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drjim

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Everything posted by drjim

  1. drjim
    Fair, but the rumors makes me wonder if he is seeking a different role this year than trying to rebuild value as a closer like Feliz and Casilla and perhaps others might be. And if you overpay too much it impacts the return you can get if you try to flip him midseason.
  2. drjim
    I think there's a good chance that many of the ways people complained about the previous regime about roster construction and management are pretty much the way that all teams operate even under all different kinds of leadership groups and styles. There will be organizational changes and improvements at the margins, probably most especially in talent acquisition and development, but much about roster management will be more or less the same. Decisions around keeping players that are out of options, or giving first opportunities to players with contracts, or sending younger players to the minors longer than we might like are not going to suddenly change, if for no other reason than teams like to build depth and don't like to cut loose contracts until they absolutely have to.
  3. drjim
    Putting Berrios in the pen would be a massive mistake for a team in the Twins position. No chance. I wouldn't be surprised if Hughes ends up in the pen, perhaps even in spring training. One reason it makes sense to bring in another veteran starter.
  4. drjim
    He was really good in AAA, I wouldn't argue otherwise. But I think it is clear that his command needed to be tightened up. What worked in AAA was exploited in the majors. This is not uncommon. I'm not opposed to him starting in the rotation and working it out in the majors, but I think there is wisdom in keeping him down in AAA, give the other depth guys a shot, and clean it up before unleashing him. When I say "dominate in spring training" I am talking not necessarily about numbers, those don't mean much, but about showing that he has improved this weakness in his pitching. If he does that, he'll probably earn a spot in the opening day rotation. But he shouldn't be Plan A.
  5. drjim
    On paper it will be even worse once they trade Dozier.
  6. drjim
    Spring training dominance would not just be numbers. And I don't necessarily agree he dominated AAA last year so much he has nothing left to do. His walks ticked up and that was his clear problem once he reached the majors. I don't especially care about Frank Viola's career arc.
  7. drjim
    There are certainly different standards for vets than guys trying to break in. Gibson and Santiago are easy in my mind, healthy and have made it through multiple seasons. Gibson at least has some upside and Santiago is a place holder who can stabalize the rotation a little, protect the bullpen, and possibly flip at the deadline (a perfect guy for a rebuilding team). I would like to give May another shot, and then leave the last spot open. Hughes would get the first crack if healthy based on track record. I think people generally underestimate how difficult it is for a young starter to crack a rotation day one and make it through the season. This is more to protect Berrios than anything. It's not like a rotation of Santana/Gibson/Santiago/May/Hughes (or other vet) is going to make all their starts. He'll get his chance really quick if he deserves it.
  8. drjim
    Come in and dominate in the spring, or dominate in AAA. It doesn't matter that much if he's there April 1 or May 1. He was bad last year, nothing wrong with easing him in, controlling his innings a little, giving him some confidence, put him in a position to succeed. If he blows everyone away in the spring, great, put him in and let's roll. But no way he should be Plan A right now. He showed nothing in the majors last year to earn that.
  9. drjim
    I would agree, but it just seems there is more steam on him with more competitive teams. I would be really happy if they targeted him.
  10. drjim
    Agree on the rotation. Even if Dozier is traded for De Leon, not sure what Berrios/De Leon/Duffey/Mejia have done to make people think they can take the ball on day one and make 30 starts. For a rebuilding team it makes even more sense to be patient with pitchers. I wouldn't be surprised if they sign or trade for another veteran starting pitcher depending on what they think about Hughes.
  11. drjim
    I approve. I'd personally like to see them add a veteran "closer". I think Holland will prove to be too expensive, but a guy like Casilla or possibly Feliz who is looking to re-establish some value and reclaim a role and is willing to take a one year deal to do it. Those are also the best guys to flip at the deadline. Shouldn't be in a hurry though, one of those guys will often slide to January or even February.
  12. drjim
    Yes. Though Kepler doesn't have the best arm, would probably be better in lf.
  13. drjim
    He could be a high level utility guy if not traded. Just don't think he'll be an everyday SS.
  14. drjim
    I do acknowledge the thread got a little hijacked and I apologize for my role, but I do find the conversation, when done civilly, is an interesting one. And there was something from the beginning that did inspire this direction.
  15. drjim
    Concur on that completely. This conversation can actually happen civilly.
  16. drjim
    I would personally differentiate between people who ignore/slam advanced stats out of hand and those who are either unclear, not up to speed, and/or skeptical of some amount stats. The first group I would look at, laugh a little, and then mostly ignore. Otherwise you are just banging your head against the wall. This strikes me as a very small part of this board, and baseball fandom in general, though is unfortunately kind of loud about it. The second group you might have something. Either an interesting conversation, a chance to educate, or perhaps even a chance to challenge your own thinking and learn something. While it is probably obvious, there are different degrees of accepting and application of advanced stats, even among the experts on teams. It is not a monolithic thing and there is no perfect stat. Part of the fun/interesting part for me is exploring all the stats and advanced metrics and trying to sort out what is good and useful, and what I find less so. It also feeds and challenges my more skeptical side. I find this type of conversation more interesting than becoming entrenched in an extreme and letting it fly.
  17. drjim
    I think there is value in better understanding what different projection systems for said prospects actually represent.
  18. drjim
    Posts like this make me realize that people are mostly talking past each other, and not even about the same thing.
  19. drjim
    The new take is the party is forced to punt the election and gear up hard again for 2020 in order to survive. I do think we'll see a legit religious conservative third party candidate. Too much space there. The business and national defense conservatives can probably stomach Hillary for a term.
  20. drjim
    I always thought it was more about the nebulous concept of replacement player, the unreliability of defensive metrics, the issues with converting (unreliable) defensive metrics into the same unit as offensive numbers for one all-encompassing number, and the fact that the two main sources of the stat don't agree with each other. But I'm sure precision is part of it too. And hatred of math.
  21. drjim
    I'm not sure about the second part. The issue is they don't think he can't stick at SS and they are pretty locked in at 2B and 3B. But if one of them gets hurt Polanco would be called up and play every day. I thought he was the guy to move for an elite bullpen arm, but that can still happen at the deadline. For now they have depth and a good chip to fill a hole once that materializes.
  22. drjim
    They did. And while I want to party to blow up, what I actually think will happen is that the party will let it roll, take the Presidential beating while trying to hold on to Congress, and try again in 4 years with a "better" candidate.
  23. drjim
    Only 88 wins? So pessimistic. How is the negativity police on board with that?
  24. drjim
    Christie likely did this because it helps Christie. But it is only the beginning, I think there might be a floodgate about to follow. If nothing else, this certainly changes the conversation away from a good debate from Rubio last night. One of my favorite parts has been seeing the reasonable and thoughtful conservatives melt down. You ride a beast long enough this is what eventually happens.
  25. drjim
    I think the other part of this is that people aren't necessarily against math as a tool, but perhaps skeptical of certain results. And implying things that certain outcomes represent "math" (or my favorite "the debate is settled") don't exactly help the conversation.
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