Nick Nelson

As last year's No. 2 overall pick and the current consensus top prospect in baseball, Byron Buxton has drawn some lofty comparisons. You often hear his name mentioned alongside similarly well-rounded outfielders who dominated the minors and made a quick impact in the majors, such as Mike Trout and the Upton Brothers. One commonality between those three players? They all debuted in the big leagues as teenagers. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] That won't happen for Buxton, who celebrates his 20th birthday in December. The center fielder is currently playing at Class-A Ft. Myers and there's been no whisper of a possibility that he could see Target Field before season's end. But the organization's most prized talent also may not be as far off as some would suspect. In his first taste of full-season pro competition after being drafted last June, Buxton outright dominated the Midwest League this year, batting .341 with a .990 OPS in 68 games to force a promotion to the next level. In Ft. Myers, he adjusted quickly and has been no less dominant in recent weeks. His numbers over his past 25 games, dating back to late July: .413/.522/.641, three homers, two doubles, five triples, a 20:20 K/BB ratio and 17 steals. Those are the kinds of numbers you put up in a video game when the difficulty setting is too low. Buxton is as out of place in this league as he was in the last. Yet, with the season winding down (only a handful of games remain on the minor-league schedules) it makes little sense to take any sort of action right now. Almost certainly, Buxton will remain with the Miracle for the ensuing postseason run, and will then be done for the season. Where might he start next year? And where might he finish? The Aggressive Route We don't know yet how Buxton will handle Double-A and Triple-A… but we can probably guess. His talent is so immense that it can almost be assumed the speedy outfielder will make quick work of anything the minor leagues have to offer. Like Trout and Justin Upton before him, Buxton can learn on the job, perhaps following the same path and putting up big numbers as a 20-year-old in the majors. But jumping straight from Single-A to The Show is basically unprecedented in recent years, at least for hitters. Even transcendent talents like Trout, the Uptons and Bryce Harper spent at least a chunk of time in Double-A and/or Triple-A before reaching the bigs (although they reached those levels more quickly than Buxton did). The Twins have done much this year to shed their reputation as being conservative with promotions to a fault, but it's still nigh impossible to envision Buxton going straight to the majors next spring. The most realistically aggressive approach I can see would have him starting in Double-A with a chance to force his way into the big-league fold as early as May or June. The Conservative Route Buxton is viewed as the future centerpiece of Minnesota's outfield, but the club has much to sort out around him. Aaron Hicks should return to the mix next year, along with Oswaldo Arcia. Presently, Josh Willingham remains in line for the left field job, and moving him to DH probably won't be an option as long as Ryan Doumit is around. Meanwhile, guys like Chris Parmelee and Trevor Plouffe remain on the fringe of the discussion. I bristle at the notion that the Twins should hold back an elite MLB-ready talent so that Doumit or Plouffe can get playing time in right field, but the existing outfield logjam at the very least eliminates any sense of urgency regarding Buxton's arrival. It's pretty tough to argue for any truly conservative approach that doesn't involve Buxton struggling in Double-A. I suppose the patient route would be leaving him in New Britain for the entire first half, regardless of his production, and moving him up to Triple-A after the All-Star break if his performance dictates. Buxton would then be in position to appear as a September call-up next year and become a full-time major-leaguer at age 21 in 2015. The Likely Route I actually believe the Twins will embrace the opportunity to move quickly with Buxton. He'll start at Double-A next year but if his performance there is anything like it's been at Low-A and High-A this season, the Twins will find room for him in their outfield before the All-Star break. Under normal circumstances, we wouldn't be talking about young and inexperienced players like Buxton and Miguel Sano as candidates to play in the majors. But, much like with Sano -- and perhaps even more so -- we are talking about a generational talent in Buxton, and the normal rules just don't apply here. And in addition to the players themselves forcing the issue, there are the realities being faced by the Twins organization. This team is amidst a third straight year of irrelevance. They need to get some of these kids on the field so that fans can see the future instead of constantly hearing about it. Buxton is the kind of player who will create a legitimate buzz and bring people out to the ballpark. And I believe he'll be doing it in the first half of next season.

When the Twins dealt away Wilson Ramos in exchange for Matt Capps at the 2010 trade deadline, the after-effects could hardly have been more unfortunate. The Twins fizzled out in the first round of the playoffs, with Capps unable to make any real impact. The next season, Ramos emerged as a Rookie of the Year contender for the Nationals while Joe Mauer's future behind the plate fell into doubt amidst debilitating lower-body injuries. The ill-fated swap had left the organization with an overpriced mediocre closer and no heir apparent should Mauer need to transition away from catcher. Fortunately, the latter ceased to be an issue last year, when the former MVP set a career high in both games played while mostly serving as a backstop. Yet, after being placed on the disabled list this week with concussion symptoms resulting from the beating he took while crouching on Monday night, the wisdom of keeping Mauer at his present position has once again become a topic of discussion. Back at the time the Twins traded Ramos, Josmil Pinto was a 21-year-old with a sub-600 OPS in Low-A. He had previously shown some promise in rookie ball, but his failure to adapt to full-season competition in 2010 and 2011 had the Venezuelan looking like a non-prospect. Over the last two years, however, Pinto's bat has really emerged. He entered the 2012 season with a .256 career batting average, but went on to hit .295/.362/.482 with 14 homers between Single-A and Double-A. Those numbers were mostly accumulated in Ft. Myers, causing some skepticism regarding their significance (he was, after all, older and more experienced than much of the competition), but he backed them up by posting a sterling .308/.411/.482 line in 107 games at New Britain this year, earning a promotion to Triple-A earlier this month. He's the rare example of a prospect who has improved offensively as he has moved up the ladder; his .896 OPS in 119 games at Double-A dwarfs his production at any other level outside rookie ball, and he demonstrated very good plate discipline along the way with 81 strikeouts against 68 walks in New Britain. Since being bumped up to Rochester, he has gotten off to solid start, with a .302 average and five extra-base hits in his first 15 contests. There are still concerns about his defensive chops, but at the very least Pinto's bat looks to be nearly ready. The Aggressive Route Drew Butera is gone. Chris Herrmann is catching less and less. Ryan Doumit is among the worst defensive backstops in baseball. The Twins have a fairly immediate need for a quality backup to Mauer -- and perhaps more than a backup depending on what they decide about his workload behind the plate going forward. Could Pinto be up to the task? It would behoove the club to find out. The 24-year-old might not be an all-world defender but it's tough to imagine he's a whole lot rougher than Doumit or Herrmann, and he possesses plenty more upside than either at this point. There ought to be ample playing time available at catcher in September, because even if Mauer returns quickly the team would be foolish to keep sticking him back there often (or, really, at all) for the rest of this season. Pinto is already on the 40-man roster, so bringing him up would be easy enough. Depending on what he shows during his short audition, he could be positioned to claim a spot on next year's roster, serving in a Doumit-like role where he splits his time between catcher and DH. The Conservative Route The problem with the above approach is that Pinto is still a developing player, and relegating him to a part-time role in the majors when he has only minimal experience at Triple-A could prove detrimental. While his initial production in Rochester has been decent, he has nine strikeouts and one walk, a far cry from the impressive strike zone control he displayed in Double-A. And, of course, he'll benefit from everyday reps behind the plate as he looks to refine his defensive game. I like the idea of Pinto eventually assuming a Doumit type role on the big-league club, but of course Doumit will still be around to fill that role himself next year, at least early on. With that being the case, it makes more sense to start Pinto back in Triple-A, where he can accrue more experience against high-level pitchers while also getting in his needed work at catcher. If he produces, it would make Doumit all the more expendable, and would also give the Twins a nice option to fall back on should anything happen to Mauer. The Likely Route A good argument can be made for aggressively pushing premium prospects like Miguel Sano and Alex Meyer to the majors, but Pinto is not on that tier, and not particularly close. Up until last year, he wasn't really much of a prospect at all, and he still only has his success in Double-A to lean on. Pinto needs extended time in Triple-A to prove that he is ready for the big leagues both offensively and defensively. At the same time, the precarious Mauer situation throws a wrench in this thing. If the Twins were to decide that their franchise cornerstone should be moved away from catcher for his own good, there's no better candidate in the organization than Pinto to replace him as starter long-term. But that brings us back to the issue of player development. It simply doesn't seem prudent to throw Pinto straight into the fire. More than likely he will open the 2014 season back in Rochester and will remain there until he clearly demonstrates his readiness and a need becomes apparent. Should that need become apparent before he's ready, the Twins will probably have to find a placeholder in free agency. Eventually, the hope is that Pinto will make fans forget about Ramos. Certainly Bill Smith would appreciate that.

On Monday night, Francisco Liriano spun perhaps his most impressive gem in a season that's been full of them. Facing the Padres in San Diego, the lefty hurled seven scoreless innings, striking out 13 and allowing only four hits to pick up his 14th win of the campaign. Through 19 starts for Pittsburgh, Liriano holds a 2.53 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 126/47 strikeout-to-walk ratio with only five home runs allowed in 121 innings. He has been, in a word, sensational -- the ace starter for a team that appears headed for the playoffs. His 13 strikeouts on Monday night were six more than any Twins pitcher has tallied in a start this season. Meanwhile, a Minnesota team that let him walk after several maddeningly inconsistent seasons remains anchored near the bottom of the standings, with a rotation that continues to be one of the worst in the league while offering little hope for improvement. To be sure, there are plenty of ways you can couch this situation so that it doesn't reflect quite so poorly on Twins management. He posted a 5.18 ERA during his final two seasons in Minny, and his production was essentially identical in 12 outings after being traded to the White Sox last year. He continued to hurt his own case with a bizarre offseason injury. Of course, as the Twins and their defenders will emphasize, Liriano's success this year has come in the National League, where opposing lineups are less threatening and less familiar with the left-hander's arsenal. Still, all of those excuses fall short with me. The NL might be an easier pitching environment but it's still the major leagues, and Liriano's performance doesn't merely look good in contrast to Minnesota's motley crew. We're talking about a Cy Young contender here. He may not be a terribly strong contender due to his late start and the assortment of incredible pitching performances in the Senior Circuit this year, but Liriano leads his league in wins and ranks among the top 10 in K/9 rate, ground ball rate, ERA, xFIP and home run rate. Many Twins fans have taken this as another opportunity to lash out at Rick Anderson. I'm not taking that route. Anderson worked hard to straighten out the erratic southpaw and for the most part I think Frankie created his own problems. However, it was always clear from watching Liriano that he had immense talent, and he's still in the middle of his physical prime at 29 years old. Rather than gamble on that ability with minimal risk (the Pirates ended up guaranteeing him only a million dollars on a one-year deal, and now have a fairly cheap option on him for 2014 as well) the Twins chose to take the "safe" approach, going with proven veteran mediocrities like Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey -- signings that have predictably paid no dividends. Sure, maybe Liriano would have continued down the same path had he remained in Minnesota. Maybe he wasn't even interested in staying, although it wouldn't have been too difficult to healthily outbid the Bucs. Whichever way you look at the situation, the Twins just don't come out looking good. They either failed repeatedly to help Liriano reach his potential, or screwed up by declining to take a chance on him finding it again despite their utterly desperate need for pitching. Whatever the case, with this type of judgment it's not hard to see why the Twins have worked their way into such a pitiful state with their rotation. Developments like this it make it all the more challenging to believe that the current leadership can do what it takes to get things turned around.

In 2011, Miguel Sano enjoyed a breakout season in Elizabethton, launching 20 homers in just 66 games for the Twins' advanced rookie-league affiliate. Because that dazzling performance served as a springboard for the young slugger, who has since graduated to elite prospect status, it can be easy to forget that Sano didn't even lead his team in home runs that year. No, that would be Eddie Rosario, who went deep 21 times and posted a 1.068 OPS for E-town -- one of the best offensive seasons ever assembled in the Appalachian League. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] While he has never garnered the same massive hype as Sano, Rosario has managed to stay on the same aggressive promotion schedule and has hit at every level. If he's not as close to the majors as Sano, who could be up next month, he's certainly not far behind. Following his huge season in Elizabethton, Rosario was moved from center field to second base, as the Twins hoped to shift some of their minor-league strength from the outfield to the infield. Though his adaptation to the new position has included some bumps, his glovework has mostly drawn solid reviews. And the bat... well, the bat just continues to shine. Rosario has hit .307/.359/.513 overall in four minor-league seasons. He batted .329 with a .903 OPS in the first half at Ft. Myers to earn a promotion to New Britain, and in the Eastern League he is currently at .274/.333/.403 through 56 games. Those numbers don't stick out like the ones he's posted elsewhere, but this is a 21-year-old getting his first taste of Double-A. Among 19 second basemen with 200-plus plate appearances in the EL, Rosario is the third-youngest and ranks seventh in OPS. Pretty damn good. The thing about Rosario is that he doesn't necessarily have particular skills that elevate him above the rest. His power has come back down to Earth after the 21-homer season in E-town -- he has hit only 22 total bombs in two seasons since. His plate discipline isn't great. He's not much a base stealer (19-for-40 over the last two years, yuck). But Rosario can straight-up hit, and has done so very consistently while rising rapidly through Minnesota's system. He's clearly a part of the next wave for the Twins, but how long will it be before we actually see him at Target Field? The Aggressive Route Sano has forced his way into consideration for a September call-up due to his sheer obliteration of Eastern League pitching. That hasn't been the case for Rosario, whose numbers at New Britain profile more as good than great, especially after a recent slump that has seen him bat .158 over his past 10 contests. Early 2014 would seem to be the soonest we might see Rosario, and when the Twins do finally decide to give the kid a look, they'll need to find room for him with the suddenly entrenched Brian Dozier holding down second base. There are a number of potential ways to go about this. As a young, cheap second baseman coming off a breakout year, Dozier might have some trade value during the offseason. If they could flip him for quality arms while opening a spot for Rosario, it's something they would have to look at. Heck, they could even look at trading Rosario if the right opportunity comes along. The more likely scenario, however, is that the Twins look to create space for both Dozier and Rosario. That might mean trying Dozier at shortstop again (although he's looked so comfortable at second that's hard to envision). It might also mean sliding Rosario back into the outfield, at least temporarily. Suddenly the Twins don't look quite so stacked out there in the short term, with Aaron Hicks' brutal season casting doubt on his readiness. By starting in Rochester next year, Rosario would be ready to put up numbers and position himself for a call-up whenever a need arises, either at second or in the outfield. The Conservative Route It's easy to caught up in the flurry of promotions, what with all the midseason movement we've seen this summer. Guys like Sano and Byron Buxton have changed the rules for an organization that typically opts for a more patient approach. But it's important to remember that Rosario simply isn't on the level of those two, and the Twins might be a bit gun-shy about pushing too hard with non-generational talents after watching Hicks struggle immensely with the transition from Double-A to the majors this year. Next spring, Rosario will still be only 22, and unless he turns things around in the final weeks at New Britain he'll be coming off a fairly pedestrian half-season in Double-A. By returning to the Rock Cats next year, the second baseman will still be younger than many of his peers in the Eastern League, and he'll be able to dictate his own pace through his production. With Dozier earning plenty of leash in the majors, the Twins have the luxury of taking things as slowly as they want without worrying about robbing the big-league club of a talent that could sorely be used (unlike with Sano and Alex Meyer). The Likely Route With his lack of overwhelming production in New Britain, along with the presence of Dozier in the majors, I expect the Twins to go full-out conservative with Rosario. And that's perfectly fine. Let him continue to iron out his game and work his way up to Triple-A and beyond while the Twins continue to see what they have in their emerging 26-year-old incumbent.

When they acquired him in exchange for Denard Span last winter, the Twins envisioned Alex Meyer as a power arm with front-end upside that could be plugged into the big-league rotation within a year or two. Unfortunately, although he has pitched well enough while on the field, his first season as part of the organization hasn't clarified a whole lot regarding his future. Meyer missed a full two months due to shoulder soreness and just recently began easing back with short stints in the Gulf Coast League to rebuild arm strength. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] On the plus side, the right-hander has demonstrated the ability to dominate this season. His 10.8 K/9 rate ranks second in the Eastern League among starters with 50-plus innings, and before being sidelined by injury he was holding opponents there to a .225 average with only three homers in 61 frames. Then again, some of his other numbers -- like a 3.69 ERA and 1.31 WHIP -- were less sensational. And the missed time really muddles his situation. Had he stayed healthy, Meyer may have been positioned for a late-season promotion to Triple-A, where he could have proven himself prepared to compete for a spot in the Twins rotation next spring. Instead, he might be able to make two or three starts in the Eastern League before year's end, but he'll finish the season with well under 100 innings and no sustained pattern of outstanding results. Their porous rotation filled with low-velocity contact pitchers, the Twins are badly in need of an arm like Meyer's, and as soon as possible. But how quickly can they realistically bring him into the fold? The Aggressive Route A September call-up is probably out of the question given his situation, but Meyer needs innings. By pitching in the Arizona Fall League, he could continue to build strength, then compete for a rotation spot in spring training next year if he's deemed ready. The Twins have proven far less willing to promote pitchers directly to the majors from Double-A than position players, but Meyer has a huge arm and many scouts have expressed that his stuff could play in the majors right now. Next spring he'll be 24 years old, an age where many high-end college-seasoned pitching prospects have already debuted in the big leagues. And, as mentioned above, the Twins really need him to make an impact next year if they're going to get things turned around. The sooner the better. The Conservative Route A decent argument could be made that Meyer ought to start back in Double-A next season. He'll probably end the year with around 75 innings thrown in the Eastern League, and despite his big strikeout totals his overall performance there has not been flat-out dominant the point where a promotion is a no-brainer. His control needs work and -- to borrow one of this organization's pet terms -- he needs to build more consistency from outing to outing. To play things safe, the Twins could let Meyer wrap up his 2013 season with a few more outings, then rest up during the offseason and report back to New Britain at the start of next year. If his performance dictates, he can work his way up to Rochester early in the season and vie for a promotion to the majors in the second half. (This approach conveniently might help him bypass the Super 2 deadline.) The Likely Route I doubt the Twins will throw their most prized pitching prospect into the major-league fray until he has thoroughly proven through his production in the minors that he is completely ready. Having him repeat Double-A next year seems like overkill -- he will be 24 and his peripheral numbers suggest that he's more than ready for the next level -- but opening the 2014 season in Rochester seems realistic and reasonable. This would provide Meyer with a chance to earn a call-up in the early months of the season, so that he could still potentially make a significant impact for the club. The scary thing here, really, is that achy right shoulder, which will require constant monitoring. The Twins can insist all they want that his injury was minor, but players simply do not miss a full third of the season because of minor injuries. It's nice to see Meyer back on the mound, and throwing well, but it will be difficult to have full confidence in his health going forward until he puts together an extended stretch of quality, durable performance. And until we see that, he probably won't be in the conversation for a shot at the majors.

In this new series, we'll take a look at several young players in the Twins' organization who may be ready to contribute by next season. How will they be handled? How should they be handled? What do their ascensions mean to players already on the MLB roster? What's the plan? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] --- There may have been a short period of time where the clamor to see Miguel Sano promoted from Single-A looked a little silly in hindsight. After his first 13 games in Double-A following the promotion, he was hitting .150 with a .625 OPS. Nothing alarming, but perhaps a sign that it wasn't all that outrageous for the 20-year-old to have spent a few extra weeks in the Florida State League. That didn't last long. Less than two months later, Sano looks to be completely above the competition in Double-A. Even with the slow start, the third baseman ranks statistically as one of the finest hitters in the Eastern League, where his OPS ranks fifth among players with 150 plate appearances and his slugging percentage ranks second. As he has rapidly adjusted and grown more comfortable, Sano's numbers in New Britain have gotten more and more ridiculous. Since those first 13 games, he has hit .294/.396/.681 with 11 homers and 34 RBI in 34 games. In his last 20 games he's at .329/.449/.712. In his most recent three-game series over the weekend, he went 6-for-13 with two homers, three doubles and seven RBI. He then added another long ball in Tuesday night's game. Just ridiculous. At this point there seems to be little question that, even though he won't yet be 21 when the 2014 starts, Sano will be ready to play in the majors. In fact, based on his transcendence in Double-A it's getting harder and harder to to believe he's not ready right now. The Aggressive Route Operate under the assumption that Sano will be ready to take over third at the outset of the 2014 season. Let him play out the schedule in New Britain (the regular season ends on September 2nd) and then call him up to finish the year in Minnesota, gathering 50-75 at-bats and providing a nice attraction at Target Field in the final month of a lost season. Presuming he doesn't prove totally overwhelmed by the challenge, Sano can enter spring training next year as the favorite to man third base, while the Twins reconfigure around him and try to return to contention with his powerful bat helping lead the way. The Conservative Route Here's the thing: There's really no rush to get Sano up. His performance is the only factor forcing that issue, and there are plenty of other circumstances that would dictate a slower approach. For one, there's the guy currently occupying the hot corner for the Twins. Trevor Plouffe is having a tough season but it seems premature to give up on him. Then there's Deibinson Romero, a 26-year-old third baseman who is having a nice year at Rochester and might merit a look ahead of the young Sano. Of course, there's also the assortment of service clock implications. By keeping Sano in the minors through most of April next season, they can add another year of team control, and by holding off until July they can keep his future arbitration price tags down. All of that should be a secondary concern, in my opinion, but it's a factor. Letting Sano wrap up his season in New Britain, play some winter ball and open the 2014 season in Rochester would be justifiable, even looking beyond the financial aspects. He is, after all, still 20 years old, immature, inexperienced. And taking a patient approach does buy more time to make decisions on the likes of Plouffe and, to a lesser extent, Romero. The Likely Route My guess is that the Twins will follow more along the conservative path. I doubt we'll see Sano this September, though it wouldn't shock me if they called him up for the "Sit on the bench and take it all in" experience. It's hard for me to see Plouffe getting buried for the last month, barring injury, and adding Sano would require some 40-man roster hassle. With all that being said, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of Sano getting a legitimate shot at the Opening Day third base job next year. We've heard as much rumbled through the grapevine, and the slugger's convincing progression in Double-A only serves to fuel that fire. Ordinarily, common sense would point to taking things slowly, because the Twins are a team in transition and Sano is still a 20-year-old kid learning how to be a professional. But this isn't an ordinary case. His talent is special, and at some point (perhaps some point very soon) it just no longer makes any sense to leave him stagnating in the minor leagues.