Nick Nelson

You think a guy with a .230 career average, who hasn't played 130 games in a season, got a $25 million deal solely because of one skill, eh?

I think my ideal usage for Polanco, at this point in time, would be sort of a roving infielder. Start at short with fly ball guys on the mound, start at third (with Sano at DH) with more GB-centric starters. Occasionally spell Dozier at second. Seems unlikely though because then what is Escobar doing on the roster. I get what you're saying but I don't see the downside to their strategy. All these guys are coming in on minor-league deals with no strings attached (ostensibly). It's just good to have quality gloves on hand, when there was clearly a shortage in that regard.

Well, speedster who can run around in the corners at least. He hasn't played 360 games in the majors because of his bat. Yeah, Stubbs another guy in a similar vein. Pretty much everyone they have brought in offers at least something defensively.

Under newly installed leadership, the Minnesota Twins haven't been particularly active on the player acquisition front this offseason. What moves they have made, though, have carried a distinct pattern. In efforts to cut down on an obscene 889 runs allowed, the Twins are emphasizing defense.It started with Jason Castro, who netted a $25 million contract as a free agent despite a sub-.700 career OPS. The former Astro generated significant demand due largely to his receiving and framing capabilities. His upgrade behind the plate over Kurt Suzuki – whose $1.5 million deal with the last-place Braves, despite posting a better OPS than Castro in 2016, reflects the league's opinion of his defensive impact – is tough to overstate. It's the biggest splash the Twins have made, but hardly their only effort to incrementally supplement a fielding unit that last year converted balls into outs at the league's worst rate. Castro will likely be backed up – at least initially – by Chris Gimenez, a glove-first veteran backstop. He was brought in on a minor league contract with a spring invite, as was outfielder J.B. Shuck, another defensive specialist. As another example, when the Twins opened negotiations with the Dodgers, they were reportedly targeting Cody Bellinger, who some believe "could be elite" with the mitt at first base. Of course, those trade talks fell through, leaving the club stuck with a grossly overmatched Jorge Polanco at shortstop. On Monday, the front office made a move to create a contingency for this potentially grave weakness. The Twins claimed 27-year-old infielder Ehire Adrianza off waivers from Milwaukee. In order to make room, they designated right-hander Pat Light for assignment, meaning they may lose the asset they acquired only six months ago when they traded Fernando Abad. Despite his .605 OPS in 331 big-league plate appearances – all with San Francisco – it isn't hard to see why Minnesota would take a liking to Adrianza. A majority of his 650 defensive innings with the Giants came at shortstop, where he rated extremely well. (His UZR/150, albeit in a VERY small sample size, is in Andrelton Simmons territory for whatever that's worth.) Given what we saw from Polanco and Eduardo Escobar at the position last year, Adrianza may now be the only legitimate MLB shortstop on the 40-man roster aside from Engelb Vielma, the light-hitting 22-year-old with less than 100 games of experience above Single-A. Don't discount the possibility of this new addition becoming a dark horse contender for the starting shortstop gig. If he outshines Polanco and Escobar enough in the field, the Twins may decide they can live with his offensive shortcomings at the bottom of a lineup that could realistically feature above-average production everywhere else. With the way things played out in 2016, sacrificing defense for offense at one of the most crucial positions on the field is far from ideal, and there's no doubt the head decision-makers recognize this. Click here to view the article

Twins officials have been insistent throughout the offseason that they wished to bolster the bullpen by acquiring a veteran reliever. On Friday they got their guy, signing 36-year-old righty Matt Belisle to a one-year, $2.05 million deal. Let's take a look at how this addition alters the bullpen landscape, and who figures to be the odd man out.First, some words on Belisle and what he brings to the table. My hope going into this offseason was that the Twins would aim for higher upside, seeking to entice a late-inning weapon such as Neftali Feliz or Greg Holland by dangling a potentially open closer job. On a short-term contract, saves are money. Belisle doesn't fit that profile, but isn't a bad get by any means. Dating back to 2010 he has a 3.47 ERA, 3.08 FIP and 1.26 WHIP. His velocity and whiff rates don't scream "dominance" but he has been a very effective reliever for a long time. What he lacks in strikeouts he makes up for with sharp control and consistent ground ball tendencies. Over the past two years he has allowed only three home runs in 80 innings. The well-traveled vet has also spent those two seasons playing for division winners, which was undoubtedly a big part of his allure. In 2015 Belisle made 34 appearances for a 100-win Cardinals team. Last year, his Nationals won 95 games. Given all the talk we've heard about bringing in an experienced player with leadership qualities, it's clear this factor weighed heavily. Belisle looks like a trustworthy middle-innings guy who can give you multiple innings when needed. In essence he is a rich man's Tim Stauffer, and a good bet to fulfill the role Terry Ryan envisioned with that ill-fated signing two years ago. But his presence exacerbates a numbers crunch in the bullpen. There will be some interesting scenarios playing out when the pitching staff reports to Ft. Myers in a week. If we're working under the (probably safe) assumption that Glen Perkins will not be on the Opening Day roster, then these are the relievers we can basically consider locks: Brandon Kintzler, RHP Ryan Pressly, RHP Matt Belisle, RHP Taylor Rogers/Buddy Boshers/Ryan O'Rourke, LHP Barring injuries, those four will be there. Kintzler, Pressly and Belisle have guaranteed contracts and of course Paul Molitor will need a left-hander at his disposal. In fact, he'll probably want at least two in this age of specialized bullpens, and I would suggest that closer-in-training JT Chargois should be pretty close to a lock as well after finishing strong with the Twins in 2016. In a seven-man bullpen, those assumptions would leave one spot open. There are three different players who all have a fairly strong case, but two are likely to be left out - from the roster, and maybe even the organization. First, there's Michael Tonkin. We all recall his unfulfilling 2016 campaign, which yielded a 5.02 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. On the surface, he looks like the unfortunate but obvious underdog. At least, he would be if the old regime were still in charge. Tonkin barely made the roster last spring and did not perform well during his lengthy audition. I would argue, though, that his struggles were tied to misuse. Formerly a dominant Triple-A closer, the flame-throwing righty was thrust into a long relief role, and the extended outings seemed to take a take a toll as he wore down late in the year. I suspect (and hope) that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are curious to see what Tonkin can do in shorter stints. His tremendous success in the minors and his established ability to strike out big-leaguers make him tough to give up on. The team's decision to make room for Belisle by designating Byung Ho Park for assignment confirms their enduring faith in Tonkin, who is out of options. It looks like they intend to give him a real chance this spring. But where would that leave Justin Haley? The Twins had the No. 1 selection in December's Rule 5 draft and decided that out of everyone available, the 25-year-old right-hander was the guy they wanted. Unless they can work out a trade, they must either keep him on the active roster or lose him. With the urgency to repair this pitching staff being as high as it is, the front office cannot get this wrong. If they expose Tonkin to waivers and he gets claimed only to excel in a more fitting role elsewhere, it looks bad. If they send Haley back to Boston and he turns out to be a quality big-league arm, it looks bad. These are the kinds of early missteps that Falvey and Levine can ill afford if they want to win the respect and trust of the fan base (not to mention lingering Ryan loyalists within the organization). So the stakes will be high as they evaluate these two players in Florida. And we haven't yet even mentioned one other name that should be in the discussion. Up to this point the team has been mum regarding its plans for Tyler Duffey. There is a common belief that he's best suited for the bullpen, based on his two-pitch arsenal and his background as a dominant closer in college. There hasn't been any indication that he'll be shifted to relief right away, but it looks like his best path since he's behind both Trevor May and Jose Berrios for the final rotation spot. The Twins have the luxury of taking it slow with Duffey, who has options remaining. They could send him to Rochester in April and allow him to hone his skills in relief. Though he's a likely candidate to succeed – especially if he can add a few ticks to his fastball – it has been a long time since he's pitched in that capacity. Then again, if they try this out in the Grapefruit League and he's firing bullets, how do you send him to the minors? He's a deep sleeper to ultimately take over the ninth-inning gig. Let's not forget how bad Perkins looked in his final run as a starter before almost immediately becoming a lights-out late inning asset. These are intriguing storylines, and there are a few others that could emerge. For instance, what if Perkins is healthy and strong enough to fill a role out of the gates? What if May's transition back to starting doesn't pan, and they opt to slide him back to relief? What if Phil Hughes needs some ramp-up time in the bullpen? There's also minor-league signing Ryan Vogelsong, who some feel is very likely to make the roster with a decent spring. Injuries happen, of course, and the Twins are setting themselves up well for that. But if this group can get through spring relatively healthy, it's going to set up some pivotal decisions at the end of March. Click here to view the article

Because... those things... weren't working?

Here's my take on this offseason. Going in, when I put together our blueprint for the Offseason Handbook, I suggested this series of moves: 1) Sign Castro 2) Trade Dozier for De Leon+ 3) Sign Aybar 4) Sign Feliz They did sign Castro. They tried to trade Dozier for De Leon but the "plus" wasn't enough to make it happen and that's OK. Keeping Dozier pretty much negates signing a veteran SS (though they still could). And while they didn't sign Feliz, I suspect they will still add someone similar. There are reports indicating such. So yes, I personally am content with their approach. If others feel differently that's fine, but we all know that making moves for the sake of making moves is a bad strategy and that seems to be what some folks are suggesting.

And the Twins don't? It's funny because if the Twins had simply held back the likes of Buxton, Sano and Berrios they'd all be top 20 prospects in the game and we'd be giddy about their ability to drive a turnaround this year. It's unfortunate that they've endured varying degrees of struggles in the majors, but the fact that they've gone through those learning experiences is a GOOD thing, not a bad thing. Failing to immediately break through at age 22/23 does not diminish your long-term outlook all that much. Sorry to break it to you, but the best names weren't going to sign with a 100-loss team. Twins weren't going to sign Chapman or Jansen. I would've liked someone like Feliz or Holland but there's no strong evidence those guys will be much better than someone like Blanton, Logan, Romo, Hernandez, or one of numerous other remaining free agents. And the Twins could score a big bargain due to their patience.

Joe Blanton and Boone Logan are both available and both have been tied to the Twins. They are both very good. I'm not sure if you've looked at the remaining relief market but there are still a lot of quality names out there.

I would bet good money that a move is still coming in this regard.

This was not a defense of their offseason decision-making. The point was that regardless of what you think about their moves (or lack thereof) there is plenty of reason to expect significant W/L improvement. 100 losses is not a fair baseline expectation. It's not a straw man. The comment I was responding to asked why the team would make a change in leadership if there wasn't a belief that a new regime could come in and immediately make personnel moves that would shift the needle. And the answer is that there's a lot more to this restructuring than making acquisitions aimed at winning five more games in 2017.

Man. People are grumpy this morning! Not apparently. It is, objectively. And losing 95 games would require basically the same performance as last year (again, they should have lost 96 based on RS/RA). So that would be a tiny step forward. I expect a larger one. Because they didn't hire these guys to completely turn the team around in one offseason? Well unfortunately Alvarez was never on the table. So let's stop playing make believe and hold this discussion based on reality.

The bottom line is that any moves this offseason we're going to make a marginal impact, in isolation. Meaningful improvement needs to be driven by the likes of Buxton, Sano, Berrios, etc. If that doesn't happen, they've got bigger problems.

There has been some hand-wringing, here and elsewhere, about an offseason that's leaving many feeling unfulfilled. We're less than two weeks from pitchers and catchers reporting to Ft. Myers, and the roster has barely been touched. It's easy to feel like we're headed toward another 100-loss slog. It's easy because we are cognitively wired to do so. But don't give in to recency bias. There is more here than meets the eye.No one can deny that 2016 was a disastrous season for the Minnesota Twins. Never before in this franchise's history have things gone so awry. But thankfully, last year is in the past. When the team congregates in Florida they will be doing so with a fresh outlook. Much can change in three months, especially when you're dealing with numerous maturing young players and a completely overhauled baseball operations unit. Last week, Tom Froemming outlined a realistic, though pessimistic, scenario in which the Twins once against lose 100 games. It could happen. But let's keep in mind that last year's team accomplished an historical feat of ineptitude. Making it happen took multiple major injuries to key players, immense struggles from youngsters, inexplicable personnel decisions and plain old bad luck (Pythagorean W/L tells us they should have won seven more games). What has been does not dictate what will be. Especially when you view the state of this Twins roster in context. They've clearly got the makings of an above-average offense. The lineup shined in the latter portion of 2016. As things stand, the only changes are Jason Castro replacing Kurt Suzuki and a designated hitter – probably Byung Ho Park or Kennys Vargas – replacing Trevor Plouffe. I think we can call those swaps a wash, at worst. Then there's the pitching staff. It was cover-your-eyes ugly last year, but this is where the recency bias sets in. For basically every starter except Ervin Santana, 2016 was a complete catastrophe. Kyle Gibson endured his worst season. Ditto Hector Santiago. Phil Hughes had his shoulder crap out. Things couldn't have gone much worse for Tyler Duffey and Jose Berrios. It was, essentially, a series of worst-case scenarios. And the thing about those kinds of lows is that there's nowhere to go but up. I'm not saying these guys are all going to turn around and be world-beaters, but several of them will improve. And with new decision-makers place, we can hope to see players put in better positions to succeed. With most of the organization's top pitching prospects approaching Triple-A, if not already there, contingencies will be on hand to prevent someone like Duffey or Hughes from being sent out start after start with no ability to get outs. After the 2015 season, the Twins themselves fell victim to recency bias. There were underlying signs that their 83-win total was inflated, but still they operated as if they intended to springboard into contention from it. It's hard to blame them, when you consider what a breath of fresh air the competitive baseball was for everyone. But even amid the horrendous results of 2016, the organization did manage to check several important boxes in their rebuilding process. Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano got more experience, stayed mostly healthy, and probably learned some hard lessons. Max Kepler successfully transitioned to the big leagues. Jose Berrios transitioned not-so-successfully but he got those all-important first licks out of the way. Several prospects took steps forward and another key one entered the mix when Eduardo Nunez was traded for Adalberto Mejia at the deadline. And most importantly the Twins picked up the No. 1 pick in the draft, which will give them their choice of any amateur player in the nation this June. If complacency was an issue heading into 2016, it sure won't be this time around. And if poor planning, ill-advised decision-making, or clouded judgment were exacerbating factors, it is fair to be cautiously optimistic that a revamped front office structure will avoid making the same mistakes. Realistically, Minnesota probably will not compete for a playoff spot. Many teams won't. But the Twins will take a step forward. The question is how big it will be. Quiet offseason and all (and I don't think they're quite done), I'm excited to find out. Click here to view the article

On Saturday, Twins Daily held its fourth Winter Meltdown, an annual post-TwinsFest gathering of local baseball fanatics in Downtown Minneapolis. Thanks to tremendous support from our readers and sponsors, as well as the Minnesota Twins themselves, this year's event was without question our biggest and best yet.Before the official start time of 4:30 PM, dozens had already streamed into the basement of Brother's Bar and Grill, which proved to be a fittingly spacious and gracious venue for a crowd that ultimately came close to 300. That so many people would make the trip – some from just a few blocks away at Target Field, others from much further – for this baseball geek-out festival in the wake of 103 losses and a conspicuously quiet offseason is a true testament to the resilient loyalty and hopefulness of Twins fans. Of course, there was beer. So that helps. Tasty taps from 612 Brew were flowing as hardball enthusiasts revved up their engines over chatter, photo sessions and raffle prizes provided by AME Sports. On the main stage, emcee and local comic David Sitrick led the crowd through a series of Q&As and panels. First, Parker Hageman and I took the stage along with Twins Director of Baseball Research Jack Goin for a discussion of the growing use of analytics within his organization and baseball at large. Among the topics broached were changes under the new regime, appealing aspects of newly acquired catcher Jason Castro, and Jack's advice for aspiring statheads looking to break into the industry. Next, John Bonnes and Seth Stohs stepped in for an interview with former Twins reliever, and new front office assistant, LaTroy Hawkins. In candid fashion, Hawk recalled memories from his lengthy major-league career. He had some choice words for one particular umpire, as well as an ex-teammate (whom he only disliked as an opponent... I'm sure you can guess who it is). Finally, the Twins Daily crew was joined on-stage by Aaron Gleeman to answer audience-submitted questions, which ranged from the 2017 outlook to the appropriate number of cats for a household. Good news: if you missed out, you can listen to the entire show on this week's edition of the Gleeman and the Geek podcast. The event was casual and easygoing. Hawkins and Goin were good sports, participating in lighthearted game show style segments after their talks, and both hung around to rub shoulders afterwards. Jack and I went deep on a discussion of the all-time greatest hip-hop artists (he's got love for the oldies). Beat writers like Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press, Phil Miller and La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune, Derek Wetmore of 1500ESPN, and Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com were on hand, and they were all happy to talk Twins with anyone in attendance. Attendees who stayed at the bar until the end of the event and beyond might have spotted and said hello to prospects Stephen Gonsalves and Mitch Garver. When we first concocted this event several years ago, our vision was ambitious, but I don't think we ever could have imagined something of this magnitude. At least I didn't. Each Winter Meltdown has been better than the last, and it's beginning to truly feel like the kick-off celebration Minnesota baseball fans deserve. For that, all credit goes to the people that made WM4 happen: Brothers, 612 Brew, AME Sports, the Twins, and especially all of you who came out. Our only regret is that we couldn't host more of you. Tickets sold out fast, and once they were gone it was a bummer having to turn away people who wanted to join. Fortunately, we've got plenty more fun events in the works, and you better believe we'll be raising our sights next year when the Meltdown turns 5. We'll sign off with some of our favorite tweets using the #TDMeltdown hashtag. Again, thank you to everyone who helped make this a special evening. Seriously. Click here to view the article

The problem with this is that Santana isn't really a super utility guy. He's an outfielder who could play IF in an emergency. Polanco would basically be the reverse, but that's also the exact same role Escobar fills. I don't see how they add another infielder unless they remove one of those two from the equation.

If Falvey's first trade at the helm involves him very publicly relenting and giving in to the other side's demands, it sets a precedent. There is little doubt others will try to similarly take advantage in the future. This is not a "world is flat" type of proclamation, it's common sense.

The conclusion of the piece is that, knowing what we know, Falvey made the right choice in sticking to his guns. If I find out at some point that the Twins turned down an offer of, say, De Leon + Buehler, it would change my view. But there is no indication that anyone from the group of Buehler/Urias/Alvarez/Bellinger was on the table, and I'm not sure there's a two-player package that does the trick without any of them involved. You complain about the "benefit of the doubt almost always given to the FO" but this is not the same front office, and if you're going to give anyone the benefit of the doubt ever, how would it not be this leadership? You could not possibly ask for a more impartial and unattached group to be making this decision. Falvey and Levine have zero history in this organization or with Dozier. Both have been at the negotiating table many times in the past with their other orgs, they understand the dynamics of dealing well. What reason is there to think they had some unreasonably high valuation of Dozier?

Why do you find that hard to believe? That's what basically every report seems to allude. As tobi notes above, any team viewing Dozier's 2016 as a fluke may not see a ton of difference between him and Forsythe. It's very plausible, and perhaps even likely, Friedman and LA felt this way. In that event, why would they offer a ton more for Dozier?

Derek Falvey was probably still unpacking his boxes at Target Field when communications first opened with the Los Angeles Dodgers, setting off months of Brian Dozier trade negotiations that would ultimately prove fruitless. The standoff will almost certainly prove to be a defining point in Falvey's young career.It was quite the situation to inherit. Held up by Cleveland's run to the World Series, Falvey got a belated start with the Twins. At 33, the second-youngest top baseball executive in the league found himself almost instantly entangled in a high-stakes showdown with one of the game's most legendary franchises – led by a high-profile exec in Andrew Friedman – over the best player on his new team. Shortly after he came aboard, Falvey brought in his general manager, Thad Levine. It's likely that Levine handled the majority of the direct discussions. But the two (along with Rob Antony and the rest of the front office) agreed upon a minimum return that would justify moving Dozier, and their unwavering commitment to that valuation ultimately falls upon the top dog. Without knowing the specifics of the best offer Minnesota turned down, it is difficult to cast any immediate judgments. We know Jose De Leon was on the table, but indications continue to suggest that Los Angeles refused to include one of Julio Urias, Yadier Alvarez or Walker Buehler in addition. A lengthy stalemate ensued. On Monday, the Dodgers finally made their move, dealing De Leon instead to the Tampa Bay Rays for second baseman Logan Forsythe, who could fairly be described as "Dozier Lite." Barring some hugely unforeseen development, the Twins will carry now Dozier into the 2017 season. At this moment, that looks like the right move. De Leon is a shiny prospect, and exactly the type of player Minnesota needed back as a headliner, but with a 1-to-1 swap and no meaningful auxiliary components the risks are sky-high. The risk he faces now is that Dozier suffers another first-half slump, or a significant overall regression, while De Leon takes off in Tampa. That glaring missed opportunity would trail Falvey and his front office for a while, especially if the Twins keep wallowing in mediocrity (or worse) and the pitching doesn't improve in a hurry. But I wouldn't say such a combination of outcomes is at all likely. Dozier is a star player in his prime, coming off one of the best seasons in team history. De Leon is a good prospect but hardly a can't-miss. While his numbers in the minors were nothing short of dazzling, there are signs the Dodgers weren't terribly high on him, and not all scouts were either. Per Jeff Passan, the Dodgers held the 24-year-old in lesser esteem than at least three of their other young arms, including one who has thrown five innings as a pro. De Leon has yet to accrue even 115 innings in a season. Baseball America's Josh Norris yesterday relayed a scouting report that pegged him with No. 3 starter upside. And the Dodgers, at the end of the day, were willing to deal him straight-up for a player in Forsythe who is a major downgrade from Dozier. All of these initial indicators point to Falvey and the Twins making the right call. It's possible they'll never get a shot at another prize like De Leon, but that's the gamble they are taking. In turn, they've got a lot of outs. If Dozier sustains – hell, even improves – and a more receptive market develops in July or next winter, there will at least be more robust (if not as top-heavy) offers on the table. And if the Twins manage to jump out to a strong start this season, with Dozier playing a big role? That's an outcome everyone can appreciate. Regardless of how things play out, this much is certain: In his very first weeks on the job, Falvey faced off against a giant in the game, and held his ground. For better or worse, others around the league will not forget it. Click here to view the article