Nick Nelson

The Twins truly might have the most talent-laded farm system in all of baseball, so ranking and profiling our selections for the Top 10 prospects over the past couple weeks has been a lot of fun. Today, we'll take a high-level look at that list as a whole and see what it tells us about the future of the franchise, both short-term and long-term. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] First, here's a rundown of the TD Top 10, with links to each story: 10. Trevor May, RHP9. Lewis Thorpe, LHP 8. Jorge Polanco, 2B 7. Josmil Pinto, C 6. Jose Berrios, RHP 5. Eddie Rosario, 2B 4. Kohl Stewart, RHP 3. Alex Meyer, RHP 2. Miguel Sano, 3B 1. Byron Buxton, OF Arms Race The biggest thing that stands out about this list is the presence of five pitchers, including two in the top four. Last year's list featured four, but they were all ranked fifth or below, so there has clearly been some very positive movement on that front. As anyone who has been following the Twins over the past few years would surely agree, this is profoundly good news. Brace For Impact With the exceptions of Stewart, Berrios, Polanco and Thorpe, every player in our Top 10 is expected to begin the 2014 season in Double-A or above, meaning that six of these high-end prospects will be poised to jump to the majors at any time. A strong start, combined with injuries or struggles at the big-league level, could lead to the expedited arrival of several players on this list. Because of this, the '14 season has a chance to be the most exciting for fans in many years. National Recognition Here's where the members of our Top 10 have been ranked by three of the most respected national outlets for prospect coverage: MLB.com, ESPN.com and Baseball Prospectus. Buxton 1 | 1 | 1 Sano 3 | 8 | 14 Meyer 32 | 62 | 32 Stewart 61 | 76 | 54 Rosario 63 | 49 | 60 Berrios 77 | NR | 75 Pinto NR | NR | 56 Polanco NR | NR | NR Thorpe NR | NR | 101 May NR | NR | NR Top Heavy Each of the organization's top three prospects would probably rank No. 1 for many teams around the league, offering monstrous upside that is not far from being tapped. Buxton and Sano have both been widely hailed as potential MVP contenders while Meyer has all the makings of a frontline starter as long as he can stay healthy. That's not even mentioning Stewart, the top high school pick in last year's draft, whose distance from the majors is the only thing holding him back from elite status. By this time next year, we may be ranking his upside above Meyer's.

Unanimity. That's something you don't come across too often. When Greg Maddux's name came up on the Hall of Fame ballot last month, he did not gain unanimous induction despite being one of the most obvious Hall of Famers ever. When Joe Mauer was the clear-cut best player in the league in 2009, he was not the unanimous choice for MVP. Opinions are subjective, and in any vote or ranking, there are bound to be dissenters. Except when it comes to naming the current best prospect in baseball. In that case, the answer is essentially indisputable. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Byron Buxton has earned that billing from MLB.com, ESPN.com and Baseball Prospectus. Baseball America will surely follow suit later this month. Last week, Marc Normandin of SB Nation published a column that heaped effusive praise on Buxton from a wide variety of sources. This passage provides a scout's perspective on the young outfielder's physical abilities: No prospect is a sure thing. No prospect is a sure thing. No prospect is a sure thing. No prospect is a sure thing. No prospect is a sure thing. No prospect is a sure thing. No prospect is a sure thing. Sorry, I just had to grind that back into my brain. Because when you take a hard look at Byron Buxton -- his statistics, his physical prowess and the immense respect he's gained from normally reserved prospect analysts everywhere in just one full season -- it can be easy to forget. Batting Last year Buxton was a 19-year-old getting his first taste of full-season ball. He absolutely dominated, hitting .334/.424/.520 between Low-A and High-A while totaling 19 doubles, 18 triples and 12 homers in 125 games. At the plate, he was the full package. Disciplined, difficult to strike out and a nightmare after putting the ball in play. His bat speed is tremendous, his approach highly advanced. He'll face another big challenge when he makes the jump to New Britain this spring, but there's little reason to expect anything other than success against Double-A pitching. Throwing It's well known that, in high school, Buxton could crank it up to the mid-90s as a pitcher, and he mowed down the opposing lineup in a championship game his senior year. We'll never know what kind of future he might have had on the mound, but his powerful arm is still a very nice asset in the outfield. With top-end strength and accuracy, Buxton can control the opponent's running game once he reaches the ball. Which tends to happen pretty quickly… Running He's fast. If you haven't seen Buxton go from first to third before, it is something to see. His speed receives the highest rating on every scout's scale, because he is quite simply one of the fastest players in pro baseball. This pays dividends in many ways. Last year, between Low-A and High-A, he stole a whopping 55 bases on 74 attempts. That's a 75 percent success rate from a teenager who was by and large trying to run (with extreme frequency) against older and more experienced batteries. For the sake of comparison, Ben Revere -- one of the quickest players I've ever seen -- maxed out at 45 steals in a minor-league season. Buxton's blazing speed aids his offensive game in other ways, enabling him to beat out infield grounders and take extra bases routinely (his total of 18 triples demonstrates that well enough). Fielding That speed also allows the young center fielder to cover vast real estate in the outfield. When a Cedar Rapids game was televised on Fox Sports North last June, viewers were treated to a spectacular play in which Buxton sprinted backward and dove with full extension to haul in a seemingly uncatchable drive near the warning track. That's par for the course. In his article linked earlier, Normandin relays a quote from ESPN.com's MLB draft insider suggesting that Buxton could play "upper-echelon defense in center" if he went straight to the majors right now. He turned 20 two months ago. Power Of Buxton's five commendable tools, this is the one that's probably least developed, which is saying something considering that he racked up 49 extra-base hits and 12 homers in 125 games last year. Most analysts believe that he'll only increase his drive distance as he ages and adds mass, giving him the potential to be a perennial 30-homer threat in the majors. Even if he never reaches that level of long ball proclivity, Buxton's wheels will still get him around the bases plenty often. The Bottom Line Universally regarded as the best and most well rounded prospect in baseball, Buxton gives Twins fans reason to be absolutely giddy about the future. He carries all the prospect luster of a Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, and maybe more. Buxton still has plenty to prove. Again: No prospect is a sure thing. But this might be the closest we've ever seen, even as a 20-year-old who hasn't played above Single-A. He possesses such a deep, transcendent set of skills that even if certain aspects of his game don't fully translate to the majors, he should still end up being a highly valuable player on both ends of the field, with potential outcomes that range from occasional All-Star to annual MVP contender.

The rarest and most coveted type of prospect in the Minnesota Twins' system has been the hard-throwing, dominant starting pitcher. Shortcomings in this area have been reflected in the big-league rotation, where a lack of front-end talent has been a primary downfall during the club's recent stretch of misery. There is no greater need in this organization than a pitcher with the ability to develop into a legitimate No. 1 who can miss bats and regularly shut down opposing lineups. For that reason, I consider Alex Meyer the single most important prospect the Twins have, even if he's not necessarily the best (or second-best). [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Fast Heat is Meyer's calling card. That was evident when he was named Mr. Baseball in the state of Indiana as a senior in high school, finishing 8-0 with 108 strikeouts and a 0.95 ERA in 51 innings for Greensburg High School. Meyer achieved the outstanding results by relying on a hard fastball and a sharp spike curve that set him apart from his prep peers. Following Meyer's senior year, the Red Sox tried to fish him away from a commitment to the University of Kentucky by offering him a massive $2 million signing bonus as a 20th-round pick, but the righty elected instead to join the Wildcats. He improved his stock with three strong seasons at UK and was selected in the first round, with the 23rd overall pick, by the Nationals in the 2011 draft. Faster It's common for high draft picks out of college to move quickly when they reach pro ball, and Meyer was no exception. In his first season as a member of the Nationals system, he cruised through two levels of Single-A, finishing with a 2.86 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 139/45 K/BB ratio in 25 starts. Over 129 innings, he allowed only 97 hits, holding the overmatched opposition to a .603 OPS. After putting together a great first season in the pros, Meyer soon found himself on the move, traded to Minnesota in exchange for Denard Span. His rapid ascent continued in the new organization as he headed straight to Double-A and continued to excel while piling up strikeouts at a phenomenal rate. Fastest Though his breaking ball has drawn rave reviews as a devastating secondary pitch, and his changeup is coming along, Meyer's fastball is the star of the show. Bearing down from his sky-scraping 6'9" frame, the heater routinely hurtles toward the plate in the upper-90s with natural life, and as he's aged into his mid-20s Meyer has only added velocity. While watching him pitch in the Arizona Fall League a few months ago, ESPN.com's prospect wonk Keith Law reported that Meyer was routinely working at 98 mph with the fastball and touching 99 often. Many observers, including Law, noted that the lanky right-hander touched triple digits on multiple occasions. That's a level of gas the Twins haven't gotten from a starter since... ever? Meyer was a dominant force in New Britain last year, striking out 28 percent of the batters he faced. His arsenal is almost certainly good enough to play at the highest level right now, and at 24 he has reached an age where many top prospects break into the majors if they haven't already. Let's get him up, right? Not So Fast... There are a few factors that will likely delay Meyer's arrival, at least a bit. The first is the logjam in the major-league rotation, created by the addition of multiple veteran free agents and the presence of three returning hurlers who are out of options. Meyer has better stuff than anyone currently slated to be in the starting five, even by the admission of one of those five, but there's no rush to throw him in there. He hasn't pitched above Double-A and still hasn't been added to the 40-man roster. There are more urgent decisions to be made on other starters in front of him. And Meyer isn't without his own warts. He's had some command issues, though nothing too alarming. It's fairly typical for pitchers his size to have to refine their location over time. Just look at Randy Johnson, who -- at a lanky 6'10" and 225 lbs. -- had a similar build. He had a major problem with walks early in his career before ultimately finding his groove and becoming a Hall of Famer. Meyer's control problems haven't been nearly as pronounced as those of a young Johnson, but still you get the sense the Twins would like to see him hit his spots a little more consistently before they give him a shot. The larger concern is health. Meyer was limited to 13 starts with the Rock Cats last year due to a shoulder injury that cost him about two months of the season. He came back and pitched well at the end of the year, carrying that over into the AFL, but shoulder soreness can be a lingering malady for many pitchers. Meyer's durability will be a question mark until he enjoys a prolonged period of clean health, and even if he does he'll still probably be held to a strict innings limit this year after throwing only 78 frames in 2013 (about 100 if you include the AFL). All of this means that, while Meyer is likely to make his major-league debut sometime this year, we probably won't see the full impact of his ability before 2015 at least. Until then, the term "ace in the hole" seems more than fitting. Previous 2014 Twins Daily Top Twins Prospects: #10 – Trevor May #9 – Lewis Thorpe #8 – Jorge Polanco #7 – Josmil Pinto #6 – Jose Berrios #5 – Eddie Rosario #4 – Kohl Stewart

Now there's a funny question to ask. Terry Ryan, who has long been billed by his detractors as stingy and overly conservative when it comes to free agency, drawing criticism for exhibiting too much aggression in his approach to the open market? Not long ago, such a notion would have been difficult to comprehend. Yet, it is fair to wonder if the Twins made the correct choices now that we've seen Matt Garza sign with the Brewers for far less than expected while other top arms remain unsigned in mid-February, their asking prices dropping. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Ryan made franchise history in late November when he signed Ricky Nolasco to a four-year, $49 million contract. Around that same time, he reached agreement with Phil Hughes for three years and $24 million. Both deals were colossal when viewed through the scope of this organization's history, and even outside of that lens, they were bold moves that were labeled overpays in some corners of the baseball world. Given that Garza has now signed for nearly the same amount as Nolasco, who has the lesser resume, those claims gain more credence. But I would argue that even if the Twins did "overpay" for Nolasco and Hughes, the decisions still look good even in hindsight. The Money Doesn't Matter Could Ryan have saved some money by waiting out Nolasco and letting the market develop? It's very possible. But the GM paid what it took to bring him here, just as he did with Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey, and at the end of the day this club won't be needing to worry about saving a few million dollars any time soon. The biggest concern, especially after last year's fizzled efforts, was getting some things done. Statements Do Matter Perhaps the Twins could have gone the direction of a team like the Brewers, who waited the market out and scored a relative bargain when Garza finally settled on their offer. But that approach doesn't really have the same paradigm-shifting effect as signing two pitchers to unprecedented contracts by early December, does it? With many fans growing restless over a perceived sense of apathy from the front office, that kind of message needed to be sent. Draft Picks Also Matter Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez both remain unsigned despite coming off stellar seasons. The rest of the teams across the league, much like the Twins, are wary of surrendering a high draft pick in addition to a hefty salary commitment in order to add a starting pitcher with significant wear on his arm. Among the group of free agent pitchers who did not have compensatory picks attached, Nolasco and Hughes were among the most appealing. Also in that group were Garza, who signed in late January, and Bronson Arroyo, who finally signed last week. Arroyo's two-year deal with the Diamondbacks is worth more than double the one Pelfrey signed to round out the Minnesota rotation, and I highly doubt that Arroyo's production at ages 37 and 38 will warrant that sizable differential. That the Twins pulled things together so quickly with Nolasco and Hughes indicates that both pitchers -- at least to some extent -- wanted to be here. That's something that Ryan values, and not without good reason. While some might question the decision to strike so early in the offseason now that the pitching market has unexpectedly dragged on, seeing the indecisiveness and endless haggling going on elsewhere only makes me feel better about the Twins' front office taking the initiative to lock up two guys they coveted right away, even if that meant paying a little more.

Signed in the same year and from the same Dominican academy as Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco has largely been overshadowed ever since starting his pro career. Sano received a franchise-record $3.5 million signing bonus and has had a documentary crew exhaustively following his rise to the majors. Polanco signed for "only" $750,000 and didn't experience the type of immediate success that his uber-talented fellow countryman did. But, with back-to-back stand-out seasons under his belt, Polanco is quickly beginning to command attention in a system where competition for it is fierce. An Inauspicious Start When Polanco came to the United States, he carried with him a sterling defensive reputation. Baseball America's prospect guru John Manuel ranked him as the best defensive infielder in Minnesota's system in January of 2010, before he had played a single game stateside. Polanco's aptitude with the glove was never in question, but his bat was a point of uncertainty. The Twins acquired him as an undersized 16-year-old without much punch; in his first year, while splitting time between the Dominican Summer League and Gulf Coast League, he managed only eight extra-base hits (one homer) in 52 games, slugging .294. Spending his second year in the GCL, Polanco once again managed only one home run and finished with a .668 OPS. But at season's end he had only been 18 for about a month. The word "kid" is thrown around too often when referring to young baseball players and prospects, but that's what he was. And unlike Sano, who has been an imposing figure since he was about 12, Polanco looked it. The Power Arrives Here's the thing about kids: they grow. Polanco isn't going to be confused with Sano any time soon, but he has added bulk since first joining the organization, and it shows in his numbers. In his first two seasons, Polanco slugged .322. In 2012, he went to Elizabethton and slugged .514, racking up 22 extra-base hits in 51 games. In 2013, he made the move to full-season ball and enjoyed another stellar campaign at Cedar Rapids. Among qualifying second basemen in the Midwest League, Polanco was the youngest, but he ranked second in batting average (.308) and second in OPS (.813). Polanco's offensive transformation has been truly remarkable. Four years ago he could barely hit the ball out of the infield; last year he tallied 32 doubles and 10 triples as a 19-year-old in Single-A, ranking among the top 10 in the MWL in both runs scored and RBI. A switch-hitter who's always been known for good plate discipline and very low strikeout rates, Polanco is becoming a truly potent threat at the plate now that he's driving the ball more frequently. Where Does He Fit? That's a good question. Polanco has split time between shortstop and second base at every level, but the majority of his recent time has come on the right side and -- considering his lack of size and arm strength -- there's almost no chance he'll play short regularly in the majors. At second, his skills are highly lauded. But of course the Twins currently have an uncharacteristic stock of talent at that position. With Brian Dozier and Eddie Rosario both in front of him, Polanco would appear to have plenty of time to work his way through the system. When Will He Arrive? Despite starting their careers at the same time, and being just months apart in age, Sano and Polanco have followed very different paths. The former defies convention as an elite prospect and perhaps one of the greatest talents the Dominican Republic has produced. The latter is on a far more traditional progression, meaning that while Sano may be threatening for a big-league spot early this season, Polanco's ETA is much farther down the line. Ascending one level per year would place him in the majors around 2017. Unless he flat-out dominates in Ft. Myers and/or New Britain, I think it's unlikely we'd see that timetable accelerated much. But if he does come out raking at High-A this spring, he may join Rosario as a fast-tracked second base prospect who can drive the ball. That would put the Twins in an interesting position in a couple years, especially if Dozier doesn't falter.

* We've reached the end of January and Bronson Arroyo still hasn't found a home. In fact, according to the veteran right-hander, he still hasn't even received an official offer. As Jayson Stark notes in his column, that's rather surprising considering that Arroyo is one of only two MLB pitchers (along with Mark Buehrle) to log 199 or more innings in each of the last nine seasons. When baseball teams are committing huge sums of guaranteed money to pitchers, durability is a primary consideration, and few hurlers in the game can boast a track record that compares to Arroyo's. On top of that, he wasn't offered arbitration by the Reds so signing him would not require the forfeiture of a draft pick. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] And yet, there he sits. There were reports earlier in the offseason that the Twins were gaining momentum in talks with the righty, but apparently no contract was actually offered. There has been no recent buzz connecting the two sides. I've felt pretty firmly that the Twins were done adding pitchers after they signed with Mike Pelfrey (with the exception of a possible minor-league contract for someone like Johan Santana), so even if Arroyo's price keeps dropping, I can't see him ending up here. However, it's starting to look like some club is going to end up getting a reasonable deal on this proven veteran workhorse. I never would have guessed that at the outset of the offseason. * Ryan and the Twins continue to take fliers on former players who -- at least based on recent history -- appear to be washed up. The latest is Matt Guerrier, who joins Jason Bartlett and Jason Kubel as players to rejoin the organization in the wake of seasons that were marred by injury, poor performance or (in Bartlett's case) not actually playing. I've got no problem with the strategy. How could you? There's no risk here. The Twins are guaranteeing essentially nothing to these players -- not even a spot on the 40-man roster -- and each has shown at some point within the past few years that he can play at a high level. The Twins are already a little crowded in the bullpen, giving Guerrier a much tougher path to making the roster than Bartlett, who's trying to catch on in a shaky infield, or Kubel, who looks like the odds-on favorite to be regular DH despite his brutal 2013 campaign. Guerrier is presently rehabbing from flexor tendon surgery in his elbow last August. That's a fairly significant operation, especially for a 35-year-old, so he's not exactly a great bet to come back and make an impact. With that said, he has remained largely effective when on the mound, so if he can indeed make a full recovery, he could end up being a great depth grab. * The Twins announced on Thursday the unconditional release of Andrew Albers, officially clearing way for the left-hander to head to Korea and continue his career. The deal was held up a bit by some procedural complications, but it has been apparent for a while now that Albers was on his way out and -- as I wrote last week -- that's the right move for both him and the Twins. His departure leaves a spot open on the 40-man roster, but I wouldn't expect it to be filled very quickly. With just a couple weeks remaining until spring training, the Twins now have flexibility to make any late additions; a bench bat for the infield would seem to be the most likely. There is also a good chance they'll need space on the 40-man in order to add Kubel and/or any other non-roster invitees who emerge in spring training. Albers could have very well been the odd man out in such a scenario anyway.

Most Twins fans will recall that Torii Hunter was a vital part of Minnesota's turnaround and success in the 2000s, from his breakout season in '01 through his departure in '07. It's a little tougher to remember the beginning of Hunter's major-league career, which was far less glamorous. After drawing a handful of appearances with the Twins in 1997 and '98, Hunter made the full-time leap as a 22-year-old in 1999. During his first two seasons, he hit .267/.313/.393 with 14 homers in 234 games. He was demoted back to Triple-A in his second year. He looked overwhelmed. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Hunter rebounded after returning from his demotion in 2000, raising his OPS from .543 in late July to .726 at season's end. Since then, he has never finished with a mark below .762. He's been above .800 nine times (so far) and appeared in five All-Star games (so far). In other words, Aaron Hicks shouldn't get too dispirited over his rocky big-league debut in 2013. To be fair, Hicks' numbers (.192/.259/.338) are much uglier than Hunter's during his initial rough patch. However, Hunter was playing in a stronger offensive environment, so in context the difference is not as vast as it might appear (Hunter's OPS+ was 76; Hicks finished last year at 65). Both Hunter and Hicks entered the majors as athletic young center fielders with great promise. Both exhibited the type of tentative plate approach and proneness to mistakes that are typical of inexperienced rookies. So Hunter's ability to endure and put together a hell of a career should serve as an inspiration for Hicks and a placation for disenchanted fans. Then again, while the situations are similar in a general sense, there are certainly more red flags in the case of Hicks. Whereas Hunter was a visibly raw specimen who had struggled at times with controlling the strike zone in the minors, Hicks was touted as a polished product. But during his initial stint in the majors, his plate discipline -- a calling card throughout the minors -- was nowhere to be found. The rookie struck out at a much higher rate last year than Hunter has at any point in his career. In addition, Hicks did not respond as well (or at least as immediately) to his demotion. When Hunter was sent down in 2000 following a poor start to his sophomore campaign, he absolutely raked in Triple-A, putting up a 1.130 OPS in 55 games to earn a recall. He hit far better in the second half with the Twins and the rest is history. Hicks didn't experience the same kind of success following his demotion last year. He went to Rochester, hit .222/.317/.333 in 22 games, was not recalled in September and then skipped winter ball. It was about as bad a season as one could possibly imagine, and it left a sour aftertaste. But the bottom line with Hunter, and countless other players, is that early struggles at the highest level are hardly a death knell. That's especially true when you're talking about a 23-year-old who skipped Triple-A on his way to the bigs, as Hicks did. Patience is key. Yet the Twins can't and won't exercise endless patience. By this time next year, Byron Buxton may already be entrenched as the long-term center fielder, and there are plenty of emerging contenders to fill the corner spots. If Hicks is unable to bounce back quickly and reestablish himself as an organizational fixture, he could easily be passed up by other outfielders in a crowded system. That will make him one of the most intriguing players to keep an eye on in the early part of the 2014 season.