Nick Nelson

Florimon in his best season with the Twins (age 26) had a .611 OPS. Buxton had a .714 OPS at age 22 and a .728 OPS at age 23. He also has an .874 OPS in the minors, 200 pts higher than Florimon. The two aren't comparable offensively. I think some folks are reeeaallly letting recency bias skew their perception of the realities here.

How is this backed up by evidence? He was healthy enough to play 140 games in 2017 and this year he missed time because of migraines, a broken toe suffered on a foul ball, and a wrist strain that (to my knowledge) was not caused by any reckless collision. I'm gonna go ahead and say there's zero chance Buxton is out of baseball in five years, barring catastrophic physical issues. He was deemed the most valuable defensive player in the major leagues one year ago!

And if he doesn't ever break out, a first one won't be waiting for him. I'm sure Buxton believes in himself, and clearly I believe in him too, but he knows all too well that sometimes it's outta your hands. No one can echo that better than his new manager.

I don't think arbitrarily breaking his entire performance up into equally weighted "months" tells us much. I do know this much: He had an OPS above 700 four out of six months last year, including an .896 OPS over the last three. He showed continual, progressive improvement to the point where he was MVP-caliber the last stretch of the year. The evidence I'm seeing suggests that Buxton is a rhythm player who never got into a rhythm this year because he was constantly hurt. By the end in Triple-A he finally had but it was too late. The idea that we should suddenly expect Buxton to be a baseline sub-600 OPS guy seems crazy to me.

I usually go by the WAR calculation on FanGraphs, but your mileage may vary. And with your second remark, I think you might be inadvertently making my point for me. And then he was one of the best players in the league. Through ups and downs, it all amounts to 4.6 WAR accrued before the age of 25 (or 6.9) if you prefer BR's version. That's a rare feat in Twins history. I don't mean to keep falling back on WAR as some sort of be-all, end-all because it has its flaws, but I feel like the immense value of Buxton's defense and base running continually gets lost in this discussion. I know it's easy to get caught up in the ugliness of his lows at the plate but Buck has been a net positive contributor, easily. And he was on a clear upward trajectory until this train wreck of a year. This is a resilient dude with all the talent in the world and a good heart. That's someone you bet on.

Joe Mauer is hanging up his cleats after 15 years in the major leagues, all spent with his hometown team. On Friday afternoon, the Star Tribune reported that Mauer has taken out a full-page ad in Sunday's edition to announce his decision. The former MVP and six-time All-Star retires with the second-most hits in Minnesota Twins history; his 2,123 trails only Kirby Puckett (2,304).When the Twins selected the local high school star Mauer first overall in 2001, opting for the Cretin Derham Hall star over vaunted USC ace Mark Prior, it was a controversial choice. But it would ultimately be prove to be the correct one. Mauer developed into one of the best-hitting catchers in big-league history, winning three batting titles and batting .323/.405/.468 through 2013. Late in that season, he endured a jarring blow to his mask on a foul tip, and was never the same after. Lingering concussion effects led to a position switch, and Mauer was never the same standout asset as a first baseman. We'll surely be in for some heated Hall of Fame debates five years from now, but for the time being, let us reflect upon one of the greatest careers in this franchise's history. Click here to view the article

I think we can all agree that any discussion of "floor" goes out the window when you're talking about seasons utterly demolished by injuries. I recognize that Buxton's style of play makes him more injury-prone than others but I don't expect to see him play 28 MLB games in a season often. I laid out a vision in the blueprint linked in the article. Basically it calls for aggressive early raises, while the Twins have financial flexibility, and then reasonable salaries on the back end.

He tied for the 10th best WAR among AL hitters this year, and led a team that won 100 games.

This is hard for me to fathom. Buxton's floor is basically a solid regular with elite defensive value and minimal offensive contribution. Sano's floor is... I dunno. Chris Carter? Worse? He has nothing to fall back on if he's not an outstanding hitter. Furthermore, only one of those guys has ever given any reason to question his drive, focus and commitment.

What do other players have to do with Buxton? His circumstances are special and unique, creating perfect conditions for a deal that makes sense both ways. Very few position players with his ability have as much motivation to lock up financial security at this stage. Also, I don't recall saying anything about signing Buxton into his mid-30s being a "good idea." I said if he hits the market at age 30/31 as a star-caliber player, he'll have no trouble landing another large contract. You're the one talking about market precedent; that happens with numerous players every single offseason.

Because he's getting ~$50 million in guaranteed money, which is like 7x his lifetime earnings up to this point and will take care of his family no matter what happens. And he can still reach FA in his prime. If he develops as he (and we) hope, he should have no trouble procuring another big contract at age 30/31 or so. Frankly, so long as the Twins come correct with the terms, I think it's pretty much a no-brainer for him.

On August 17th, 2017, Byron Buxton broke his own Statcast record by sprinting around the bases in 13.85 seconds on an inside-the-park homer. I thought that was fast until I saw how quickly a large contingent of Twins fans somehow turned on the franchise's most vital asset.When I posted my spend-happy offseason blueprint earlier this week, full of far-fangled notions, somehow the suggestion that drew most skepticism was a Buxton extension. I've seen numerous people suggest he's no longer a player you can plan around. On Twitter the other day, some dude tweeted at me "Cave is better than Buxton." It blows my mind that Twins fans, fresh off watching Aaron Hicks achieve superstar status in New York, can make these kinds of comments. Hicks was the original Buxton: He was called up too soon, because his athleticism and minor-league performance were irresistible, and then he endured a long battle with the MLB learning curve. Hicks was so psyched out at one point he briefly gave up switch-hitting. Now, at age 28, he just put up a top-25 WAR in the majors. He's one of the best players on a championship-caliber team. After plenty of ups and downs, Hicks finally figured it all out, at the center of his theoretical "prime." It's hardly a unique scenario. And here's the thing: Buxton is WAY BETTER than Hicks. That's not even debatable. Buxton's age-23 season in 2017 was vastly better than any of Hicks' seasons with the Twins through age 25. Although their paths have been notably similar – from two-way prep stars to first-round draft picks to top prospects to early big-league debuts – Buxton has outpaced Hicks at every step. And yet, now I see people ready to give up on Buxton, as a 24-year-old coming off an undeniably crappy campaign. We've been here before. And we've seen what happens after. Yes, there is a chance that Buxton never quite figures it out, or his injury woes prevent him from ever being a truly productive player. It's a bigger chance than it was a year ago. In his own mind, Buxton needs to account for that reality, and so does his agent. Which is why a long-term extension makes all the sense in the world for both sides right now. A lengthy pact in the $50 million range with an upfront bonus would be more than tenable for the Twins and would seemingly be appealing to Buxton, who could still hit the market around age 30. It would also establish some needed stability in a clubhouse with no long-term commitments, while soothing whatever tension remains after the September snub. From the moment they drafted him second overall 2012, and watched him blossom into the unanimous top prospect in the game, the Twins have envisioned Buxton becoming their franchise centerpiece right about now. To let one wayward season obscure that view would be to ignore a lengthy history of similar cases – not to mention Buxton's blindingly obvious abilities. Believe in Byron Buxton. Pay the man. And slow down with the jabs, because they're gonna look absolutely silly in hindsight. Click here to view the article

This is a very good point. When you think about it, a lot of this regime's uncharacteristic spending has ultimately been in the name of future investment (i.e., signing useful FAs on flippable one-year deals and eating salary to get prospects in the Jaime Garcia flip). But I do think it's important to get some continuity established, which is why I felt the contract extensions and a couple long-term FA pacts were warranted. Levine more or less admitted in BP's interview that all the one-year deals and uncertain futures were a distraction this year. The FO has now escaped all of its inherited commitments, so they can pick the guys they really wanna build around.

I think you'll enjoy the next two angles comin' from Parker and John.

I don't think it's quite that simple. Why didn't every other team's payroll rise accordingly? How come MN's spending didn't spike along with revenues in 2012, after MLB signed a massive new deal with Turner and FOX? If anything, this all just serves to reinforce my final point above: "While $150 million might seem like a huge number through the lens of Twins fans, it's really not that outrageous in the scope of today's MLB. It just isn't."

Also, allow me to add that these comparisons to a typical corporate business setting are frightfully off-the-mark. Does anyone actually think pro sports operates in the same mindset as standard consumer-facing companies? Yes, ownership is interested in turning profit and driving revenue. But doing so is entirely dependent on fan interest, which is currently as low as it's been in 15 years (as far as attendance is concerned). I'm not sure how you can argue from a business standpoint that investing extra right now to rejuvenate interest and thrust the team back toward contention would be some sort of epic blunder, especially when it doesn't involve pigeonholing themselves into that kind of spending long-term. (To the contrary: I see players like Berrios/Corbin/Buxton becoming the building blocks surrounded by cheaper young talent from the pipeline.)

Sure, that's fair. BUT, I think a few folks are overstating the importance of historical trends and existing evidence in this discussion, while ignoring some pretty obviously relevant factors. Namely, this: Before last offseason, what reason was there to think we were gonna see an all-time high payroll in franchise history in 2018? Falvey and Levine have essentially had one full offseason at the helm, and it resulted in more spending than we've ever seen before from the organization. And while $150 million might seem like a huge number through the lens of Twins fans, it's really not that outrageous in the scope of today's MLB. It just isn't.

The Twins had a payroll of $129.5m this year and yet it is a "fantasy" to envision a rise over $130m? Ok. To reiterate (again) no one is saying you should expect this payroll. It's merely an exercise to show what might be possible under such flexible constraints. If the Twins land at $115m, as you suggest, they'll still have almost $50m to spend, and could make several of the moves outlined. These kinds of comments make me sad. And I think they'll look pretty silly a year from now. What short memories we seem to have...

I went back and forth on whether the Iglesias trade concept was realistic. In a way it does feel light because Raisel is a beast, and I'm sure no one's entirely sold on Gonsalves or Cave. But then again, with supply levels rising, the expected return for even established high-quality closers has clearly dropped. Look at what the Rays got for Alex Colome from Seattle in May, with almost 3 years of team control remaining. In any case, the concept is more important than the specifics here. Bottom line is that I think the Twins would be very wise to trade away some of their redundant, cheap young talent in exchange for semi-pricey veterans on rebuilding teams.

Did you miss the entire setup for this piece? The idea here is to show what kind of moves might be possible IF the Twins were to push payroll to the maximum level within reason. They probably won't spend as little as $80M either but we looked at that scenario last week. I'm not sure why you're acting like a ~$140M payroll is some absurd notion; it'd be 53% of the 2017 revenue total you listed, and MN supposedly aims to invest 51% of revenue back into player spending. What you're calling "assumptions" are really just hypothetical scenarios. It was stated repeatedly in the article that one shouldn't realistically expect quite this high of a total.

As the offseason gets underway, our team at Twins Daily is formulating blueprints that exemplify differing approaches the front office might take this offseason. Last week Tom presented a trade-heavy changing of course, while Seth envisioned an internally focused rebuild. Today we'll have some fun and draw up a scenario in which the Twins really open up the wallet and push payroll to new (not totally implausible) heights. Join the fun by downloading your copy of the 2019 Offseason Handbook and creating a blueprint in the forum.The Minnesota Twins opened the 2018 season with a $129.5 million payroll. It was the highest figure in franchise history, but still ranked just 16th among MLB teams. This tells you all you need to know about where the league currently stands with spending, even after a conspicuously splurge-averse 2017-18 offseason. The Twins probably won't spend more in 2019 than they did in 2018. But there's not much reason they couldn't. Pushing payroll into the $150 million range would still place Minnesota comfortably among baseball's mid-tier spenders. And if they actually were working under such a cap, they'd have about $80 million in available funds for next year. How to spend all that money?! I'll see if I can find a way while adhering to the model of sustainable, long-term thinking. Step 1 | Sign two building-block players to extensions: RHP Jose Berrios (4 years, $45M + two team options) and OF Byron Buxton (5 years, $54M + team option) Berrios and Buxton are both four years away from free agency. Neither has made big money yet, and each has motivation to lock up long-term financial security. This is the perfect time to strike, and with their financial flexibility, the Twins can offer upfront bonuses to incentivize. I'm envisioning a Berrios deal similar to the ones signed by Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco in Cleveland, with team options on the back end in exchange for guaranteed money now (pitching is a dangerous profession). Meanwhile, Buxton gets locked up for his prime years, reasonably if he's a solid contributor and ultra-reasonably if he's a star. Both can still hit the open market around age 30. The terms might not exactly align with what I've laid out above, but you get the idea. For the purposes of this blueprint and its payroll calculus, I'm carving out $4 million for each in 2019 (several times what either would otherwise stand to make). Step 2 | Grab your frontline starter by signing free agent LHP Patrick Corbin (5 years, $120M) In the Offseason Handbook, we deemed Corbin the best starting pitcher on the free agent market. Last year, the Twins pursued Yu Darvish late into the offseason but ultimately came up short. This time around they get their guy, reeling in the stud southpaw Corbin coming off a career year. He joins Berrios as entrenched rotation cornerstones for the next half-decade. It's not an investment without risk (we all saw what happened with Darvish), but I feel good about Corbin, who posted stellar numbers in hitter-friendly Arizona and only seems to be hitting his stride at age 29. Step 3 | Enlist two free agent relievers: RHP Kelvin Herrera (3 years, $25M) and LHP Jerry Blevins (1 year, $6 million) Power bullpens are the name of the game. The Addison Reed signing didn't work out, but I'm biting the bullet and spending on Herrera, aiming high but not quite at the Craig Kimbrel/Jeurys Familia tier. Herrera can step in as closer, or as top setup man with Trevor May keeping the ninth; either situation sounds great with Taylor Rogers also around as a proven late-inning arm. As lefty specialist, I'm enlisting one of the best in Blevins (585 career OPS vs LHB) on a short-term deal. Step 4 | Add another power relief arm by trading LHP Stephen Gonsalves and OF Jake Cave to Cincinnati for RHP Raisel Iglesias (2 years, $11.4M remaining on contract) I wasn't kidding about the power bullpen thing. Iglesias is a stud reliever with two years left on his contract, and the Reds are going nowhere at present. Flip them a couple young MLB-ready assets and weaponize Iglesias as a strategic fireman of the new era. Having Iglesias on hand in addition to Herrera, May, Rogers, Reed, Blevins and Trevor Hildenberger would enable Rocco Baldelli to stack relievers behind (or in front of, whatever floats your boat) the starters in the back half of the rotation. (By the way, the back half of my rotation includes Fernando Romero, because I think he's ready and I had to nontender or trade Jake Odorizzi, whose estimated $10 million via arbitration couldn't be justified in this scenario.) Step 5 | Alrighty, on to the offense: Sign 3B Josh Donaldson for 1 year, $15 million That contract estimate would've been unthinkable a couple years ago, but things have changed for the former MVP. He took a step backward in 2017 and stumbled badly in 2018, playing only 52 games amidst recurring calf issues. Admittedly this contract estimate (via the Handbook) might be a bit low, but it's feasible Donaldson could go for a one-year deal in that vicinity to rebuild value. He'd fit nicely with Minnesota, where there's flexibility to adjust to his new reality. If he can play still play third, great, Sano goes to first. If Donaldson is better off at first, then Sano gets another year to show what he can do at the hot corner. Granted, each of these sluggers has his question marks, but I'm not committed to either beyond 2019. And the upside of this corner combination... whew. Step 6 | Sprinkle in some versatility: Sign utilityman Marwin Gonzalez for 3 years, $33 million The thing about rostering Sano and Donaldson along with Tyler Austin and Robbie Grossman (who I'm bringing back as DH/OF for a reliable dose of OBP) is that there are some major defensive limitations going on. To offset this, we add Gonzalez, who's played all over the field for the Astros while providing a steadily solid switch-hitting bat. I'm actually plugging him in as the right field starter, with Buxton and Max Kepler rotating until at least one establishes himself as a clearly deserving full-time regular. And if both do (which I'm bullish on), Gonzalez can be used elsewhere. Crucially, he can play third, which helps reduce the risk of our previously stated Sano/Donaldson plan. Step 7 | Shore up the D: Sign SS Jose Iglesias (2 years, $18 million) He's not much of a hitter (.666 OPS the past three years), but Iglesias is among the best defensive shortstops in the league, and he's only 28, so I'm happy to pony up for him as my No. 9 hitter. Sliding Jorge Polanco to second while inserting Iglesias at short vastly improves my middle-infield defense, and this commitment is short enough to segue nicely to Royce Lewis in 2021. ROTATION ($45M) Jose Berrios (4M) Patrick Corbin (24M) Kyle Gibson (8.5M) Michael Pineda (8M) Fernando Romero (0.5M) Download attachment: rotation.png BULLPEN ($32M) Kelvin Herrera (8.3M) Trevor May (1.5M) Taylor Rogers (1.5M) Raisel Iglesias (5.7M) Addison Reed (8.5M) Jerry Blevins (6M) Trevor Hildenberger (0.5M) Download attachment: bullpen.png LINEUP ($55M) C: Jason Castro (8M) 1B: Miguel Sano (3M) 2B: Jorge Polanco (0.5M) SS: Jose Iglesias (9M) 3B: Josh Donaldson (15M) LF: Eddie Rosario (4M) CF: Byron Buxton (4M) RF: Marwin Gonzalez (11M) DH: Tyler Austin (0.5M) BENCH ($9.5M) C: Mitch Garver (0.5M) MI: Ehire Adrianza (2M) OF: Max Kepler (3M) OF: Robbie Grossman (4M) Download attachment: offense.png TOTAL: $141.5 million Okay, granted, when you add in the money still owed to Phil Hughes, and the buyouts for Ervin Santana and Logan Morrison, it's up closer to $150 million. But such a number still would've ranked around the league median in 2018, and that's before the anticipated spending spree poised to take place this winter. Plus, look at that beauty. This roster is built to win the division and boasts some staying power. With Chicago, Detroit and KC all rebuilding, and with Cleveland talking about trading away parts to trim payroll, one could argue the time is ripe for full-fledged investment. I think we can safely say the Twins won't be quite as active and splashy as I've suggested above, but the point to take away here is this: right now we're looking at an almost completely fresh slate, with a wide-open horizon of roster-building opportunity. You could pick and choose from the ambitious list above and arrive at a more realistic payroll figure while still upgrading with big names in several areas. High-profile free agents like Corbin, Gonzalez, Herrera and Donaldson are very much on the table, and Minnesota's front office should be seeking opportunities to acquire established difference-makers from rebuilding clubs. If you were calling the shots, what would be your course of action this winter? Download the Offseason Handbook to see all the options at your fingertips. Click here to view the article