Nick Nelson

As Miguel Sano gets his rehab stint underway and prepares to return to the Twins, there is considerable focus on the imperative of getting him out of right field and back to third base. However, Sano is hardly the only piece that needs to be sorted out in a crowded infield situation.It is a rare thing when fans and analysts across Twins Territory reach a consensus on any subject, but we seem to have that on the issue of Sano's defensive position. The hazardous experiment of trotting him into the outfield needs to end, and really, it needs to happen as soon as he comes off the disabled list. Plouffe might miss a little time with a groin strain that he suffered on Thursday, and Byung-Ho Park may be in line for a demotion to Triple-A. These would potentially create short-term openings for Sano to escape from right field, but only that. Trading Plouffe and permanently opening the hot corner for the big young slugger should be a high priority for Terry Ryan right now. Unfortunately, that is just one of several predicaments that the general manager and his staff must untangle. While calls for change are rising in volume, Ryan is still in charge and this is his chance to make some smart moves and establish a clear plan for the roster going forward. But his task is not easy. Presently, it looks like Eduardo Nunez is going to be Minnesota's lone All-Star Game representative, even though he doesn't have a regular position. Nunez is already 29 and probably not a part of the long-term plan, but he should be playing regularly, if only on the basis of merit and bolstering trade value. Yet, we've already discussed the clogged situation at third base, and I can't see any good argument for starting Nunez over either of the middle infielders. Eduardo Escobar has clearly established himself as a better shortstop over the past couple of seasons, and he has been on an absolute tear in June, entering Thursday's game with a .394/.417/.727 line. He should be playing every day. Brian Dozier, too, has gotten it going after a slow start. Since being benched for a couple of days at the height of his slump in late May, the second baseman has rebounded tremendously, reaching base in 26 of 27 games and raising his OPS by 140 points. Even though Nunez lacks a true home on the field, Paul Molitor has found ways to keep him in the lineup, so it's not a big deal. The real problem is Jorge Polanco. The heralded 22-year-old prospect has shown promising signs whenever he's gotten a chance to play in the majors, with an .861 OPS and excellent plate discipline, but those chances have been few and far between, because the Twins can't find a place for him. Since his latest demotion to Triple-A, which coincided with Escobar's return from a hamstring injury, Polanco has hit .310/.372/.513. It continues to be blatantly obvious that he doesn't belong in the minors, especially when you consider that the Twins are running out of opportunities to send him there. This is Polanco's last option year, so next spring he'll either need to be carried on the MLB roster or lost to another club. The last thing this team wants is another Oswaldo Arcia situation, where they have to give up a former top prospect for basically nothing. Clearing out this logjam is undoubtedly going to require trading players away. But outside of Plouffe, these guys all have value that makes it difficult to justify losing them with no significant return. So in the scope of this rebuild, Ryan needs to find good opportunities and strike. Maybe Nunez will interest a contender as a versatile glove with a quality bat. Perhaps Escobar's hot streak, combined with his strong play over the past two years, will convince some team that he could be their answer at shortstop (though it's not clear that either Nunez or Polanco can play the position sufficiently). Heck, now that he has rebounded, maybe Dozier will draw some suitors, though I have my doubts about Ryan's willingness to give him up barring a huge return. Adding Polanco to any package – say, with Plouffe – could spice up the return. It seems counterintuitive for a team in Minnesota's position to be unloading prospects, but Polanco's option status makes this another instance where the Twins simply cannot afford to be patient and wait for his opportunity to arise. This much is certain, Ryan needs to be proactive and take action. The trade deadline is about five weeks away. If you were in the GM's shoes, what would be your approach as we head into July? Click here to view the article

I remember writing at the time about Hardy supposedly being "injury prone" http://twinsfanatnicks.blogspot.com/2010/12/myth-of-injury-prone.html Just a ludicrous notion. A guy hurts his wrist sliding into a base so he's injury prone? Nonsense. We saw how that worked out when he averaged 147 games over the next 4 years with Baltimore. The Gomez trade would have actually been a good one if they'd held on and gotten that production. Instead it was just a total disaster. Ugh. Why do you guys have to get me all riled up thinking about Hardy?

Very true, Seth. The system is set up so that it's hard for teams to wait out late bloomers, unless you want to suffer through the extended growing pains. That's more palatable, though, when it's a stellar defensive center fielder like Gomez compared to a one-trick pony like Arcia or a fringy reliever like Guerra.

Recently in Anaheim, a familiar figure took the mound to face the Twins. This particular player, like many others, serves to remind us of the fickleness of prospects in baseball. It's a reality that is weighing heavily on this rebuilding Minnesota club.One week ago, Deolis Guerra tossed the seventh and eighth innings for the Angels in a blowout loss against the Twins at home. You may recall that Guerra was once a key piece in the package given up by the Mets to acquire Johan Santana, all the way back in 2007. At the time, Guerra was only 18 years old. Coming off a solid season at Single-A, he was ranked by Baseball America as the 35th-best prospect in the game. With a big sturdy build, developing velocity and an already eye-catching changeup, Guerra oozed potential. Having already reached High-A as a teenager, the young righty was on an accelerated path to the majors. The hope was that he would become an impact addition to Minnesota's rotation within a few years, helping justify the loss of an elite pitcher. Of course, that's not how it played out. Guerra struggled, stalled, got hurt, switched roles, switched organizations multiple times. Nearly a decade after being sent to the Twins in the Santana blockbuster, Guerra is only now beginning to establish himself in the major leagues. He was knocked around last year during his first exposure to the big leagues as a member of Pittsburgh's bullpen, but is showing some very positive signs now as a reliever for the Angels, with a 3.00 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and 15-to-0 K/BB ratio in 15 innings. If Guerra continues on this path, it obviously won't turn out as a best-case scenario for a hurler who was once considered to have top-of-the-rotation upside. But it won't be a worst-case scenario. At least he will end up being a useful major league player, which is more than many highly rated prospects can ever say. Guerra is a case study in the volatility of prospects, and the length of time that it can sometimes take before they really figure it out at the highest level. Carlos Gomez, who came over to Minnesota in the same package as Guerra, is another example worth looking at. He eventually did fulfill his promise, becoming a borderline MVP caliber player in 2013 and 2014 with the Brewers, but not until a few years after he left the Twins. By the time Gomez reached his peak, he had accumulated more than 1500 MLB plate appearances and was 27. That's the same age Guerra is now. It's the same age David Ortiz was when he transformed into a superstar with the Red Sox. It's the age Oswaldo Arcia will turn in May of 2018. Plenty of top prospects catch on quickly and become instant big-league stars. Most do not. Development curves are varied and unpredictable. It really shouldn't be too surprising that Byron Buxton is overwhelmed by MLB pitching at age 22, nor that Jose Berrios got knocked around in his first taste at 21, nor that Eddie Rosario and Tyler Duffey have been stymied by the league's adjustments in their sophomore seasons. But just because these outcomes aren't particularly surprising doesn't mean they aren't problematic. The Twins are fully dependent on this young core to turn around their fledgling franchise. The fact that so many of them look so far from even approaching their potential is indeed perturbing. Click here to view the article

Rosario is never going to take a ton of walks. When he's going good, he is laying off the truly unhittable stuff, and putting good wood on tough pitches outside the zone. I do believe he can succeed with that approach because his wrists and hand/eye coordination are off the charts. But passing on pitches at his eyes or in the dirt will be the key. It's definitely encouraging to see him drawing a few free passes in Rochester.

No one has proclaimed to know that. We said it wasn't a valid excuse or justification if it was the case.

Right. I've seen people use the idea that he was "sulking" as an actual defense for his rotten performance in Triple-A last year. As if that's a quality you want from anyone on your baseball team.

Focusing on more recent events qualifies as playing "fast and loose"? Ok. Arcia IS a bench/part-time player. When you don't play defense, can't run, and can't hit LH pitchers, that's the way it is. He was not miscast in that role. Molitor played Arcia damn near exclusively against right-handed pitchers to try to get him going and it didn't happen. When I mentioned development issues I was referring to coaching and helping him make adjustments. His playing time has been fine.

I'm not spinning anything, You're simply incorrect in claiming that they were prioritizing Thomas over Arcia. Usually they were playing in the same outfield because Clete played CF. Arcia was sent down to the minors for a couple of weeks in late July because he was in a bad slump. That happens to 22-YO rookies sometimes. Also I don't really see how events that took place 3 years ago are really relevant to the decision to DFA him now. You can rip the Twins for how they developed him and I won't necessarily disagree, but as I said in the piece that's a separate discussion. As things currently stand, he is not a useful piece for this organization. When you're a RH-masher who is out of options and whiffing in half your PAs against RHPs after batting below .200 at AAA, the rope runs out. To blame Molitor's usage when he's getting 82% of his looks against righties is just silly.

I realize that bringing up Clete Thomas and Jason Kubel are easy ways to rile people up, but this is quite overblown. First, it all happened 2-3 years ago, under a different manager/coaching staff. Second, Arcia's lack of playing time was the result of his own injuries as much as anything. In 2014 he missed 5 weeks early on with a wrist injury. If not for that lengthy absence he'd have been over 500 PA, quite easily. In 2013 he was a 22-year-old rookie being eased in, and also dealt with wrist and knee problems. I'm sure the Twins would have liked to give him more playing time in the majors last year but unfortunately he never really gave them the option. Don't let the facts get in the way of the rancor though.

This thread is about Arcia. Did you miss that? Claiming a guy's OPS is bloated because he had so many extra-base hits is truly one of the most absurd angles I've ever seen taken around here. Congrats. Also, maybe you haven't seen Rosario's numbers in Rochester since his demotion. Take a look.

Yeah, if those triples would've just been doubles I'm sure his numbers would've been Arcia-like. Now Eddie's down in the minors padding his OPS with more unsustainable XBHs. What a bum. It's pretty amazing to me the extents people are willing to go to cover up for the fact that Arcia has been utter garbage, earning his way to the bottom of the depth chart. Are we really all that desperate to keep around another hacktastic power hitter with no defensive value? There ain't exactly a shortage.

Arcia had a .257 OBP in Triple-A last year while Rosario was finishing 6th in AL ROTY. Come on.

All of those things are true of Arcia, as well. Rosario at least can run and play defense, and has hit at some point in the last 2 years. Yet this concept is inexplicable to you?

I'm no Santana fan, but he serves a function on the roster. Arcia really didn't anymore. As I said, you can quibble with the timing but this move was imminent one way or another, with Sano's return and Rosario's recall closing in.

Patience is a commodity in baseball. Each team can only have so much. More patience is warranted in certain circumstances, particularly for rebuilding teams, but it is never infinite. With Oswaldo Arcia, patience was a luxury the Minnesota Twins could no longer afford.There was much frustration amongst fans over the decision to designate Arcia for assignment last week in order to make room for Danny Santana. Plenty of commenters voiced their displeasure in a 13-page thread here on Twins Daily. It's understandable. These are the same fans that have watched so many players leave Minnesota and excel elsewhere. The "David Ortiz Complex" is very real as the legendary DH wraps up a Hall of Fame career that took off as soon as the Twins unwisely gave up on him. There are too many more recent examples currently on other rosters in the league. Seeing the youth, the raw power, and the seemingly untapped potential, it's tempting to lump Arcia with some of the organization's most painful past mistakes. Don't do it. Let's lay out a few of the facts with regard to Arcia. He has been utterly terrible this year. In 114 plate appearances, he has batted .214/.289/.369 with 46 strikeouts. That's a 40 percent K-rate. Guys who are above 40 percent do not belong in the majors. The only MLB player with a higher strikeout rate this year (min. 100 PAs) is Byron Buxton. It's debatable whether Buxton belongs in the bigs right now but he gains leeway because he's so young and brings so much to the table defensively. Arcia, conversely, is approaching 1,000 plate appearances in the majors, and offers almost no defensive value. If he isn't mashing he isn't really an asset, and it's been quite a while since he has mashed. Last year, as we all recall, the outfielder turned a short rehab assignment into a permanent banishment at Triple-A because he never got going there. Save for a brief power splurge in July, Arcia basically slumped for three months straight, finishing with a .199 average in 79 games at Rochester. For someone who had hit 20 homers with a 752 OPS in the majors a year before, it was embarrassing. The Twins gave him a chance to make it right. Despite being tempted by Carlos Quentin's veteran bat in spring training, they stuck with Arcia, who was out of options. And while I've seen some people complaining about the team not putting Arcia in a position to succeed, that just isn't true. Actually, Paul Molitor has been quite good about using the righty-mashing slugger in the most advantageous spots. Eighty-two percent of Arcia's plate appearances have come against right-handed pitchers, and in those appearances he has batted .202 with a 42 percent K-rate. Yuck. Arcia is still young, but he continues to head in the wrong direction and the Twins have too many other players ahead of him that they are rightfully prioritizing. Miguel Sano, as things stand, remains an outfielder and has nowhere else to play. Max Kepler himself will be out of options next year and needs to get comfortable in the majors. Eddie Rosario has been absolutely tearing up Triple-A since his demotion – not struggling and sulking, mind you – and should be back up soon. Even Robbie Grossman is making a case as a long-term piece in some capacity. There's no argument to be made for Arcia starting ahead of any of these guys that doesn't fall back on his production from two years ago. Keeping him on the bench was doing neither him nor the Twins any good. He played himself out of the team's plans and it isn't anyone's fault but his own. This is not an indictment of the 25-year-old's long-term outlook; it wouldn't surprise me if he falls into the right situation and hits 30 homers in a couple of years. It's not unusual for players to reach their late 20s before they really figure things out in the majors. This game is tough. Yet, to argue that the Twins should have perpetually kept Arcia planted on their 25-man roster until that day arrived is silly. You can quibble with the timing and specifics of the DFA move, since Danny Santana isn't necessarily a player worth giving up anything to make room for and it's only June. But there were no signs of positive change, and keeping Arcia around was only going to get tougher with more deserving players like Sano and Rosario returning to the fold. All of the hand-wringing over the decision to designate Arcia overlooks the basic realities of the situation. You need to earn things on merit in Major League Baseball and he wasn't doing it. There is certainly a discussion to be had about how the organization may be culpable in his failure to adjust and grow as a player, especially given how many different times we've seen it happen, but that is a separate discussion. As of this post going live on Sunday night, there is still no word that Arcia has been claimed off waivers by another club. Maybe this will all be moot. But even if he does land elsewhere, and even if he does finally turn a corner eventually, it won't be because the Twins screwed up and gave up too early. It will be because he exhausted every last bit of patience they could show him. Click here to view the article

The Twins finally have some clarity on one of their many mysterious shoulder ailments, but it's not good news by any means. After heading to California this week to see a specialist, Glen Perkins was diagnosed with a torn labrum, and the Twins have officially shut him down for the season. The three-time All Star will undergo surgery within the next week or so.It's nice that Perkins will no longer face the uncertainty and frustration of continual setbacks, but he now has a very long and challenging road to recovery ahead of him. Procedures to repair labrum and rotator cuff issues are far murkier than elbow surgeries like Tommy John, which has now become almost routine with a reliably standard rehab window. Will Carroll, who has closely studied sports injuries and medicine for years, calls a labrum tear "baseball's toughest injury." Others have dubbed it "the career-ender." Dr. Neal ElAttrache, who examined Perkins in California this week and will perform the upcoming surgery, has likened fixing a damaged shoulder to trying to put a puzzle together without the box top for guidance. Many pitchers, particularly those in their 30s, are never able to return as effective players. That's not universally true, so there is still hope for Perkins. But the Twins need to come to terms with the somber reality that the lefty may be finished for all intents and purposes. At the very least, he'll be out through a portion of the 2017 season (his last under contract) with an extremely uncertain outlook thereafter. That means the search for a future closer is no longer a consideration that can be placed on the back-burner. Right now, the available options are unappealing. Kevin Jepsen is clearly not the guy. Hurlers within the system who possess the requisite stuff -- such as Alex Meyer, J.T. Chargois and Trevor May -- have failed to distinguish themselves. Nick Burdi might be the best hope internally but his own injury issues have limited him to three appearances this season (naturally, he just had a setback). In year that has been filled with unsettling developments for the Twins organization, this one has to rank near the top. As a hometown star who once bought a round of beers from the bullpen for a contingent of Twins Daily event-goers, Perkins is a natural fan favorite. Beyond that, his importance to the relief corps has been magnified by the unit's complete collapse this season. While most of us have seen it coming for a while, this development is nevertheless crushing. Alas, this merciless 2016 Minnesota Twins season drags on... Click here to view the article

What to do with Eddie Rosario? There's no easy answer to that question, but it's one that should be on the minds of Twins decision-makers as the 24-year-old outfielder torches Triple-A.Following his May 19th demotion, Rosario got off to a slow start at Rochester, with only two hits in 21 at-bats over his first five games. He was frustrated and swinging out of his shoes. Then, he flipped the switch. Since that opening cold stretch, he has collected multiple hits in 10 of 17 games, batting .400 with a 1.097 OPS in the process. Rosario had only one multi-hit game in his six weeks with the Twins. Clearly, he has turned a corner. He's still a free swinger, as ever, but he has gotten back to making hard contact, and has even taken a couple of walks in his past few games, a sadly noteworthy feat. The Twins were utterly exasperated with Rosario by the time they shipped him to the minors a month ago, and with good reason. But there is no denying the young outfielder's talent, which is flashing again right now as it did during his time with the Twins last year. We all know his aggressiveness can be a hindrance, but when Rosario is on his game – slashing tough pitches all over the field, laying off the truly unhittable stuff, playing dynamic defense – he is a player. While it may be tempting to pass off his hot streak in the International League as a pure reflection of the inferior pitching, he has shown before that he can hit in the majors, unlike fellow Triple-A bashers Byron Buxton and Max Kepler. Rosario's 2015 season in Minnesota can't be passed off as a total fluke. You don't lead the league in triples while playing 120 games by accident. And before you categorize him with fellow sophomore slumpers Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas, understand that Rosario was always in another prospect class. When an 18-year-old Miguel Sano blasted hit 20 home runs in his first year at Elizabethton, he didn't lead the league. Rosario did, with 21. This isn't to say that Rosario is not a very flawed player – he is. I do get the sense (from the responses to this tweet, for instance) that some fans are so down on him they have forgotten about his considerable strengths. The Twins surely have not, and must recognize that there's not much value in letting him pummel minor-league pitching. Their hands are tied, though. Buxton and Kepler have yet to find a sustained groove, but both deserve more time. Sano has been hitting off a tee and jogging, and should be back within a couple of weeks. Robbie Grossman is tough to take out of the lineup right now and Oswaldo Arcia needs at-bats unless the club is ready to give up on him. There's a pecking order for playing time in the Twins outfield and Rosario pushed himself pretty far down it over the first month and a half. He'll get another crack, but when? And at whose expense? Click here to view the article

An intriguing new pitcher acquisition, a perturbing injury trend, and a clear emphasis in draft strategy: We'll cover all three in today's Three-Bagger.* Last week, in discussing the benefits of badness, I mentioned that the waiver wire could be a key avenue for the Twins to infuse some talent during the season. Over the weekend, they utilized it, claiming right-handed reliever Neil Ramirez after he was waived by the Brewers. Ramirez is only 27 and has an impressive track record. Over the past two seasons with the Cubs, he posted a 1.87 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 68-to-23 K/BB ratio in 57 innings. The stuff matched the numbers as he racked up strikeouts with a mid-90s fastball and power slider. The velocity has been down a bit this year, and Ramirez has been a mess. The Brewers had acquired him off waivers from the Cubs and kept him for less than 10 days – only two appearances – before designating him for assignment, so clearly they didn't like what they saw. He's a project. But one with considerable upside that the Twins, desperate for arms, can't pass up. The word is that Ramirez has been battling some ongoing shoulder issues, so he should feel right at home with his new club. * Pitching a baseball is hard on the human body. For proof, look no further than all of the ravaged shoulders within Minnesota's pitching ranks. It is only fitting that the newest Twin has a bad wing, because that's been a persistent theme for the staff cornerstones. Phil Hughes' shoulder isn't the reason he went on the 60-day disabled list, but it's the reason he was pitching as the mop-up man in the ninth inning of a blowout loss when he took a line drive off the leg, breaking his femur. Battling through shoulder fatigue by his own admission, Hughes had been utterly ineffective. It wasn't entirely clear the Twins knew what to do with him. They sent him to the bullpen at the end of May, but his only appearances in June were a spot start in place of Kyle Gibson, and Thursday's mop-up relief outing in the final innings of a blowout loss. Now, the Twins have no choice but to do what they probably should have done all along: let that shoulder rest. No one seems able to diagnose what is specifically wrong with Hughes, other than vague dead arm attributions, but continually sending him out to take the mound was not doing any good. Since recording his lone victory this season, against the Brewers on April 18th, he has struck out only 17 of the 184 batters he has faced. That's 9 percent. You can't get by as a pitcher in the major leagues striking out less than 10 percent of opponents, much less as a fly ball guy. Hopefully the time off will do Hughes some good. So far, that plan hasn't worked for Glen Perkins, who remains tangled in an indefinite state of limbo due to his own ambiguously ailing shoulder. The lefty experienced yet another setback during his latest bullpen session, and is off to receive a third opinion due to lingering discomfort. Perkins hasn't pitched in a game since blowing his only save chance on April 10th, which was more than two months ago. Attempting to simply rest and rehab his aching shoulder has not resolved the issue, and that isn't surprising considering he dedicated his entire offseason to that approach before breaking down immediately. Meanwhile, Alex Meyer has been shut down for at least the month of June. We've been reassured that "nothing (was) found but inflammation" in his shoulder, but really there's nothing reassuring about that at this point. And if the shoulder strain that sidelined Gibson for seven weeks is now healed, it wasn't evident in his return on Saturday when he was rocked for five runs in 5 2/3 innings while inducing few swinging strikes or ground balls. The Twins are on pace to allow 894 runs, which is a higher total than any team has allowed since the 2010 Rangers gave up 967. And sure enough, bum shoulders are shouldering the blame for his porous pitching unit. * Turning the page to another deep-running organizational problem, here's some good news regarding Minnesota's catcher situation: John Ryan Murphy is hitting .370/.438/.630 this month at Rochester, with five extra-base hits (including his first home run) in eight games after totaling just two doubles in his first two months between the majors and Triple-A. At long last, it looks like he has shaken out of his mystifying slump. The better news, when it comes to the franchise's future at the catcher position, was the heavy emphasis given to it in last week's MLB Draft. The Twins smartly went the "Best Player Available" route with their first pick, selecting prep outfielder Alex Kiriloff and his enormous offensive ceiling, but they took a catcher with their second pick and then four more within the first 25 rounds. It's the most aggressively we have seen this team address the position since a 2013 draft class that produced the organization's two best current prospects behind the plate, Stuart Turner (a third-round pick) and Mitch Garver (a ninth-rounder). In fact, since Joe Mauer's MVP season in 2009, the Twins have spent only nine picks in the first 20 rounds of their six drafts on catchers, which... well, might help explain the situation they find themselves in today. But at least they're doing something about it. Ben Rortvedt, a high school backstop from Wisconsin that the Twins took with the 56th overall pick on Thursday, became the most highly drafted catcher for Minnesota since they got Mauer first overall in 2001, and he was considered by many to be the best prep player in the country at his position. Check out Jeremy's writeup on him. Along with Rortvedt, the Twins selected Mitchell Cranson, a slugging college catcher from UC Berkeley, in the ninth round. They grabbed Kidany Salva, a switch-hitting 17-year-old from a Texas high school, in the 17th and will try to lure him away from Sam Houston State. In the 20th round they landed Shamoy Christopher, an on-base machine from a community college in Tennessee. These guys are all wild cards to varying degrees, and some are quite unlikely to stick behind the plate, but the Twins are smart to load up on lotto tickets, with the hopes of finding a rare two-way treasure. Maybe they'll finally catch a break. Click here to view the article