Nick Nelson

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3582[/ATTACH]Likely Starter: Chris Parmelee 2012 Stats: .229/.290/.380, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 18 R Potential Backups: Darin Mastroianni, Wilkin Ramirez, Ryan Doumit One of the big storylines for the Twins this year will be the trio of former first-round draft picks getting opportunities to prove their worth in the majors. Aaron Hicks is the headliner, and Trevor Plouffe has plenty of fanfare after launching 24 homers last season, but Chris Parmelee has slipped under the radar to some extent. Unlike Plouffe and Hicks, Parmelee has had a heck of a time finding a place to stick. The Twins cleared out two center fielders to make room for their prized prospect, and Plouffe has been handed the reins at multiple positions. Conversely, Parmelee has spent much of his time in the majors buried on the depth chart. His overall numbers in the big leagues thus far haven’t been impressive, but he’s never had a sustained chance to settle in. Now, that’s about to change. Clearly right field isn’t the ideal position for Parmelee. He’s slow-footed and will have to rely on quick reactions and smart routes to provide competent defense in the outfield. He’s better suited for first base and it’s possible he’ll land there before season’s end. But defense won’t be the measuring stick for this 25-year-old. Regardless of where he ends up – whether it’s right field, or first base, or DH – Parmelee is not going to be a defensive asset, so he needs to hit in order to last as a major-league regular. Fortunately, he’s shown plenty with the bat over the past couple seasons to inspire hope that he can be a long-term fixture in the lineup. In the earlier portion of his minor-league career, Parmelee was more serviceable than spectacular at the plate, which largely prevented him from gaining prominence as a prospect, but somewhere along the line at New Britain in 2011 he seemingly turned a corner. Late in the year, he joined the Twins as a September call-up and went on an obscene tear, posting a 1.035 OPS with four homers and six doubles in 21 games to instantly push himself into the team’s plans. He followed up the brilliant MLB debut with a 2012 season that was spent shuttling back and forth between Minnesota and Rochester. In the majors, he showed occasional flashes of promise but was largely ineffective, undoubtedly hampered by sporadic playing time. In Triple-A he was outright brilliant, raking to the tune of .338/.457/.645 with 17 homers in 64 games while walking as he often as he struck out. Among players who accumulated 250 or more plate appearances in the International League, he ranked first in batting average, OBP and slugging. It was the type of performance we’d never seen from Parmelee over a lengthy stretch: complete and utter dominance at the dish. Granted, that was Triple-A, and the majors are another matter entirely. But those kinds of numbers – from a 24-year-old who entered the season with only a smattering of at-bats above Double-A – can’t be overlooked. While it's probably best to remain cautious in our optimism, there are plenty of signs that Parmelee has begun realize the potential that the Twins saw when they drafted him 20th overall in 2006. The polished approach the plate. The sweet lefty swing. The ability to spray line drives to all fields. His next step will be transferring it to the big leagues. He’ll have the opportunity to do so in right field this season, but it’s a good bet he won’t remain there for too long. Either he’ll scuffle and be pushed aside for another of the organization’s numerous rising young outfielders (Joe Benson and Oswaldo Arcia are the leading short-term candidates) or he’ll handle the challenge and establish himself as Justin Morneau’s successor at first base. Wherever he's standing in the field, it is at the plate that Parmelee commands attention, and that's where he'll seek to make his mark this year. I, for one, am excited to see what he can do.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3575[/ATTACH]Likely Starter: Aaron Hicks 2012 Stats (AA): .286/.384/.460, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 100 R Potential Backups: Darin Mastroianni, Joe Benson Those who were eager to see an intense and compelling spring competition for the starting center field job have surely been disappointed. Aaron Hicks was the front-runner before camp got underway and then took firm hold of the job with his truly stellar exhibition performance. Joe Benson was demoted to the minors after struggling, and Darin Mastroianni has played well but has missed time. On Sunday, Ron Gardenhire made official what was already apparent: Hicks is going to be his center fielder and leadoff man on Opening Day. This brings a mix of excitement and uncertainty, with no shortage of either. Hicks is coming off an excellent season in Double-A, but he hasn't taken a single regular-season at-bat above that level, and hasn't always been a dominant offensive player in the minors. At various times, the switch hitter has been overly strikeout prone, has struggled to produce from the left side of the plate, and has been baffled by the adjustments of opposing pitchers. Those are real concerns when we're talking about a 23-year-old who's going to be thrown directly into the fire. But through all his ups and downs, Hicks has always exhibited a keenly discerning eye at the plate, along with terrific defense in center field. Those traits have been on display this month in Florida, and when you get past the (possibly fluky) power display and the general buzz surrounding him, they're likely the biggest factors in the club's willingness to have him bypass Triple-A and begin accruing MLB service time immediately. The wisdom of that decision can be questioned, but here's the bottom line: If Hicks struggles in his transition to the majors, he'll be sent to Triple-A knowing specifically what he needs to work on. At that point Mastroianni can ably take over and Hicks' service clock will pause, nullifying the entire concern. If Hicks doesn't get sent down at any point, it'll mean he's figuring things out and we'll probably all be too pleased to fret about manageable long-term ramifications. While Hicks has wrangled in the majority of attention this spring, Mastroianni has done nothing to play his way out of the conversation. The speedster is batting .364 and is 7-for-8 on stolen base attempts. His penchants for getting on base and creating terror once there have made him a scrappy asset, and with his defensive versatility he's an ideal fit as a fourth outfielder. The Twins seem aware of that, and they're content to keep him in that role while Hicks takes the spotlight. The progress of the rising young center fielder will be a central storyline in Minneapolis this year, and a similar one will play out four hours south, where elite prospect Byron Buxton figures to line up in Cedar Rapids. It says an awful lot about the state of the position in this organization that the team can trade away two valuable MLB center fielders during an offseason, then immediately plug in a rookie who has a chance to be better than either, but who himself might just be keeping the spot warm for one of the game's most heralded prospects.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3561[/ATTACH]Likely Starter: Josh Willingham 2012 Stats: .260/.366/.524, 35 HR, 110 RBI, 85 R Potential Backups: Darin Mastroianni, Ryan Doumit Since joining the Minnesota Twins last winter, Josh Willingham has been destroying long-standing conceptions in addition to baseballs. There was a belief that prominent free agents wouldn’t sign in Minnesota. Yet Willingham, coming off a big season in Oakland, came aboard on a favorable three-year deal that at the time looked like a bargain and now looks like an absolute steal. There was a belief that right-handed power hitters couldn’t consistently put the ball over the fence in Target Field’s spacious confines. Willingham christened his new home park with homers in three straight games, and ultimately totaled 21 jackjobs on the year at the Bullseye. There was a belief that Willingham’s historical durability issues made him a poor bet to stay healthy through a full season at age 33. Then he went out and set a career high with 145 games played, avoiding the disabled list for the entirety of the campaign. Terry Ryan has had a disturbingly high whiff rate on free agent signings, but with Willingham the general manager connected for a long shot into the left field seats. The slugging outfielder was everything the Twins could have hoped for in Year One of his contract, anchoring the cleanup spot through the summer while racking up homers and driving in runs at a fantastic rate. On a better team, he may have collected MVP votes. Now Willingham comes face to face with another conception: that a player aging into his mid-30s, coming off a career season marked by unprecedented health, will be hard-pressed to replicate the feat. That is undoubtedly true. Willingham’s first season in a Twins uniform was quite amazing, exceeding anything he’d previously accomplished in his career, and now he’s another year older at 34. But on the bright side, the imposing masher’s value comes more from sheer strength than speed or agility, and that’s not a skill that tends to deteriorate as much with age. Sure, he’ll probably have a tough time reproducing his numbers from 2012. That is the very nature of a career year. But prior to that season, Willingham had been a remarkably consistent hitter, so the smart money is on another .850 OPS, 25 HR type of season. The Twins will take that in a heartbeat. If there’s one area we could expect to see Willingham meaningfully decline this year (aside from games played) it would be his defense. That’s a bit worrisome since he’s already had his fair share of adventures in left field. It’d be no surprise if the Twins start plugging him in at DH more and more often over the course of the campaign, favoring younger and more fleet options in their ballpark’s expansive outfield. This brings us to the position’s depth, which is an interesting subject. At the outset of the season, Darin Mastroianni will likely serve as Willingham’s primary backup, but there are a number of moving parts that could come into play here. Joe Benson and Oswaldo Arcia are both prospects vying to emerge as viable MLB options at some point during the summer. Minor-league veterans Brandon Boggs and Wilkin Ramirez will be on hand. It’s not unthinkable that Trevor Plouffe could be nudged back to a corner outfield spot if he hits but his defense at third isn’t up to snuff. Any of those players would also be an option in right field, and that may be the more likely destination if Chris Parmelee ends up sliding to first. But, as mentioned above, Ron Gardenhire could become inclined over time to help his contact-heavy pitching staff by replacing Willingham in the field with a superior defender, and of course given his history there’s a good chance the seasoned slugger will be nicked up at some point. But make no mistake about it: Whether he’s occupying the area on defense or raining line drives with his ferocious pull-heavy swing from the batter’s box, left field belongs to Josh Willingham this year. And after his prodigious performance in that role last season, Twins fans should be willing set their conceptions aside and enjoy the show.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3539[/ATTACH]Likely Starter: Pedro Florimon 2012 Stats: .219/.272/.307, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 16 R Potential Backups: Eduardo Escobar, Jamie Carroll On April 1, Pedro Florimon will become the Twins' ninth Opening Day starter at shortstop in 10 years. Will he be able to become the first player since Cristian Guzman to hold the title for consecutive seasons? Magic 8-ball says: outlook not so good. The path that brought Florimon to the Twins is brushed with a hint of irony. He had been drafted and raised by the Orioles, who watched him rise through their minor-league system and even sip a cup of coffee in the majors before removing him from their 40-man roster after the 2011 campaign. Shortstop had been a problem for the Birds in past years, much like with the Twins, but luckily Baltimore had found its answer at the position in one J.J. Hardy. The Twins claimed Florimon, and subsequently outrighted him from their own 40-man roster, exposing him to waivers and giving every organization a shot at him. Twenty-nine teams passed. It seemed clear that at this point in time Florimon was considered a marginal talent, but the Twins continued to see something in him. And last year, others started to see it as well. Playing in Class-AAA Rochester, the shortstop was voted onto the International League All-Star team in July as folks took notice of his flashy glove work. His bat remained typically unimpressive, but Florimon’s glowing defensive reviews earned him his first extended big-league stint the following month. His 43 games with the Twins in 2012 were a mixed bag. Unsurprisingly, he was a mess at the plate, as evidenced by a .219 batting average and .579 OPS. His defensive contributions are a bit trickier to judge; no metric could be trusted in such a small sample and the eye test registered plenty of good and bad moments. Team brass liked what they saw enough to ignore the shortstop position during the offseason and appoint Florimon starter without any real competition, so there’s that. Clearly, the guy has the athleticism and tools to be a quality defensive shortstop. But he’ll need to be well above average -- and perhaps even elite -- to offer meaningful value as a regular starter, because he’s simply not going to hit. Over the past two years, between Double-A, Triple-A and the majors, he has struck out in 23 percent of his plate appearances. Such drastic contact issues are alarming, especially for a guy who offers little in the way of power or patience to make up for them. Odds are he’ll have a tough time maintaining even a .600 OPS, which would make him a liability in the lineup even at the No. 9 spot. If he plays great defense and the rest of the lineup carries weight, it’s probably a liability the Twins can afford. And that seems to be what they’re counting on. If Florimon can’t hack it, they’ll likely rely on his backup Eduardo Escobar – who carries a similar profile – in the same way. While it’s a bit frustrating to see such a blatantly bad hitter inked into the lineup, I can understand the team’s thinking. Shortstop has been a miserable pain point for the Twins in recent years, and while they stand little chance of extracting much offensive production there from any viable candidate, they can at least hope to shore the position up defensively. Plenty important, in light of the pitching staff’s ground ball tendencies. Florimon is as good a bet as any to fulfill that expectation, but he’s not a long-term answer. Identifying a player with a chance of becoming a lasting asset at the infield’s most important position should sit right next to starting pitching atop this organization’s list of ongoing priorities.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3531[/ATTACH]Likely Starter: Trevor Plouffe 2012 Stats: .235/.301/.455, 24 HR, 55 RBI, 56 R Potential Backups: Eduardo Escobar, Jamie Carroll Identifying a solution at the hot corner has turned into a game of hot potato for the Twins. Since Corey Koskie’s departure, the list of players who have had a hand on the gig is lengthy: Tony Batista, Mike Lamb, Joe Crede, Nick Punto, Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Danny Valencia and more. Unfortunately, in each case, the assignment has proven too hot to handle. Trevor Plouffe is the latest in this long line of contenders and represents the best hope for a long-term solution in the group. His bat, slow to develop in the early minors, has game has elevated dramatically over the past three years. As a 26-year-old on the rise and entering his prime, Plouffe is an intriguing commodity with offensive upside left in the tank even after erupting for 24 homers last year. Of course, hitting isn’t the make-or-break factor for Plouffe at this point. He needs to prove to the Twins that he can consistently make all the plays at third and remain in the infield after fizzling out at shortstop with a poor showing in 2011. Plouffe has all the tools to be an above-average third baseman, with a strong arm and good lateral reflexes, but his mechanics and his focus have sometimes come into question. Without a doubt, his fielding will be under heavy scrutiny from the coaching staff. To his benefit, Plouffe has now had an entire offseason to concentrate on preparing for one specific position, whereas the last few years have seen him slide all over the diamond. Hopefully this, along with the security of a guaranteed regular job, will help him take the steps needed to satisfy the defensive expectations that come along with manning third. Plouffe has already met the offensive expectations, even in a 2012 season that had its ups and downs. He started the year as a part-time infielder, scuffling at the plate with sporadic playing time, but eventually Danny Valencia’s departure created an opening at third and Plouffe settled in. He went on an insane midseason tear, piling up 18 homers in 39 games before a thumb injury cut down his playing time and production in the second half. Plouffe’s power surge was abrupt, but the concentrated distribution of his home runs does not diminish the accomplishment of launching 24 of them in 119 games as a 25-year-old with little major-league experience. And while it may have seemed this way to some, Plouffe’s long-ball proclivity didn’t come out of nowhere. Between Triple-A and the majors, he had gone deep 17 times in 2010 and 23 times in 2011. As he has matured and grown and adjusted, he has developed into a legitimate power hitter. As long as he can stay off the trainer's table, there is no reason to expect that to change this year. Clearly, Plouffe needs to put his health issues behind him. The thumb problem nagged him throughout the final months last year and he has already dealt with a recurring calf injury this spring. But if he can get past these afflictions, I have high hopes. My expectation is that he will hit at least 25 home runs, perhaps 30 or more, and that as he gets more comfortable at third base his skills – which enabled him to stick at shortstop throughout the minors – will start to shine through and he’ll become a quality defender there. Hopefully my optimism isn’t misplaced, because if Plouffe doesn’t work out there isn’t a whole lot to fall back on. If he does, the middle of this lineup could be truly formidable.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3521[/ATTACH]Likely Starter: Brian Dozier 2012 Stats: .234/.271/.332, 6 HR, 33 RBI, 33 R Potential Backups: Jamie Carroll, Eduardo Escobar From the outside, nothing about Brian Dozier’s career path suggested stardom was in the cards. In fact, there was little to suggest that he possessed the capability of turning into an MLB regular. A Southern boy out of Mississippi drafted in the eighth round, Dozier debuted in 2009 with good numbers as a college draftee competing against more inexperienced players in rookie ball. He followed that up with an unimpressive .700 OPS in his first turn at full-season ball, looking the profile of a future utility guy, at best. Over those first couple years, Dozier performed well enough to move up the ladder but not well enough to catch the eyes of scouts or prospect analysts (save for maybe our guy Seth). Then, in 2011, he experienced a breakout. Between Class-A Ft. Myers and Class-AA New Britain, the shortstop batted .320/.399/.491 with 54 extra-base hits while holding his own defensively. In isolation those numbers were excellent; with his age and experience level taken into account, less so. Still, for the first time he had exhibited the potential to become a legitimate major-league asset. Shortstops that can get on base and flash some pop are valuable, especially in this organization. It was around this time that the Twins’ front office – or, at least, certain members of it – became enamored with Dozier. We started to see quotes from organizational personnel touting his abilities, and fawning media portrayals from scribes being fed by team sources. After his 2011 season, it became clear that Dozier was firmly entrenched in the team’s plans, almost regardless of his performance. Last year in spring training there were reports of internal debates over whether or not the infielder, who had played only 78 games above Single-A, should open the season on the big-league roster. Ultimately, he was optioned to Triple-A, but it wasn’t long before he got the call despite mediocre numbers in Rochester. Dozier joined the Twins in early May and played in the majors for about three month. He looked over-matched, struggling to put together good at-bats and seemingly taking the bad ones out onto the field with him. With both sides of his game failing to show the improvement they’d hoped to see, the Twins knocked him back down to Triple-A in August, where he played poorly over the remainder of the campaign and failed to earn even a September call-up. Despite all that, Dozier has been hailed as essentially a lock to make the starting lineup from the outset this spring, this time at second base. Coaches in camp have remarked that he looks like a different player now. He has made several nice plays at second and although he's batting just .244 in exhibition play, a 5-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 45 plate appearances indicates that his plate approach has been sound. Carrying those strides into the games that count will be Dozier's challenge. All the club needs is for him to be steady with the mitt and adequate at the dish. Anything more would be a great bonus -- especially if he can establish himself as a legitimate No. 2 hitter -- but shouldn't be expected based on his performance up to this point. In 132 contests between Triple-A and the majors, he has batted .233 and struck out in 17 percent of his plate appearances. Despite all the verbal accolades he receives, Dozier has much to prove on the field. If he can't cut it, the Twins do have the luxury of a fairly reliable fallback plan. Jamey Carroll is in the second and final year of a contract he signed last offseason, and although he's hardly an offensive weapon (he slugged .317 last year) he's a steady player who makes the plays in the field and gets himself on base. Of course, he's also 39, so his ability to hold up for a full season could be in question. That's probably part of the reason he hasn't been viewed as a credible contender to start, along with the fact that feeding him at-bats does little for the club's rebuilding process. Looking down the farm for prospective second basemen, there's no one noteworthy in the pipeline until you reach Eddie Rosario, who hasn't played above Low-A and is no lock to stick in the infield. As such, the Twins are depending on Dozier to become a sturdy bridge, so it's hardly surprising that he's being handed the reigns, nor will it be surprising if he's given a pretty long leash.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3509[/ATTACH]Likely Starter: Justin Morneau 2012 Stats: .267/.333/.440, 19 HR, 77 RBI, 63 R Potential Backups: Chris Parmelee, Joe Mauer, Jeff Clement It’s been so long since we’ve seen Justin Morneau at his best, it’s easy to forget what “his best” even looked like. In the two-and-a-half seasons since his fateful concussion in Toronto, Morneau has shown only the occasion glimpse of elite hitting ability. Beyond the lingering effects of the head injury, which dragged on for well over a year and often prevented him from being able to work out at full capacity, Morneau has dealt with a barrage of dings, nicks and strains to nearly every other part of his body. It's like his voodoo doll fell in a blender. For such a sturdily built athlete, the first baseman has had a shockingly difficult time staying healthy. He was definition of durability in 2008, when he played in all 163 of Minnesota’s games, but since then he’s missed at least 27 games every season. Just when it seems like he’s gotten past another major ailment, something else invariably pops up to take a treacherous toll on his performance or sideline him. That’s why it’s understandable if you're dubious of Morneau right now, despite the fact that he is – by all accounts – as healthy as he’s been in years, and absolutely crushing the ball this spring. One year ago, Morneau was openly pondering the idea of retirement, feeling as though his nagging head and wrist issues may never disappear. Now, he's fresh off a brief but dominant stint with Canada in the World Baseball Classic and his decision to participate in the tourney was significant. Entering the final leg of his current contract, this is a hugely important season for Morneau's future; his health and production over the course of the coming campaign will dictate whether he lands a one-year make good or a sizable multi-year deal afterward. That he was willing to forgo the controlled pace in Ft. Myers and compete in a pressure-packed preseason environment signals a high level of confidence in the state of his 31-year-old body. Everything he’s done on the field over the past month has helped to legitimize that confidence. In a handful of games played with the Twins, Morneau was locked in, smashing hard liners to all fields and knocking in runs. In 20 at-bats, he tallied three doubles, a homer and eight RBI, bringing back memories of his heyday from 2006 through 2009 when his total of 470 RBI ranked him fourth in baseball, behind only Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez. While batting cleanup for the Canadians in the WBC, he continued to rake, collecting seven hits (three doubles) in 11 at-bats for a cool .636 batting average. Put all the pieces together, and you've got a healthy, confident former MVP who's playing for a contract. If the guy takes you by surprise this year, you haven't been paying attention. Of course, to come full circle, it would not be a surprise if health again became a problem for the battered slugger. Nor would it be a surprise if he were traded at some point during the summer. Therefore, depth here is important. Chris Parmelee, who will open the season in the outfield, looms as the heir apparent, if all goes to plan. He's in line to replace the veteran at first next year and circumstances could hasten that process, although Parmelee will need to hit. Jeff Clement, the former premier prospect turned 29-year-old flameout, could eventually become an option. Chris Colabello, a fellow minor-leaguer journeyman who's had a pretty nice WBC himself, is a long-shot contender. But, as is usually the case, Minnesota's system is short on outstanding first base prospects. They're counting on a big year from Morneau, who could become an appealing trade chip while also helping keep the Twins relevant. But, as the future of the position is concerned, they're counting on a big year from Parmelee even more.

Likely Starter: Joe Mauer 2012 Stats: .319/.444/.587, 10 HR, 85 RBI, 81 R [ATTACH=CONFIG]3473[/ATTACH] Potential Backups: Ryan Doumit, Drew Butera, Chris Herrmann Joe Mauer wasn't officially honored as the American League's Comeback Player of the Year last season, losing out to Fernando Rodney, but he had an awfully good case. His 2011 campaign was as tumultuous as that of any player in baseball, seeing him descend from idol to villain in the eyes of a fan base frustrated by vague injuries, disappointing on-field performance and lacking accountability. Magnifying all these issues were the backdrops of a disastrous season for the club and a massive contract that was just getting underway. In 2012, Mauer put it all behind him. Some worried that the seeds of trouble sprouting in that '11 season would blossom into long-term limitations but last year it was like none of that stuff had ever happened. Mauer looked like his old self, spraying line drives all over the field and competing for a batting title down to the final days of the season. Rejuvenated, he posted the third-highest home run total of his career. As if to prove a point about the condition of his legs, he attempted 12 stolen bases -- as many as the previous four years combined -- and set a career high for games played with 147. The one thing that changed, relative to past successful seasons, was a dramatic reduction in his workload at catcher. Behind the plate for 83 percent of his starts in 2010, Mauer saw that number drop to 50 percent as his playing time at DH and first base shot up. This approach made sense for two principal reasons: first, caution with his battered legs was clearly warranted; second, moving Mauer out from behind the plate didn’t hurt the lineup the way it has in the past due to the presence of an offensive asset as the backup. Ryan Doumit looked like a great fit when the Twins signed him to a one-year deal prior to the 2012 season, and he worked out so well that the club extended his contract for two years in the middle of the summer. He’ll be back to help ease Mauer’s workload, while both players can periodically fill in elsewhere. With those two locked in, the question is whether a third backstop will accompany them on the roster. That has largely been assumed, since Drew Butera has held down a spot three years running and re-signed for $700,000 during the offseason, but Ron Gardenhire has hinted that he’s ready to snap his long-standing trend and carry two catchers in favor of a more potent bench. Without Butera weighing the position down, the Twins could realistically boast the best offensive output of any team in the league at catcher, especially if the prime-aged Mauer takes another step forward with 2011 shrinking in the rearview mirror.