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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Personally, I think Joe is a Hall of Famer right now. He spent 10 years as a catcher. 2 of which were wrecked by injury (half a season or less...I'm fudging 2011 in here since he played 82 games) and 2 others were cut short ('07 & '13) at about 110 games. And he was a great catcher. A hitting machine who was constantly on base, played excellent defense and deserved the MVP. (and could have won a second one) he doubled the number of batting titles won by a catcher all by himself. The second half of his career hasn't been as wonderful, but that's concussions for you. And now Joe seems to be swinging his way back out of it. Pretty unusual for a guy to be able to reinvent themselves at a new position late in their career and be great at it, but Joe's done it becoming a terrific defensive player at what is a very different position. He should have gotten the Gold Glove last year (which probably would have changed some minds on his HoF case) Yes, the compilation stats are a little low for some people's taste, but let's project a little. Say Joe plays another 2 years after this, and stays healthy enough to play 130-140 games. That could easily add another 350-400 hits to his tally, and now he's a guy who spent half his career as one of the best catchers in the game and still ended with more hits than Carlton Fisk. Absent a sudden, catastrophic injury, he's going to pass Johnny Bench before the all-star break. He's on pace to pass Mike Piazza by the end of the year. A few more fun things with stats: Joe is current 6th among active player in times on base. The guys ahead of him? Pujols, Beltre, Ichiro, Cabrera, and Cano. All of them are going to be in the Hall, and none of them played catcher. Ernie Lombardi and Mickey Cochrane are both in the Hall, and deservedly so. Mauer was better than Lombardi, and very similar to Cochrane, who is frequently listed in the top ten all-time. Forget about the contract. Forget the Dan Barreiro's of the world meowing about home runs and RBI. revel in the greatness of Joe Mauer and the sweetest swing Twins fans have probably ever seen.
  2. jmlease1
    Berrios is becoming appointment viewing when he's on the mound. you really don't want to miss a start, because it might be something pretty special and almost certainly pretty fun to watch. That curve is filthy and he's spotting his fastball well. I'm really happy Mauer is off to a fast start and got his 2000 last night. He looks like he's playing free and easy and that swing as just as smooth as it's always been. Kinda back to being surprised when Mauer strikes out. Hope he keeps slashing singles and knocking doubles all over the field. Fun game, even with the replay delays and fails.
  3. jmlease1
    Kyle Gibson's Game Scores so far: 73, 45, 29. There's a reason I'm in "prove it" mode on Kyle Gibson this year. Right now he's in his old pattern of a really nice start followed by two not-so nice starts and that's just not good enough any longer.
  4. jmlease1
    Games like this are why I refuse to bet on Gibson this year.
  5. jmlease1
    Is it just me, or is PECOTA super-pessimistic on Twins INF? They're not bullish on anyone? That's weird to me. It will be interesting to see what Sano does this year. If the over/under on his slugging % was set at .500, I'd bet the over. The rest of his value? Dunno. But I think the power will end up being there.
  6. jmlease1
    I'm still not sold this isn't the same old Gibson; the command was bad no matter how many times Bert talked about being "effectively wild". A better teams makes him pay for those walks, I think. but who knows? Maybe me doubting him instead of advocating for it being his breakthrough year is all he needed to motivate him!
  7. jmlease1
    I'm not prepared to hand Gibson any awards yet. The control wasn't there and he was lucky to get through 6 innings against a team that really isn't all that good. A better team makes him pay for those walks. The K's were encouraging, but we need to see him string together some good outings in a row.
  8. jmlease1
    I've given up hope that Kyle "The Tease" Gibson will give us a consistent performance. I'd be thrilled if he would, but counting on him to be a consistent pitcher seems to be a fool's game at this point. Maybe he's finally found an approach that will work for him. Maybe he can stick to it without tinkering. Maybe. The best news on Gibson is he's gonna be the #5 guy in the rotation unless he proves he can do more, based on performance. I'm not getting suckered agin into thinking he's a solid #3 or so until he actually does it.
  9. jmlease1
    I like this 'pen. There's a lot of flexibility in it and some good upside. While I'm not a big Rodney fan, he's fine as a 9th inning specialist, which is an overrated position because of saves. Much better to be flexible with Reed in the 7-8th innings as needed to play fireman. Would love to see him punch out rallies in the 6th, frankly. Maybe pressly puts it together and performance equals stuff, but the Twins aren't going to be counting on him to pitch a lot of high-leverage situations until he proves it. Same with Kinley, because they have guys like Rogers, Reed, Duke, and Hildenberger who have shown they can handle it. Heck, gives time to test about Moya a little more before putting him in the fire. And there's definitely guys down in Rochester to fill in the gaps/seize a job if anyone falters/gets injured. That's great news. Rodney will get the bulk of the attention and aggravation, I suspect but a) closer is overrated, he's on a 1-year deal and can be walked away from if he's cooked, and c) there are replacements available in the 'pen and in the minors. That's the right situation to be in to start the season. Good combination of youth and experience. They're not elite (yet), but they are stronger and should be more reliable.
  10. jmlease1
    I'm a little nervous about the lack of INF depth on the 25-man, but otherwise looks like a solid enough roster. The regular lineup is strong and pitching staff looks much more reliable. There's real upside in the bullpen, but I wonder who gets pushed out when we need that 5th starter/Erv comes back. because if we need to carry 13 goddamn pitchers all year...we're still doing it wrong.
  11. jmlease1
    I think this lays it out. If Kepler gets it up to around 650 OPA vs LHP, then you don't have to automatically think about pulling him late when a tough lefty reliever comes in with the game in doubt in the 7th. Instead of a platoon, he's a guy that maybe gets his days off when the toughest lefties are starting, and you can carry a guy who isn't much defensively but rakes against LHPs because you don't have to put him out there for Kepler for every start. And if he gets into to a platoon situation this early in his career, he's never going to get out of it. If he keeps getting ABs against lefties the odds are good he'll improve, based on prior performance. I'm willing to be patient for a guy like Kepler. Just like I'm willing to be patient on Rosario with his strike zone judgement and patience at the plate. That's a skill that can grow with age and experience and if he can make incremental growth there he's going to be a heck of a hitter.
  12. jmlease1
    My problem with the FanGraph ratings is they're assuming last season was the correct assessment of Odorizzi and Lynn's ability/performance when projecting their likely performance this season, rather than accounting for their total track record. Additionally, I don't love the way fWAR handles pitching; it's a metric of what they're saying the pitcher should have produced based on their peripherals, rather than what they actually did. Now, Lance Lynn was probably lucky last season, considering the difference between his ERA and his FIP. But he was also coming off Tommy John and posted the worst FIP he'd ever had in the majors. So FanGraphs is projecting him to be basically that again using his career-worst FIP as the baseline but his career-average delta between his ERA and FIP as the measuring stick to get to his ERA? Ouch. That's a lot of regression to assume on a guy who is only 30. Additionally, they've assumed he'll only pitch 149 innings; since becoming a full-time starter he's never pitched less than 175. I get that they have to try to make some guessed on injury; there's no way a team gets through the year without guys missing some starts, but I can't say I love this guess. Why are they assuming Lynn throws 35 inning less than last season and Gibson 2? Odorizzi suffers in similar fashion; they're weighing last season awfully heavily on a guy who has had a solid enough track record and reportedly pitched hurt last year. Something else to consider: the difference between 16 and 21 is 1 WAR.
  13. jmlease1
    1996 was wonderful. 1997 was more typical Twins DH stuff: not really good enough to justify the slot. 1998 was a "you stuck around at least one year too long" season that no one remembers because he's a Hall of Famer.
  14. jmlease1
    It certainly looks like a rotation built less on hopes and prayers and more on talent and track record. Kyle "the Tease" Gibson still makes me nervous, but I like him a lot better as a 4th or 5th starter who has to pitch to keep his job than someone who gets handed the 3rd slot because the options they are awful. Ervin Santana isn't an "ace", but he can lead a staff. I think people tend to conflate the idea of #1 starter vs "ace" a little bit. If a guy is in the top 20 in pitching WAR among starters...isn't that a #1? If they do it a couple of years in a row, the only reason to call them a #2 is because they're not considered an "ace", the dominant starter who automatically gets looked at for the Cy. Twins will miss him the first month, but hopefully the extra time off the mound means he stays good through the whole year. Berrios has the pitches to dominate and should be a fine #2. I expect him to take another step forward this year. Lynn is a guy who has consistently put up results that would make him a fine #2 on most staffs as well; His last 3 healthy seasons have resulted in a bWAR over 3. That's the sort of performance that makes you one of the top 40 starters in baseball...sounds like a #2, doesn't it? I'm a little nervous about the transition to the AL; some guys don't handle it well. And there's no doubt he was lucky last year, but getting another year past the surgery should compensate for the luck returning to normal. Odorizzi certainly has put up good enough results in the past to be a fine #2/3 for most MLB teams; last season was his first bad one since becoming a full-time starter in the bigs and reportedly he had some nagging injury issues that limited his effectiveness. He may be the poster child for "shut it down and get healthy" rather than "battle through it", but time will tell. He finished well and if he pitches like he did in 2015 or 2016, we're going to be thrilled. That's a much better track record to ride with as your #3 guy than we've been looking at. I don't trust Gibson, but as the #4? I'm much happier than when we were hoping he'd be the #2 or #3 starter! prove me wrong, Tease. Give me the consistency we're dying for.
  15. jmlease1
    DH has generally been an afterthought for the Twins over the years, so it's nice to see the team grab someone like Morrison who isn't on the tail end of his career. Way too many years of guys like Ryan Doumit, Rondell White, Jose Offerman, or Robbie Grossman and the last gasps of Dave Winfield, Paul Molitor, and Roy Smalley. Bad sign when an OPS+ of 115 or so counts as a "good" MN DH season.
  16. jmlease1
    I can live with him being the 5th guy to start the season. One last chance to see if he can go as a starter, then he moves to the bullpen and if that doesn't fly he's done. (cut or retire, I suspect) Who knows? maybe he'll get enough back to be ok.
  17. jmlease1
    I'm one of the ones who wonders if Rosario and Kepler should do a position swap; there's a lot of room in LF and the bigger arm plays better in RF, traditionally. but kepler has the tools to stick wherever. I think he's the player to watch this season for a breakout. It might not come together because the LHP he's facing in MLB are the best of the best, but I think he's going to do better this season, assuming he gets enough reps. I'm a Kepler guy. I want him in our OF for a long time.
  18. jmlease1
    wow, people are being very harsh on Polanco. Expectations really have increased for this team! I'm not saying he doesn't deserve criticism, but people are ready to toss him to the curb. He screwed up, badly. But there's a real possibility he's not lying and his real mistake was trusting the wrong people and not having a system in place to crosscheck his supplements in a way that kept him safe. That's still a bad mistake for a professional athlete to make, but even in this testing regime there are still a lot of guys who are not being all that careful with what they're taking. Hopefully this is a warning to all young players. regardless: he's paying a huge price and so is his team. It's a real shame.
  19. jmlease1
    CF is looking pretty solid right now. At some point going after a high ceiling prospect off an international signing or high draft pick will be a good idea to start the pipeline going again, but right now the position looks to be in great hands. It will be interesting to see how Granite responds this season. He's probably not going to crack the Opening Day roster, but he's going to be the first call to fill in the OF. It will be interesting to see if he can handle the uncertainty and if he can build on last year's success in the minors to find consistency in the majors. It would be wonderful to have a high average hitter who can be a defensive asset off the bench.
  20. jmlease1
    I really hope last season was the start of Rosario's path and not a fluke season. If he can make modest gains on patience while keeping the power he's really going to be a nice hitter. His defense baffles me a bit; he's got the tools to be at least an average defender out there, but he seems to be getting worse. I have to wonder if he might be better off in RF where he'd have to cover less room and his arm would still play very very well. Either way, Eddie Rosario is a very important part of the twins this season and for the next few years. But the depth at OF in the system is pretty good too. Grossman can cover for some reps (he's bad defensively too, but we can survive it), Granite has real potential as a 4th OF and I'm very excited to see what Kiriloff will do this year.
  21. jmlease1
    1. I sure hope so 2. Slim chance, unless he really starts killing it with the bat and Grossman falls apart and forgets how to take walks. 3. Yes. He's ahead of Pressly, Busenitz, Kinley, Moya, and Duffey at this point. Absent injury, he's in. I hope the Twins can work out a small deal to keep Kinley around if they want him, because I don't see room for him on the 25-man right now. The control just isn't there and you can't take up a roster spot with a guy you can't use on a contending team. When the Twins were losing 100 games? Sure, go ahead. Not now. I don't see any chance for LaMarre or Vargas to make this squad. Vargas is auditioning for a trade/release, and his trade value is piss-poor because everyone in MLB knows the Twins aren't keeping him. Rogers and Hildenberger were near locks before spring training started and there's nothing to suggest their stock has faded even a little. Pressly should probably be made to sweat a little because the performance hasn't lived up to the stuff, but the Twins seem committed, so why pretend he's fighting for a job against Busenitz or Duffey?
  22. jmlease1
    I think any time someone gets hyped as a first-ballot HoF it's going to fade back a little, because generally those sorts of comparisons are stupid. Royce Lewis still looks like a potential star. His bat is already looking great for his age and he definitely has the tools to stick at SS. I think a lot of scouts like to make statements like "I see his long term position being elsewhere" when talking about a player because it sure makes it sound like that scout knows something extra. Lewis needs reps at SS. I think he'll be just fine and will rise quickly because of his bat. He seems to have the work ethic and drive and to master the defensive side as well. For all that Gordon's standing seems to be falling in the eyes of some, he sure seems to be performing ok. He's still got work to do defensively and had a bad slump last year, but still finished with a solid season at a new level. Did I mention he's never repeated a level, despite being drafted at 18? He's always been 2-3 years younger than the average where he's been playing, and keeps having success. That's a nice track to be on. Long-term does he end up at 2B? probably, but part of that reason is because Royce Lewis will take it away from him, not necessarily because he can't hack it.
  23. jmlease1
    He needs to repeat 2017 to have a shot at coming back, I think. second real factor is the dollar amounts. If he's willing to play on a 2/$12M deal or something like that, I think the Twins find room for him if he can still produce at least at a 2017 level, regardless of what Morrison does, or Sano's ability to stick at 3B. If he wants $10-15M...then he'll have to find it elsewhere (which he won't, I suspect, even if he repeats 2017 production). If the production slips back again to 2016 or (gah) 2015 levels, the Twins will move on. Frankly, I suspect if Joe has a season anywhere like 2014-2016 he'll strongly consider retiring. He strikes me as the sort of guy who won't stick around if he can't produce. It might create a little roster crunch and some issues where the ABs don't string out as perfectly as you'd like, but Joe Mauer was a valuable baseball player last season. If he stays a valuable player and the money doesn't get silly...you look for a way to keep him. (not having to go with a 12-13 man pitching staff at all times would help)
  24. jmlease1
    I'm a little concerned that there's not another prospect that could be ready to step in at 3B in the next two years. Because I think it's fair to be concerned about Sano's ability to stick at the position or in the organization and Escobar isn't a young guy any longer. People are worried about organizational depth at catcher; I'm worried about it at 3B. Right now, none of the middle infield prospects we have starting to claw their way up the ranks look like contenders to shift over there, and our best prospect looks to be a) several years away, and hardly a sure thing. (I'm rooting like hell for Blankenhorn, but he's got some things to work on) For this season, we're in excellent shape. Next year? Two years from now? the poundage isn't the only weight resting on Sano.
  25. jmlease1
    I dont think it's unusual to have these hiccups in a system where you dont have the smooth pipeline at every position. I'd love to have the next version of Mitch Garver be coming off some solid time at AA and being seriously considered for promotion to AAA, but there's always a few hiccups there. Castro is set to start, Garver looks ready to be the number #1 backup and get some extra ABs against LHPs. Twins are betting that if Castro goes down for a short period of time that Garver can step up and handle it, and that's not an unreasonable bet. Lets be honest: how great is the catching depth in MLB? I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins comb the waiver wire coming out of Spring Training to shore up a little AAA depth, which is probably the right choice. I'm intrigued by Rortvedt and it'd be ideal if hes starting to press his way up the system by the time Castro's contract is up and they can swing him onto the roster the same way they are bringing Garver along.
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