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drjim

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Everything posted by drjim

  1. drjim
    Somewhat interestingly, exit velocity analysis will show that the best way to get hits is really hard or exceptionally soft (slow rollers, bloops, etc). The medium hits are converted to outs at the highest rate. So Mauer's exit velocity consistency, combined with a spray chart that can shifted against effectively, have conspired to make him really efficient at hitting into outs.
  2. drjim
    To be fair, the calling for a Gibson extension probably had a lot to do with the alternatives.
  3. drjim
    So fun. Please, please, please get that k rate down, everything else will be golden.
  4. drjim
    It is early, but it does seem a little sustainable if he can keep that k rate manageable. Seems like he'll start hitting with a little bit more pop and his babip has to climb with his speed.
  5. drjim
    Also coincides with more resources available. Whether that was driven by Smith or a new reality thanks to Target Field (and other revenue sources) we can't answer. I generally think Smith brought a new aggression made possible by a new revenue reality.
  6. drjim
    Pretty sure, despite being the highest, he was still only about $700k, Polanco was $575k. They had an international budget that was set and Polanco and Kepler fit into it, and was representative in the years before, and especially after (once Target Field was open). Sano was an off the budget type of deal. I'm very glad they did too. Good scouting.
  7. drjim
    Kepler and Polanco would have been signed under anyone, they were nothing special budget wise. Smith had to really push to get Sano. That was a nice gift to the organization.
  8. drjim
    Losing 15-20 lbs probably helped too.
  9. drjim
    I'm not going to complain too much, but the 33% K rate could use some improvement. If that bumps down, even with an inevitable babip drop he might be able to maintain a similar level of OPS and wRC+. I do wonder if his higher K% does lead to a better babip and ISO. Wouldn't fiddle with the approach *too* much.
  10. drjim
    Both Melotakis and Burdi have injury considerations. I suspect that if they bullpen doesn't implode, they'll slow play them as long as possible to ease them into the workload. If they stay healthy I imagine both will be up later in the season to give them a taste.
  11. drjim
    Did Terry Ryan actually say that about salaries? I couldn't find a quote from him about it.
  12. drjim
    When baseball figures out the agreement to allow lift the local blackout they'll be really set. It is pretty interesting what a small percent of revenues comes from national contracts. MLB is actually quite cutting edge with the revenue they get from advanced media. Will prop them up if/when rights fees drop.
  13. drjim
    That second point would be fun.
  14. drjim
    I'm not certain there would be a clear way to balance this. If Sano has no interest in staying they're in a tough spot. To compete quickly they'd have to throw a lot of money at very uncertain risks of extending Dozier, mid-rotation arms, relievers and the like. That bill would come due and would likely be severe. Quick competition has to mostly come internally, otherwise it will be a minimum of 3-4 years.
  15. drjim
    Or better yet, if they actually had players worth paying. They were so desperate they couldn't stop handing out terrible extensions.
  16. drjim
    Some go up, some stay even, some go down, depending on competitive cycles. I don't think payroll is the issue, it was incompetent front office work. I'll always argue that line of thinking gets Ryan off the hook. If the Twins were good and filling Target Field and needed to pay some players, they would.
  17. drjim
    6-35 with some options is probably a good deal for Kepler and Polanco this offseason.
  18. drjim
    Also, wouldn't be surprised if he wanted to add something like 5-165 as a player option on the backend.
  19. drjim
    They might be able to get an 8 year deal, with free agency when he's 30. Digger a little deeper, it will be a minimum of $25 mil for the FA years, and I think we are light on the arb years. Maybe 2-5-13-16-27-27-27-27 8, $144mil. He might not even take it.
  20. drjim
    It is definitely this offseason or not happening. Once Machado and Harper break the bank in 18-19 there's no incentive for any elite player to sign an extension.
  21. drjim
    Kepler and Polanco are the types that are most likely to agree to the early extensions. The elite guys are the ones you need to open the pocketbook for.
  22. drjim
    They spent $7mil more on (40 man) contracts last year than they did in Smith's last year. The myth that won't quit.
  23. drjim
    Buxton now in positive wRC+ territory!
  24. drjim
    If the Twins play this right, they can acquire someone as good as Sano who they can then trade a couple years into his career.
  25. drjim
    Finally someone's being realistic. Might be able to knock down some of the FA years annual value for a little more upfront money, but I'd do it either way.
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