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I'm generally not one to buy into the oft-exaggerated impact of pitching and hitting coaches, nor one to advocate for someone's dismissal after such a short time on his position. But the Twins took a gamble when they hired Allen two years ago, giving their rookie manager a pitching coach with no major-league experience, and it sure looks like they got it wrong. Each hurler is responsible for his own performance, of course, but the constant team-wide pitching struggles this year were striking. One after another, players marched to the mound with seemingly no plan. Effective adjustments were rarely seen. In particular, younger pitchers appeared totally unequipped for the task of retiring big-league hitters. Tyler Duffey posted the third-worst ERA ever for a Twin with 25-plus starts. Jose Berrios pitched past the fifth inning only three times in 14 tries. These guys far are more capable than their inflated numbers show, and the same can be said for too many members of Minnesota's staff. Kyle Gibson's WHIP would've ranked as second-worst in the majors if he qualified, after he was the best starter on the 2015 staff. Ricky Nolasco went to the Angels at the deadline and posted a 3.21 ERA over 11 starts thereafter, directly crediting his new pitching coach for his improvement. Alex Meyer, similarly, has looked vastly better since switching clubs. Allen came in with a reputation for expertise with teaching the changeup. No Twins pitcher has noticeably improved that pitch. He was purported to have a bulldog mentality, and spoke about the importance of throwing inside and backing hitters off the plate. His pitchers evidently didn't internalize such a mentality, because they were continually out over the plate, and allowed the second-most home runs in franchise history. I don't really hold Allen's suspension, stemming from a DWI charge in late May, against him. People make mistakes and he handled it the right way. It doesn't help his case that he was gone for six weeks in the middle of the season, but what's more problematic is that there was no evidence of positive influence when he was on the job. The tasks looming ahead of the Twins, when it comes to turning around this historically bad pitching unit, are immense. Helping Berrios find the strike zone is the highest priority. Once top prospect Stephen Gonsalves graduates he may face the same challenge. Getting Duffey and Gibson back on track is vital. When Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins return from shoulder surgery rehab, they will need significant guidance because they may be forced to reinvent themselves in order to succeed. And the bullpen is filled with projects. It's tough to believe that Allen is the one to take on these critical imperatives. Whatever his methods, they aren't resonating and too many pitchers are underperforming. One of the primary objectives for Derek Falvey in his first offseason at the helm will be to identify a replacement pitching coach. I believe he would be wise to seek someone with more experience, and a track record of helping pitchers figure it out in the big leagues. A complete roster overhaul is not realistic so the Twins need to find someone who can get more out of the existing assets. It goes without saying that the results this year were beyond unacceptable.
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We don't know exactly when the official announcement will come, but at this point we do know that Derek Falvey is going to be appointed as the new President of Baseball Operations for the Minnesota Twins. What information can we gather about the 33-year-old Cleveland Indians assistant general manager?Falvey is a bit enigmatic. Information about him online is scarce, owing to his lack of a high profile in the game. Up until the news of his selection emerged on Monday, his name barely popped up on a Google search. He doesn't even have a Wikipedia page. I mean, come on, even Aaron Gleeman has a Wikipedia page! However, this certainly isn't a random, out-of-nowhere hire for the Twins. There are plenty of signs that Falvey is a highly respected up-and-comer. Cleveland manager Terry Francona has called him a "rising star," praising his acumen and people skills while noting that he's a central figure in their operations. Jeff Passan, a national baseball columnist for Yahoo! Sports, noted a year ago that Falvey was "in the eyes of many, a future general manager." With the help of search firm Korn Ferry, Jim Pohlad and Dave St. Peter have settled upon an extremely intriguing candidate for this crucially important role. We'll learn much more about Falvey's philosophies and perspectives once he's formally introduced, and becomes accessible to the media, but for now here are a few things we can conclude about the new top dog for the Twins. He comes from an excellent front office culture. The Cleveland front office has been a hotbed for baseball executives. Former longtime general manager Mark Shapiro was hired on as Blue Jays team president last year. He brought along Ross Atkins, who worked under him for 15 years with the Indians, to be his GM. David Stearns, who once shared director of baseball operations duties with Falvey in Cleveland, went on to become assistant GM of the Astros and is now the youngest general manager in the game with Milwaukee. It's not hard to see why teams are repeatedly tapping into Cleveland's executive pipeline when filling their own vacancies. This is a reputable franchise with an excellent track record. We all know about the reign of dominance in the late-90s, when they won the division five straight times and went to the World Series twice. But even since then, the Indians have consistently fielded competitive squads. In 17 years since the turn of the century, Cleveland has won 80-plus games 11 times and reached the postseason four times, including 2007 when they came within a game of another World Series appearance. Over the last decade, they have boasted three different Cy Young winners (CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Corey Kluber). They have done all this while regularly ranking in the bottom third of the league in payroll. The organization's recent ascent has been particularly impressive. After bottoming out with four consecutive sub-.500 finishes from 2009 through 2012, they have bounced back strong. They're wrapping up their fourth straight winning season and are heading to the playoffs with an elite (albeit injury-riddled) pitching staff, along with a premier young star in Francisco Lindor, a Rookie of the Year front-runner in Tyler Naquin and two 34-homer sluggers. They've accomplished all of this with virtually no contribution from hobbled Michael Brantley, who's arguably their best position player. Falvey of course can't be credited with all this success, but he has held prominent administrative player development roles during their rebuilding process. He's an ambitious fast riser. Falvey joined the Indians organization as an intern back in 2007, and less than 10 years later he has risen to a chief executive position. That's insane. Within four years of joining the organization, he was already assistant director of baseball operations, and it didn't take him long to drop the "assistant" tag. After last season, he became assistant general manager, and less than 365 days later he takes a massive leap to the top position in a front office. It seems like Falvey was destined to reach this point eventually. The Twins savvily stepped in and grabbed him before anyone else could. The question is whether he's truly ready for everything his new title entails. He's analytically inclined. It probably goes without saying given his age and the era he came up in. But there are other indications that Falvey heavily factors analytics and advanced metrics. For instance, three years ago he was on a player development panel moderated by Rob Neyer at a SABR event. You can watch video of it below (helpfully dug up by TD user nytwinsfan): The fact that Falvey was participating in this panel to begin with is telling, since SABR is a well known beacon of statistical analysis. In fact, this particular event is called the "SABR Analytics Conference." Its objective is to "bring together the top minds in the baseball analytics community to discuss, debate and share insightful ways to analyze and examine the great game of baseball." During the Q&A session, Falvey comes off as very sharp and knowledgeable while fielding questions about defensive metrics, the scouting/analytics balance, developing power hitters, and many other subjects. He knows pitching. Falvey was a pitcher for Trinity College before graduating with an economics degree in 2005. He had a hand in many different aspects of Cleveland's operations, but arms were known to be his specialty. He is studious of mechanics and delivery. He oversaw an Indians pitching program that utilized many innovative methods such as weighted baseballs and high-tech pitching sleeves that transmit data via Bluetooth. For a Twins team in desperate need of pitching improvement, this may be the most alluring component of Falvey's résumé. He represents, basically, the most drastic change possible. Terry Ryan was the second oldest GM in the game. He was a minor-league pitcher in the mid-70s who went on to gain decades of experience as a scout and exec. While he made some efforts to adapt to new trends in the game (often too late), his mindset was forever old-school. Falvey now becomes baseball's second-youngest baseball ops chief. He never played in affiliated pro ball. He's a month older than Joe Mauer. Whatever attachment Ryan had to traditional conventions is not even a consideration in this case. Falvey is the definition of new-school. In that respect, he's exactly what many fans wanted. I'll admit that I had my doubts about Pohlad and St. Peter executing this search, especially with some of their early comments about the approach. But from many different perspectives, Falvey looks like a creative, thoughtful and above all fitting choice for the task at hand. Click here to view the article
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Falvey is a bit enigmatic. Information about him online is scarce, owing to his lack of a high profile in the game. Up until the news of his selection emerged on Monday, his name barely popped up on a Google search. He doesn't even have a Wikipedia page. I mean, come on, even Aaron Gleeman has a Wikipedia page! However, this certainly isn't a random, out-of-nowhere hire for the Twins. There are plenty of signs that Falvey is a highly respected up-and-comer. Cleveland manager Terry Francona has called him a "rising star," praising his acumen and people skills while noting that he's a central figure in their operations. Jeff Passan, a national baseball columnist for Yahoo! Sports, noted a year ago that Falvey was "in the eyes of many, a future general manager." With the help of search firm Korn Ferry, Jim Pohlad and Dave St. Peter have settled upon an extremely intriguing candidate for this crucially important role. We'll learn much more about Falvey's philosophies and perspectives once he's formally introduced, and becomes accessible to the media, but for now here are a few things we can conclude about the new top dog for the Twins. He comes from an excellent front office culture. The Cleveland front office has been a hotbed for baseball executives. Former longtime general manager Mark Shapiro was hired on as Blue Jays team president last year. He brought along Ross Atkins, who worked under him for 15 years with the Indians, to be his GM. David Stearns, who once shared director of baseball operations duties with Falvey in Cleveland, went on to become assistant GM of the Astros and is now the youngest general manager in the game with Milwaukee. It's not hard to see why teams are repeatedly tapping into Cleveland's executive pipeline when filling their own vacancies. This is a reputable franchise with an excellent track record. We all know about the reign of dominance in the late-90s, when they won the division five straight times and went to the World Series twice. But even since then, the Indians have consistently fielded competitive squads. In 17 years since the turn of the century, Cleveland has won 80-plus games 11 times and reached the postseason four times, including 2007 when they came within a game of another World Series appearance. Over the last decade, they have boasted three different Cy Young winners (CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Corey Kluber). They have done all this while regularly ranking in the bottom third of the league in payroll. The organization's recent ascent has been particularly impressive. After bottoming out with four consecutive sub-.500 finishes from 2009 through 2012, they have bounced back strong. They're wrapping up their fourth straight winning season and are heading to the playoffs with an elite (albeit injury-riddled) pitching staff, along with a premier young star in Francisco Lindor, a Rookie of the Year front-runner in Tyler Naquin and two 34-homer sluggers. They've accomplished all of this with virtually no contribution from hobbled Michael Brantley, who's arguably their best position player. Falvey of course can't be credited with all this success, but he has held prominent administrative player development roles during their rebuilding process. He's an ambitious fast riser. Falvey joined the Indians organization as an intern back in 2007, and less than 10 years later he has risen to a chief executive position. That's insane. Within four years of joining the organization, he was already assistant director of baseball operations, and it didn't take him long to drop the "assistant" tag. After last season, he became assistant general manager, and less than 365 days later he takes a massive leap to the top position in a front office. It seems like Falvey was destined to reach this point eventually. The Twins savvily stepped in and grabbed him before anyone else could. The question is whether he's truly ready for everything his new title entails. He's analytically inclined. It probably goes without saying given his age and the era he came up in. But there are other indications that Falvey heavily factors analytics and advanced metrics. For instance, three years ago he was on a player development panel moderated by Rob Neyer at a SABR event. You can watch video of it below (helpfully dug up by TD user nytwinsfan): The fact that Falvey was participating in this panel to begin with is telling, since SABR is a well known beacon of statistical analysis. In fact, this particular event is called the "SABR Analytics Conference." Its objective is to "bring together the top minds in the baseball analytics community to discuss, debate and share insightful ways to analyze and examine the great game of baseball." During the Q&A session, Falvey comes off as very sharp and knowledgeable while fielding questions about defensive metrics, the scouting/analytics balance, developing power hitters, and many other subjects. He knows pitching. Falvey was a pitcher for Trinity College before graduating with an economics degree in 2005. He had a hand in many different aspects of Cleveland's operations, but arms were known to be his specialty. He is studious of mechanics and delivery. He oversaw an Indians pitching program that utilized many innovative methods such as weighted baseballs and high-tech pitching sleeves that transmit data via Bluetooth. For a Twins team in desperate need of pitching improvement, this may be the most alluring component of Falvey's résumé. He represents, basically, the most drastic change possible. Terry Ryan was the second oldest GM in the game. He was a minor-league pitcher in the mid-70s who went on to gain decades of experience as a scout and exec. While he made some efforts to adapt to new trends in the game (often too late), his mindset was forever old-school. Falvey now becomes baseball's second-youngest baseball ops chief. He never played in affiliated pro ball. He's a month older than Joe Mauer. Whatever attachment Ryan had to traditional conventions is not even a consideration in this case. Falvey is the definition of new-school. In that respect, he's exactly what many fans wanted. I'll admit that I had my doubts about Pohlad and St. Peter executing this search, especially with some of their early comments about the approach. But from many different perspectives, Falvey looks like a creative, thoughtful and above all fitting choice for the task at hand.
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Here's the crazy thing to me. With this organization, and the way things have operated for the past few decades, it is hard to even conceptualize the idea of a 33-year-old outsider coming in with complete control and authority over the entire baseball operations department. That is such a far cry from the status quo that it really says something about the impression Falvey made upon them. I find it exciting. But still a bit tough to wrap my head around.
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Soon after dismissing longtime general manager Terry Ryan, the Minnesota Twins indicated that they'd be transitioning to a new front office structure, wherein the GM reports to a president of baseball operations. Several sources strongly indicate that their search for a new front office leader will soon lead to the hiring of Cleveland Indians assistant GM Derek Falvey.Falvey is known to be one of the finalists for the position. TD contributor Jeremy Nygaard tweeted on Sunday that he hears Falvey is the likely choice. Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports tweeted on Monday that Falvey is the "distinct favorite." Twins Daily has heard the same from sources within both the Twins and Indians organizations. With the end of the season less than a week away, an official announcement could come soon. UPDATE: Keith Law of ESPN.com has provided definitive confirmation: If Falvey is the guy, what would his hiring mean? Given the visionary nature of the position, his age and experience are noteworthy. He's only 33, and his highest rank has been assistant GM, which is current his job title with Cleveland. Before his promotion to that role a year ago, he was the organization's director of baseball operations for four seasons. Sound familiar? During his relatively short time in a major-league front office, Falvey has built a strong reputation. Passan noted in the past that the potential new Twins boss is "extremely well-regarded in (the) industry." Last summer, Passan wrote that Falvey "oversees the Indians’ whole pitching program." That program has produced a division winner this year, powered by a pitching staff ranked second in the American League in ERA. Given the Twins' desperate need to improve in run prevention, Falvey's area of expertise makes him a very logical candidate. While he would now oversee Minnesota's baseball operations, presumably there will be a collaborative decision-making approach within the front office. The Twins might borrow the same blueprint that the Indians put into place last year. At that point, they moved former general manager Chris Antonetti up to President of Baseball Ops while naming Mike Chernoff GM and Falvey his assistant. I wouldn't be surprised to see Minnesota employ a similar three-legged structure, and I also wouldn't be surprised if Rob Antony stayed on in one of those lesser roles so as to maintain some sense of continuity. If Falvey is pegged for the top spot, the next steps will be identifying the hierarchy beneath him. We should receive more details to that end in the coming days and weeks. Stay tuned to Twins Daily for updates. What would you think of this hire? Click here to view the article
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Falvey is known to be one of the finalists for the position. TD contributor Jeremy Nygaard tweeted on Sunday that he hears Falvey is the likely choice. Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports tweeted on Monday that Falvey is the "distinct favorite." Twins Daily has heard the same from sources within both the Twins and Indians organizations. With the end of the season less than a week away, an official announcement could come soon. UPDATE: Keith Law of ESPN.com has provided definitive confirmation: https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/780429674497339393 If Falvey is the guy, what would his hiring mean? Given the visionary nature of the position, his age and experience are noteworthy. He's only 33, and his highest rank has been assistant GM, which is current his job title with Cleveland. Before his promotion to that role a year ago, he was the organization's director of baseball operations for four seasons. Sound familiar? During his relatively short time in a major-league front office, Falvey has built a strong reputation. Passan noted in the past that the potential new Twins boss is "extremely well-regarded in (the) industry." Last summer, Passan wrote that Falvey "oversees the Indians’ whole pitching program." That program has produced a division winner this year, powered by a pitching staff ranked second in the American League in ERA. Given the Twins' desperate need to improve in run prevention, Falvey's area of expertise makes him a very logical candidate. While he would now oversee Minnesota's baseball operations, presumably there will be a collaborative decision-making approach within the front office. The Twins might borrow the same blueprint that the Indians put into place last year. At that point, they moved former general manager Chris Antonetti up to President of Baseball Ops while naming Mike Chernoff GM and Falvey his assistant. I wouldn't be surprised to see Minnesota employ a similar three-legged structure, and I also wouldn't be surprised if Rob Antony stayed on in one of those lesser roles so as to maintain some sense of continuity. If Falvey is pegged for the top spot, the next steps will be identifying the hierarchy beneath him. We should receive more details to that end in the coming days and weeks. Stay tuned to Twins Daily for updates. What would you think of this hire?
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On Sunday, the Twins lost their 100th game. It's a milestone that had previously been reached six times in the franchise's 115-year history, and only once since the team came to Minnesota. With a week to go, this season has already set a new standard for Minnesota baseball futility in my lifetime. So how come I'm not feeling entirely discouraged?In charting the ascent of a prospect core entrusted with restoring the organization's winning culture, we knew there would be growing pains. Unfortunately, they've been a little more severe than expected. But rather than focusing on the pain, let's focus on the growth. Miguel Sano has endured a tough year, from a variety of perspectives. There were the position switches, the adjustments from opposing pitchers, the injuries afflicting his hamstring, elbow and back. Some of his troubles were self-inflicted, as Sano came under fire for his work ethic and his occasional antics on the field. But at the end of the day, through all of that, what you have in Sano is a 23-year-old who has posted a .797 OPS and hit 24 homers in his first full season as a big-leaguer. He'll head into the offseason knowing what he needs to do to take his game to the next level. And, at least according to him, he'll have greater resolve to do so. Similarly, it's easy to find positivity within the tumult of Byron Buxton's season. His makeup and mental fortitude were touted almost as much as his athleticism while prospect publications lavished praise during his rise through the minors. Both were on display while he stumbled repeatedly in his first several tries against major-league pitching. While striking out at a catastrophic rate and failing to find any kind of traction for much of the season, Buxton was undoubtedly frustrated but it never really showed. When demoted to the minors, twice, he didn't let his dejection affect his play or focus. Now, during his fifth major-league stint here in September, the light bulb has finally flipped on. Since his latest call-up Buxton is batting .288 and slugging .625. He shows renewed confidence at the plate. His defense, as ever, is game-changing in center field. He's finally playing like he belongs. If he sticks, his impact over a full season – both in terms of run scoring and prevention – can hardly be overstated. Hitters throughout the lineup are inspiring optimism. Max Kepler hit his 17th home run on Sunday, a tremendous rookie showing for a developing young hitter whose highest total in the minors was 10. Jorge Polanco is a middle infielder that can credibly be written in as the No. 3 hitter, and has been on numerous occasions. Eddie Rosario posted an .812 OPS after returning from his short trip to Rochester. Brian Dozier has emerged as one of the game's biggest stars. On the pitching side, obviously, things aren't so rosy. But I take solace in this fact: it can't get worse. It really can't. This team will come close to matching – and might still surpass – the Twins record for runs allowed set in 1996. That record was set with an atrocious pitching staff, at the height of the steroid era and its offensive inflation. Jose Berrios has taken a beating, no doubt. We haven't seen too many pitchers struggle this much in their introductions to the majors, let alone talents of his caliber. But he's also 22, and fueled by relentless motivation to improve. At this point, I'm more eager to see how he comes back next year than worried he'll never find the strike zone. The stuff is clearly there. The same can be said for J.T. Chargois, who has settled into a nice groove after initially getting roughed up. Over his last 10 appearances, the fireballer has allowed one run and three hits. It is evident that he's a cut above the rest of the erratic hard-throwers that have come through the Twins bullpen in recent years. While the staff has delivered hideous results this year, there is a lot more ability than the numbers would suggest. And the Twins have the luxury of carrying some interesting assets like Tyler Duffey and Trevor May, who appear ill-suited for their current roles but boast undeniable upside. Getting the most out of such assets has been a crippling failure for the club this season, but new leadership will be in place moving forward. Based on the rumblings, it sounds like we might have a name announced before the season ends next Sunday. Then, the focus will turn toward the future. It's a future that will include more mature and experienced versions of Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Berrios, Chargois and more. It's a future that will be overseen by a rearranged front office, which will have at its disposal a premier trade chip in Dozier, a top pitching prospect in Stephen Gonsalves, and the No. 1 pick in next June's draft. This 2016 season has been a hell of a speed bump, but it doesn't feel like much more than that. Plenty of signs still point to a quality product in the not-so-distant future. The bad taste in our mouths after this rotten campaign will only make the final destination that much sweeter. Click here to view the article
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In charting the ascent of a prospect core entrusted with restoring the organization's winning culture, we knew there would be growing pains. Unfortunately, they've been a little more severe than expected. But rather than focusing on the pain, let's focus on the growth. Miguel Sano has endured a tough year, from a variety of perspectives. There were the position switches, the adjustments from opposing pitchers, the injuries afflicting his hamstring, elbow and back. Some of his troubles were self-inflicted, as Sano came under fire for his work ethic and his occasional antics on the field. But at the end of the day, through all of that, what you have in Sano is a 23-year-old who has posted a .797 OPS and hit 24 homers in his first full season as a big-leaguer. He'll head into the offseason knowing what he needs to do to take his game to the next level. And, at least according to him, he'll have greater resolve to do so. Similarly, it's easy to find positivity within the tumult of Byron Buxton's season. His makeup and mental fortitude were touted almost as much as his athleticism while prospect publications lavished praise during his rise through the minors. Both were on display while he stumbled repeatedly in his first several tries against major-league pitching. While striking out at a catastrophic rate and failing to find any kind of traction for much of the season, Buxton was undoubtedly frustrated but it never really showed. When demoted to the minors, twice, he didn't let his dejection affect his play or focus. Now, during his fifth major-league stint here in September, the light bulb has finally flipped on. Since his latest call-up Buxton is batting .288 and slugging .625. He shows renewed confidence at the plate. His defense, as ever, is game-changing in center field. He's finally playing like he belongs. If he sticks, his impact over a full season – both in terms of run scoring and prevention – can hardly be overstated. Hitters throughout the lineup are inspiring optimism. Max Kepler hit his 17th home run on Sunday, a tremendous rookie showing for a developing young hitter whose highest total in the minors was 10. Jorge Polanco is a middle infielder that can credibly be written in as the No. 3 hitter, and has been on numerous occasions. Eddie Rosario posted an .812 OPS after returning from his short trip to Rochester. Brian Dozier has emerged as one of the game's biggest stars. On the pitching side, obviously, things aren't so rosy. But I take solace in this fact: it can't get worse. It really can't. This team will come close to matching – and might still surpass – the Twins record for runs allowed set in 1996. That record was set with an atrocious pitching staff, at the height of the steroid era and its offensive inflation. Jose Berrios has taken a beating, no doubt. We haven't seen too many pitchers struggle this much in their introductions to the majors, let alone talents of his caliber. But he's also 22, and fueled by relentless motivation to improve. At this point, I'm more eager to see how he comes back next year than worried he'll never find the strike zone. The stuff is clearly there. The same can be said for J.T. Chargois, who has settled into a nice groove after initially getting roughed up. Over his last 10 appearances, the fireballer has allowed one run and three hits. It is evident that he's a cut above the rest of the erratic hard-throwers that have come through the Twins bullpen in recent years. While the staff has delivered hideous results this year, there is a lot more ability than the numbers would suggest. And the Twins have the luxury of carrying some interesting assets like Tyler Duffey and Trevor May, who appear ill-suited for their current roles but boast undeniable upside. Getting the most out of such assets has been a crippling failure for the club this season, but new leadership will be in place moving forward. Based on the rumblings, it sounds like we might have a name announced before the season ends next Sunday. Then, the focus will turn toward the future. It's a future that will include more mature and experienced versions of Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Berrios, Chargois and more. It's a future that will be overseen by a rearranged front office, which will have at its disposal a premier trade chip in Dozier, a top pitching prospect in Stephen Gonsalves, and the No. 1 pick in next June's draft. This 2016 season has been a hell of a speed bump, but it doesn't feel like much more than that. Plenty of signs still point to a quality product in the not-so-distant future. The bad taste in our mouths after this rotten campaign will only make the final destination that much sweeter.
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Article: What To Do With Michael Tonkin
Nick Nelson replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Being young, cheap and having been effective in brief cameos with the Twins the prior three seasons, it was an easy choice. You would think so. But based on what I heard when I was down there in March, the team was very close to letting him go. If they had kept Duffey in the rotation and sent Nolasco to the bullpen, as they were apparently planning until the last week, Tonkin would've been gone. I think you hit the nail on the head with the workload numbers. Tonkin has been a dominant closer in the minors and now he's been arbitrarily thrown into a long relief role, which is completely foreign to him. The change in usage takes a toll in individual appearances (as your stats illustrate) and even more so over time. He's clearly got nothing left at this point in the season and it's baffling that they even continue to use him. They'll let him go, and he'll join another team that uses him in the right way and turns him into a nice setup man. Painfully predictable. -
Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
That's a perfectly reasonable standpoint. But unfortunately what's done is done, and diving back into a ground-up rebuild at this point is illogical and unrealistic.- 254 replies
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Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Because you are arguing from the incredibly stubborn position that the Twins will be a 70-win team next year, there's really no point in continuing down this path with you. You and others may think it's the right approach to simply give up on 2017 before it starts but many others don't. And I can guarantee you with 100 percent confidence that the Twins will not be operating with that mindset. So these arguments are really, really pointless. I'm done wasting my time with it.- 254 replies
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Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Are you under the impression that a good exec has a 100% hit rate on prospect acquisitions, especially when trading a good-not-great asset like Ervin? I think you're going to be sorely disappointed by anyone they wind up with...- 254 replies
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Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I am honestly baffled that you're confused by this. Santana is the only starter on the team with an ERA+ above 83. Dozier is one good hitter among many in the lineup.- 254 replies
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Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
That's fine. I also didn't mention Gonsalves, Mejia, Hughes, May or any FA acquisitions/trade returns for Dozier etc. To act like they're doomed to anything approximating the same historically bad outcome as this year is nothing but blind pessimism. It boggles my mind that people are treating a statement like "people could pitch to their career norms" as some kind of fantasy scenario.- 254 replies
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Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If Santana, Gibson and Santiago perform up to their career norms, while Berrios pitches remotely well, it's not that difficult to envision this being a decent, albeit below average rotation. Especially if you shore up the defense and add a couple more upside arms. Not sure why that concept is so absurd to a few folks around here. No one is advocating going all-in on a World Series in 2017. But saying, "screw it we have no chance let's just get more prospects" is flat-out silly to me. All you're doing is giving up on the present and putting more faulty hope into the distant future on the basis of young pitching prospects, which are basically the most volatile asset in the game. I'm not OK with the idea of wasting years of these good young hitters' careers while not bothering to make an effort to compete. What happens if the prospects you get back for Santana and Dozier fail to pan? Start over? Another rebuild? Submit yourself to a 15-year swoon? No thanks.- 254 replies
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Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
He literally said there is "no conceivable path" to a rotation capable of helping this team contend for a playoff spot. In what way was my response a straw man, Mike?- 254 replies
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Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
People were saying the same thing after the 2014 season, then they shaved off 80 runs and came within a few games of the playoffs. But yeah, totally impossible. Look, this is not a good pitching staff. But it's been flukishly bad. If the Twins had allowed the same number of runs as the 2nd-worst run prevention team (Texas) they would be a .500 team by Pythag W/L.- 254 replies
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Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Good thing this year's performances completely dictate and predict exactly what will happen next year! It's nice to have the assurance that the Santiago we've seen the last few weeks is the real version and not the guy from the last 5 years. And of course there's no chance a 22-year-old rookie is going to improve in any regard. Gibson had a bad year so he might as well just quit and try something else.- 254 replies
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Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I've seen some people suggest that the Twins should drop Santiago, but then go find a one-year plug in free agency. Anyone who believes they're going to find a better starter on a more favorable deal in FA is kidding themselves.- 254 replies
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Article: Penciling A 2017 Starting Rotation
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Good comments so far. I'll just say a couple of things: 1) Not a fan of the "let them compete in spring training approach." The Twins have made bad roster decisions too many times in the past by making judgments on the basis of specious data gathered over a month of exhibition games. They need a firm plan going into camp, which was the idea behind this thought exercise. 2) Giving up on players like Gibson after one bad year is how teams make huge mistakes that haunt them down the line. It's short-sighted and reactionary. He's a talented pitcher who had a bad season.- 254 replies
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The first and most important objective for any incoming baseball ops chief, in terms of roster construction, will be assembling a rotation for next season that gives the Twins a chance to compete. This year's unit failed miserably in that regard. When the Twins inevitably drop their 100th game, they'll become the highest-scoring team with triple-digit losses of the last 10 years at least.Obviously, the new top decision-maker will want to pursue every avenue for improving Minnesota's historically bad starting corps. But that won't involve rebuilding from the ground up. There are usable assets on hand and the Twins will certainly give some of them an opportunity to rebound. The question is which ones should be penciled in as members of the 2017 rotation, and which should be heading into spring training on the outside looking in, needing to earn their way back. This determination will have a major impact on how the front office approaches the offseason. I would say that the following players will -- and in my estimation, probably should -- be viewed as locks: Ervin Santana: I presume no one's going to argue with this one. Santana is on his way to posting the lowest ERA for a Twins starter since that other Santana guy left. Some might suggest he should be traded over the winter, and that's a discussion for another time, but if he's here, Erv is the Opening Day starter (again) in 2017. Kyle Gibson: I suspect that some will disagree with this. Undeniably, Gibson has had an awful season. But he's just not a guy you give up on. He's 29, he was their best starter a year ago, and he'll be fairly inexpensive in his first year of arbitration. The ability is there but for whatever reason Gibson has been unable to straighten himself out this season. He looks like someone who would benefit greatly from a new coaching voice. Jose Berrios: On the one hand, he has done nothing to earn a guaranteed spot with his rocky performance as a rookie. But on the other hand, it makes no sense to send Berrios back to the minors. He has nothing left to accomplish there. He needs to sink or swim in the rotation from Day One next year. He'll have the next few months to focus on everything he needs to improve, and something tells me there will be no shortage of hard work put forth on that front. Hector Santiago: Since his dreadful opening stretch with the new club, Santiago has gone back to his usual routine, delivering solid if unspectacular starts each fifth day. He'll be 29 and on a one-year deal through arbitration, so there isn't much risk. If he's healthy and decent, he eats innings and fills a spot at the back of the rotation. If he's not good, the Twins can cut him loose and try another option. I only refer to him as a lock because that is what he'll be once the team commits to paying him close to $10 million for next year. With those four in place, the Twins will have one wide-open spot to fill. They could look to address it externally, but there will be several options on hand. Let's run through some of those candidates: Phil Hughes: Coming off thoracic outlet surgery, I severely doubt that he'll be healthy and strong enough to be an MLB starter next April. Let's not forget that he was throwing in the 80s and fatiguing in the fifth inning by the time he finally submitted to his shoulder issues. Although he'll be nine months removed from surgery by the start of next season, I'd rather see him ramp up and get sharp in the minors or extended spring before being inserted back into the big-league rotation. Trevor May: The Twins have declared that they intend to return May to a starting role, which is good news. But he hasn't started a game since last August. After altering his routine and approach to that of a reliever, he'll now need to switch back. There is no assurance he'll be able to complete that process in camp, and the Twins would be hard-pressed to rely upon it. He will have one option remaining if they want to start him in Triple-A as a go-to reinforcement. Tyler Duffey: My belief is that Duffey needs to swap roles with May and head to the bullpen. He was a dominant collegiate closer before the Twins drafted him, and his two-pitch combo is tailor-made for shorter stints. Even if the team doesn't go that route, I have to imagine that his brutal results this year have eliminated him from any kind of consideration to open 2017 in the rotation, regardless of how he looks in March. Adalberto Mejia: Acquired from San Francisco at the deadline, he had a nice year in Triple-A and briefly debuted for the Twins last month. Mejia is bordering on big-league ready but I suspect that he'll begin at Rochester again next year. It's tough to slot a guy with so little experience into a rotation that desperately needs to improve, especially with Berrios already in that mix. There are a few other prospects that could factor into this conversation, as well as Tommy Milone if he's kept around (doubtful). But these are the names I would have listed as legitimate options. Obviously, it will be helpful to add more depth and upside to this group, and that will be a priority during the coming offseason. What are your thoughts? Who should be penciled in? If you're the GM, how many starters are you set on acquiring this winter? Click here to view the article
- 254 replies
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Obviously, the new top decision-maker will want to pursue every avenue for improving Minnesota's historically bad starting corps. But that won't involve rebuilding from the ground up. There are usable assets on hand and the Twins will certainly give some of them an opportunity to rebound. The question is which ones should be penciled in as members of the 2017 rotation, and which should be heading into spring training on the outside looking in, needing to earn their way back. This determination will have a major impact on how the front office approaches the offseason. I would say that the following players will -- and in my estimation, probably should -- be viewed as locks: Ervin Santana: I presume no one's going to argue with this one. Santana is on his way to posting the lowest ERA for a Twins starter since that other Santana guy left. Some might suggest he should be traded over the winter, and that's a discussion for another time, but if he's here, Erv is the Opening Day starter (again) in 2017. Kyle Gibson: I suspect that some will disagree with this. Undeniably, Gibson has had an awful season. But he's just not a guy you give up on. He's 29, he was their best starter a year ago, and he'll be fairly inexpensive in his first year of arbitration. The ability is there but for whatever reason Gibson has been unable to straighten himself out this season. He looks like someone who would benefit greatly from a new coaching voice. Jose Berrios: On the one hand, he has done nothing to earn a guaranteed spot with his rocky performance as a rookie. But on the other hand, it makes no sense to send Berrios back to the minors. He has nothing left to accomplish there. He needs to sink or swim in the rotation from Day One next year. He'll have the next few months to focus on everything he needs to improve, and something tells me there will be no shortage of hard work put forth on that front. Hector Santiago: Since his dreadful opening stretch with the new club, Santiago has gone back to his usual routine, delivering solid if unspectacular starts each fifth day. He'll be 29 and on a one-year deal through arbitration, so there isn't much risk. If he's healthy and decent, he eats innings and fills a spot at the back of the rotation. If he's not good, the Twins can cut him loose and try another option. I only refer to him as a lock because that is what he'll be once the team commits to paying him close to $10 million for next year. With those four in place, the Twins will have one wide-open spot to fill. They could look to address it externally, but there will be several options on hand. Let's run through some of those candidates: Phil Hughes: Coming off thoracic outlet surgery, I severely doubt that he'll be healthy and strong enough to be an MLB starter next April. Let's not forget that he was throwing in the 80s and fatiguing in the fifth inning by the time he finally submitted to his shoulder issues. Although he'll be nine months removed from surgery by the start of next season, I'd rather see him ramp up and get sharp in the minors or extended spring before being inserted back into the big-league rotation. Trevor May: The Twins have declared that they intend to return May to a starting role, which is good news. But he hasn't started a game since last August. After altering his routine and approach to that of a reliever, he'll now need to switch back. There is no assurance he'll be able to complete that process in camp, and the Twins would be hard-pressed to rely upon it. He will have one option remaining if they want to start him in Triple-A as a go-to reinforcement. Tyler Duffey: My belief is that Duffey needs to swap roles with May and head to the bullpen. He was a dominant collegiate closer before the Twins drafted him, and his two-pitch combo is tailor-made for shorter stints. Even if the team doesn't go that route, I have to imagine that his brutal results this year have eliminated him from any kind of consideration to open 2017 in the rotation, regardless of how he looks in March. Adalberto Mejia: Acquired from San Francisco at the deadline, he had a nice year in Triple-A and briefly debuted for the Twins last month. Mejia is bordering on big-league ready but I suspect that he'll begin at Rochester again next year. It's tough to slot a guy with so little experience into a rotation that desperately needs to improve, especially with Berrios already in that mix. There are a few other prospects that could factor into this conversation, as well as Tommy Milone if he's kept around (doubtful). But these are the names I would have listed as legitimate options. Obviously, it will be helpful to add more depth and upside to this group, and that will be a priority during the coming offseason. What are your thoughts? Who should be penciled in? If you're the GM, how many starters are you set on acquiring this winter?
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During their reign over the American League Central, from 2002 through 2010, the Minnesota Twins never once allowed more runs than the league average. A far cry from their current state, to say the least.The Twins are on their way to allowing the most runs of any American League team, for the second time in three years. They've been in the bottom three every season since 2011, with the exception of last year when they were ninth. So, things have taken a turn. The franchise appeared to be emerging from its run prevention rut last year but instead, the worst was yet to come. Entering play Thursday, the Twins had allowed 128 more runs than the Rangers. That's 50 more than the gap between between No. 14 Texas and No.1 Cleveland. It's a mess made possible by a pitching staff that has already, with two weeks left to go, allowed more home runs than any Twins staff since the turn of the century, and a defense that has converted the lowest percentage of balls in play into outs of any MLB club. It's been a team effort. As a result, the Twins may lose 100 games despite an offense that's on pace to score 750 runs. There have been seven 100-loss teams since 2010, the last time Minnesota made the playoffs, and none scored more than 615 runs. Obviously, the reimagined front office needs to do whatever they can to prevent anything like this from happening again. The lineup isn't going to slow down. But with the Twins being so far behind the pack on the other side, how can they make up massive ground in a hurry? How can they move back toward the era in which they never failed to field an above-average staff? I thought it might be instructive to take a look back at those years. Where have the Twins strayed? What lessons, if any, might a new baseball ops chief be wise to absorb while incorporating his or her own fresh philosophies? Here were some signatures of those effective 2000s pitching units: 1: Health Sure, those groups had some injuries here and there. That's inescapable. But when you look back, Johan Santana was remarkably durable during his time in Minnesota, and Joe Nathan basically never got hurt until his Tommy John surgery. It sure helps to keep your No. 1 starter and closer healthy for such lengths of time. For me, the leading storylines when looking back at this year's pitching woes will be the ruined shoulders of both Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins. The organization sought to build around these two in a similar fashion as they did with the aforementioned duo. Hughes' performance in 2014 was, arguably, the closest approximation to 'ace-like' for a Twins starter since Santana's departure. Perkins, like Nathan before him, moved into the league's elite tier of closers almost instantly after assuming the role ahead of his 30th birthday. Terry Ryan made long-term commitments to Hughes and Perkins, positioning them as building blocks for the construction of his staffs. And unfortunately, both have descended essentially into worst-case scenarios with their arms. Shoulder injuries are tough, and Santana himself is evidence enough of that. Could Ryan have foreseen this outcome? Maybe last year, but by then both hurlers were entrenched as cornerstones. Could the trainers have prevented it? Doubtful. In this regard, the former GM got dealt a bum hand, and it's a big part of why he's now the former GM. 2: Hitting Lotto Tickets Santana and Francisco Liriano were the two most electric starters to come through the system during those years, and Ryan managed to stumble upon both, more or less, through serendipitous happenstance. Santana was a Rule 5 pick, foolishly discarded by two organizations. Liriano was a toss-in from the Giants in the A.J. Pierzynski trade. TR capitalized on both opportunities and hit big. In the years since, he had no shortage of Rule 5 pick-ups or trades for fringey pitchers, but the big hits evaporated. Alex Meyer and Trevor May weren't so different as prospects from Liriano; big arms with questions surrounding control and/or mechanics. But the inability of either to even define a role in the majors has been a big part of the failure to launch on the pitching front. This brings us to our next item. 3: Developing Control When the Twins acquired Johan, he could hardly find the zone. Tethered to him as a Rule 5 pick, they endured a rookie season in 2000 that saw him issue 54 walks in 86 innings. They helped him find his way, as they did with many others. The Twins both sought out and developed pitchers who could hammer the zone. Sure, it was a specialty of pitching coach Rick Anderson, but he didn't get moldable strike-throwers like Brad Radke and Carlos Silva and Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn by accident. The team actively sought out such profiles, through trades and the draft, and converted them into big-leaguers who succeeded mainly by throwing the ball to the right spot. It's hard to figure where this process has gone amiss. There are still signs that prospects are receiving effective instruction. Jose Berrios had outstanding walk rates throughout the minors. J.T. Chargois had dramatically improved his control by the time he reached Triple-A. But something's not clicking when they make the jump. The Twins actually rank near the top of the league in walk rate overall – one of their lone strengths – but too many of the most important guys aren't figuring it out. It doesn't reflect well on Neil Allen, whose job is undoubtedly in jeopardy. When the Twins assembled a coaching staff for Paul Molitor, they took a gamble on a pitching coach with no major-league experience. There is no evidence that it's paying off. Too many players are failing to grow, or worse regressing, under his watch. Perhaps the Twins would be well served to replace him with a more experienced alternative, who better balances Molitor's lack of experience in the area. Dare I say they should seek a coach who instills an Anderson-esque "throw it over the plate at all costs" mentality? I do believe all of this pales in comparison to one final element. 4: Defense During the decade where "The Twins Way" was forged and worshipped, defense was always a foundational staple. It's what made 'pitch to contact' work. Ryan coveted glove-first players, to the extent that he ran out Doug Mientkiewicz as a longtime regular at first, made Juan Castro an Opening Day shortstop, and basically eschewed the DH position for many years. Playing defense – from making plays to executing basic fundamentals – has been a struggle for this current group. And while that's not a simple problem to solve, it's one that must be attacked from all angles during the offseason. Whether it's personnel, coaching or placement, everything must be critically evaluated. What steps would you take toward reversing the Twins' run prevention woes? What lessons from the past would you apply to the future? Click here to view the article
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The Twins are on their way to allowing the most runs of any American League team, for the second time in three years. They've been in the bottom three every season since 2011, with the exception of last year when they were ninth. So, things have taken a turn. The franchise appeared to be emerging from its run prevention rut last year but instead, the worst was yet to come. Entering play Thursday, the Twins had allowed 128 more runs than the Rangers. That's 50 more than the gap between between No. 14 Texas and No.1 Cleveland. It's a mess made possible by a pitching staff that has already, with two weeks left to go, allowed more home runs than any Twins staff since the turn of the century, and a defense that has converted the lowest percentage of balls in play into outs of any MLB club. It's been a team effort. As a result, the Twins may lose 100 games despite an offense that's on pace to score 750 runs. There have been seven 100-loss teams since 2010, the last time Minnesota made the playoffs, and none scored more than 615 runs. Obviously, the reimagined front office needs to do whatever they can to prevent anything like this from happening again. The lineup isn't going to slow down. But with the Twins being so far behind the pack on the other side, how can they make up massive ground in a hurry? How can they move back toward the era in which they never failed to field an above-average staff? I thought it might be instructive to take a look back at those years. Where have the Twins strayed? What lessons, if any, might a new baseball ops chief be wise to absorb while incorporating his or her own fresh philosophies? Here were some signatures of those effective 2000s pitching units: 1: Health Sure, those groups had some injuries here and there. That's inescapable. But when you look back, Johan Santana was remarkably durable during his time in Minnesota, and Joe Nathan basically never got hurt until his Tommy John surgery. It sure helps to keep your No. 1 starter and closer healthy for such lengths of time. For me, the leading storylines when looking back at this year's pitching woes will be the ruined shoulders of both Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins. The organization sought to build around these two in a similar fashion as they did with the aforementioned duo. Hughes' performance in 2014 was, arguably, the closest approximation to 'ace-like' for a Twins starter since Santana's departure. Perkins, like Nathan before him, moved into the league's elite tier of closers almost instantly after assuming the role ahead of his 30th birthday. Terry Ryan made long-term commitments to Hughes and Perkins, positioning them as building blocks for the construction of his staffs. And unfortunately, both have descended essentially into worst-case scenarios with their arms. Shoulder injuries are tough, and Santana himself is evidence enough of that. Could Ryan have foreseen this outcome? Maybe last year, but by then both hurlers were entrenched as cornerstones. Could the trainers have prevented it? Doubtful. In this regard, the former GM got dealt a bum hand, and it's a big part of why he's now the former GM. 2: Hitting Lotto Tickets Santana and Francisco Liriano were the two most electric starters to come through the system during those years, and Ryan managed to stumble upon both, more or less, through serendipitous happenstance. Santana was a Rule 5 pick, foolishly discarded by two organizations. Liriano was a toss-in from the Giants in the A.J. Pierzynski trade. TR capitalized on both opportunities and hit big. In the years since, he had no shortage of Rule 5 pick-ups or trades for fringey pitchers, but the big hits evaporated. Alex Meyer and Trevor May weren't so different as prospects from Liriano; big arms with questions surrounding control and/or mechanics. But the inability of either to even define a role in the majors has been a big part of the failure to launch on the pitching front. This brings us to our next item. 3: Developing Control When the Twins acquired Johan, he could hardly find the zone. Tethered to him as a Rule 5 pick, they endured a rookie season in 2000 that saw him issue 54 walks in 86 innings. They helped him find his way, as they did with many others. The Twins both sought out and developed pitchers who could hammer the zone. Sure, it was a specialty of pitching coach Rick Anderson, but he didn't get moldable strike-throwers like Brad Radke and Carlos Silva and Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn by accident. The team actively sought out such profiles, through trades and the draft, and converted them into big-leaguers who succeeded mainly by throwing the ball to the right spot. It's hard to figure where this process has gone amiss. There are still signs that prospects are receiving effective instruction. Jose Berrios had outstanding walk rates throughout the minors. J.T. Chargois had dramatically improved his control by the time he reached Triple-A. But something's not clicking when they make the jump. The Twins actually rank near the top of the league in walk rate overall – one of their lone strengths – but too many of the most important guys aren't figuring it out. It doesn't reflect well on Neil Allen, whose job is undoubtedly in jeopardy. When the Twins assembled a coaching staff for Paul Molitor, they took a gamble on a pitching coach with no major-league experience. There is no evidence that it's paying off. Too many players are failing to grow, or worse regressing, under his watch. Perhaps the Twins would be well served to replace him with a more experienced alternative, who better balances Molitor's lack of experience in the area. Dare I say they should seek a coach who instills an Anderson-esque "throw it over the plate at all costs" mentality? I do believe all of this pales in comparison to one final element. 4: Defense During the decade where "The Twins Way" was forged and worshipped, defense was always a foundational staple. It's what made 'pitch to contact' work. Ryan coveted glove-first players, to the extent that he ran out Doug Mientkiewicz as a longtime regular at first, made Juan Castro an Opening Day shortstop, and basically eschewed the DH position for many years. Playing defense – from making plays to executing basic fundamentals – has been a struggle for this current group. And while that's not a simple problem to solve, it's one that must be attacked from all angles during the offseason. Whether it's personnel, coaching or placement, everything must be critically evaluated. What steps would you take toward reversing the Twins' run prevention woes? What lessons from the past would you apply to the future?

