Nick Nelson

In a dispiriting 2018 season that was direly short on bright spots, Mitch Garver was unequivocally one of the best stories, progressively improving over the course of the summer and posting an .814 OPS in the second half. But a concussion suffered in September casts a cloud of uncertainty over the 27-year-old's future. For Twins fans, the familiarity of this feeling makes it all the more unsettling.To play professional sports is to put your body at risk. This is understood. But there are varying degrees of tolerable risk, and past a certain threshold, it becomes irresponsible to put a human being in harm's way. I'm not sure where that threshold lies with respect to Garver and his specific situation. I do know this: When Joe Mauer made the call to move away from catcher after a concussion ended his 2013 season, he talked about coming face-to-face with a sobering reality: "When I kept gathering information, to be honest with you, it wasn't really even a decision," said Mauer, who is signed through 2018 with $115 million remaining on his contract. "I kept searching to see if it was going to be OK, if it was going to be safe for me to go back there and catch, and I just wasn't finding that." He added: "All it could take is one foul tip in pitcher's batting practice, and I'm out for two or three months or even more." Unstated there is the impact on his personal life and his overall wellness. Even though he shifted away from catcher, Mauer experienced prolonged after-effects from his brain injury, which ultimately led him to retire well ahead of schedule. Garver was watching from the dugout when Mauer dove for a fly ball in May, flaring up those nasty concussion symptoms. Garver saw from up-close as Mauer then battled yet another round of life-altering impairments, which sidelined him for a month and were so severe initially he had to spend multiple days away from the stadium. Whatever stories and warnings Mauer heard about the dangers of successive concussions in 2013, Garver has seen first-hand since, torturing a player he deeply respects and admires. The gravity of this situation couldn't possibly be lost on him. Granted, Mauer had caught a lot more innings behind the plate, and had probably taken quite a few more foul tips off the mask. But this isn't about comparative volume. There's no magic number where the risk becomes untenable. Garver does have a troubling history. In his first game this season, he was hit in the side of the head by Manny Machado's bat, leaving Garver staggered and dazed. He wasn't diagnosed with a concussion in that case. "My brain does not hurt, but my skull does, however," Garver said afterward. He did acknowledge in September, though, that he suffered concussions at least twice in the minors, in 2014 and 2016. And although he stayed in to finish the inning after taking a foul tip off Luke Voigt's bat on September 12th (as did Mauer back in 2013 – he finished the game in fact), Garver hasn't donned the catcher's gear since. When you're still experiencing symptoms a week after taking a blow to the head... that's a scary thing. The Twins, for their part, seem to be preparing themselves for a scenario where Garver is unavailable behind the plate. Their reported early interest in Robinson Chirinos, who signed with the Astros on Tuesday for $5.75 million, is noteworthy. Chirinos isn't the kind of guy you bring in as a third catcher or as camp competition; he's an established big-leaguer who's averaged 300 plate appearances with the Rangers over the past five years, with a career OPS (.761) that bests Garver's rookie mark. If Garver were to move away from catcher, it becomes a question of how he figures into the team's plans. At catcher, his numbers were outstanding: Among MLB backstops with 300+ PA, he ranked 10th in OPS (.749), 10th in wOBA (.325), and seventh in hard-contact percentage (40.5%, per FanGraphs). At first base or DH, those numbers don't shine as much, and of course, the Twins already find that mix crowded with defensively limited righty hitters at the moment. Then again, you can make an argument Garver's bat is quite valuable to the Twins wherever they can fit him in. I wrote recently about this club's glaring dearth of OBP strength, which wasn't helped any by the signing of Jonathan Schoop on Thursday, nor the addition of Ronald Torreyes. Garver's .335 OBP this year ranked as the second-highest among players set to return, behind only Jorge Polanco (.345). And if you believe Garver turned a corner as he acclimated to the majors, you might even expect more; from June 1st onward he had a .349 OBP and 9% BB rate. It bears noting that in his preceding breakout season at Triple-A, Garver posted a .387 OBP and 13.4% BB rate over 372 plate appearances. With all that said, it's pretty hard to see him hanging around as strictly a 1B/DH. Does he have the offensive ability of a C.J. Cron or Tyler Austin? Doubtful. And those were readily available waiver types. In order to keep himself essential while not catching, Garver would need to become a versatile roster piece capable of helping in the outfield. In that capacity, his right-handed stick would actually be quite useful amidst a crowd of lefty swingers in the corners. And Garver did make 14 starts in left field at Rochester last year. However, Paul Molitor was never inclined to use him out there, and understandably so. Given his lack of speed or experience, it's hard to imagine Garver being much of an asset in the outfield. If you find yourself lacking for clarity after reading all this, that's kinda the point. Garver is one of the team's most intriguing young players, but also a total wild-card at this juncture. The tight-lipped Twins have been mum about his status. But if their interest in Chirinos was legit and serious, perhaps that says all we need to know. Click here to view the article

I like that they're buying low on a big talent. But this does nothing to help with their OBP issues – in fact it exacerbates them – so I have a hard time getting excited. Right now this looks like a lineup that'll produce a lot of solo homers and strikeouts.

I wouldn't quite go this far. We need to account for the fact that players hit worse away from home in general. It isn't fair to apply his road numbers as his baseline, especially when he shows a lot of positive traits as a hitter. I actually think LeMaheiu would be a nice option at the right price. This piece at FanGraphs was eye-opening for me.

So you've been saying since the start of 2012, when they drafted Buxton, that they should focus internally and build around their own talent. And now that Buxton is 25 years old and entering his ostensible prime, you are advocating that they continue to perpetually follow some bland "be crappy and hope" plan? Your biggest takeaway from what we've seen unfold is that the Twins should stake all their hopes on their top prospects? Personally, yes, I like contending for the division and wild-card. It means they're playing quality baseball, and I don't have to leave Target Field in a bad mood every time I go to watch a game. It means they're relevant in August and September. It means they're starting to establish a culture of winning, which actually matters. I'll never understand the notion that if you don't have a bona fide World Series contending team on paper (which will rarely happen in the age of mega-spending powerhouses), you should just tank.

Are you suggesting he swing at balls? Mauer has one of the highest batting averages with RISP in modern MLB history so criticizing him on this front seems off base. This team ain't lacking for guys who will reach for one and try to drive in a run.

Nice post with some solid reasons for optimism. As I noted in a recent post here on Reed, I'm excited to see how the addition of new coaching voices (Johnson and Hefner) can benefit him.

This is a weirdly defeatist attitude. The AL Central is going to be eminently there for the taking next year, and the Twins should be right in the thick if Buxton & Sano rebound. I'm not sure I understand tanking while staking your future on unspectacular prospects like Rooker and Gordon. Sounds like a recipe for remaining in the perpetual cycle of rebuilding. There are moves on this list that align with a long-term thinking. Bour and LeMahieu are 30. McCutchen would be helpful on a 3-year deal, creating veteran entrenchment. If these kinds of players are holding prospects back any time soon, it's a good problem to have.

The problem is that one is teachable and one really isn't. You can tweak a guy's swing and try to generate better contact results; you can't exactly tell a guy "be more patient" and watch him take more walks. For the most part, people are who they are as hitters.

It is well understood (and intuitively obvious) that on-base percentage correlates highly with run-scoring. In fact, looking at this year's MLB results, you'd conclude it simply correlates with winning. Thirteen of the top 14 teams in OBP finished above .500, and 10 made the playoffs. The Twins now find themselves with a dire scarcity of this treasured resource. Where can they acquire it?It wasn't a big surprise when the team non-tendered Robbie Grossman on Friday, nor was it an especially controversial move. But while Minnesota won't miss his lack of power or defensive prowess, they will absolutely miss his on-base proficiency. Among Twins players to make 500+ PA since 2016, Grossman led all with a .377 OBP. In fact, here's what that list looks like: 1. Robbie Grossman – .377 OBP 2. Joe Mauer – .366 OBP 3. Brian Dozier – .339 OBP 4. Jorge Polanco – .327 OBP 5. Miguel Sano – .323 OBP The top three guys on that list are gone, and Sano is coming off a 2018 campaign where he posted a .281 mark. Needless to say, the Twins are looking at a real deficiency in the on-base category. Of course they're hoping that rebounds and better health will trigger some improvement, but the fact remains: This is a roster full of free swingers with pop, and right now it is very short on disciplined hitters who can draw a walk. The addition of C.J. Cron, who agreed to terms Friday on a one-year, $4.8 millon deal and appears penciled in at first base, doesn't help in this department. He has a .311 career OBP, and even in his career year of 2018 still struck out four times for every walk. It's a weakness the front office will need to address with its remaining offseason moves. Perusing the Offseason Handbook and beyond, let's take a look at nine free agent options that might help move the needle. Justin Bour, 1B This is the kind of player the Twins should have been seeking at first base, in my opinion. With his .853 career OPS against right-handed pitchers, Bour would've been an ideal complement to Tyler Austin (.937 OPS vs. LHP). It's still possible the Twins will seek such an arrangement alongside Cron – also a righty – but that's not likely, which is too bad. In addition to his platooning fit, Bour would bring sorely needed patience to this offensive unit. His BB rates over the past three seasons: 11.8%, 11.0%, 14.6%. His 2018 mark would've led the Twins (Grossman and Mauer included). D.J. LeMahieu, 2B The two-time All-Star and 2016 NL batting champ is hitting the open market for the first time, and has been popular as a theoretical target for the Twins. It isn't hard to see why; over the past three years LeMahieu has slashed .309/.369/.429, and that middle number is especially attractive. In the Handbook, we added this caution: "Like many products of Coors Field, there are questions about his offensive numbers translating elsewhere. His career OPS is 160 points lower on the road than at home." If the Twins were to get an OBP closer to his .277 lifetime mark away from Coors, that would obviously not be helpful. Jed Lowrie, 2B I haven't seen Lowrie's name connected to Minnesota in reports yet, but I have to assume we will. He's a switch-hitter who's proven very adept in Oakland over the past two seasons – even making the All-Star team this year. He also turns 35 in April, so he won't require a long-term deal. If Lowrie's late-career surge with the A's (.356 OBP and .804 OPS in 2017-18) can sustain, he's very appealing. If he reverts to his previous form (.326 OBP and .726 OPS from 2008-16), less so. Logan Forsythe, 2B Should the Twins turn their gaze toward the lower end of the second base pool, they could go with Forsythe on a one-year deal and hope he provides some on-base juice to go along with his solid defense. The veteran posted a .359 OBP in 2015 with Tampa, and a .351 mark in 2017 with LA. He also turned in a .356 OBP in 50 games with the Twins after he was acquired this summer. But that figure stood at a .270 when the Dodgers dealt him, and his .327 career OBP is mediocre. Forsythe's bat has also been anemic the last two years: .228 AVG and .309 SLG. The ability to take walks becomes somewhat trivial at that rate. Michael Brantley, LF Brantley is past his lengthy bout with shoulder issues and back in All-Star form. This year he played in 143 games for Cleveland and posted a fantastic .309/.364/.468 slash line with a 60-to-48 K/BB ratio. He has a .351 career OBP and has been above that number every year since 2014 (except '16, when he played only 11 games). The problem is that he's a lefty-swinging left fielder, so he doesn't really fit with the roster as currently constructed. The Twins would need to shake things up – say, with an Eddie Rosario trade. Nelson Cruz, DH The premier slugger brings OBP (.342 career, .362 the past four seasons) as well as prodigious power, averaging 40 home runs since 2015. He'd be more lineup centerpiece than need-filling pickup, but the Twins could seemingly use one of those. That said, as a 38-year-old with zero defensive value and a big payday on the way, he's very unlikely. Nick Markakis, RF The uber-durable 13-year veteran is entering the market at an opportune time, coming off his best campaign in years. He played all 162 games for Atlanta, posting a .297/.366/.440 line with a 80-to-62 K/BB ratio, and helping push an upstart young squad to a surprise postseason appearance. Sounds like the kind of guy that Minnesota would really benefit from. Markakis has always been a patient hitter, with a .358 career OBP and 10.2% BB rate. But like Brantley, he's a lefty-swinging corner outfielder. Tough to see how that makes sense on a team with Rosario, Max Kepler and Jake Cave – unless the Twins were to, say, have Kepler split time between right and first, with Markakis splitting between right and DH. Andrew McCutchen, RF We now come to my absolute favorite option on this list (and perhaps on the entire offseason market). McCutchen is a former MVP and five time All-Star hitting the market at age 32. In recent years he hasn't been quite the same top-tier superstar, averaging 2.5 WAR the last three seasons compared to 6.9 from 2011 through 2015, but that'll keep his price tag reasonable and he's still a damn fine player. He has a .378 OBP and has been at or above .363 in nine of 10 MLB seasons. His 12.0% career BB rate is higher than Mauer's. Rotating his right-handed bat with the lefty-swinging corner outfielders and at DH would give McCutchen a regular role. He'd be an excellent leadoff guy. Bryce Harper, RF You want OBP? Here's a .388 career OBP and the game's second-highest BB rate since 2015, just sitting there for the taking. How fortuitous! I'm sure he won't cost all the much either. Nope, very affordable and plausible. Who on this list would you like to see the Twins pursue? Are there other OBP-focused additions you'd be targeting? Click here to view the article

Yep. And with that, the Twins restrict themselves from signing someone like Justin Bour, who just became available as a non-tender by Philly. THAT right there is the kind of guy who fits on this roster. Platoon him with Austin at 1B and you could be looking at a 900 OPS from the position, based on their career splits. Plus Bour brings established OBP cred to an offense that is now desperately short on it. Opportunities like this only make it more confounding to me that MN is basically committing to Cron at the outset of the offseason.

Twins and Cron agreed to a deal for $4.8m.

You can rearrange and slice up the numbers all you want. The bottom line is that his overall results as a starter don't match up to the quality of his stuff or his perceived upside. You can keep talking about "potential" and what he might do repeating a level, but that's all very theoretical and subjective. I'll add that Romero is gonna be out of options in 2020 (assuming they use one this year). So while I understand what you're saying about his missed time setting him back, they're not working with some infinite clock to bring him along and get him into a workable major-league role.

Because... A: This "potential" is not as blatant as you suggest. For all his obvious ability, the fact is that at age 24, Romero still has yet to dominate any higher level. He has an 8.6 K/9 & 1.35 WHIP at Double-A, and a 6.8 K/9 & 1.29 WHIP at Triple-A. He excelled for his first three starts in the majors and then he got shelled. He had a 9% swinging strike rate in the second half of his outings (Triple-A included). NINE PERCENT! With his stuff! That's lower than Tyler Duffey. I love Romero too but we can't stay blinded by his theoretical upside and ignore what's in front of us. B: This is his quickest path to making an impact in the majors. The Twins can't really count on him for a rotation spot with the way he looked in the second half. C: It's not permanent. In the Jesse Chavez comparison I pointed to, Passan envisioned a 100-120 IP multi-inning fireman role. That would keep Romero's arm conditioned for a return to starting. Heck, Adam Wainwright threw 75 innings as a shutdown reliever at age 24 and then threw 200 innings over 32 starts the following year.

And despite this aggressive workload management, he has STILL pretty evidently worn down in each of the past two seasons. Take a look at what happened to his numbers in August both years. That's kinda the point here.

Good point that's being downplayed here. Neither Cron nor Austin are very good defensively. So while you might lose a bit in the outfield on days Kepler plays first, the gains you're likely making in the infield matter -- especially if there's a GB-centric pitcher on the mound.

He was sidelined for a bit with back issues (for the first time) but still made 48 total appearances that season. Prior to the Twins trying him in the bullpen he'd pretty much never missed a start in his pro career (I think he had a minor calf injury in like 2014). So the previous comment about a "career of breakdowns" seems quite off-the-mark to me. I'm not sure everyone fully understands just how durable May has been in his career outside of those two (arguably fluky) injuries. And he looked as strong as ever by the end of this year. They're not mutually exclusive ideas. I would hardly say the Twins are "flush" at 1B.

? May had literally never missed time with an arm injury before the UCL tear.

With the offseason underway, there is naturally a widespread focus on signings and trades to bring in new talent. But I think we all fundamentally understand that, in order for the Twins to turn things around and reach their potential in short order, it'll need to be driven by drastic internal improvements.Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano are the headliners in that discussion, with good reason. Who knows what the future holds for those two. But elsewhere, I see four opportunities for the Twins to work with what they have, get a little creative, and maybe shore up some key areas of uncertainty. 1: Have Max Kepler split time between between the outfield and first base One of the Dodgers' most valuable players during their run to the World Series this year was Cody Bellinger, whose versatility and strong bat made him a key asset. During the regular season, Bellinger played in every single game, making 85 starts at first base and 50 in center field. That's a combination you rarely see, because few players possess the skill set to make it work. Bellinger does, and so does Kepler. Although the latter has played first base sparsely in the majors (just 4 1/3 total innings), he made a few dozen starts there as a minor-leaguer. Given his athleticism and coordination, it stands to reason he'd be solid at least and perhaps outstanding. We already know what he can do in the outfield. Kepler's become one of the league's best defensive right fielders and he's shown quite well during his 500 career innings in center as well. Having him split time between the first base and right field, while occasionally spelling Buxton against righties in center, would enable the Twins to extract big value of from Kepler, even if his offensive production remains somewhat modest. And if he takes the step forward we're all hoping for with his bat? Well, a season closely mirroring Bellinger's 2018 (.260/.343/.470, 25 HR, 3.6 WAR) is hardly out of the question. Committing to this arrangement would give the front office much more flexibility in attacking the offseason. With Kepler adding some much-needed left-handed balance to a first base mix that now includes CJ Cron and Tyler Austin, Minnesota can feel better about rostering both (should they desire). And with a bunch of playing time opening up in right field, the Twins can go out and add another RF/DH type who can thump. 2: Use Fernando Romero out of the bullpen I'm the biggest Fernando Romero advocate you're gonna find. I've been steadfast in my belief he's got the makings of a workhorse, front-of-rotation starter. And I could still see it. But at this point, even I can't deny the obvious logic in activating the righty out of the bullpen. In a way it feels wasteful to limit Romero to short stints, with his big frame and ability to maintain high-90s heat late into games. But despite having the build and sustainable velocity of a 200-IP starter, he hasn't held up. Romero lost two consecutive years of his development to recurring injuries, and since returning he's been susceptible to late-season breakdowns. He might just be better suited for a relief role. Luckily, that's not the same diminishment it was once was. As relievers become more and more impactful, a high-powered arm capable of throwing multiple innings is an advantageous weapon indeed. I'd love to see Romero open the season with the Twins and fill a role similar to the one Jeff Passan envisions here for newly signed Jesse Chavez of the Rangers: 3: Unleash Trevor May as a starter (or "primary") On the flip side, we have here a current reliever who might be a better fit for the rotation. Trevor May of course finished the 2018 season at closer, and he looked downright phenomenal. I know some might be asking, why mess with a good thing? That's fair, but I'm just not ready to give up on May as a starter. He was shaping up nicely in that capacity during spring of 2017 before requiring Tommy John surgery. Unlike Romero, he's mostly been very durable and his arm has fared well under a starter's workload (last year notwithstanding). Also: With at least four quality pitches, May absolutely has the repertoire depth to take on lineups multiple times. Use him as a traditional starter, or as a primary following an opener, as you please. I think May has what it takes to be an effective pitcher over 150 innings. If it doesn't take, they can send him back to the bullpen; it's much easier to make that transition in-season than the reverse. And it feels like if Minnesota keeps May in the bullpen next spring, then it becomes permanent. That's not necessarily a bad thing given what we saw in the second half. But still, give him one more shot. 4: Give Willians Astudillo 500 at-bats Yes, I yearn for the sheer joy of watching Astudillo play everyday. Who doesn't? But there's also a solid case to be made for turning the scrappy 27-year-old into a fixture and seeing what he can do. All he's done lately is hit. In 2017 he batted .342 with a .928 OPS at Class-AAA Reno in Arizona's system, and then he batted .319 in the Venezuelan Winter League. The Twins signed him and watched him post a .782 OPS at Triple-A before finishing with a 22-game stretch in the majors that saw him hit .378/.397/.554 with two strikeouts in 78 plate appearances. Accounting for his first stint with the Twins, Astudillo appeared at five different positions (C, 2B, 3B, LF, CF) while posting an .887 OPS as a rookie. Now, he's back in Venezuela, batting .353 for Caribes with one strikeout in 156 PAs. When you look at Astudillo and his long-term track record, it's tempting to dismiss his run of success as a fluke. But when a guy literally almost never whiffs, and consistently makes good contact (his soft-hit rate in 2018 was lowest of all Twins other than Jake Cave and Joe Mauer), it's a decent formula for high averages. As we're seeing. Plus, Astudillo can plug in at catcher, third base, DH and elsewhere when needed. By rotating him around and finding a place for him most days, the Twins can keep other starters fresh and rested – perhaps most importantly, Sano and Mitch Garver. Meanwhile, Rocco Baldelli keeps a pesky spark plug in his lineup regularly. Astudillo is beloved by teammates, cherished by fans, and admired by not-traditionally-athletic types everywhere. His all-out effort and hustle set a great example. There is of course risk in counting on Astudillo, signed as a minor-league free agent almost exactly one year ago, for such a prominent role. But the Twins are in position to take some risks and this feels like one worth taking. That's all I've got for now. What say you all? Like these ideas? Hate 'em? Got an outside-the-box notion of your own? Let's hear it in the comments. Click here to view the article

I mean yeah, if you wanna make decisions on the basis of one year while ignoring track record and projection, sure. Carlos Santana is neither ancient (he's 32) nor injury-ravaged (he's never made fewer than 600 PAs in a season). The implication that he's breaking down is not supported by evidence. He had a bad month of April this year and then he was his normal self (.808 OPS).

Carlos Santana's WAR in 2017: 2.9 Robbie Grossman's career WAR: 2.6 C'mon

Santana would've ranked first or second among Twins regulars in OBP in each of the last 6 years. He's also been extremely durable and extremely consistent. With Mauer departing, he's the kinda player MN badly needs. Another free-swinger with mediocre on-base skills and some power? Meh. They got that in spades.

Austin (age 26): .232/.290/.469 (.758) Cron (through age 26): .267/.308/.453 (.760) I'll grant that Cron is better right now but from my view Austin has same/equal upside, and with where this team's at I'm not sure Cron's a better fit by any means.