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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Spring Training is all about the pitching staff for this club. Figuring out the rotation, settling roles in the bullpen, and working out whether or not this team can survive the first month with only 12 pitchers. I have to assume they're going to either make a trade or sign someone for the rotation. There's just no way we can start the season with it being Berrios, Meija, Gibson, May, and Duffey (or any of the minor league guys filling out the back end.) we'd need 14 pitchers, minimum, to stay afloat until Ervin comes back because none of those guys has shown consistent ability to go late in games. (I just can't trust Gibson any longer. I promoted him for the last two spring trainings as a guy ready to take the leap forward and he's crushed my hopes every time with his secret identity as The Tease. Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action. Not letting it happen to me again!) I feel better about the bullpen than I have in a while; the combination of MLB-ready prospects, guys returning from injury, and veteran reinforcements makes me think we might be solid out the gate instead of floundering. The lineup is good to go: Garver slots in at backup catcher and helps gives some guys a day off if he shows he can hit enough. I'd like to see Granite as a 4th OF, but I'm not sure he's going to hit enough. but he'd make a great late-game defensive replacement and let Buxton get some days off.
  2. jmlease1
    Wow, that 2017 draft has the potential to be pretty outstanding. Hard not to like Rooker at this point, and it would be great if he's able to move aggressively through the system. I'd like to see him cut down the K's too; I get that it's considered acceptable with his power production, but it'd be nice for someone with his apparent batting eye to make a little more contact too. I think he probably starts the year in Ft. Myers and moves up quickly. How he responds to facing AA pitching is going to say a lot, and whether or not he can start handling the really explosive breaking stuff along with guys who are starting to learn how to pitch, not just dominate through sheer stuff. I loved this pick when we made it, and the early returns are right where you'd hope they'd be.
  3. jmlease1
    young pitchers in the low minors like this are kind of like lottery tickets, aren't they? So many things need to happen with this kid before we really know anything. The 100 mph fastball and slider potential are tantalizing, and it's great to have a prospect like this...but I wouldn't rank him so high. Not for a pitcher at his age, experience level, and with his injury history. The potential is sky high, but so is the bust factor.
  4. jmlease1
    If Thorpe stays healthy for a full season this ranking will look low in retrospect, but his history makes this the right sort of spot for him. I want to believe, and I'm really rooting for him but injury history can be hard. This will be Garver's last year on a prospect list, since he's almost certainly going to graduate to the big club. Let's hope his cup of coffee helped him acclimate and a defined and consistent role helps him get off to a good start. If he gets 200 ABs this year and can out-hit Gimenez, that will be a nice result. Littell is interesting. The performance has been impressive. He's pitched in 5 different leagues in 2 years and done well in all of them. Control slipped a little when he came to the MN system, but that could be SSS, it could be league adjustment, trade adjustment...who knows? Rochester seems like the right place for him to start, and if he keeps mowing his way through lineups, you have to think he could be a factor in the rotation in the second half of the year. Maybe he's going to be one of those guys who gets just enough Ks, doesn't give up the HRs, doesn't walk too many guys, doesn't get hit real hard and just chews through unspectacular outings time after time. It will be interesting to see if he can get deep into games consistently; he still doesn't have a ton of innings.
  5. jmlease1
    I think this is about right for Rortvedt; let's see how he progresses with the bat this season. If he can hit like the second half over the course of a full season, I'll be very encouraged. I think the team can afford to show some patience with him, and he looks like a C+ range prospect (to use a sickels grade) that could easily get himself into B range territory with only modest improvement at the plate. I might have ranked Jay a little higher, because he should progress quickly now that he's back in a bullpen role but this seems fine. I was hoping he could transition to a starting role because I also thought he had the pitches to do it, but it's time to move on. I wonder: will his brief time working as a starter help him function in a multi-inning capacity in the bullpen? Wouldn't it be wonderful if he became the sort of pitcher who could come in as a fireman in the 5th-6th inning and finish off 1-2 batters and then still stay hot to go in the 6th-7th? Clearly his drop has more to do with the change in role and the injury history than his ability, so seeing him fall so far on the prospect chart doesn't bother me as much.
  6. jmlease1
    I like doing it this way better than just a straight list of top 15/25, although it gets weird if a team is especially strong at one position over the years...but that's part of the fun! I'm also very comfortable with cheating a little by sticking the Killer at DH, even though he never played it as a Twin. I'd have to take Gaetti over Koskie (longevity does matter), and I agree: LF has not been a position of strength for the Twins. That said, I'd take Bob Allison for the spot over Mack; Shane just didn't spend enough time in MN or in LF, really. And Bob Allison was really, really good. Zoilo vs Smalley at SS is a hard one, but Zoilo probably didn't have enough good seasons (I dunno if I can give extra credit to Smalley for his last three seasons, since a) he barely played short and didn't hit well enough to justify being a full time DH, though). Also, calling Gaetti "Punto before Nick Punto" is a pretty big insult to Gary Gaetti. Torii definitely makes my bench as a 4th OF and with this pitching staff I don't think you need more than a 5 man bullpen, so live a little and roll out a bench with: Knoblauch & Zorro to hold down the INF, Battey as the back C, Torii laughingly complaining about not getting to play enough as the 4th OF, and let Koskie and Morneau fight it out for the last slot. (think Justin lets Corey have it if you tell him he's got to back up Gaetti at 3B?) Regarding the rotation: I'd give Bert the top slot (he didn't get Johan's hardware, but he was just as dominant in his first stint with the Twins as Johan was in his years and had a nice coda for the championship run in '87 where he was still a very fine pitcher) and slide Frankie V into the 3rd slot over Kaat. Kitty pitched forever, but he was never a dominant pitcher with the Twins and Sweet Music absolutely was. I'd consider Perry over Pascual, but either is a fine choice for the last slot. I suppose it depends on if you give a little extra credit to Pascual for the Senators years.
  7. jmlease1
    Sandlot. TK at the end is just the best.
  8. jmlease1
    Rob Neyer wrote a very fun book that looks at exactly this topic, <a href=http://robneyer.com/baseball-books/big-book-of-baseball-lineups/>The Big Book of Baseball Lineups</a> and I highly recommend it to any baseball fan. It's a bit dated now, but part of the fun today is thinking about how many recent players would seize a spot from someone else.
  9. jmlease1
    Cody said right before he wrote up his list: "The list below is limited to players whose seasonal ages for 2018 are 24 or younger—that is, any player who will not yet have turned 25 on July 1, 2018. Players like Miguel Sano and Max Kepler don’t qualify because they will turn 25 before July 1st." Not an oversight, not an omission: it was a decision based on how he set up the rules. Gordon has a super high floor for a prospect. Where his ceiling end up is yet to be determined. I feel very good about Royce Lewis so far.
  10. jmlease1
    Very respectable list. I'm guessing it was hard to leave Gary Gaetti off (almost identical bWAR as Torii)? They're so close in value and both were really impactful Twins. Does recency bias give Torii an edge? (fWAR thinks the Rat was a better Twin! hee.) Jim Perry vs Frankie V...that's a pretty tough one too. The bWAR is close there too; Viola had bigger seasons, Perry did it for longer as a Twin. I probably take Sweet Music too, but it's a fun discussion. (fWAR likes Viola a little more than Perry as a twin too)
  11. jmlease1
    I think this is the point for the Commissioner and others concerned about pace of play and length of games. They're looking ahead to the next tv contract, and thinking about their ratings for playoff and world series baseball. They're thinking about how much of the revenue increase was predicated around teams forming their own tv networks or getting large deals from regional sports networks (like FSN). It's not just about attendance or participation, it's also about tv contracts and ratings. but I think it's fair to be concerned that attendance will start to slide if games drag out longer and longer without good reason. They also don't want people bailing early. The ticket sale is huge, but if people bail after 6 innings, that's a lot of lost concession sales too. And the goodwill slides down too: when was the last time someone spoke glowingly about the game and the fan experience when they had to bail early?
  12. jmlease1
    Questionable assertion. http://www.engagesports.com/blog/post/1488/youth-sports-participation-statistics-and-trends Baseball hasn't been number #1 or #2 in some time; while it's unlikely to keep falling down the charts any time soon, the participation numbers are declining like a lot of youth sports. It's easier than ever to see a baseball game on tv...and harder to carve out enough time to do it. The fan experience at a professional baseball game is one of the better ones in professional sports...but time makes it harder to bring kids to the game. (Think about how many parents leave in the 6th or 7th inning when they have kids, because it's already 9:30pm and if they stay to the end it's after 10 and will take another 435 minutes to get out of the parking garage) the relief epidemic is getting to be problematic, and I'd have no problem with mandating a reliever face more than 1 batter (3 sounds like it might be a sweet spot). rosters with 13 pitchers, constant pitching changes and delays, starters being considered quality for hacking their way through 5 innings these sorts of things impact the integrity of the game in their own way too. A pitch clock would be great. Meditating on the mound and running through 7 sets of signs while contemplating the mysteries of the universe before throwing the ball doesn't help baseball. (what are they doing, reciting tug McGraw's "frozen ice-ball" theory in their heads before each pitch?) batters stepping out of the box to re-adjust 14 straps on various equipment their wearing so they can dip their elbows into the strike zone without fear of getting hit by a pitch don't help either. I swear, I miss Mark Buehrle just for how fast he kept a game moving.
  13. jmlease1
    I'd say we sold high on him once, not really looking to bring him back. He's not as good as Escobar in the INF, he really shouldn't play OF, and I have trouble believing he'll hit as well as he did in Boston last year (he had his best hitting season as a pro at age 30, seems like a prime candidate for regression). If we didn't have Escobar, I'd be interested, but they're similar players who fill a similar niche so I'd rather keep the younger switch-hitter and I don't see room for both on the roster.
  14. jmlease1
    I think we have a significant roster crunch for the position players that makes this a challenge. I'd love to have a reliable RH power bat on the bench, but right now I'm not sure they'll carry one. It feels like Grossman has a spot fairly well locked down (should he? might be another question) as the primary DH who will get a few starts in the OF. Adrianza and Escobar look to have two bench spots secured, and they're both useful players. Garver certainly has the lead at backup catcher. If we carry 13 freakin' pitchers...there's no spots left. So unless we commit to 13 position players (which I would prefer), the choice is more like Grossman vs Vargas vs Free Agent X. (I don't see Granite getting a spot absent injury if we only carry 12 position players)
  15. jmlease1
    yeah, I'm not exactly going to be sad if Gonsalves ceiling is Seattle-era Jamie Moyer...and David Wells was a damn tough pitcher for a long time whose deception didn't rely on an elite slider or curve. We won't really know until Gonsalves has an extended run at MLB, I think. Looking forward to seeing it. (also? david Wells is listed at 183lbs at B-ref. BWAH!)
  16. jmlease1
    Under this formulation: Darvish. Neither Lynn nor Cobb are top-end guys and while they might provide more consistency in the rotation than what we have now (I've been clear on this site that I don't trust The Tease, aka Kyle Gibson and Hughes may never start a game again) but I'm still more worried about quality than quantity. With potential decline a real possibility for Santana, adding a horse like Darvish is even more optimal. A rotation of Darvish, Berrios, Santana, Meija, and Gibson (with Gonsalves and other pushing the back end guys hard, possibly even taking their jobs) is much more appealing than Berrios, Santana, Cobb, Lynn, and Meija/Gibson. And considering the roster crunch we're facing, adding extra guys that really don't substantially increase the quality level hurts us in other ways.
  17. jmlease1
    Kinley is competing for 1 or maybe 2 spots. If he shows he's got the control to pitch in higher leverage spots, he could make it. If he doesn't he's going to be offered back. The stuff is there. he's a power arm with for real stuff, but if he can't get the control down he won't make this roster.
  18. jmlease1
    I think one that's missing here is a slow start for one of our three young, but no longer rookie outfielders. There's basically a 99.5% chance that our planned starting OF alignment is Rosario-Buxton-Kepler and if one or more of them struggles to find a groove out the gate it's going to be a problem for this offense...and right now the options behind them are: Zack Granite (fairly untested, did not hit much in limited action last season, and might have to start the season in AAA), Robbie Grossman (an abysmal defender), Mitch Garver (who had half the ABs of Granite and would be playing out of position), and Eduardo Escobar (who should stay in the INF). A prolonged slump by any of the starters would be concerning, especially since I don't seeing anyone exactly hammering on the door to take their jobs. Of Nick's 5, I'm most worried about Erv's decline, just because it would hurt so much. Some pitchers have a slow, gradual decline, others fall off the cliff. If it's the former, we'll be ok; if it's the latter we're in a lot of trouble. I'm not terribly concerned about the closer role. I think we have a number of reasonable options to fill it if Rodney falters, and I think we'll be able to get by with Rodney as the guy who comes in to pitch the 9th. It's also the contract that seems the easiest to move on from if it doesn't work. that's the one off the list I'm least worried about.
  19. jmlease1
    hell, I'd like a rule mandating a pitcher must face at least 3 batters, barring injury. the many many pitching changes gets very old.
  20. jmlease1
    I've completely given up on hoping that The Tease (Kyle Gibson) will take the long-hoped for "step forward". I've been burned too many times. I'd love for it to happen, I'm rooting for him...but I expect nothing other than being a back of the rotation innings eater at this point. Kepler and Berrios are both good choices. It's so hard to tell with relievers, but Rogers is a guy I'll be watching this year. I'd consider Granite, but I don't know if he makes the roster at the start of the season, absent a trade of Grossman. (there's a real possibility we'll start the season with a 3-man bench and 13 goddamn pitchers, so there's going to be a huge roster crunch for position guys)
  21. jmlease1
    Well, he only got 10 outings there last season...and I'm trying to recall one that he got in the second half of the season and I'm struggling with it. Kepler got more run out there in CF than Eddie and I suspect Eddie's going to be an emergency option only going forward. (especially if Granite cracks the 25-man)
  22. jmlease1
    I'd be interested to see how much things like sprint speed fluctuate from year to year, but it's something that should be a little concerning. Unless Rosario starts taking better routes to the ball and tracking things better, a loss of high-end speed will end up hurting him. Here's a question: would he be better off in RF? He's got the arm to play out there effectively and as I recall the alignment at Target Field makes LF a bigger space to cover than RF. Much as I like Kepler in RF, we may have to consider flip-flopping those two if Rosario can't get his giddyup back in gear. If Rosario can make an incremental improvement on last year's offense while getting back some of his defensive value, he's going to be a real asset. If he slides back further on D or starts swinging at anything thrown in the vicinity of 1st Ave again, he's not going to have a lengthy career.
  23. jmlease1
    I think there's more than a small possibility that Hughes starts the season on the DL, and then needs rehab time in the minors to get himself into pitching shape. I love Chargois, but he's got to prove that he's healthy and I'm not betting on him at the start of the season either. I'm not even a little worried about Kinley; we're at a point where a Rule V guy has to show they can contribute or we won't hold a roster spot for them and if he goes I'm not shedding any tears. the heat loss in missing on a Rule V pick is pretty low. Rodney's contract is one where if he's not pitching well we can dump him and roll with a different guy from Rochester and I think that's healthy. And as much as i hate it, there's a better than even chance we come north with an 8-man 'pen. Rodney Reed Duke Hildenburger Rogers Pressly (who has earned the skepticism) Duffey Busenitz That looks like the first cut. May is going to be tossed in the starter pool (good!). Enns, Kinley, Curtiss, and Moya are fighting for spots. Moya has options, and has never pitched at AAA; he starts there unless Duke or Rogers falters/gets hurt and we need another lefty. Duffey could get dealt (he's exactly the sort of pitcher who gets thrown into a deal so that a team isn't getting all prospects for a legit MLB player/star) but otherwise he's potentially the swingman in the bullpen and needs to fight off Enns or Kinley. Curtiss is going to push Pressly. Those are my guesses right now. Regardless, there's a lot more depth than there was and Reed sure looks like the impact bullpen arm people were complaining the twins weren't gonna sign.
  24. jmlease1
    Mauer's seems like a fine baserunner, but he doesn't steal bases and grounds into plenty of DPs, so I'm not surprised to see him with a bottom 5 sort of number...but looking at some of the other 1Bs around the league Fan Graphs basically just thinks he stinks at it. That's a surprise; I figured his issues would be around the no SBs and the GIDPs, but he's not that different from a number of other guys at his position in that regard. Not a surprise to see Buxton rank so well; he's electric out there and it's a delight to watch. I almost don't want him slugging HRs because it's so fun to see him on the bases. (swear to god, you could see fear in the eyes of LFs last year when he'd flip a single even a little bit towards the line knowing that he was fast enough to turn a routine single into a double if they didn't hustle after the ball)
  25. jmlease1
    I think it's fair for Gordon's second-half struggles to downgrade him some on the prospect lists, and for it not just to be a function of higher-upside prospects joining the organization/being recognized. He had an ok year; it started really well offensively and ended pretty badly. It's not an unusual occurrence for a prospect to hit a stumbling block when they start getting into the high minors, but while Gordon is young for his level (and has been at every stop) it's still a reasonable cause for concern. He also didn't do a lot to prove that he really can stick at SS at the major-league level, either. He didn't disqualify himself either, but taken in aggregate, last season is more of a "he justified the promotion" sort of season rather than a "he's ready to keep advancing" one. I'd like for him to repeat at AA and see how it goes. He's got some things to work on and repeating a level at his age is fine. he's still a prospect, but right now he's not showing enough to say "we can't deal him".
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