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drjim

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Everything posted by drjim

  1. drjim
    I was in favor last year of putting him in RF, but now I'm at the point that capturing defensive value is far less important than doing what it takes to get his bat going (though I don't buy the narrative that putting him in the OF had much impact on his hitting). Sano becoming a middle of the order force is one of the handful of things that must happen for the Twins to be a playoff contender in the next couple of years. Otherwise it is going to be a long time in the wilderness.
  2. drjim
    I respect this response and thought process and agree our goal should be 0 sexual assaults. The problem, though, and the crux of this specific debate, is that there is a significant part of the population that doesn't think what happened that night IS sexual assault or rape. It is especially dicey when the established legal system says it is not (or at least there is no way to prove that it is) but the school review says that it is and enacts harsh punishments, including on some who very likely did not take part. Sadly, perhaps tragically, there is a lot of gray in encounters like this. I had to work professionally for several years working through sexual assaults and despite lots of training I don't feel any better equipped now than I did before. I do think that if we want to stop sexual assault we have to be willing to explore all things that contribute.
  3. drjim
    No one is against adding as many prospects as possible, but I wouldn't trade Santana at this point for only the return suggested in that other post. This might be incorrect, but I am a believer that you don't get better on the mlb level by hoarding prospects at the lower level at the expense of mlb talent. I think there is talent on this team that needs to be nurtured a little this year, and having some success would be beneficial for the overall good of the franchise going forward. There is a lot of uncertainty in the rotation right now, so there is benefit in having a stabalizing force as other roles are filled in behind. If it sorts itself out at the deadline and the Twins are (as to be expected) not going to make the playoffs, then revisit a trade then. Moving Santana right now for fair-ish value doesn't do much for me.
  4. drjim
    Defense?
  5. drjim
    Yes, along with other sources. Mix youthful idiocy, alcohol, raging hormones, general depravity, and an inflated status in an enclosed community, and bad things happen. There is a long, all-encompassing strategy to combat this, and I really, truly believe that good progress has been made on many fronts, but sometimes people are just awful.
  6. drjim
    That would be good too.
  7. drjim
    I don't think anyone finds a number above 0 acceptable. But addressing the crisis, in my mind, requires an accurate understanding of what is happening. The CDC numbers also include attempts, plus they have been challenged in their own right and use shoddy methodology. Digging deeper into the study, the earlier suggestion of banning alcohol would do more to reduce rape and sexual assault than anything else by a significant margin.
  8. drjim
    40%?
  9. drjim
    He won't even be 18 by draft day, he's not going to have two plus pitches combined with necessary command to consistently get mlb hitters out when he's drafted. That's an almost unattainable standard for a pitcher out of the draft.
  10. drjim
    And who said anything about being satisfied? Some context is important. Failure to develop pitching is obviously the biggest failure of this franchise the past decade and the number one reason by far for sustained sucking. I generally think this is cyclical more than anything. A decade ago the Twins developed the best pitcher in baseball and backed him up with some decent guys. Been a disaster since.
  11. drjim
    I figured that definition covers an ace. Multiple years of high performance and 3.5 WAR is a good cutoff of slightly better than good Scott Baker. Yes on Cueto, scratch Cincinnati from the list. Might be one or two others, it was a quick thought experiment.
  12. drjim
    Other franchises go a decade without developing an ace (minimum 3.5 WAR for at least 3 seasons) all the time. Since Santana's time I came up with Arizona, Colorado, San Diego, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Kansas City, Baltimore, Yankees, Toronto, as franchises that didn't develop aces (FA signings exempted). This was the top of my head, I accept I could be missing some guys. It is not a Twins only problem, but also not surprisingly it includes other small and mid market teams that have struggled to have consistent success.
  13. drjim
    It would be fine to have those guys, but realistically there isn't an arm taken in the first round after Stewart that will really burn the Twins. Kohl Stewart still has a shot to be the best pitcher from the first round. Exception might be Manaea, but that was an understandable pass. Position players on the other hand...
  14. drjim
    If you take those 4 (and add Stewart and Mejia) and get 2 starters for more than 3-4 years, that would be a good outcome.
  15. drjim
    They have finally pushed some decent depth to the upper minors, but outside of Berrios they still strike me as 4ish types. Nothing wrong with that, but probably aren't going to get the elite starters they have been missing recently. And I still think Kohl Stewart as close to as much chance of mlb success as everyone else mentioned here.
  16. drjim
    They have Latino pitching coaches in the minors. I don't think that's the problem. There were potential red flags with Berrios in the minors that were exposed in the majors. Probably the reason he wasn't promoted quite as quickly as some wanted him to be. Key will be whether he can make the adjustments.
  17. drjim
    I'm just not convinced it was unwittingly playing moneyball. I tend to give them the benefit of the doubt that they knew what they were doing. I do think they were slow to change to the new realities of baseball, and they did fall behind in talent acquisition and development, and they were flat out unlucky with some their moves and prospects. They combination of these three things led to the current dire situation. I really appreciate your second point. I've been kicking this idea around a little bit myself. The Twins certainly needed an upgrade in statistical analysis, seen mostly in just enhanced capabilities in both staff and systems. But as every team is basically on the same level, it will be interesting to see where the new advantages will emerge. I suspect the slight advantages will be captured outside the metrics, from specific types of scouting, development protocols and relationships. There is certainly some work being done in more advanced physics (spin rate, etc) and injury prevention, remains to be seen if it makes any difference. But mostly I think it will be from good fortune (where talent develops and/or plays beyond expectations) and competitive cycles that will more or less track market sizes. All that to say, based on the original topic, that I'm not convinced the Twins have done much better or worse than what would be expected, considering their draft positions.
  18. drjim
    I thought the new conventional wisdom was that the x of xfip was pretty meaningless. I don't have much opinion on siera, haven't engaged it as much.
  19. drjim
    True, but fip fluctuates quite a bit year by year for pitchers too. It might be slightly more predictive and stable than era, but doesn't really tell us a ton either of what to expect the next season.
  20. drjim
    I find it quite disingenuous to say they took advantage of a market inefficiency based solely on luck. I'm willing to give them a little bit more credit. The weaknesses of the front office were in other areas, not in misunderstanding what makes good baseball teams.
  21. drjim
    No stat truly or perfectly judges how a pitcher did. Even fip is just a number gleaned from three inputs. Important inputs to be sure, but not the be all end all either. I always think of era as being the quickest measure of what happened in the most basic currency (outs and runs), and fip being the quick and dirty measure of what could have happened and may happen in the future based on underlying talent of the pitcher.
  22. drjim
    Of course it wouldn't be talked about it if it weren't players on the football team. There are probably situations like this often on campuses that we never hear about.
  23. drjim
    I agree with this. Santana is on a reasonable contract, has expectations of performance, is not necessarily at peak value, and the team as a big need for what he can provide, at least for the first half of the season. If he was a free agent this contract would be a great signing for them. A 75ish prospect arm is nice but really doesn't move the needle enough.
  24. drjim
    Agree with this. Twins don't have to trade Dozier for less than they think he's worth, but their leverage is almost certainly not getting better. There is a reason the expected return is pretty consistent across the national people. My personal speculation is they are close, which is why we aren't hearing much.
  25. drjim
    Personally, considering the makeup of the EOAA office, I would want to make sure a man is on the panel.
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