Nick Nelson

Age: 25 (DOB: 10/23/87) 2012 Stats GULF: 14.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 16/4 K/BB, 0.89 WHIP A: 7.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 7/1 K/BB, 1.00 WHIP AAA: 6.2 IP, 9.45 ERA, 10/1 K/BB, 1.80 WHIP ETA: 2013 Turn the calendar back two years. It's spring training 2011 and the Twins are coming off a second straight division championship. Kyle Gibson is an attention magnet in camp. He's coming off a spectacular pro debut that saw him fly through three levels of the minors, knocking on the door of the majors by September. He's recently been ranked by Baseball America as the 34th-best prospect in ball – 15th among pitchers. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Gibson works his way into a couple big-league exhibitions and the Twins publicly toy with the notion of bringing him north, but ultimately decide to let him gain more experience in Triple-A. There is no room in the rotation for him. Yep, it was a different time. The rest is history. Gibson goes to Rochester and pitches decently but begins struggling with elbow pain midway through the summer. In August tests reveal a partial tear of the UCL and, a month later, he undergoes Tommy John surgery. Fast forward seventeen months. The right-hander now returns to Fort Myers hoping to once again establish himself as the story of spring training. Considering his talent and the statement he made with his performance after returning to competition late last year, it would be no surprise if he does. The Good We can't glean much from the statistics compiled by Gibson last year in 13 regular-season outings split between rookie ball, Single-A and Triple-A. Twenty-eight innings is too small a sample for any conclusions, especially when many of them are pitched against teenagers getting their first taste of pro ball. But as you look over Gibson's results, you can't help noticing the strikeout-to-walk ratios. Between his rehab stint and his six starts in the Arizona Fall League, the recovering righty notched 61 whiffs with only 14 free passes in 51 1/3 innings. That's a 10.7 K/9 rate against a 2.4 BB/9 rate. Tremendous. When Gibson took the minor leagues by storm in 2010, missing bats and limiting walks were both parts of his formula. But his penchant for inducing ground balls is what set him apart. At 6'6", his ability to locate a sinking fastball and sharp slider down in the zone creates an impressive downward plane that prevents opposing hitters from lifting the ball often. If his track record holds, Gibson could put up elite grounder rates approaching 60 percent. During his appearances in the fall league, his fastball was clocked between 93-95 mph, indicating that his velocity has returned (and then some, maybe). The nice thing about Gibson is that he's got a relatively high floor. He might not have truly dominant stuff, which is why you'll rarely see him labeled as a potential ace, but his skill set damn near guarantees at least some measure of major-league success. As long as he can stay healthy – and you'd hope the early reconstructive surgery will put him on that path – he seems like as safe a bet as there is to become a steady constant in the Twins' rotation for the next several years. The Bad Twins fans know as well as anyone that major elbow surgery can have lasting deleterious effects on a young pitcher. Francisco Liriano was never quite the same again after undergoing Tommy John surgery as a 22-year-old, and he's hardly the only example. By going under the knife and essentially losing a full year just as he was on the cusp of the majors, Gibson missed out on crucial development time. Now, he's a 25-year-old with no major-league experience who has logged only 123 innings over the past two seasons combined. And while it's easy to find positives in Gibson's peripherals, he simply hasn't achieved sustained results yet above Double-A. In 23 total starts for Rochester, he has registered a 4.67 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. While his performance last season must be viewed as a success overall, one can't ignore that he was knocked around a bit in his two starts at Triple-A, and then struggled after a hot start in Arizona. Gibson hurled 10 innings of one-run ball in his first two AFL starts, but then yielded 13 runs over 13 1/3 innings (8.77 ERA) in his final four, posting an uncharacteristically ugly 12-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Said Gibson of his late skid: "I feel like if I had better command I would really feel good about my Fall League experience, but since I lost my command at the end that was a little frustrating." Rust from a year off? Fatigue catching up? Simply a rough patch? Or are there more troubles on the horizon for Gibson as he learns to pitch with a new ligament while adjusting to competition at the highest level, which he – unlike most 25-year-old top prospects – hasn't had the opportunity to face at all? The Bottom Line By all appearances, Gibson is physically back to where he was before surgery, at which point he was arguably the Twins' best prospect. That he finds himself outside the Top 5 this year is a credit to the advancement of the system since he went down, but also a caution that the return from Tommy John surgery isn't always – or even often – smooth. [TD’s Top Ten Prospects: #10: Max Kepler] [TD’s Top Ten Prospects: #9: Trevor May] [TD's Top Ten Prospects: #8: J. O. Berrios] [TD's Top Ten Prospects: #7 Eddie Rosario]

A thick coat of snow fell upon Target Field over the weekend, transforming the structure into a lifeless, cold and white blob. On Tuesday, temperatures in the Twin Cities rose toward 30 and the clouds dissipated. Bathed in sun, with green plastic seat-backs peeking through the melting snow, the ballpark started to look like… well, a ballpark. This coming weekend, temperatures in Minnesota will near the 40s while pitchers and catchers unpack their bags in Fort Myers. Spring is coming. Normally, this is a time of year marked by unbridled optimism from fans. It's a fresh season with a new assortment of players and an infinite range of possible outcomes. Yet, right now the mood in Twins Territory is distinctly vanilla. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] In his latest blog post on StarTribune.com, Howard Sinker broke down (and by that I mean dismantled) the 2013 Twins, spinning a grim yet realistic picture of what folks can expect in the short term from this rebuilding club. Sinker laid out the question marks attached to the Twins across the board. His points are all valid. There's too much reliance on untested youth, too many positions that are complete unknowns, too many lotto tickets in the rotation. It's a fair critique that, at least to some extent, conveys the feelings of the fan base at large. Most people can see the long-term benefit to the Twins' offseason moves and are excited for what's to come when the loaded farm system (ranked this week by ESPN's Keith Law as the second-best in baseball) begins placing graduates. But the lip-service paid to the 2013 roster – even with flexibility to make legitimate additions – after two straight 95-loss seasons has been disheartening. There's a tendency to translate that disappointment into pessimism, but even without major external reinforcements, the Twins are in a position where they could easily surprise. When you think of perennial cellar-dwellers (a designation that the Twins would certainly earn with a third straight finish at the bottom), you don't usually picture a team whose lineup is built around two former MVPs, both under the age of 32. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are by all accounts as healthy as they've been in years, and that's a big deal. The Twins are taking gambles at a number of positions, but most carry significant upside. Trevor Plouffe, Chris Parmelee, Aaron Hicks, Brian Dozier, Liam Hendriks, Kyle Gibson, Mike Pelfrey, Vance Worely and others might not all play up to their potentials, but if a handful of them do it's enough to move the needle. The pitching staff is bound to improve, and the offense can be above-average. The division, outside of Detroit, isn't overly intimidating. Last year, two American League teams improved their records by 20-plus games from the previous season despite playing in divisions with multiple powerhouses. The Twins have a clearer path to relevancy than did the Orioles or Athletics. Realistically, I'm not looking for that same type of storybook season here. But with more good breaks than bad, the Twins can be a .500 team or better. If it's hard to remember what "more good breaks than bad" feels like after the last two years, check the previous ten for a reminder. Also keep in mind that one auxiliary benefit of the organization's frugal approach this offseason will be tons of flexibility to make additions in-season, meaning that if the Twins are anywhere near contention midway through the summer, high-priced starters being shopped in salary dumps could be in play. Do I think a solid lineup along with an – at-best – average pitching staff should be viewed as favorites to knock off the Tigers and take the division? Absolutely not. But I'd be satisfied if the Twins hung around .500 for most of the campaign, playing meaningful games into the final months and providing promising future signs in a bridge year. There's nothing unrealistic about that scenario, in my mind. But maybe it's just the sunshine talking.

Age: 19 (DOB: 2/10/93) 2012 Stats APPY: 59 G, .297/.387/.539, 10 HR, 49 RBI, 40 R, 7/7 SB ETA: 2017 By the time he's done playing, Max Kepler might be known as one of the greatest major-league hitters ever to come out of Europe. And he's the tenth-best prospect for the Twins? That seems crazy. But take a look at this all-time European All-Star team that Dave Schoenfield put together a couple years ago. There are some good careers in there, but unless you're a real hardcore, you might not recognize a name other than Bert Blyleven (who lived in the Netherlands for all of two years). Clearly, the continent hasn't been a traditional pipeline for baseball talent. But the Twins saw something they liked in the 16-year-old Kepler out of Germany, and handed him the largest bonus ever for a European ($800,000) just after the window opened for international signings in 2009. It was a bold move made possible by an unprecedented spending spree for the Twins – one that led to Miguel Sano's signing a few months later. And while the slugging Dominican gets all the fanfare, the aggressive bid on Kepler is quickly beginning to pay dividends as well. The Good Kepler adjusted slowly to the professional ranks. That's understandable for a high school aged kid acclimating to a new country. But last year he turned a corner in his second turn at Elizabethton, pacing the Appalachian League with a .539 slugging percentage and markedly improving his plate discipline. The lefty-swinging outfielder has a well rounded skill set with the abilities to run, catch and hit for both average and power. The son of two prominent ballet dancers, he's an athletically gifted kid who is already listed at 6'4" as a teenager. When he first signed with the Twins, Baseball America's Ben Badler picked up the following tidbit: His emergence last year is a sign that the on-field performance may be catching up with the innate ability. When that happens to guys with such immense physical upside, stars are born. The Bad The big numbers in E-town were eye-catching, but they came on the heels of two pedestrian efforts to launch his pro career. In 2010 Kepler posted a .689 OPS in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League and in 2011 he registered a .714 mark after stepping up to the Appy League. Between the two partial seasons, he totaled one home run while whiffing at a 22 percent rate. As mentioned above, it's hard to hold those struggles against him because he was 17 and 18, and he blew all previous numbers out of the water last year. Still, it bears noting that he was repeating the same level and – thanks to his early start – was more experienced in the pro ranks than much of his competition. The Bottom Line Kepler has all the physical tools to be a quality major-league outfielder and last year at Elizabethton he backed them up with outstanding production. He remains on the fringe of our Top 10 because much uncertainty surrounds him yet, but a successful transition to full-season ball in Cedar Rapids this year would have him propelling up this list.

We’ve reached that time of year, just before camps in Florida and Arizona officially get underway, where many publications release their annual top prospect lists. Since he was recently in town for TwinsFest and his name has appeared near the top of many of these lists, Miguel Sano has been buzzing in local baseball circles. La Velle E. Neal III recently remarked with some astonishment about Sano’s size when he saw him, noting that the 19-year-old (!) will be listed at 6’4” and 235-240 lbs this year. Naturally, this leads back to questions about the top prospect’s chances of sticking at third base, where men of that stature are somewhat uncommon. Don’t believe me? Take a look at the height and weight measurements for third basemen across the majors last season (numbers courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com): [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] NYY: Alex Rodriguez 6'3" 225 lbs BAL: Wilson Betemit 6'2" 220 lbs TB: Evan Longoria 6'2" 210 lbs TOR: Brett Lawrie 6'0" 215 lbs BOS: Will Middlebrooks 6'4" 225 lbs DET: Miguel Cabrera 6'4" 240 lbs CWS: Kevin Youkilis 6'1" 220 lbs KC: Mike Moustakas 6'0" 215 lbs CLE: Jack Hannahan 6'2" 210 lbs MIN: Trevor Plouffe 6'2" 205 lbs OAK: Brandon Inge 5'11" 190 lbs TEX: Adrian Beltre 5'11" 220 lbs LAA: Alberto Callaspo 5'9" 200 lbs SEA: Kyle Seager 6'0" 195 lbs WAS: Ryan Zimmerman 6'3" 230 lbs ATL: Chipper Jones 6'4" 210 lbs PHI: Placido Polanco 5'10" 190 lbs NYM: David Wright 6'0" 210 lbs MIA: Hanley Ramirez 6'2" 230 lbs CIN: Scott Rolen 6'4" 245 lbs STL: David Freese 6'2" 220 lbs MIL: Aramis Ramirez 6'1" 205 lbs PIT: Pedro Alvarez 6'3" 235 lbs CHC: Luis Valbuena; 5'10" 195 lbs HOU: Chris Johnson 6'3" 220 lbs SF: Pablo Sandoval 5'11" 240 lbs LAD: Luis Cruz 6'2" 220 lbs ARI: Ryan Roberts 5'11" 185 lbs SD: Chase Headley 6'2" 200 lbs COL: Chris Nelson 5'11" 205 lbs As you can see, only two regulars at the hot corner – Miguel Cabrera and Scott Rolen – were in the same physical class as Sano, who as a teenager might not even be done growing yet. Cabrera was one of the worst defenders in the league at the position, although it bears noting that the aging Rolen was considered a stellar fielder in his prime, so his size wasn’t necessarily an inhibitor. Given that Sano is already bigger than almost any third baseman in the majors, at age 19, and has demonstrated shoddy glovework thus far in his pro career, the odds seem heavily stacked against him remaining at his current position, especially with an organization that values steady defense more than most. A switch to first base or an outfield corner wouldn’t preclude him from becoming a star caliber player, but it will ding his value to some degree. One way or another, this much is clear: Unlike Brian Dozier, Sano really is the next big thing. Literally.

Will the Twins’ de facto ace retain his label as the club’s top starter or descend into mediocrity this year? Let us take a deeper look. 2012 Recap Diamond gained little consideration for a big-league job in spring training after going 5-19 with a 5.44 ERA between Triple-A and the majors in his first year with the organization. So, he reported to Rochester and started his season on a tear, going 4-1 with a 2.60 ERA while flashing much improved control in his first six starts. That was plenty to earn him an invitation up north, where a bloodied staff was looking anywhere it could for bandages.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The lefty was that and more, rattling off a 5-1 record and 1.61 ERA in his first seven starts. He continued to pitch well deep into August before a bit of a rocky finish. Diamond was bound to cool off, but the let-up didn't come in the form of a ghastly regression to the mean, as he still finished with very strong numbers. At the end of the year, Twins brass made it clear that Diamond was the only starter who had guaranteed himself a spot on the 2013 staff. In a season where just about everything that could possibly go wrong in the rotation did so, Diamond was a breath of fresh air. Contrasting sharply with most of his injured or fledgling counterparts, he rebounded from a brutal year to become a shockingly steady force. To say he was the rotation's rock would be an understatement; he threw 64 more innings than any other Twin despite spending his first month in Triple-A. It's a success story that the club will cling to as they hope to get lucky with several wild cards this year. Why He’ll Be Worse This is a pretty straightforward case for anyone with an understanding of statistical probabilities in baseball. Diamond held one of the lowest strikeout rates among all MLB starters, but was able to limit the damage on balls in play by inducing lots of grounders and handing out very few walks. His GB rate (53.4 percent) was among the top ten in the majors and his walk rate (1.6 BB/9) was the lowest in the American League. Diamond has posted strong grounder rates throughout his career but it's tough to be elite in that category from year to year, especially as hitters make their adjustments. His phenomenal walk rate was out of character with previous norms; in fact, his mediocre control in the Braves organization is probably a big reason they were willing to part with him. To turn around and become one of the most prolific strike-throwers in the majors is either a remarkable triumph of dedication and coaching, a fluke, or both. Any regression in walk rate or BABIP will decrease his margin for error, at which point an inopportune extra-base hit here and there can dramatically change his results. It's the nature of a pitch-to-contact hurler relying on control and grounders. As a relevant example, think of how volatile Carlos Silva was from year to year. Why He’ll Be Better Let’s be honest: there’s almost no chance Diamond will be better than he was last year. While everything was going wrong for everyone else in the rotation, everything was going right for him and the odds that he’ll be able to match his core statistical marks from 2012 are extremely low. What fans and coaches are hoping is that Diamond can maintain, or regress modestly, and remain a quality mid-rotation starter while logging 200 innings. As long as his BABIP doesn’t skyrocket and he can keep the BB/9 mark down, that’s a perfectly realistic goal. The ground balls are more than likely going to be there, as he has demonstrated throughout his career a keen ability to keep the ball down, which also prevents many from leaving the park. Conclusion There's a conception that stat-driven analysis is overly focused on strikeouts, and fails to give much consideration to any other aspect of pitching performance. But Diamond's 2012 season was the perfect example of the things a stat-head would look for in a guy that doesn't rack up a lot of whiffs. He pelted the lower regions of the strike zone, resulting in weaker contact and few free passes. This approach also yielded extremely low pitch counts (he never totaled more than 104 in a start despite completing seven-plus innings 13 times), and you know how much the Twins appreciate that. Diamond's successful 2012 season was characterized by his ability to throw strikes, get ahead in counts and challenge hitters. Will the new season establish his strides in those departments as trend or mirage? That's the question that could very well dictate whether he's an asset or a liability.

"What in the hell is a Pedro Florimon?" -- professional baseball writer, doing research on projected starting lineups — Grant Brisbee (@mccoveychron) January 25, 2013 The above tweet from the wise-cracking and hilarious SB Nation scribe Grant Brisbee was undoubtedly written after he glanced over projected starting lineups across the majors and did a triple-take when he came to Minnesota's shortstop position. He's hardly the first. I've had multiple national baseball writers contact me this offseason asking some variation of, "The Twins aren't really going to give this guy a starting job, are they?" [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] All I can do is shrug. Florimon's career numbers suggest he is not a major-league caliber player, and he certainly didn't look the part last year, but Terry Ryan has treated shortstop as a non-concern this winter. Possibly the GM is open to trying Brian Dozier there again, or considers Jamey Carroll an acceptable fallback, but Ryan hasn't even openly pondered bringing in someone to compete at the position. He's repeatedly talked about doing so with Trevor Plouffe at third. It's not clear what Florimon has done to earn this billing. He was waived by a 93-loss Orioles team after the 2011 season, and then passed on by 29 organizations when the Twins claimed him and outrighted him from their 40-man roster. He went on to up sub par numbers between Double-A and Triple-A, striking out at a Gomez-esque 25 percent rate, and then came up and played poorly with the Twins for a couple months. At TwinsFest over the weekend, Ryan told a media luncheon that Florimon is "the athlete you look for" at shortstop. That may very well be true, and ostensibly the hope is that he'll develop as he ages into his prime and become a useful long-term cog on this rebuilding roster. But with Florimon, that really is a stretch. He's 26 and he's totaled over 3,000 professional plate appearances. He has established himself very firmly at the plate as a strikeout machine with minimal power and in the field as a flashy, skillful defender who makes a ton of mistakes. In order to provide meaningful value, he'll need to offer enough on defense to make up for all the outs he's likely to give away on offense. That's a tall order. He might be the biggest long shot the Twins have taken at the position since Cristian Guzman's departure, and that's saying something.

He’s still lurking out there. As the offseason nears its close and spring training rapidly approaches, Matt Capps remains a free agent. Since the Twins bought out his 2013 option back in October, there has been very little buzz surrounding the right-handed reliever. At this point, one would have to believe that he could easily be signed to a fairly cheap one-year deal. Should the Twins be the ones to give it to him? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] At the beginning of the offseason, Terry Ryan surprisingly stated that his No. 2 priority behind starting pitching was the bullpen. Unless you're confident that Rich Harden is going to become a quality reliever or one of the various iffy minor-league arms they brought in will pan out, nothing has really been done to address that unit as of yet. Capps invokes a lot of strong emotions for Twins fans – mostly negative. The team gave up too much to acquire him in the first place and spent too much to retain him, myopically focusing on his experience as a closer rather than viewing him as what he is: a perfectly serviceable yet unspectacular righty arm for the late innings. Now, the Twins have their closer in Glen Perkins, and overpaying for Capps is no longer a real concern. Relievers don’t typically land big contracts in late January, and even if Terry Ryan were to pay a bit more in a one-year pact than we’d like, it doesn’t really matter as that money isn’t going to prevent him from making any moves he would have otherwise. There are enough intriguing arms in the mix for relief jobs this year that one could envision the Twins cobbling together a decent unit without any additions, but Capps would immediately become one of their most established players and would increase the margin for error if, say, Jared Burton’s injury issues reemerge or Casey Fien regresses. Capps wasn’t a great closer and his strikeout rate has plummeted in the past two seasons, coinciding with a velocity drop, but his 1.17 WHIP during that span is quite solid and he’s still under 30. As long as there aren’t major lingering questions about his health, he seems like a good bet to be an average middle reliever at worst, and a reliable setup man at best. That would make him an asset. Even if his ability to protect leads ends up mattering little in what’s shaping up to be another down year, a bounceback campaign would position him to be flipped for something of value around the deadline (albeit not a Wilson Ramos). Capps has caused me and others plenty of frustration over the past few years, but if you take away all that history he looks like a fine, logical option for a team looking to shore up its rotation with a solid veteran. The Twins are familiar with Capps and clearly value his presence in the clubhouse. Why not go out and get him, adding a slight jolt to this winter of inaction?