Strombomb

* a definition of prayer- an earnest hope or wish.
- Blessings & thanks to all TD writers, who continue to give us great articles to discuss even amidst some opposition.
- Blessings to my friends at TD.
- Blessings & thanks to the moderators who keep the baseball forum civil & open
- Wisdom & insight to our FO so they can evaluate our needs & make the right decisions.
- Uplift the lowly & humble the proud.
- Health, soundness of mind & body to all our players so they can achieve their full potential.
- Qualify our coaches to help train our players
- Happy New Year to all & a prosperous season! Go Twins! 

We've all been there before, battling against a Pollyanna Twins fan who just doesn't get it! The guy is a bum! As they obstinately prattle on citing reason or having watched an MLB game before, the rage grows inside of you until you remember your trump card: He's just another Miguel Sano.
For your reference, I've compiled a list of 2023 Twins hitters and why they're just another Miguel Sano. If you ever meet someone who just won't listen to a baseball genius like yourself, you'll always have this argument.
Christian Vazquez: Overpaid albatross of a contract the Twins will never win paying him 10 million a year! Just another Miguel Sano!
Carlos Correa: OVERPAID! Rod in his leg! Big arm but nothing else! Just another Miguel Sano!
Byron Buxton: Always hurt! Strikes out too much! I thought I was promised him and Sano were going to lead this team to multiple World Series whatever happened to that! Just another Miguel Sano!
Max Kepler: Had a pop-up year in 2019 and has done NOTHING since! Just another Miguel Sano!
Jorge Polanco: Another bust who only made one All Star team! I was promised 12 more! Just another Miguel Sano!
Jordan Luplow: Was on waivers just like Sano should have been! Just another Miguel Sano!
Ryan Jeffers: Big lumbering oaf who strikes out too much! Just another Miguel Sano!
Michael A. Taylor: Runs into one once in a while but everything else is a strikeout! Just another Miguel Sano!
Matt Wallner: Big arm one-trick-pony who strikes out looking too much! Just another Miguel Sano!
Willi Castro: Swings at everything! No plate discipline! Just another Miguel Sano!
Edouard Julien: A butcher in the field and takes too many strikes! Goes up looking to walk! Just another Miguel Sano!
Jose Miranda: Bad third baseman who swings at everything! Just another Miguel Sano!
Trevor Larnach: Too many strikeouts! Just another Miguel Sano!
Kyle Garlick: Supposed to hit righties but doesn't! Just another Miguel Sano!
Donovan Solano: A butcher at third base! Just another Miguel Sano!
Gilberto Celestino: Saw him a couple years ago but not sure where he is now! Just another Miguel Sano!
Kyle Farmer: Actually no I like him he works really hard he plays the game the right way and isn't afraid to get dirty I'd let him date my daughter.
Nick Gordon: Bust who used to be a shortstop! Just another Miguel Sano!
Andrew Stevenson: Killed the ball in the minors but can't hit MLB pitching! Just another Miguel Sano!
Alex Kirilloff: Made an error at first base! Always injured! Never lived up to the hype! Just another Miguel Sano!
Royce, Lewis,: Third baseman who's always hurt! Gets away with it because he's overhyped! Just another Miguel Sano!
Joey Gallo: *enters cardiac arrest*

Wow, what a season. Although it didn’t end the way Twins Territory wanted it to, it was undoubtedly a success. As recent as the second half, this team was flirting with a .500 record, and at multiple times dipped below it. If in March I were to tell you that Byron Buxton AND Carlos Correa were below average hitters for the regular season, you would have thought it was a trainwreck. But with the emergence of players such as Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, and even Spring Training non-roster invitee Willi Castro, it made it an enjoyable season of baseball to watch for fans. That does not even mention Ryan Jeffers breaking out, and the second half Max Kepler had, when it seemed his days of baseball in Minneapolis were over. The streak was finally broken, and now we won’t have to grimace every time somebody mentions a once-active 0-18 playoff streak dating back to 2004 (before I was even born). No matter what anyone says, it was a successful season of Twins Baseball in 2023, and I will leave it at that. With that being said, now we look forward to Twins baseball in 2024, and I decided to create a guide to help navigate the offseason. I have compiled dates, roster information, and hopefully everything you will need to get a better idea of what this offseason will bring. I hope you enjoy!
Free Agents
Sonny Gray
Kenta Maeda
Emilio Pagan
Donovan Solano
Tyler Mahle
Michael A Taylor
Joey Gallo
Dallas Keuchel
40 Man Roster (Doesn’t account for any transactions that will inevitably happen, 38 spots full)
Pitchers (21 spots)
Jorge Alcala
Jordan Balazovic
Matt Canterino
Jose De Leon
Jhoan Duran
Kody Funderburk
Brent Headrick
Ronny Henriquez
Griffin Jax
Pablo Lopez
Jovani Moran
Bailey Ober
Oliver Ortega
Chris Paddack
Joe Ryan
Cole Sands
Brock Stewart
Caleb Thielbar
Louie Varland
Josh Winder
Simeon Woods-Richardson
Hitters
Ryan Jeffers
Christian Vazquez
Carlos Correa 
Kyle Farmer
Edouard Julien
Royce Lewis
Jose Miranda
Jorge Polanco
Willi Castro
Nick Gordon
Max Kepler
Alex Kirilloff
Trevor Larnach
Jordan Luplow
Andrew Stevenson
Matt Wallner
Byron Buxton
Timeline (*Explained Below)
Oct 27-Nov 4: World Series*
5 Days After Conclusion of World Series: League Wide Free Agency Begins* (Player/Team Options Due)* (Qualifying Offer also due)*
Nov 7-9: GM Meetings*
Nov 15: Rule 5 Protection Deadline*, Qualifying Offer Decision Deadline*
Nov 17: Non-Tender Deadline*
Dec 3-6: Winter Meetings*
Dec 5: MLB Draft Lottery*
Dec 6: Rule 5 Draft*
January 2024: BBWAA Hall of Fame Announcement*
Jan 12: Arbitration Agreement Deadline*
Jan 29-Feb 16: Arbitration Hearings*
Feb 14: Pitchers and Catchers Report
Feb 23: Spring Training Game vs. Gophers
Feb 24: First Real Spring Training Game vs. Pirates
Mar 28: Opening Day @Kansas City Royals
World Series - The end of the World Series officially signifies the long offseason starting. The 2024 World Series Game 1 is scheduled for October 27, whereas Game 7 is scheduled for November 4.
Free Agency - Free Agency technically begins the day after the World Series, however, that just is when only the team they are departing from can contact their own free agents. League-wide free agency starts five days after the final game of the World Series, which could be as soon as November 5, or as late as November 9. Team and Player Options are due before league wide free agency starts.
Qualifying Offers - Qualifying Offers must be made within the 5 day window after the World Series ends. This year the qualifying offer is slated to be just over $20 Million. The only one of the 8 departing free agents from the Twins who will likely receive a QO will be Sonny Gray, and he will most likely decline by the November 15 deadline at 3:00 PM CT. It seems that Sonny Gray will sign elsewhere, which will gain the Twins a draft pick. If Sonny signs elsewhere for $50+ Million, the Twins receive a 2024 draft pick right before Competitive Balance Round A (Right after 1st round,) If less than $50 Million, it would be right after Competitive Balance Round B, which is after the 2nd round.
GM Meetings - Typically not much happens here. Just a meeting to explore possible offseason scenarios for General Managers and set framework up for the winter.
Rule 5 Protection - Teams must protect players who signed at age 18 or younger within 5 seasons and players who signed at age 19 or older within 4 seasons. Some Twins prospects who fit that bill and will at least be considered to be added are Jair Camargo, Yunior Severino, Chris Williams, Austin Martin, Dashawn Keirsey, Michael Helman, Anthony Prato, Blayne Enlow, and maybe a few more. Players who are not protected can be chosen by other organizations during the Rule 5 Draft on December 6 for a $100k fee. Players selected must be kept on MLB active roster for the whole season or the MLB IL when it opens up during spring training. Otherwise, if they are DFA’d and clear waivers they must be offered back to their original team for $50k.
Non Tender Deadline/Arbitration - Players with between 3 and 6 years of MLB service time qualify for arbitration. It is a system for players to present themselves and try to be compensated for what they believe to be fair for their play. If a team doesn’t believe that a player is worth their projected arbitration amount, they can choose not to offer them a contract, or “non-tender” them. Said player then becomes a free agent and available to sign with any team after the November 17 deadline. If the team does decide to offer the player a contract before the deadline, they agree to go through a process called arbitration. The teams and the player are free to negotiate a contract all the way until the January 12 deadline. If no agreement is reached, they have to go through the MLB to an Arbitrator. Both sides submit their desired pay figures and the arbitrator uses previous play and other information to decide which figure is more fair. The player is then paid that figure for the year and no more negotiation is had. This can hurt the relationship between the player and the organization, see Corbin Burnes and the Brewers in 2023.
Arbitration Eligible Twins (Expected $ in parentheses)
Caleb Thielbar ($3M)
Kyle Farmer ($6.6M)
Jordan Luplow ($1.6M)
Willi Castro ($3.2M)
Jorge Alcala ($1M)
Ryan Jeffers ($2.3M)
Jose De Leon ($740K)
Alex Kirilloff ($1.7M)
Nick Gordon ($1M)
Non Tender Candidates - Farmer, Luplow, Alcala, De Leon
Winter Meetings - Multiple representatives from each team/organization gather for 4 days of meetings, which is happening this year in Nashville, Tennessee. Here is moreso where trades and signings are discussed between players, teams, and agents. Just as recent as last year, the Winter Meetings have had breaking news when Aaron Judge signed his 9 year, $360 Million megadeal to stay with the Yankees. If you are hoping for breaking MLB news during this offseason, this is the week to expect it to come from.=
BBWAA Hall of Fame Announcement - Typically this is not a huge deal for Twins fans. Recently Jim Kaat and Tony Oliva were inducted to the MLB Hall of Fame, but they were through a different committee. This year is different, Minnesota Twins great Joe Mauer is going to be on the ballot for the first time. Although he may not make it in on the first try, this has been a day Minnesotans have been waiting for for a long time. Other former Twins on the ballot include Torii Hunter, and more infamously Bartolo Colon.
MLB Draft Lottery - In 2023, the Twins infamously jumped up the draft board to pick #5 during the lottery and in July selected Walker Jenkins. This year will not be quite as exciting, only teams who missed the playoffs qualify for the lottery. With the playoff run they had, the Twins will be selecting around pick #25 during the MLB Draft in July.
If you made it all the way through, thank you for reading. I hope you enjoyed and at least learned something. To compilate all of this data took quite a while so any feedback would be appreciated. This was the first article I’ve written in a while so it is very possible I was a bit rusty. If you have any questions leave a comment and I will try my best to clarify/answer. Happy offseason and GO TWINS!!!

Statcast keeps track of hard hits and Joey Gallo makes his living on his hard hit rate. It is a whopping .583. That is 100 points better than the next Twin (>100 ABs) Ryan Jeffers at .481. Of course he strikes out a ton. Many of his outs are whiffs and have no exit velocity. Should those be factored in? I wondered what the data would look like if the denominator was at bats instead of balls in play.
The new leader is Ryan Jeffers. That was unexpected. Add in the strike outs and Jeffers is at .325. Gallo now ranks 5th among Twins with a hard hit average of .311. I was not surprised to see Donovan Solano near the top. He ranks second at .323. I was surprised to see the 3rd and 4th ranked Twins. Jose Miranda is at .318 and Max Kepler at .314. The only other Twins with a hard hit average above .300 is Carlos Correa at .308. The top three have less than 100 at bats and in Wallner's and Garlick's case far less than 100 ABs. 
I don't know if it is meaningful or more meaningful but I like the look of the number. It is more in the batting average range. It takes into account all of a player's outs including the strike outs. I don't know if it has a name so I called it hard hit average. They should consider giving that Wallner kid another look.
Hard Hit Average through June 29
.474 Matt Wallner .357 Kyle Garlick .330 Nick Gordon .325 Ryan Jeffers .323 Donovan Solano .318 Jose Miranda .314 Max Kepler .311 Joey Gallo .308 Carlos Correa .289 Trevor Larnach .283 Jorge Polanco .282 Christian Vazquez .272 Edouard Julien .269 Byron Buxton .259 Alex Kirilloff .250 Royce Lewis .250 Kyle Farmer .239 Willi Castro .232 Michael A. Taylor

Its the debate that never ends. Whose on your all time Twins team? We all agree on the consensus top 4 of Carew, Killebrew, Oliva and Puckett. But after that who? Are you taking Guzman over Gagne? Gladden over Mack? Aguilera over Nathan? 
This is a lot harder than you think because you have a budget, $33 is the budget. You have to create the BEST Twins team with just $33 and *ALL* positions must be represented.
What strategy are you gonna use? What positions are you gonna pay up for? Are you gonna take Killebrew at 1st over Morneau and Hrbek? Are you gonna go with the top 4 mentioned above and use $20 of your $33 there? 
Let's have some fun and see some unique lists. Remember, the entire objective is to create the best Twins team you can, using just $33 dollars. 

There has been a lot made lately of the fact that Byron Buxton has not played an inning in the field or taken a single in-game AB.  If you listen to our players or beat writers you would think that the games are almost unneeded in Spring Training.  Carlos Correa got a late start to Spring games on March 1 and commented that they were not super important.  Do-Hyoung Park posts random short videos of Buxton hitting home runs off of Twins returning from injury like Winder and quotes from Falvey saying Buxton is ready for Opening Day.  Based on this we are supposed to be reassured that everything is OK and normal.
I am not a medical professional or a baseball coach so I can’t prove any of this wrong but what I can do is see if this type of approach is being taken with any other top players.  I went to Fangraphs and sorted all players with 350 PA or more by OPS.  I then checked how many 2023 Spring Training games they had.  Are a lot of the top players following the Twins and Buxton and effectively sitting out Spring Training games in favor of live batting practice?  The results are fairly conclusive:

All the major stars are playing spring training games unless they are currently injured or retired.  Not one other major player in the top 30 is following the lead of the Twins.  The only conclusion I can draw is that Buxton is still injured and we are going through mental gymnastics with the Twins trying to justify that he is not. 
Occam’s Razor states that the simplest explanation is often the correct one.  I would put out there that healthy players play games and injured players don’t.

As we near the final quarter of the MLB season, it’s a good time to take stock of Twins hitters’ performance this season.
To gauge which Twins hitters are having good seasons, I will compare each hitter’s 2022 numbers to their "average" season, then calculate how each player needs to perform for the remainder of 2022 to reach their average statline. In other words, what would it take for each player to have their average season? This approach has its flaws and doesn’t work for rookies, but it’s a fun thought exercise. This post is a little math-heavy -- I'll lay out some simple examples along the way. Let’s give it a go.
First, I calculate what an "average" 2022 season would be for each player. I start by estimating the number of games each player will play this season based on the share of games they have played to this point. For example, if a player has played 2/3 of all games so far, I estimate they will play 2/3 of the remaining games for a total of 108 games played (2/3 of 162) .
Then, using this final 2022 games-played number, I calculate how Twins batters would perform in the full 2022 season based only on their 162-game career averages from before this season. For example, if a player hit 30 doubles per 162 games before 2022 and is projected to play 2/3 of all games in 2022, their "average" 2022 season would include 108 games played and 20 doubles (2/3 of 30).

To assess whether a player is performing well or poorly in 2022, I compare their “average” season (above) to their real 2022 statistics, and calculate how each player would need to perform for the rest of the season in order to finish with their average season statline. For example, Gio Urshela's average projections estimate he will hit 14 homeruns in 2022; he currently has 11 homeruns, meaning he needs to hit 3 more before the season ends to have an average season.
This helps us gauge performance because, if a player needs to finish the year hitting like prime Barry Bonds to have their average season, that’s an indication they have had a rough season so far. Conversely, a player is probably having a good season if they can reach their career averages by hitting like a slumping Nick Punto for the final month and a half. 
The table below shows how each batter would need to perform in the final quarter of the season to finish 2022 with their "average" statline.
The red boxes highlight areas where players have a lot of work left to do. Green highlights areas where players are in good shape.

It’s immediately clear that Gary Sanchez and Max Kepler are unlikely to reach their career averages. I'm not holding my breath for them to combine for 33 homeruns and an OPS around 1.000 in the team's final 46 games.
Carlos Correa has been mildly underwhelming across the board in 2022, which is reflected by the hot stretch needed to achieve his average season. It’s not entirely out of the question for Correa to heat up and hit .290/.372/.626 with 9 homeruns the rest of the way, but it’s getting less likely by the day.
Polanco and Buxton are interesting cases, posting homerun and walk numbers that blow away their career averages, but both players have sacrificed their batting averages to do so. I think Twins fans have mixed feelings about their approaches to hitting.
Urshela has been solid all season, which shows in the mediocre numbers he needs to reach his career averages.
And finally, clearly, Luis Arraez has been outstanding in 2022. He could probably hit .237 down the stretch with one arm tied behind his back.
Thanks for reading!
 

Pagan. I meant Pagan. Gonna give me a heart attack or an Aneurysm...
 
... At least it's not Colome

New to the site, we've added both the active roster and the 40-man roster pages!
These pages will update nightly so they'll always be up-to-date with the current state of the big league club, adding yet another long-term feature I've wanted to see on our baseball sites basically forever. There isn't a lot to say about these pages other than they feature the standard set of player info: name, position, handedness, DoB, etc.
To find these pages, use the hamburger menu at the top right of every page (the three horizontal lines), click "Twins Resources", and then you'll be presented the options for both the roster pages and the team schedule for the season.
As always, if you have suggestions for new features you'd like to see added or improvements to current features, please comment below!

Too many Larry and Sue Capital One commercials, I guess.
But I've been thinking: now that Opening Day is just eight days away, what's the one word that best describes your perspective going into the season? 
I'm writing as an eternal optimist, but I'm going to go with "intrigued." 
I'm intrigued to see what lineup combinations Rocco will try, especially at the top of the order. And I say "combinations," because there will be many. Last year, there were 149 different lineups in 162 games. Part of that was injuries, but flexibility in roster and lineup construction is a hallmark of this administration.  I'm intrigued to see what it's like to have Byron and Carlos hitting back-to-back, at least on occasion. I've been wondering, but haven't seen anyone note whether this is the first time that the top two players in a single draft ended up as teammates.  I'm intrigued to see exactly how tiny the Bermuda triangle between Buxton, Correa and Polanco is going to be.  And while I'm at it with the Byron and Carlos lovefest, I'm intrigued to know what the laundry bill is going to for cleaning the shorts of opposing pitchers if those two get on a roll at the same time, especially if Sano happens to hit one of his hot streaks at the same time. Not sure I REALLY want to know that answer, but sorta intrigued in a macabre sort of way. I'm intrigued to see if either Bundy or Archer is able to reclaim their prior highlights. I'm intrigued of what this notion of a Gray-Bundy-Archer-Ryan-Ober rotation might actually pull off.  I'm also intrigued at what looks a little like a hodgepodge of relievers, and how there seems to be different skill sets represented, and how they could conceivably turn into a unit where the whole is significantly better than the sum of its parts.  I'm intrigued to see how Rocco works with that 10-man bullpen. Some (many) of his decisions look wacko on the service (and get lambasted in the Game Thread), but my experience has been that very often when I drill down to consider the rest patterns, pitcher availability, the likelihood of actually winning the game at hand, and how things set up for the next day, there is almost always a logical progression. Doesn't always work, but it's logical -- that's the nature of the beast. And that's why I'm sitting at home on the Game Thread instead of being in the dugout. I'm especially intrigued with how Rocco meshes that bullpen with a starting rotation in which day-to-day consistency may be severely lacking. Each of the five starters (make that 10-12 by year-end) have the potential to be really good on a given day. Or really bad. As the self-proclaimed inventor of the bullpenning strategy after riding a three-man rotation and incredible cards from Mike Timlin and a bunch of guys I can't remember to the 1992 Northern Indiana Offseason Strat-O-Matic regular-season championship, I think it will be fun to see the mixing and matching. I'm intrigued to see how long the leash is going to be on pitchers, both starter and reliever, and which order other guys come up, both in terms of 26/28-man roster and 40-man roster decisions. That includes the guys on minor league contracts that will have to wait their turn. I'm intrigued to see if Sanchez can simultaneously regain his power stroke and become something more reliable than a cement block at stopping pitches.  I'm intrigued by Larnach. At my one and only College World Series game, about two weeks after he was drafted, he jacked a long home run, and I thought, "Oh, my -- this could be fun." While I'm at it, I'm intrigued by Kirilloff too. I'm intrigued to see how Lewis bounces back. I'm intrigued to see if Miranda is indeed legit and whether he's able to force the issue. And Winder and Enlow, etc. See three bullets previous. I'm intrigued to find out the taste of Killebrew Root Beer, and I'm looking forward to trying it at a Saints game in a couple weeks. I'm intrigued to see if, and when, they pull off a trade for a pitcher. This front office works under the radar, and I can easily imagine waking up some morning to a May Day present (and I don't mean just Trevor) of somebody's No. 2 starter that they got for Jermaine Palacios. Or a second present, when they re-sign Palacios after he's been DFAed by his new team and then trade him again! Okay, probably not Palacios, but I wouldn't be surprised if they pull something off when we least expect it, at the cost of only a lottery pick. I'm intrigued by how many of us will be in Cooperstown on July 17 to see Tony O and Kitty Kaat.  I'm intrigued by whether they'll go with the powder blue or the Dairy Queen red in Game 1 vs. the Dodgers in October. (See line 3 and the statement about being an optimist.) I'm intrigued by the forgotten man, and whether Kenta Maeda might sneak back for some late-season usage, either with a few starts or in the bullpen, where he's had some past success. (See previous bullet for a hint of what I'm talking about.) I'm intrigued to find out what a Godoy is. And whether we'll be waiting for him. So, "intrigued" is my word. What are you intrigued about?
And what's the word that captures where you're at with this team?

Everybody's trying to save baseball from something. Things aren't the way they oughta be. Or they're not the way they were. Baseball purists tilt a windmills and sling arrows at one another with one goal in mind - keep The Game intact for the future. The generational hand-off has to occur, or The Game gets lost.
What's really at stake? What are we fighting for? Real life has enough to engage us. There are plenty of other sports. What makes baseball so noble? Just recently, many denigrated the sport as "just a game" when the owners and players fought for their own visions for the future of the sport. The players get to play a kid's game for a living. The diamond is not real life. So many complaints, and yet many of those incensed will come back to the game with their money in hand.
Baseball, after the first pitch is thrown, runs on its own hourglass. I'm not the first person to notice baseball games take as long as they take. A new pitch clock won't change that. The game lasts until the final out is recorded. And I'd be resorting to a cliche if I mentioned baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. 
The world, however, has moved so very far away from that baseball ethos. Look at where we are. Seriously. We're literally suffering through two of the four horsemen of the Apocalypse. Where are you getting your doom from? It's always in your pocket, waiting on your cell phone. You can take a quick break at work and use that office computer to keep tabs on the spreading darkness. Make sure you only check in with the news agencies that share your point of view. We're always behind and we're sprinting every day.
When a baseball game is being played, your brain has a chance to work through all the angles. Like a chess game, to borrow another cliche. The organist plays along as you ponder coaching decisions under the sky and the stars. The world is shrunk down to one problem, Home versus Away.  Baseball rewards you for paying attention and using your brain. If you miss the plot, you miss a lot. 
When we save baseball, we save ourselves. At least, we save the part of ourselves that has time to sit with a problem and take the time to work on it. When the game is done, we're back to real life. Everything moves fast and if you can't win the first time, don't try. We lack patience.
Fixing baseball is dangerous. If it loses patience and thoughtfulness, it loses its identity. And we can't afford to lose more parts of society that reward patience and thoughtfulness. Take a child to a baseball game the way it is now and, true, they might be bored. But boredom doesn't kill kids. Give that kid some of your time and explain the game. Watch the joy on their face when they start to see the inner cogs of the mental game. Congratulations! You just shared a valuable life skill. You just taught a kid about relationships and strategies.
Because The Game is STILL The Game. It's been The Game since before the Civil War, and it's more important now than ever because the world is broken. Life is fragile - it's even more fragile when the threat of war and more war looms over the world. Baseball isn't the only solution, but I firmly believe it is one solution. The kids will come to baseball and they will learn to be patient and thoughtful and they'll transfer those skills into navigating a treacherous, hostile world. If the kids never learn those skills in this fast-paced, chaotic world, it's not baseball that will be lost.  It's us.

We often comment on whether current Twins are good, average or bad hitters by using OPS. The problem I see is we're using a broad average for everyone not broken down by position. I looked around the Internet and found an article in ScoreSheetWiz where the author had taken the average of the top 30 players in each position over the last 3 years and averaged their OPS. That should give you what the average starter in MLB does at that position by taking out emergency fill ins, utility players,  etc. and sounds like a good basis for comparison. Here's the comparison to current Twins, based on their performance for this season to date. I've also put their career OPS in parenthesis with the YTD comparison where they'd been around long enough to make that meaningful. The positions go from lowest to highest by MLB average OPS. 
Position Average OPS Current Twin OPS/(Career) Difference Catcher .748 Garver .889 (.834) Plus .151 (+ .86)     Jeffers .720 Minus .028 Shortstop .749 Simmons .576 (.688) Minus .173 (-.061) Second Base .763 Polanco .797 (.774) Plus .034 (+.011) Centerfield .777 Buxton 1.176 (.751) Plus .409 (-.026)     Kepler .759 Minus .018 Third Base .805 Donaldson .840 (.875) Plus .035 (+.070)     Arraez .747 (.793) Minus .058 (-.012) Corner OF .819 Kepler .722 (.759) Minus .097 (-060)     Larnach .676 Minus .143     Rooker .750 Minus .069 First Base .859 Kirilloff .722 Minus .137     Sano .746 (.819) Minus .113 (-.040) I thought this was kind of interesting and helps explain where our holes are forward. For example, Arraez is a below average hitting starter this year either at 3rd or left-field, about average in 2nd base, but career wise above average at 2nd base, average at 3rd, and below average for corner outfield. Since he adds no surplus defensive value, he really needs to OPS >.800 if he's not going to play 2nd base. Kepler is a little tougher to evaluate since his bat is clearly significantly below average for a corner outfielder, and a little below average for centerfielder, but he does offer surplus defensive value in a corner outfield spots, not so much centerfield. That's why I think is an ideal 3rd or 4th outfielder, but not 1 of our top 2. The 2 Rookies are way below average but this is their 1st year so you hope for improvement and it's a small sample size. Same for Kirilloff. Sano is also a below average hitting starter at 1st Base who doesn't offer any surplus defensive value. I didn't bother with guys like Jake Cave (.508 (.735)) or Willians Astudillo (.721 (.738)) since they are way below an average starter unless they play shortstop, and even then they're not very strong. Both are classic back end roster filler and we should be looking for upgrades like Gordon, Refsnyder and others.
I do think this helps explain why we're having trouble scoring runs. We only have 3 above average hitters for their position now that Cruz is gone, Donaldson, Polanco and Garver, and only Polanco really plays every day. Most days we're liable to only have 2 players who are average or better hitters for their position. The batting order is really weighed down by poor performance at the corner outfield spots, centerfield when Buxton isn't there (even worse when someone other than Kepler is playing centerfield), and shortstop.
I guess this tells me 4 things 1st, re-sign Buxton. He is critical to the order. 2nd, I was wrong about Donaldson. He is pretty valuable at the plate and Arraez is not an adequate replacement. 3rd, we need better hitting corner outfielders and Kepler is not the answer. The current strategy of playing Rooker and Larnach every day is the right one because those guys have to improve to give us more balance in the order. 4th, Arraez is probably best used as a utility player with Polanco the better hitter and better fielder at 2nd base. He's a good utility player, more of an average hitter for a starter, and we can get him 400 – 500 bats to utilize his on-base skills by playing him at a variety of spots.
We talk a lot about how the pitching has to improve to truly contend. I postulate the lineup has to improve as well. I think most contending have average or better hitters for their positions in at least 5 or 6 of the 9 spots. We have 4 if you assume that someone like that Cruz is the DH, a position where I was unable to find an average OPS. otherwise 3. The current lineup isn't good enough to compete and absolutely isn't good enough if the pitching is below average. Helps explain this year's performance and helps us know what we need to do for next year.

Critique of a front office is easy to make in the midst of a deeply disappointing season. While many fans are languishing over the incoming July trade deadline, I've heard a lot of complaints about the lack of waiver claims made this season by the Minnesota Twins.
Why are the Twins continuing to trot out the likes of Colomé, Happ, and (formerly) Shoemaker, when the front office can claim replacement-level players from other teams for essentially nothing? 
The outright waiver transaction process is a deeply complicated one. Whenever a team wants to remove a player that is already on the 40-man roster, that player must first be offered to each of the other 29 major league teams. If another team claims that player, the player goes on that new team's 40-man roster. The full definition from MLB can be found here. 
Because I'm insane, and this season is awful, I decided to compile a list of every player that the Falvey/Levine front office has claimed from other organizations, in addition to players they've lost via waiver claims.
How have they fared in the waiver claim game?  Should they pick up the pace, now that they have nothing to lose? Do these claims actually amount to anything?
These questions are important... but so is the trip down memory lane, once you read some of these names. 
Players Acquired Via Waiver Claim
 
Date of Claim Player Claimed Position Team Claimed From fWAR in Minnesota 2/6/2017 Ehire Adrianza UTL IF San Francisco Giants 2.1 5/10/2017 Adam Wilk LHP New York Mets -0.2 6/7/2017 Chris Heston RHP Los Angeles Dodgers 0.0 3/24/2018 Kenny Vargas 1B Cincinatti Reds - 4/26/2018 David Hale RHP New York Yankees -0.2 5/28/2018 Taylor Motter UTL Seattle Mariners -0.3 8/3/2018 Johnny Field RF Cleveland Indians 0.1 8/3/2018 Oliver Drake RHP Cleveland Indians 0.2 10/31/2018 Michael Reed CF Atlanta Braves - 11/26/2018 C.J. Cron 1B Tampa Bay Rays 0.3 10/29/2019 Matt Wisler RHP Seattle Mariners 0.6 10/30/2020 Ian Gibault RHP Texas Rangers - 10/30/2020 Brandon Waddell  LHP Pittsburgh Pirates -0.3 2/5/2021 Ian Hamilton RHP Philadelphia Phillies - 2/11/2021 Kyle Garlick RF Atlanta Braves 0.3 6/22/2021 Beau Burrows RHP Detroit Tigers -           Total fWAR 2.6 The Twins have claimed a total of 16 players from opposing organizations since Falvey/Levine took over after the 2016 World Series. Of these 16 claims, their most consequential claim was their very first one. Ehire Adrianza was never a star, but a very productive role player for a number of contending Twins teams. 

After that, the list isn't so impressive. Matt Wisler was great at slinging sliders in the bullpen during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but the Twins cut him last offseason in a puzzling move. C.J. Cron and the currently-injured Kyle Garlick have been the largest "successes" outside of Adrianza and Wisler, each account for 0.3 fWAR as right-handed hitters that were acquired to mash left-handed pitching. 
Most of these players did not remain on the 40-man roster for a long time. Quite a few were lost to waivers shortly after the Twins acquired them, which include Kenny Vargas, Johnny Field, Oliver Drake, and Brandon Waddell. Such is the life on the waiver wire for many MLB players. 
Players Lost Via Waiver Claim
 
Date of Claim Player Position Team Claimed By fWAR after Minnesota 11/18/2016 Adam Brett Walker LF Milwaukee Brewers - 8/26/2017 Tim Melville RHP San Diego Padres -0.2 9/14/2017 Engelb Vielma SS San Francisco Giants -0.1 11/3/2017 Randy Rosario LHP Chicago Cubs -0.3 11/3/2017 Daniel Palka OF Chicago White Sox -0.7 11/6/2017 Nik Turley LHP Pittsburgh Pirates 0.2 1/22/2018 Buddy Boshers LHP Houston Astros 0.1 2/23/2018 JT Chargois RHP Los Angeles Dodgers 0.5 3/22/2018 Kenny Vargas 1B Cincinatti Reds - 7/9/2018 Ryan LaMarre CF Chicago White Sox 0.4 10/10/2018 Juan Graterol C Cincinatti Reds -0.2 11/1/2018 Johnny Field RF Chicago Cubs - 11/1/2018 Oliver Drake RHP Tampa Bay Rays 0.4 1/11/2019 Aaron Slegers RHP Pittsburgh Pirates 0.4 5/26/2019 Austin Adams RHP Detroit Tigers -0.1 7/20/2019 Adalberto Mejia LHP Los Angeles Angels 0.0 8/14/2019 Ryan Eades RHP Baltimore Orioles -0.2 9/16/2019 Marcos Diplan RHP Detroit Tigers - 11/4/2019 Stephen Gonsalves LHP New York Mets - 9/5/2020 Ildemaro Vargas 2B Chicago Cubs -0.5 10/1/2020 Sean Poppen RHP Pittsburgh Pirates -0.1 5/8/2021 Brandon Waddell LHP Baltimore Orioles 0 5/14/2021 Travis Blankenhorn 2B Los Angeles Dodgers -0.1 6/5/2021 Dakota Chalmers RHP Chicago Cubs - 6/18/2021 Shaun Anderson RHP Texas Rangers -           Total fWAR -0.5 You'll immediately notice this list of players lost via waivers during the Falvyey/Levine regime is a lot longer than the list of players they've acquired via waivers. All together, they have lost 25 players, which is 9 more players than they've claimed from other teams. 
The good news for the organization, is that this cumulative list has not come back to bite them. 10 of the 25 claimed players provided negative value for their new teams, after departing Minnesota. Daniel Palka's 2017 season really sunk this group, as he posted a -1.4 fWAR in only 93 plate appearances for the White Sox (after he provided 0.7 fWAR and a 109 wRC+ in 2018). 
The largest losses from this group have definitely been in the relief category, highlighted by JT Chargois, Oliver Drake, and Aaron Slegers. However, most of these players have had inconsistent careers, injuries, or both, in their time after playing for Minnesota. 
Even when factoring in some bullpen pieces this organization might regret losing, the total fWAR from these players after departing the Twins is -0.5 fWAR. The current front office has been right far more than wrong, when deciding how to churn the 40-man roster. 
Yearly Trends And Overall Takeaway
Year Players Claimed From Other Teams Players Claimed By Other Teams 2016/2017 3 6 2018 7 7 2019 1 6 2020 2 2 2021 3 4 Total Players 16 25       Total fWAR 2.6 -0.5 fWAR Difference   3.1 Overall, the Twins have gained 3.1 fWAR from their decisions to gain and lose players from the waiver wire. That's a pretty decent result for a type of front office transaction that is often overlooked. It averages out to about 0.69 fWAR per season, factoring in the 4.5 seasons of the Falvey/Levine regime. 
Most of that waiver activity came in 2017 and 2018, when the front office was still adjusting to their inherited players from the previous front office. Successful teams don't always gamble roster spots on players exposed to outright waivers, which is evident in the 2019 team. 
One major caveat to point out across the yearly trend is that teams were probably hesitant to claim players from other organizations during the COVID-19 pandemic, so 2020 and early 2021 should be viewed through that lens.
However, that didn't stop the Twins from claiming 3 bullpen arms (Ian Gibault, Brandon Waddell, and Ian Hamilton), and Kyle Garlick this offseason. The jury is still out on these claims, but Waddell did not go well. 
The most interesting thing about 2021 is that the Twins lost 4 players during their early season free-fall (Brandon Waddell, Travis Blankenhorn, Dakota Chalmers, and Shaun Anderson), before claiming Beau Burrows a few weeks ago from the Detroit Tigers.
Is former first-round draft pick Beau Burrows the tip of the iceberg? Now that 2021 is officially kaput, will the front office be more aggressive? 
I sure hope so. Moves will be made in the next few weeks, and this 40-man roster will be significantly different as we approach the trade deadline. The 40-man roster will likely be smaller, and the Twins will be in front of the line when contenders have to cut players to account for their deadline additions. 
Waiver claims are rarely sexy transactions, but sometimes you stumble into a Ehire Adrianza or a Matt Wisler. The Twins have proven to be more successful than not when it comes to their waiver claim game. It's time to play, because there's simply nothing to lose. 

I’d like to discuss the way I see forward for the Minnesota Twins to become a team ready for a deep playoff run or World Series victory. The focus will be on top quality pitching. I’ll use a couple of case studies of teams that had very deep and strong pitching and great success, those teams being the 1980 Baltimore Orioles and the 1972-1974 Oakland A’s.
Then I’ll take a look at how the Twins can get to that level.
First, how did I get to this point of believing pitching is more important than I originally thought?
Although, a Twins fan since 1964, the media and options for following the Twins on a more comprehensive level only opened up to me in the 1970s. I lived in Toledo, Ohio but had discovered the Twins at Tinker Field in Orlando when my Dad took me to a game vs. the Cincinnati Reds. The Twins won and the rest was history for me!
In the 1960s it was linescores in the newspaper and the occasional game of the week with Joe Garagiola and Tony Kubek. 
Then one glorious night in 1973, I thought to myself, "Wouldn’t it be great to be able to pick up Twins games on the radio." I had been twirling the station tuner knob that night pickng up any games I could. Seemingly miraculously, within 10-15 minutes I heard a new voice and paused to see what team(s) I had come across. Imagine my astonishment when I learned that it was the Twins broadcast from WHO in Des Moines, Iowa.
I first heard the voice of Herb Carneal that night and stayed up late listening to Twins baseball as my recollection is that it was a doubleheader, possibly from the west coast. Herb became my constant companion for many years and my love for the Twins grew exponentially. 
I remember annually thnking the the Twins were going to win the AL West this season and the next and the next but it never happened. Why? I couldn’t figure it out as they had such fine hitters as Jim Holt, Steve Braun, Rod Carew,  Bobby Darwin, Mike Cubbage, then Glenn Adams, Lyman Bostock and Larry Hisle. 
The 1977 team brought things into clear focus. The offense, while maybe not as deep as 2019, was at the upper echelon - arguably the greatest offense in Twins history. On June 26, 1977 I listened to and scored from my basement in Ohio, a 19-12 Twins win over the White Sox, listening to Harey Carey from 670 WMAQ in Chicago.
Alas, the Twins had a mediocre to poor pitching staff in 1977. That to go along with possibly the best hitting team in Twins history and, in my opinion, the greatest manager in Twins history - the brilliant tactician and innovator, Gene Mauch. Suffice to say, from 1977 on, I realized that only a team with very strong pitching could hope to be in the playoffs (back them it was only AL East vs. West, then the World Series) or win the World Series.
Let’s take a look at the 1977 Twins. (courtesy of baseball-reference.com)
Pos Name Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ C Butch Wynegar# 21 144 617 532 76 139 22 3 10 79 2 3 68 61 .261 .344 .370 .715 96 1B Rod Carew* 31 155 694 616 128 239 38 16 14 100 23 13 69 55 .388 .449 .570 1.019 178 2B Bob Randall 29 103 342 306 36 73 13 2 0 22 1 4 15 25 .239 .289 .294 .583 61 SS Roy Smalley# 24 150 680 584 93 135 21 5 6 56 5 5 74 89 .231 .316 .315 .631 74 3B Mike Cubbage* 26 129 464 417 60 110 16 5 9 55 1 4 37 49 .264 .321 .391 .712 94 LF Larry Hisle 30 141 620 546 95 165 36 3 28 119 21 10 56 106 .302 .369 .533 .902 144 CF Lyman Bostock* 26 153 660 593 104 199 36 12 14 90 16 7 51 59 .336 .389 .508 .897 144 RF Dan Ford 25 144 510 453 66 121 25 7 11 60 6 4 41 79 .267 .338 .426 .764 108 DH Craig Kusick 28 115 325 268 34 68 12 0 12 45 3 1 49 60 .254 .370 .433 .803 120 Pos Name Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ DH Rich Chiles* 27 108 295 261 31 69 16 1 3 36 0 1 23 17 .264 .323 .368 .691 89 DH Glenn Adams* 29 95 290 269 32 91 17 0 6 49 0 2 18 30 .338 .376 .468 .844 130 3B Jerry Terrell 30 93 235 214 32 48 6 0 1 20 10 4 11 21 .224 .263 .266 .530 46 2B Rob Wilfong* 23 73 193 171 22 42 1 1 1 13 10 4 17 26 .246 .321 .281 .602 67 LF Bob Gorinski 25 54 126 118 14 23 4 1 3 22 1 0 5 29 .195 .226 .322 .548 48 CF Willie Norwood 26 39 91 83 15 19 3 0 3 9 6 1 6 17 .229 .281 .373 .654 78 IF Luis Gomez 25 32 74 65 6 16 4 2 0 11 0 2 4 9 .246 .290 .369 .659 80 C Glenn Borgmann 27 17 54 43 12 11 1 0 2 7 0 0 11 9 .256 .407 .419 .826 128 C Bud Bulling 24 15 39 32 2 5 1 0 0 5 0 0 5 5 .156 .270 .188 .458 29 3B Larry Wolfe 24 8 27 25 3 6 1 0 0 6 0 0 1 0 .240 .269 .280 .549 51 2B Sam Perlozzo 26 10 27 24 6 7 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 3 .292 .346 .458 .804 119 DH Randy Bass* 23 9 19 19 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 .105 .105 .105 .211 -42 Next the pitching staff that held the team to an 84-77 record.
Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Team Totals 27.1 84 77 4.36 161 161 126 35 4 25 1442.0 1546 776 698 151 507 737 91 4.21 1.424   Rank in 14 AL teams   7 8 12       11 9 10 8  12 12 12 10 7 12       Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP SP Dave Goltz 28 20 11 3.36 39 39 0 19 2 0 303.0 284 129 113 23 91 186 119 3.42 1.238 SP Paul Thormodsgard 23 11 15 4.62 37 37 0 8 1 0 218.0 236 122 112 25 65 94 86 4.30 1.381 SP Geoff Zahn* 31 12 14 4.68 34 32 0 7 1 0 198.0 234 116 103 20 66 88 85 4.24 1.515 SP Pete Redfern 22 6 9 5.18 30 28 2 1 0 0 137.1 164 89 79 13 66 73 77 4.44 1.675 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP CL Tom Johnson 26 16 7 3.13 71 0 54 0 0 15 146.2 152 57 51 11 47 87 128 3.59 1.357 RP Ron Schueler 29 8 7 4.41 52 7 21 0 0 3 134.2 131 74 66 16 61 77 91 4.63 1.426 RP Tom Burgmeier* 33 6 4 5.09 61 0 20 0 0 7 97.1 113 56 55 15 33 35 79 5.10 1.500 RP Dave Johnson 28 2 5 4.58 30 6 16 0 0 0 72.2 86 42 37 7 23 33 88 4.24 1.500 RP Jeff Holly* 24 2 3 6.89 18 5 6 0 0 0 48.1 57 37 37 8 12 32 58 4.37 1.428 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Gary Serum 20 0 0 4.37 8 0 2 0 0 0 22.2 22 11 11 4 10 14 93 5.39 1.412   Bill Butler* 30 0 1 6.86 6 4 0 0 0 0 21.0 19 17 16 5 15 5 59 7.64 1.619   Mike Pazik* 27 1 0 2.50 3 3 0 0 0 0 18.0 18 5 5 1 6 6 163 3.79 1.333   Don Carrithers 27 0 1 6.91 7 0 3 0 0 0 14.1 16 13 11 2 6 3 59 5.60 1.535   Jim Shellenback* 33 0 0 7.94 5 0 0 0 0 0 5.2 10 7 5 1 5 3 54 6.62 2.647   Jim Hughes 25 0 0 2.08 2 0 2 0 0 0 4.1 4 1 1 0 1 1 209 2.97 1.154 Notice that the starting rotation was basically one pitcher deep, their ace, Dave Goltz, he of the knuckle-curve. The staff ERA was 4.36, which is not so much a reflection of the quality of the starting staff but of the superior work of two relievers who ate up 281.1 innings. Tom Johnson was the one most responsible for holding down the team ERA with his 3.13 ERA, 16-7 record and 146.2 innings as the closer! Amazingly, after the Twins had lost Bill Campbell and his 17-5 record in relief in 1976 to free-agency, they were able to plug in Johnson.
It’s pretty plain to see that the top 9 pitchers listed, excepting Goltz and Johnson, are what held back this team with a juggernaut offense from a possible division championship or even World Series victory. Just one quality starter.
Two other major factors influenced my thinking on the value of deep, quality pitching.
The first was the astonishing success of the 1972-1974 Oakland A’s, who may have won 5-7 World Series in a row except for the advent of free-agency. Charley Finley waved the white flag of surrender just as much as Calvin Griffith did and the Oakland dynasty was destroyed. Take a look at the pitching staff of a World Champion three years running. The names changed slightly but the prioritization on pitching is the teachable lesson! (courtesy of baseball-reference.com)
Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Team Totals 26.7 94 68 3.29 162 162 116 46 12 41 1457.1 1311 532 143 494 797 109 3.83 1.239   Rank in 12 AL teams   2 11 2       9 2 2 3  2 3 9 4 8       Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP SP Ken Holtzman* 27 21 13 2.97 40 40 0 16 4 0 297.1 275 98 22 66 157 120 3.18 1.147 SP Vida Blue* 23 20 9 3.28 37 37 0 13 4 0 263.2 214 96 26 105 158 109 3.89 1.210 SP Catfish Hunter 27 21 5 3.34 36 36 0 11 3 0 256.1 222 95 39 69 124 107 4.40 1.135 SP Blue Moon Odom 28 5 12 4.49 30 24 4 3 0 0 150.1 153 75 14 67 83 79 4.05 1.463 SP Dave Hamilton* 25 6 4 4.39 16 11 1 1 0 0 69.2 74 34 8 24 34 81 4.16 1.407 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP CL Rollie Fingers 26 7 8 1.92 62 2 49 0 0 22 126.2 107 27 5 39 110 186 2.36 1.153 RP Darold Knowles* 31 6 8 3.09 52 5 26 1 1 9 99.0 87 34 7 49 46 116 4.13 1.374 RP Horacio Pina 28 6 3 2.76 47 0 24 0 0 8 88.0 58 27 8 34 41 129 4.25 1.045 RP Paul Lindblad* 31 1 5 3.69 36 3 11 0 0 2 78.0 89 32 8 28 33 97 4.25 1.500 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Glenn Abbott 22 1 0 3.86 5 3 1 1 0 0 18.2 16 8 3 7 6 94 5.14 1.232   Rob Gardner* 28 0 0 4.91 3 0 0 0 0 0 7.1 10 4 2 4 2 77 7.20 1.909   Chuck Dobson 29 0 1 7.71 1 1 0 0 0 0 2.1 6 2 1 2 3 55 8.14 3.429 Second was playing table top baseball with a good friend who was an avid Orioles fan. We played my Twins team against his Orioles for many games, who while not having the offense of the Twins, kept running out a relentless rotation of Palmer, Flanagan, Dennis Martinez, Scott McGregor. I was defeated more often than not by this pitching staff and got used to being dominated. I was forever changed! This is the kind of staff I’d like to see the Twins aspire to! (courtesy of baseball-reference.com)
Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Team Totals 26.8 90 71 3.56 161 161 96 65 14 33 1429.0 1340 566 107 509 754 99 3.60 1.294   Rank in 14 AL teams   5 10 5       1 2 2 11  2 4 4 7 5       Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP SP Jim Palmer 32 21 12 2.46 38 38 0 19 6 0 296.0 246 81 19 97 138 143 3.48 1.159 SP Mike Flanagan* 26 19 15 4.03 40 40 0 17 2 0 281.1 271 126 22 87 167 87 3.37 1.273 SP Dennis Martinez 24 16 11 3.52 40 38 0 15 2 0 276.1 257 108 20 93 142 100 3.54 1.267 SP Scott McGregor* 24 15 13 3.32 35 32 2 13 4 1 233.0 217 86 19 47 94 106 3.46 1.133 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP CL Don Stanhouse 27 6 9 2.89 56 0 47 0 0 24 74.2 60 24 0 52 42 122 3.55 1.500 RP Joe Kerrigan 24 3 1 4.77 26 2 16 0 0 3 71.2 75 38 10 36 41 74 4.85 1.549 RP Tippy Martinez* 28 3 3 4.83 42 0 16 0 0 5 69.0 77 37 4 40 57 73 3.47 1.696 RP Nelson Briles 34 4 4 4.64 16 8 4 1 0 0 54.1 58 28 6 21 30 76 4.19 1.454 RP John Flinn 23 1 1 8.04 13 0 5 0 0 0 15.2 24 14 3 13 8 45 6.54 2.362 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Tim Stoddard 25 0 1 6.00 8 0 3 0 0 0 18.0 22 12 3 8 14 60 4.86 1.667   Dave Ford 21 1 0 0.00 2 1 1 0 0 0 15.0 10 0 0 2 5   2.32 0.800   Sammy Stewart 23 1 1 3.18 2 2 0 0 0 0 11.1 10 4 0 3 11 115 1.44 1.147   Earl Stephenson* 30 0 0 2.79 2 0 2 0 0 0 9.2 10 3 0 5 4 131 3.31 1.552   Elrod Hendricks 37 0 0 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0 2.1 1 0 0 1 0   3.87 0.857   Larry Harlow* 26 0 0 67.50 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 2 5 1 4 1 9 37.09 9.000 Now, let’s compare this year’s Twins staff to, first the 1977 Twins, and then secondly to the 1973 A’s and the 1978 Orioles. (courtesy of baseball-reference.com)
Pos Name Age W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Team Totals 30.4 29 41 .414 4.94 70 70 70 0 0 17 610.1 619 335 104 209 574 84 4.67 1.357   Rank in 15 AL teams   12 4   14       8 9 8 11  13 13 14 5 13       Pos Name Age W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP SP Jose Berrios 27 7 2 .778 3.56 14 14 0 0 0 0 83.1 70 33 10 21 87 115 3.58 1.092 SP J.A. Happ* 38 3 3 .500 6.12 12 12 0 0 0 0 60.1 69 41 11 18 44 67 5.13 1.442 SP Michael Pineda (10-day IL) 32 3 4 .429 3.70 11 11 0 0 0 0 56.0 49 23 10 15 51 111 4.48 1.143 SP Matt Shoemaker 34 2 8 .200 7.57 13 11 2 0 0 0 54.2 66 46 12 23 37 54 6.04 1.628 SP Kenta Maeda 33 2 2 .500 5.01 10 10 0 0 0 0 46.2 55 26 9 14 46 82 4.80 1.479 Pos Name Age W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP CL Taylor Rogers* 30 2 3 .400 2.73 28 0 11 0 0 7 29.2 26 9 3 5 41 152 2.23 1.045 RP Hansel Robles 30 3 3 .500 2.84 32 0 9 0 0 5 31.2 21 10 2 19 33 145 3.80 1.263 RP Jorge Alcala 25 1 1 .500 3.49 29 0 11 0 0 0 28.1 16 11 7 7 24 118 5.54 0.812 RP Tyler Duffey 30 0 2 .000 4.15 28 0 2 0 0 2 26.0 23 12 2 13 24 100 3.94 1.385 RP Alex Colome 32 2 4 .333 5.40 27 0 10 0 0 2 25.0 28 15 5 12 26 77 5.49 1.600 Pos Name Age W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Randy Dobnak 26 1 6 .143 7.83 13 5 3 0 0 1 43.2 60 38 11 12 25 53 6.19 1.649   Caleb Thielbar* 34 2 0 1.000 4.13 22 0 4 0 0 0 24.0 26 11 3 7 36 101 2.80 1.375   Bailey Ober 25 0 0   3.71 4 4 0 0 0 0 17.0 18 7 3 2 21 113 3.52 1.176   Cody Stashak (10-day IL) 27 0 0   6.89 15 0 1 0 0 0 15.2 16 12 2 10 26 61 3.62 1.660   Lewis Thorpe* (7-day IL) 25 0 2 .000 3.86 4 3 1 0 0 0 14.0 13 6 1 4 5 109 4.24 1.214   Luke Farrell 30 1 0 1.000 2.08 11 0 3 0 0 0 13.0 11 3 1 5 14 202 3.17 1.231   Shaun Anderson 26 0 0   9.35 4 0 0 0 0 0 8.2 13 9 1 5 8 46 4.90 2.077   Griffin Jax (40-man) 26 0 0   8.64 3 0 2 0 0 0 8.1 11 8 4 3 9 49 8.33 1.680   Derek Law 30 0 0   8.53 5 0 3 0 0 0 6.1 11 6 2 6 9 51 7.28 2.684   Juan Minaya 30 0 0   4.26 4 0 2 0 0 0 6.1 5 3 2 3 4 102 7.91 1.263   Devin Smeltzer* (10-day IL) 25 0 0   0.00 1 0 1 0 0 0 4.2 1 0 0 1 3   3.81 0.429   Brandon Waddell* 27 0 1 .000 11.25 4 0 2 0 0 0 4.0 10 5 2 3 1 40 11.42 3.250   Willians Astudillo (40-man) 29 0 0   3.00 3 0 3 0 0 0 3.0 1 1 1 1 0 153 8.51 0.667 Statistically, this is the worst pitching staff we’ve looked at. This rotation is basically a two man rotation out of 5 where the 1977 Twins were basically one. Staffs like the 1977 and 2021 Twins will never lead to a high quality team featuring one  and two viable starters type rotations. Obvious, right?
My argument would be that Falvey and Levine should be trying to get that to 4 or 5 quality starters and not put resources to players like J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Alex Colome or even Josh Donaldson. Donaldson has good qualities but one thing he isn’t is a quality pitcher.
What’s the way forward? I think, based on his 3.70 ERA so far and the virtual impossibility of signing 3 FA quality starters, that they need to re-sign Michael Pineda. They also need to re-sign Jose Berrios. That’s only 2 of 5 quality starters. We have to hope that Maeda rounds back into form. Further the FO is going to have to sign a quality free agent pitcher. Then we have to hope that Bailey Ober builds on what he as started so far. And hope that Barnes, Duran or Balazovic make a breakthrough. There are other good arms.
I’ve pictured below the kinds of pitchers we need in at least 3 or 4 spots. It would be nice to have Christy Mathewson as a Twin but, alas, that’s not possible. He’s my favorite pitcher of all time.
Let me know what you think. My motto is pitching, pitching and more pitching!!!