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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    Once again you name a bunch of guys that did absolutely nothing to deserve promotions in full season ball. Hermsen, Boyd and Waldrop were all sub 7 K/9 guys pretty much their entire MiLB careers. Rainville had some success but there were no illusions that he was dominating before he messed up his arm. They might have had a similar status to Berrios at draft time but Berrios has significantly distanced himself that pack. If that is the best set of comparables that you have against Berrios advancing quickly then you don't even have an argument. Like I said earlier I actually don't think he will advance really quickly. Best case imo is 3 levels in 2 years. I just get sick of the constant complaint that the Twins promote slowly and (insert any young prospect) won't be called up for 4+ years. The Twins are conservative but they haven't had any hot prospects that were held back recently (possibly Sano last year). They have had some fringy guys that got stuck at a level for too long but these were guys that projected more as 4th Of'ers or utility players. He's given up a lot of hits because he has a .400 BAPIP. I think you will see your 'he's given up more than a hit/inning' argument go away as this number declines.
  2. kab21
    We're looking for multiple splits. L/R splits in May for example.
  3. kab21
    The pitch count had to be wrong obviously. I have seen this before in the minors boxscores. Even the opposing pitcher is only at 40 pitches and he threw 6 innings. We won't have to wait too long for Meyer but I'm not sure if we will see him this year. I hope so though.
  4. kab21
    first off the reason that they would try to save extra money is to basically trade that 2nd rd pick for mid/late 1st rd talent. That significantly changes your whole argument. Secondly I don't think they should do that. come out of this draft with one of Appel/Gray/Bryant/Stewart.
  5. kab21
    While Stewart isn't quite at the same tier that Taillon, Bundy or Cole was, he isn't that far away from that type. Latin arms have a poor success rate as above average starters. Relievers are a different story though. I'm still a BPA guy but currently 3 of the top 4 BPA's are pitchers and imo Shipley has made a case to be the 5th although there are several guys in that tier. If Bryant is there (and not Gray/Appel) then I don't think you can pass on that kind of middle of the order bat that could be up for good in 2015.
  6. kab21
    Not even in the minors against more uniform competition are stats everything. I'm typically apply a 50/50 breakdown for stats and scouting. In college and especially HS they mean even less. I am slightly impressed by Bryant hitting a HR more than every other game though with the new composite bats.
  7. kab21
    There's a long time between the 4th and the 43rd pick. There's also a lot of risk that another team could be trying the same thing or that guys don't drop. At this point my armchair scouting is pretty set on the big 4 since i think Stewart has separated himself a little and he matches the Twins needs.
  8. kab21
    You mostly looked at irrelevant stats. SB's are overrated for a slugging corner OF (he's not a CF but could make it work in the majors). A 30 game sample size of stats from someone that has had some family issues (IIRC) and at least one minor injury disrupting his first two months. He's a pure masher that basically destroyed AA last season at age 19/20. However I think buxton and/or Sano will be considered better prospects when they have played in AA/AAA but right now Taveras has played against better comp and retains the top spot (and I agree).
  9. kab21
    Yours is obviously just a one game observation but I have read a few hints that there's a reason Polanco is at 2nd base and that reason isn't Goodrum. Disappointing but he's still one of my faves in the Twins org.
  10. kab21
    I think the unexpected HR's are making things appear better than they are. In his good month he is still striking out way too much AND now not walking enough. I don't have his May L/R splits available but he still appears to be way below average as a LH hitter. I think Hicks can still be a good player but I also think it's more likely that he ends up as a platoon OF'er (the small side) than coming anywhere close to a perennial AS like Hunter.
  11. kab21
    I actually don't think that he's going to fly through the minors but I find your analysis to be incredibly lazy. If you are going to make the claim that this how they handle these guys regardless of talent level then you should have an example of at least one if not several guys as talented as Berrios to back it up. These same things were said about young hitters because the Twins hadn't aggressively promoted them before. For example Arcia and he has moved multiple levels per year debuting just before his 22nd birthday. The same thing was said about Sano and he is probably a lock for a midseason promotion. Same goes for Buxton and possibly even Rosario. If you read the draft threads people are saying the same thing about Stewart. If a player is earning promotions then he will move quicker than this historical precendent of lesser prospects. I also think that a 10.8 K/9 and a 1.6 BB/9 to be fairly dominating.
  12. kab21
    Arcia went deep and Tonkin made his first appearance in ROC. It looks like he allowed an inherited runner score the game winning run. I like Tonkin quite a bit so it's nice to see him one step closer.
  13. kab21
    this is a lazy way of saying I can't make a decision so take a pitcher because it's a position of need. None of us are professional scouts but there seems to be an industry consensus that Bryant is the third best player in this draft. Do you disagree with them?
  14. kab21
    To me, this comes down to three questions.... 1) If Kris Bryant is on the board and Appel and Gray are not, is he the automatic pick or do they go with a college pitcher? The only way they don't go Bryant in this scenario is if they really think Stewart is something special. 2) If Kohl Stewart is on the board (and Appel, Gray and Byant are gone) is he the automatic pick or do this go with a college pitcher? The opposite of the above answer. 3) Can they come out of this fourth pick with ANY position player other than Bryant and we'll still think it was a good move? This place will explode. It's worth remembering that the Twins are working with a lot more data than we have. Gray/Appel, Bryant and Stewart really seem like the top 4 but not even BA, PG, Sickels or anyone else have perfect data on these guys. Not even the Twins...
  15. kab21
    That's kind of my point. You are referencing the Twins past promotion schedules for HS pitchers. The fact is that there hasn't been a HS pitching prospect nearly as talented as Berrios in the last decade or possibly two although one might be slipping my mind. This kind of comparison is like saying that Sano/Buxton will take 4 yrs in the minors because the Twins have promoted other hitting prospects (Parmelee, Hicks and Benson) slowly. Naming one prospect (Taillon) doesn't mean much. Some HS'ers move quickly and some move slowly. Berrios might not have a really high ceiling but most have said that his stuff will play well especially at the lower levels. I don't think he will fly through the minors like some on here but so far he's setting up to move 3 levels in 2 years.
  16. kab21
    The pre-draft BA ranking is an interesting idea. I think at a minimum those guys (esp the Pirates picks) are a lesson against taking a safe, underslot pick.
  17. kab21
    FWIW this is your speculation. It's a deep year apparently and the MLB payroll is down significantly. The last time MLB payroll was significantly down was the year Sano, Kepler and Polanco signed IIRC. People insisted then that draft budgets and salary budgets are separate but I don't think that was a coincidence. We will see but I think the Twins will spend all of it this year. A trade of some of it wouldn't be shocking either in a deadline deal to get a better prospect back though.
  18. kab21
    I don't understand an argument that compares the promotion pace of an inferior prospect to one that is clearly superior. I don't know if Berrios will move two levels this year but I think he will move two levels one year but I'm not sure if it's this year. It sounds like he has some baseball maturity issues and there is a little concern that he is getting hit hard when hitters can put the bat on the ball (.400 BAPIP). But that also means that he has been unlucky and his K and BB rates are amazing.
  19. kab21
    I didn't follow the draft a decade ago but I followed that group as prospects (albeit in hindsight). I remember there were several college pitchers selected for signability reasons. This is one of the reasons that Pirates were an awful franchise with 4 collegiate pitching busts (van bensalphabet, bullington, moskos and lincoln) with one success (Maholm). One interesting bust is Stauffer. He made the majors recently but failed his signing physical and signed way underslot IIRC. They would have been way better off not signing him and getting a pick the following year.
  20. kab21
    He's not a scout. He's a journalist that saw him pitch one game AFAIK.
  21. kab21
    He has had several outings with 90+ pitches through 5IP and a fairly poor strike/ball ratios. He has absolutely awesome stuff but some patience is needed.
  22. kab21
    FIP in the minors is just as good as FIP in the majors. It's not a perfect measure especially since it doesn't normalize HR/FB%. Liam Hendriks has had really good HR/9 rates in the minors so that helps his great FIP's. One reason for Liam's good HR rates is that he's a GB pitcher but they shouldn't be that good. In addition he has had great K:BB rates. If you look at the equation below then he was basically elite since he controlled the 3 major parts of the equation. To be fair to FIP, Liam was also an elite minor leaguer according to ERA also. What is Hendriks problem? He has fringy stuff in the strike zone (low BB's) and so far it has been hit hard at the MiLB level. How does this relate to Meyer? Meyer has a phenomenal K rate although his BB rate is not that great while his HR/9 rate is pretty low. He does get a lot of GB's so that partly explains it but he's probably a little lucky with HR's. The big difference between Meyer's great FIP's and Liam's great FIP's is that Meyer has amazing stuff that shouldn't get smacked around in the majors. The only thing that will hold Meyer back are the control issues that he struggles with. I don't think there should be any rush to get Meyer to the majors this season based on these control issues. FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant FIP | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library
  23. kab21
    My general rule of thumb is that MLB needs shouldn't dictate MiLB promotions. Gibson is still coming back and working on his control. If he is up with the Twins it's possible that he gets hammered due to this and he could start nibbling leading to worse results. Or... The question is whether or not this consistency is actually real or if it is a convenient excuse due to SSS to keep him down until the super 2 deadline.
  24. kab21
    Why in the world would you move Hicks back to leadoff? He still isn't hitting well and if the Twins had literally any other options in CF he would be in AAA.
  25. kab21
    You are talking about 2 completely different levels of prospects when you compare Boyd to Stewart. And you are also talking about a sample size of one. I'm hesitant to take a HS pitcher this high but after the big 3 the Twins are left with a pair of good but not great HS OF'ers, an underrated college pitcher (Shipley), a solid but not great 3B man (Moran) and a HS catcher. At this point I will be disappointed with anyone other than Stewart or Shipley. Trey Ball is a latecomer to the discussion but he requires a lot more projection to become an above avg starter imo.
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