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Jocko87

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Everything posted by Jocko87

  1. I see where they added that. It's good context but completely different markets. The Padres kept the existing cable and satellite deals so there was no dead spot to force a switch. It was Bally on a Tuesday and MLB on Wednesday. Many casual fans probably didn't notice. The Twins are adding twice as many households and in Twins territory, many of those households were completely frozen out or have been bounced around looking for a solution. I think 40k is well within reach. I live out of market so have been on the regular MLB app for years. When I go to my hometown in North Dakota, all traces of the Twins are gone. Blacked out 650 miles from the stadium and satellite being the only way to get an appropriate station for many years. Lots of actual new reach which the Padres didn't really have. I'll buy whatever the add on costs as I travel in the region enough to use it. If they handle this correctly, big if obviously, they can find 40k subscribers outside the Twins Cities alone. There are three thousand one-tap bars in the Dakotas that would sign up in a heartbeat. They need to spend middle reliever money on the Winter Caravan this year and cover some damn ground. Get west of Fargo for crying out loud.
  2. But it only takes a fraction to make a difference. What’s a realistic number of yearly subscribers? Statista had a 2017 survey where it was about 4% across the board, all ages. It’s certainly higher now but 5% of new households is 220k subscribers. Something like 22m dollars. 4.4m is the new reach, what is total reach? What is a reasonable subscription rate? It's cheaper than a single trip to the park.
  3. I'm no expert, but I'm pretty sure you are doing streaming wrong. I've said previously that I'd help anyone get setup to stream games but this might be a next of kin question. I guess the Black Hills in South Dakota is still Rockies country. The portion of Iowa is still concerning but hopefully they can cover it with something. If MLB can figure out how to broadcast everyone in Iowa, they'll be close to having this thing clicked.
  4. Agreed. Headline could be Correa was always the MVP, and then it became really, really obvious. No chance they collapse like that if he's playing.
  5. I read it wrong, too many levels in one year. I had both of them closer to 110. Ober was also making a much larger jump than they would be either way. It doesn't change my opinion much, other than to be more comfortable with the arms in house.
  6. Ober was a big guy too and they took it slow. Zebby would be making a huge jump to get to 140, I think everyone would be delighted with that number. I like the arms too. Arguing over the 5th starter before a single move has been made is a good thing. So many years wondering who the number two guy is. That gives them options, which is what they need for a 7 month season. If Festa or Zebby tears up St Paul, it's a good problem to have. There's a lot of innings to cover.
  7. I think part of leaning on the kids in the rotation is having someone else around to help manage their innings. SWR probably can pitch a full year but Festa, Zebby etc are more likely 120 inning guys. Paddack is my guy for that, for at least the first few months. Then we see what happens.
  8. The contract was earned before he signed it, kinda the only way it works. Just guess how much he was worth this year per Fangraphs estimations? When he was a no good, lousy, injured, tired, bad cowboy hat wearing, mediocre, hittable so and so? $8.3M. For his 1.0 fWAR. $8.3m in a season when nothing went right coming back from injury. We have some sort of weird warped idea of what pitching actually costs. It won't take much to be worth his salary next year. He is one of their best players, you don't have to like it. Again, a regular season grind is different than a postseason stack. He starts, period. They control him for another year and owe it to him and the team to use him to the most advantage possible.
  9. If his arm hasn't fallen off at the end of spring training he makes the team, we can assume. It's a pretty simple 2+2 to know that players without options are higher on the depth chart. He earned the spot when he earned the 7.5m contract. With there being no such thing as too much pitching, we should assume they will handle this the same as almost every other veteran vs rookie situation. Festa et al will be on an Ober build up plan anyway, someone will have to eat the innings they can't. It will take 7-8 starters at a minimum. Chris Paddack, barring his arm falling off, or crazy trade, will be in the starting rotation breaking camp. He could end up in the bullpen anywhere from 1 to 6 months from then. We are not building a playoff roster at this time. The priorities are different. Thank you for coming to my Ted talk.
  10. True, but. It's the only way to get any value out of the player. He's too valuable to just dump, especially for the Twins. I dont totally mind the idea of the whole year in the bullpen but it would signal they don't believe he can start which sends the wrong signal to the trade market. Someone is going to have to Keuchel innings somewhere. If he looks OK at the deadline, deal him. If he looks great, ride him. If he really struggles, off to the bullpen. If he gets injured, call the insurance agent. He starts the year in the rotation simply as the only option that makes sense. The money is spent. Don't cut off options until you are required.
  11. Rebuilding is for losers. Can you imagine these pages if those cheapo Polhads very saying trust the process? Not discussed enough in all this is how close we were to a full rebuild (owner driven) before the first Correa signing. Couple guys not signed and payroll is at Oakland As level. So much of the Minnesota fan base losers mindset can be directly linked to the local media that have been here forever not knowing what actually matters. Here Reusse uses fear words to say they should just do what they did last year. No kidding Patrick. I've been on an island for a long time that payroll is irrelevant if the kids don't come through. Even less relevant if Buck and Correa don't perform injury or otherwise. Payroll can't buy what the Tigers found.
  12. I feel like there is a major clue in this phasing, both for the future of Levine as we have seen but also for the plans for filling the position. New school management trained MBAs don't say MY without a very good reason. It's drilled out of you in modern leadership training.
  13. Yup, ol Carl OPS .600 for the last two months. Cause greed. Let's have some editorial standards please. Click bait ********.
  14. Speaking of dysfunctional organizations. I know the Giants have done really well over the years but the last few months of a former player negotiating deals under a PBO to be fired just reaks of a bigger issue. I can't imagine Levine being interested in stepping into that power struggle but if he did it would cement his role as boy wonder babysitter mercenary. There are worse gigs. He can name his price and stay out of the limelight. He might like it that way.
  15. Haven't seen the interview yet but that was my first thought. Looking at the front office from a corporate structure mindset the spot doesn't make a lot of sense. It's why we don't know who does what and the most important items are fully overlapping. The GM and assistant GM titles probably go away and they add another vice president of picnic baskets or something. Or maybe we get some clarity on who did what. This is also the nature of these jobs. You can only be the right hand man for so long before you have to take a bullet. I've been that guy.
  16. However, it’s become increasingly clear that someone will need to take the fall for the disappointing results in 2024, and Levine, once a hot commodity, appears to be the likely candidate. What is this framing? Someone will need to take a fall? Increasing clear? How? Are we insane? We know nothing about what is happening on the other side of the wall, or what happened in the last two months but we are somehow comfortable with demanding a head on a platter? Such dumb sports fan thinking. I'm glad they don't think with their Reddit brain.
  17. Now do literally every other major development in whatever city you want. This isn't how these numbers work.
  18. The rest of your points are spot on and already happening. I do have to push back on the thought of anyone killing their golden goose over some fake win in a contract, on purpose. They are fully capable of doing it by mistake. Malfeasance/incompetence and all that.
  19. Again, look to golf. The only air that allowed LIV to breath was a "high on Tiger" PGA tour that doesn't seem to have put any effort into what a post Tiger world looked like. It doesn't have to be all Savannah Bananas but MLB is playing chicken with pushing the minors into college and independent leagues. Couple of cool innovations and it will only take one interested sovereign investment fund to decide, "sure, I'll take that". Throw some marketing at it and the kids are gone.
  20. I don't think so. It would be the best way to get a baseball LIV league. Also putting any stock in an NIL involved product is incredibly risky. That system will be drastically different in a couple years.
  21. I can see that, but the result is the same. My problem with it is no billionaire is killing their golden goose on purpose. They have been aware of the TV problem far longer than us. The NFL playing the role of the Titanic is fitting. We all know the story. I imagine it will happen somewhere between games in Cairo and Kazakhstan. NBA salaries aren't exactly self supported. I could got on. It's the modern business failing writ large. Everyone is so focused on growth as the metric rather than running a healthy business. Many companies buy other companies for the illusion of growth to the detriment of the overall business. It's not great if you are a fan, but someone has to pay for these things. You and everyone you know could go to every game and it wouldn't make a dent.
  22. It's bursting right in front of us. It's so big It's hard to tell and will take a long time. Sports gambling is the harbinger of doom. There is no way it's embraced like this if they aren't desperate. Owners in all sports are fully aware that the financial system is a house of cards. The PGA Tour is just a few years ahead of everyone. On the bright side, MLB can now have private equity owners. Completely unrelated, I'm sure.
  23. 2 out of the 3 that are playing this round got bounced and the third is hanging by a thread. They ain't got what the Padres and Tigers got. What the Padres and Tigers got, can't be bought.
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