TheLeviathan
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Everything posted by TheLeviathan
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And that's why no one should write off Trump. Democrats scramble every election to get their base out to the polls, but in rural and remote areas - people show up come snow, sleet, or hail. And many, many of those voters are voting Trump this year and they won't show up in a lot of polling. But they'll show up at the polls.
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I have a hard time saying we are on the upswing until two things are sorted out: 1) The young should be superstars: Fix Buxton and figure out where Sano plays 2) Competent pitching - we're goign to need a helluva lot more of it before we are officially on the upswing It's nice seeing some guys like Kepler, Vargas, Rosario, Berrios, and others showing signs of growth. But there are a lot of unanswered questions and still a sizable chunk of the season to play. -
I really hope they spend the next few weeks rebuilding his approach. This better be more than a "you were just the guy that made sense" move. Get to work on fixing this kid. Now. Yesterday.
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I'm amazed Smerf when I hear most political commentators talk about issues like this. I get it, the majority of the population is centered in the major metro areas. But there is absolutely no concept for what huge swaths of this country are like. Why, for example, school vouchers are a preposterous idea for about 90% of the land area of Minnesota. Or how so many towns rely on one or two employers to basically keep their town alive. Why would poor, white, rural Americans side with Democrats when they so openly despise them? Even if, largely, Democratic policies are better for them. I don't expect people to understand just how different life is, but it's that near ignorance for what so many Americans live in every day that causes a huge disconnect.
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Twins should be buyers this offseason
TheLeviathan replied to AZTwin's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I'd prefer they are both sellers and buyers. They should be trying to sell (or just plain cut) Trevor Plouffe. They should be shopping Santana and Dozier. But they should be buying on arms. -
Good article. I've often wondered what the breakdown is for blame for why poor, overlooked whites have historically voted Republican. It's against their interest and certainly a large share of the blame goes on Republicans for convincing them otherwise, but how much if it is the elitist way the left often treats them? The left embraces so many other poor, down-trodden people, but poor and down-trodden white has never been met with the same reaction. Either way, I do think this group of people is the groundswell behind Trump. And I don't think it's going away even if Trump does. We may only see it escalate.
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Even after both conventions the numbers were close. All you have to do is look at his graph to see why we're not at 50-50 anymore. It wasn't the convention, it was Trump's incessant need to to say stupid things. Hillary is playing it smart - slink back into the shadows and let him destroy himself.
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We're also at a low water mark at this point, there is nothing to stop this from shifting. With how unlikable Hillary is, it won't take much (a small scandal - even an invented one to smear her, an elitist comment, the perception of talking down to Americans in a debate, etc.) for these numbers to shift radically. Silver's analysis also shows we are really only 7-10 days removed from it being 50-50. So things appear to be in major flux right now.
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You're making several arguments and they don't fit together. You can't argue "hey, he's at an .800 OPS right now, that's what matters!" and then "Well, yeah, he's at an .850 OPS but that's not who he really is!" We have a couple of seasons that say Joe Mauer is a .750 OPS player and much of this season has been spent around that number. Can he be better than that? Sure. He can be worse than that too. He's not locked into any certain OPS. But you're using a very recent hot binge to suggest the last few years of evidence are in the rear view mirror. I think some of us are suggesting that's a bit hasty.
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I half expected him to say he was keeping the mosquito population down to save Missourians from Zika.
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Why has Polanco seen no time at Short?
TheLeviathan replied to GP830's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I like that Polanco is getting playing time. I wish it wasn't at the expense of Vargas...... -
So if his September looks like June....then what? It's nice to see Mauer hitting well again, I'd like to enjoy that as much as I can for as long as I can. But did you consider Eduardo Nunez an .850 OPS player in June? No? Yeah, me either. Let's keep perspective.
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I think the first 100 posts of this thread have confirmed what we all know to be true: The only thing we know will be sent down in this transaction is our optimism and serenity levels.
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I can guarantee you that no Onion candidates will be posted in these fun activities....only real, actual morons.
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That question was plenty fun! Let's try another.... Trump.....or this guy?
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Here's a fun game! Trump......or this guy?
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Well, technically, we did move 4. Again, my point is expecting four trades doesn't really have much of a precedent. And I say that because I think it reflects the difficulty of making trades happen. We know from the Astros hack that professional General Managers often call each other like that one guy we all know in fantasy leagues that offers you preposterously horrible trades on a semi-regular basis. So to cut through the stupidity and make things happen is more difficult than we often think. Call the grade whatever you want, but honestly, making three trades happen (in and of itself) is pretty damn active and impressive. Hopefully they pan out.
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Let's be clear, many of the cogs in this offensive turn-around are not ones we were planning on - Kepler, Escobar, Vargas, Suzuki, Grossman, even Rosario. It's great to see this, but man do we need Sano and Buxton to join in.
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Then you're just deliberately ignoring a variety of factors. Voting for Trump can be utterly irrational and indefensible. We can all believe and accept that. And it changes nothing about his odds.
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How about a pitcher?
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Right, but at the same time you bump the percentage up a mere 1 point and you could argue the exact opposite of your point. It just seems really flimsy. I agree, though, Trump could lose by double digits. I also think he's got a decent chance of winning.
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That seems like a really weak argument. If we bump that to 8 percent I could argue 6 of the last 9 have been decided by less than 8%. Is the difference between 7 and 8 percent the difference between being a landslide and a close election? Most of these have been very close, only Reagan's win really stands out.
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Maybe. Here's what I am confident in: Trump's supporters will be at the polls casting their vote. I can pretty much 100% guarantee he'll march out almost all of them. Hillary's supporters? Much, much less sure.
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People thought Brexit was a joke until it happened too.
