE Starter: Jorge Polanco Backup: Luis Arraez Depth: Nick Gordon, Travis Blankenhorn Prospects: Jose Miranda, Yunior Severino Sanó is still acclimating to the right side of the diamond, and now the guy playing alongside him at second base will be doing the same. Polanco is shifting over from shortstop, to a position where he seems a more natural fit. His success as a second baseman will be defined in part by his ability to adapt defensively and let his fielding skills shine through, but even more so by his ability to rebound at the plate after a lackluster campaign and second consecutive offseason ankle surgery. THIRD BASE Starter: Josh Donaldson Backup: Luis Arraez Depth: Willians Astudillo, Travis Blankenhorn Prospects: Keoni Cavaco, Jose Miranda The first year of Donaldson's historic free agent contract with the Twins was more or less a flop, as his problematic calf flared up multiple times and kept him out of the lineup for half the shortened season, as well as the playoffs. The good news is that he looked mostly like his usual self when on the field. If he can shake off the injury relapse and play a full season at age 35, he can completely change the complexion of this team – offensively and defensively – but we should probably expect to see a significant amount of Arraez and Astudillo at third. SHORTSTOP Starter: Andrelton Simmons Backup: Jorge Polanco Depth: Luis Arráez, Nick Gordon Prospects: Royce Lewis, Wander Javier In one of their most intriguing offseason moves ever, the Twins supplanted Polanco from shortstop (where he started in the 2019 All-Star Game) by signing an all-time great defender in Simmons. It's an open question whether the 31-year-old can continue to play at that same historically outstanding level in the field, coming off a season where he hurt his ankle and his defensive metrics tanked, but on a one-year deal there's not much risk. The upside, if he's anywhere near his previous defensive norm, could be transformative. The downside basically involves going back to the previous Polanco-Arraez alignment in the middle infield, which is hardly a nightmare. LEFT FIELD Starter: Jake Cave Backup: Kyle Garlick Depth: Luis Arráez, Brent Rooker Prospects: Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach Left field will belong to Kirilloff at some point, but up until then, a platoon of Cave and Garlick will be keeping the spot warm, with Arraez likely rotating through a fair amount. The team's top prospect brings tantalizing excitement to this position, but Cave and Garlick should be a perfectly serviceable interim solution. With Rooker, Larnach, Keon Broxton, and others all serving as depth, the Twins are in no danger of being needy here, even with longtime staple Eddie Rosario now gone. CENTER FIELD Starter: Byron Buxton Backup: Jake Cave Depth: Max Kepler, Keon Broxton Prospects: Gilberto Celestino, Misael Urbina Can Buxton stay healthy enough to play a full season, or even anything close? As usual, that's the big question in center field – one with pivotal implications for the team at large. If he can stay on the field he's a decisive difference-maker, but unfortunately the Twins must plan around the expectation of his absence at this point. They're fairly well equipped to sustain his loss, with Kepler able to shift over and plenty of depth in the corners, so Buxton's presence almost feels like a bonus this year – one with game-changing potential. RIGHT FIELD Starter: Max Kepler Backup: Jake Cave Depth: Brent Rooker, Kyle Garlick Prospects: Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach Kepler is one of the best defensive right fielders in the game, but for much of his career, his bat hasn't quite measured up. Is he the average hitter we saw through 2018, or the true offensive asset we saw in a breakthrough, 36-homer 2019 season? His step backward in 2020 points to the former, but now Kepler has a chance to get back on track and re-establish himself as a top-tier right fielder. The pressure is mounting a bit, with top prospects starting to press. DESIGNATED HITTER Starter: Nelson Cruz Backup: Miguel Sanó Depth: Luis Arráez, Mitch Garver Prospects: Aaron Sabato, Brent Rooker Cruz's ongoing battle against Father Time is one of the big storylines heading into the 2021 season. Very few hitters in major-league history – even in the class of all-time greats – have remained productive at the same age as Nelly, who turns 41 in three months. But the good news is that he can drop off significantly and still be an asset at DH, and the better news is that even if things go totally awry, the Twins have numerous quality bats they can plug in at this position. It's really hard to envision a scenario where DH isn't a strength for this team. STARTING PITCHER Rotation: Kenta Maeda, José Berríos, Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker Depth: Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, Lewis Thorpe, Bailey Ober Prospects: Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, Blayne Enlow, Cole Sands It's difficult to remember a time when the Twins had this much starting pitching depth. Not only are they strong at the top, with the reigning Cy Young runner-up Maeda and the steadily great Berríos leading the charge, but through the middle and beyond the back end. Pineda and Happ are better than most third/fourth starters. Dobnak, with his freshly minted contract extension, is on the outside to open the season. Top prospects Duran, Balazovic, and Canterino could all make an impact imminently. Thorpe has looked tremendous this spring. Just a ton to like here. RELIEF PITCHER Bullpen: Taylor Rogers, Alex Colomé, Tyler Duffey, Hansel Robles, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcalá, Cody Stashak, Randy Dobnak Depth: Shaun Anderson, Ian Hamilton, Brandon Waddell, Ian Gibaut Prospects: Jhoan Duran, Edwar Colina, Dakota Chalmers, Josh Winder This unit certainly represents the biggest question mark on the roster heading into the season. Almost every pitcher in the mix is either looking to rebound from a down year, modestly experienced, rejected by other teams, or all of the above. And yet ... how can we not faith in the way this team operates its bullpen plan? They've proven they know what they're doing, and so I trust them, and you don't have to squint too hard to see any pitcher in their collection being a real asset. With that said, if things unravel in the relief corps this year, the Twins will definitely be open to criticism after letting several key contributors from an outstanding 2020 bullpen walk. ~~~ The Twins are fielding a hell of a team this year. Health will of course be the primary determinant of their fate, and it's not an area they've fared well recently, but as they take the field in Milwaukee, they'll be healthy and at full strength. What more can you ask for? Happy Opening Day, and cheers to the return of baseball. This team is absolutely capable of winning a World Series. Can they fulfill their potential in what may be Nelly's last ride? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

With Opening Day upon us, we held an Opening Day Eve live-stream on Wednesday. Check out the discussion below!On Wednesday night, Seth and I went live with our 2021 season preview, breaking down the division battle ahead and the roster that Minnesota will roll out on Opening Day. We were joined during the first part of the show by MLB.com beat writer Do-Hyoung Park, who's in Milwaukee where the Twins open their season on Thursday. Watch below: Baseball's back, folks. Let us celebrate. You can catch future streams live on YouTube, and also via our Twitter and Facebook pages. Subscribe and follow them all so you never miss out! Click here to view the article

They now have (optional) control over 3 years of his free agency, so this isn't quite accurate. I also think guaranteeing him salaries for the next 5 years makes him a much firmer part of their plans.

We've learned that this Minnesota Twins front office highly values both flexibility and stability in its team-building strategy. With Randy Dobnak's newly-minted contract extension, the Twins maintain flexibility in their rotation plans while also securing some much-needed, low-risk stability for the long term.At first blush, Dobnak's new contract seems absurdly team-friendly. The Twins are locking up a proven young pitcher, with a 3.12 ERA through 75 MLB innings, to a five-year deal guaranteeing him less money than Michael Pineda or J.A. Happ will earn this year alone. That makes sense. Dobnak lacks the big-league bona fides of Kluber and Carrasco when they signed, or the top-prospect luster of Archer when he did. The implications of Dobnak's background in this decision are apparent from the outside – given where he was at a few short years ago, it's gotta be hard to pass up $9 million in guaranteed money, especially when the "worst case scenario" means you pitch really well and earn $30+ million while staying in the same place for the next eight years. The Twins, for their part, will happily take the stability in exchange for a modest financial commitment. Prior to extending Dobnak, Minnesota had no starters (sans prospects and fringe rotation options like Lewis Thorpe and Devin Smeltzer) under control beyond 2023. The graphic below show just how much his extension changes that picture. Download attachment: twinsspcontrol.png The Twins will have plenty of flexibility in building their rotation going forward. Dobnak is now firmly entrenched as a sturdy building block to serve as their bedrock. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

I only included Thorpe as the last reliever here because of the uncertainty around Thorpe's fourth option (which is of course now cleared up). With that sorted, I expect Dobnak to be the long man in the pen.

There's no two ways about it: on paper, Minnesota's bullpen picture is high on risk and low on assurance. Strategizing around a series of rebound performances and coaching-related glow ups, the message being sent to fans by the front office is essentially: trust us, we got this. Frankly, they've earned some faith.Projected Bullpen: Taylor Rogers, Alex Colomé, Tyler Duffey, Hansel Robles, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcalá, Cody Stashak, Lewis Thorpe Depth: Shaun Anderson, Ian Hamilton, Brandon Waddell, Ian Gibaut Prospects: Jhoan Duran, Edwar Colina, Dakota Chalmers, Josh Winder THE GOOD The top of Minnesota's bullpen is well stocked with proven high-caliber arms. Taylor Rogers (3rd), Tyler Duffey (13th) and newcomer Hansel Robles (19th) all rank among the top 20 major-league relief pitchers in fWAR since 2019. Alex Colomé isn't rated quite as highly by that metric (42nd), but is a more conventionally appealing back-end arm: 15th in ERA, fourth in saves (with a 91% conversion rate), and seventh in Win Probability Added. Backfilling May's overpowering presence, along with the functional reliability of Clippard and Wisler (who ranked first and second among MN relievers in innings pitched), will be a tall task. While the Twins have a large quantity of talented arms for the task, there are legit question marks surrounding most of them. Rogers is coming off a tough year, in which hitters seemingly caught on to his previously baffling repertoire. Robles is trying to rebound from an unmitigated disaster that got him non-tendered by the Angels. Colomé was ditched by the White Sox and generated little demand in free agency, despite the gaudy numbers. It's hard to look at any of these pitchers with the same confidence as Rogers, May and Romo a year ago. THE BOTTOM LINE Great bullpens are requisite for transcendent teams, especially in the modern game. Year after year, when you look at MLB's leading teams in bullpen fWAR, you find clubs that made the playoffs and often made deep runs. (Last year, the Dodgers and Rays ranked first and second, respectively.) The Twins ranked third, for a second consecutive year, and they've achieved all this success by following their own model. They identify impact relievers (often below-the-radar types), develop customized plans, and execute. They've done it time and time again, and for that reason they've earned a good amount of faith. But leaps of faith are definitely required to see this bullpen maintaining the elite level of performance that's now become the norm. They lost a lot of quality during the offseason, and are gambling heavily on their secret sauce in this 2021 bullpen recipe. READ OTHER 2021 POSITION ANALYSIS ARTICLES CatcherFirst BaseSecond BaseThird BaseShortstopLeft FieldCenter FieldRight FieldDesignated HitterStarting Pitcher Click here to view the article

You're probably right. I respect Morris' career but I think he's generally pretty overrated, and I'm so drained on hearing him always invoked as a "grass-is-greener" playoff rotation lament. He had great moments in the postseason, including maybe the greatest moment, but he was hardly infallible. The nature of the game was so different then compared to now, it feels completely pointless to bring his name up. Managers don't use starters in that same way, and are finding plenty of success anyway. Clayton Kershaw & Walker Buehler collectively pitched past the 6th inning once in 10 playoff starts last year. Kevin Cash routinely pulled his starters after a couple turns through the lineup. In the context of baseball as it is now, Maeda has been extremely effective in the playoffs. And that's what matters.

In which of the last few seasons would you say the Twins had a better and deeper rotation than this one? You might say last year, with the hindsight of knowing Maeda would break out, but then you'd also have the hindsight of knowing Odo would be completely unavailable. Also ,at no point in my recollection have they had this many high-caliber pitching prospects on the doorstep, which is a key part of that assertion.

You can lay out all the caveats but the fact remains: Morris was pretty mediocre in the playoffs outside of that one greatest postseason start ever (4.26 ERA in 12 starts). It's true that Maeda's been used differently, but he has risen to the occasion in his role very consistently. Morris' greatest asset as a postseason starter was durability and piling up complete games. He was used in a way that no modern manager (certainly not Baldelli) would ever use a starting pitcher today. So yeah, it is an oranges-to-orangutans comparison but I'd rather have the current version of Maeda than Morris at any point in his career. Morris was never this good.

Maeda has pitched 25 times in the playoffs and has a 2.87 ERA. Jack Morris had a 3.80 career ERA in the playoffs. Just saying.