TheLeviathan
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Everything posted by TheLeviathan
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Part of the issue is that he was really good against a tough SF defense.....and then laid a miserable egg yesterday against a woeful defense. That's a major thing I was looking for in this game was for him to develop consistency. This was a step backward. To me the most pleasant surprise is that I thought the linebackers were going to be awful and they've been a really solid unit. I didn't see Brinkley becoming the kind of player he's looked like but damn the kid is playing the middle well so far.
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Because three weeks of ridiculousness versus four months of pretty sub-par play screams fluke. And flukes are poor justifications for projections which is why it's perfectly valid to think projecting this year forward is probably too optimistic. I'm not ruling out that he can hit 20+ home runs, but a 600-650 OPS third baseman who doesn't hit righties well isn't going to see the field enough to see that. And if his season next year looks more like April, May, August, and September than June - that's precisely what will happen. 10-15 I think is a much more reasonable hope considering just how buoyed his final numbers were by a stretch which any reasonable person would agree is unlikely to be sustainable or relied on. Even streaky hitters rarely do what he did for that couple week stretch and his numbers would look mighty unimpressive without that stretch.
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10-15 homeruns isn't supported by the above numbers but it is by a three week stretch? You're using the definition of a small sample size to buoy a season projection and then coupling that with trending minor league numbers? Yes, his play has gotten better but let's look at a few facts before we start projecting season-long numbers: Half his homeruns were hit during a period in which he OPS'd 400 points higher than his season total. He was over .700 OPS only two out of six months of the season. His K:BB ratio is 3:1. What you are citing is driven by a fluke. I want him to get a shot and to see if the injury was his problem or if he really is just a middling .650 OPS player who strikes out too much. Projecting based on small sample sized flukes should be beneath any serious argument.
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I really don't think that's the issue - Harvin is a true force. The issue is under center. Ponder was really jumpy and consistently had more time than he seemed to think he had. Overall, for playing a defense that Locker lit up last week this was not an impressive showing in the air. Again, they're winning in ways that can be maintained, but to think they are anything special with as bad as this passing game has been for the better part of three of the four games this season is a bit too optimistic for me.
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Jesus....this team is 3-1? Wow...Ponder looked awful, but they got it done!
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What kab is saying is that 3/30 is the pitching equivalent of the Willingham contract - not small, but not a huge deal either. I would venture to bet that what the Twins will do is hope to have another offseason like Burton, Fien, Willingham, and Doumit. I just give them very low odds of being successful with that a second time. -
There is also a far better chance he is a .700 OPS player with 10-15 homeruns. It's encouraging the way he hit homeruns, but Plouffe's 2012 is a brilliantly obvious example of SSS to be making future projections.
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I would suggest that his last 5-6 years of baseball are probably more indicative than one ridiculous three week stretch. Defensively he's played better than expected though, no reason not to let him try next year.
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Wall Street Journal: How biased are your announcers?
TheLeviathan replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
That said, it did conclude with the proper findings, unbalanced as the results may be. Even as obnoxious as Paul Allen is (and good god, the english language is in desperate need of devising a new term to more properly encapsulate the manner in which he makes me want to hurt small, cute animals every time I hear his voice) he has little on Hawk. -
Article: Where Does Carroll Fit In?
TheLeviathan replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
And yet feels oh so inevitable. -
Liriano struggled today in big game for the Sox
TheLeviathan replied to nokomismod's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
3 years and 30M. Duh. He's an ace, lest you forget. -
Wall Street Journal: How biased are your announcers?
TheLeviathan replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Quadruple the rate of anyone else? Yup, this study sounds like a pretty accurate assessment to me. -
It's hard to have it against your chest when Tate's arm is on your chest. But yes, the push off was far more criminal. Reality is, I've seen FAR worse examples of co-possession awarded to offenses than that play. It's just one of many rules that the NFL gives far too much deference to the offense on. And I'm not so sure it would've been ruled differently by the regular refs.
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It's not a backhanded compliment - it's reality. Stinking for three quarters against the pitiful Colts defense is every bit as big a problem as his success against San Fran was a positive. He's played one good game - which is pretty much as many as he played last year too. The lack of turnovers is definitely a plus, but this team should have been 0-2 in large part because of his poor play the first two games. I'll wait until he's had at least another 49er game before getting too excited.
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Quite frankly, I don't think the call to end last night's game was nearly as controversial as it is being made out. I think it's emotional hyperbole, when you really look at that play it's a much tougher call than people are saying. Consider: Tate's left arm was under and over the ball at the same time Jennings got both hands on it. Tate's right arm encircled his left before Jennings even pulled the ball to his chest, much less had a foot down. I think it could have gone either way and we'd be seeing this reaction, but for whatever reason, no one seems to acknowledge the NFL rulebook on this or what Tate did. Everyone jumps to the idea that Jennings "had it first" which isn't nearly as obvious as people think. He got two hands on it first, but that doesn't equate with possession. Just my two cents on it, I realize I'm in the vast minority, but that's from actually watching the play and not getting so pent up about it right away. I think the announcers initial reactions are coloring a lot of reactions personally.
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Ponder has been better, but let's face it - most of his production the first two weeks were when the defenses backed off. The Niners game was much more impressive all around for him though.
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Touche
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I'd be a fan of Scoscia for the looser running game alone. For whatever reason Gardy teams have never run as often as I think they could and should. Scoscia loves to move baserunners.
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Read this and was both amused and baffled. If you're a pirates fan you have to be embarrassed.
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Article: The Hammer Pounds Again
TheLeviathan replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Allow me to rekindle - any idea but trading Willingham at this value is a mistake. -
Hard to be a Republican when you support pro-choice leg., anti-education privitization, pro-gay marriage, pro some tax increases, etc. Hell, I'm probably more liberal in my actual views - I just can't stand the phony, obnoxious, shallow thought behind most liberal policy.
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Are the Twins calling up Herrmann?
TheLeviathan replied to gunnarthor's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Again, the logic that the 25th man on the roster doesn't matter is an incredibly slippery slope. The team should want every player on their roster to be the best they can reasonably field. Given how historically awful Butera has been, it shouldn't be controversial to ask the team to improve that area. -
Then you're listening to what is being said in response and not what is actually being said. I'm not defending Romney - I'm disagreeing with the scope of the interpretation.
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That he's pitching at all should be encouraging, much less the results. We just can't count on him for next year, but he's an intriguing "bonus" possibility.
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- Except, that is precisely what he said. Well, "If you have a business....you didn't build that" is slightly different - if you want to quibble about that let me know and I'll stop taking you seriously. Now I understand his point and I don't completely disagree with him. There is no selective editing here - he went too far with a point and came off insultingly. He took his party mantra too far and it sounds badly. They are very much the same issue. I don't think either argument is crippling, but both are indicative of the stupidity that reigns on both sides.
