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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    ERA? Please. How about some W-L or "quality starts"-based conclusions? Pelfrey led the team in FIP, K%, and pitcher WAR, in a season that he made a record recovery from TJ surgery. The best pitcher they had last season and at 29 years old, his next 2 seasons (at around what the Twins paid Nick Blackburn not to play last season, btw) are a great bet for a middle to end of the rotation guy.
  2. Thrylos
    Apples and pineapples (that is wOBA and wRC+ and not isoP or HRs). And Small Sample Size bias on either size (like how many 19, 20 and 21 year olds and 39, 40 and 41 year olds were in the majors) skews the curve on both edges. I suspect that the rest of it (25-35 or so) where there is a significant sample size the variations are between the standard deviation, so all curves are identical. Unless they provide sample size (and it is significant on the edges, like p<0.01 or something), you cannot be confident with the conclusion they are reaching. All it takes is one Trout and one Harper to skew your data that way, if you have an age group size of 2.
  3. Thrylos
    Why trade any one of value within the division. I never got that logic. Especially your best RH power threat who is just entering his prime and the only starting 3B you got on the 40-man roster.
  4. Thrylos
    Spring Training
  5. Thrylos
    Nah. He shops the Adam Levine collection.
  6. Thrylos
    ERA, W-L Thielbar was the best reliever, too, right? Check out his FIP, K%, WAR. Check out his BABIP and stranded% to figure out why the bloated ERA and WHIP. And I like Pelfrey about as much as Ervin Santana for the $ in this team.
  7. Thrylos
    I am adding something to this: Deduno's sample size is ridiculously small to make any comparisons significant here. And since we are here, here is another one to add to the list: Worley: 4.05 ERA/ 3.86 FIP/ 3.97 xFIP, 326.3 IP Much better than Deduno
  8. Thrylos
    I hear the name "Deduno" a lot. Methinks that it will be a (Fort Myers) Miracle if Deduno does not start the season in the DL. Latest reports having him long tossing from 180 feet. For comparison's sake, Johan Santana is ahead of him and he will lose a chunk of 2014. ST starts in about 2 months, I just don't see Deduno ready. Another interesting thing is that there are reports out there that they are still after more pitching. I will not be surprised if the Twins flip Correia too before the season started to make the numbers work...
  9. Thrylos
    Albers
  10. Thrylos
    Pelfrey was the Twins' best pitcher in 2013, in a season when he made a record time comeback from TJ surgery. Got his K% up to 17.9 in the second half of the season. From 2008-2011 he averaged 195.7 IP a season. He hasn't even turn 30 yet. Very similar pitcher to Hughes when healthy. I expect a lot from him the next 2 seasons. All in all a good signing. Not to mention that he is a great clubhouse guy too.
  11. Thrylos
    Luke made the All-Star team because of name recognition. He just started playing the past week or so, 6-7 games in all, I think.
  12. Thrylos
    Actually I believe that Polanco is the long term answer at SS Hard to climb on the Thorpe (I need to see some success against batters who have played for a while and not only against kids who just learning how to use wooden bats) and Kepler (one above average pro season in 4 a top prospect does not make) bandwagons these days. And I still have Sano over Buxton After I have seen Danny Santana play in a few games live, I think that his upside is a utility guy. Lexi Casilla was a better player in all aspects of the game, and I think that this says a lot about Santana. Oh. Felix Jorge not Jorge Felix and I am still waiting to see more from him. Good live arm for sure. Stuart Turner smells like the Drew to me. But I have not seen him play. Might change my mind after ST. Good stuff. It is amazing how strong the system is and how hard it is to make a list like this.
  13. Thrylos
    "all time historic season". I guess you got your metric and it is ERA and W-L or? Did you check his BABIP (.251) by the way? Throw in a ridiculous 5.8% HR/FB and you can see that his "all time historic season" was all time lucky... And it shows.
  14. Thrylos
    Agreed. Still Ryan should be out because he led the team to 2 consecutive 96 loss seasons. Not a single move or a set of moves or non-moves. Just because of the awful results.
  15. Thrylos
    Santana led the major leagues in 2005 in both SIERA and WAR (and a whole bunch of other metrics). FWIW. To answer the previous questions: You can find SIERA in fangraphs. Hard to compare between seasons and really makes no sense for a million reasons other than fantasy (like comparing Walter Johnson's 1919 to Santana's 2005.)
  16. Thrylos
    Hold it Untrue. He has to pass through waivers first to be outrighted. The only time a guy who is outrighted can elect to be a free agent is if he has 5 years in the majors (seniority clause.)
  17. Thrylos
    So what? Really. What Ryan did was to make a 96 loss team to another 96 loss team. Or do IP matter more?
  18. Thrylos
    would be interesting to see what he does. .350 BABIP and 14% HR/FB rates will improve. He led the Twins' starters in K% last season and had FIPs in the 2s and 3s in AAA. And he is 24. His fastball needs fixing for sure. GB/FB rates reversed the last couple seasons (which was not too good with that 14% HR/FB) I wonder how hurt he really was last season too. Wishing him the best other than when he pitches against the Twins...
  19. Thrylos
    Hard to evaluate someone using a single statistic measurement, because no matter how many components it might have, it still cannot tell the whole story. To answer your question, the 3 I like (in no order) are: SIERA (the PE family, xPE, axPE) and FIP/xFIP
  20. Thrylos
    Per LEN3, not Gleeman. He is just linking to LEN's piece.
  21. Thrylos
    And I did not see that coming with Arcia, Doumit, Parmelee Minor league deal with invitation to ST. No roster space needed.
  22. Thrylos
    I did not ever started reading when I noticed that they have Jamey Carroll, Eric Farris, Ray Olmedo, Jeff Clement and Brian Dinkelman listed as Twins. That really helps with credibility... I like fangraphs as a reference of past statistics and complex measurements, but their non-statistical and their predictive stuff leaves a lot to be desired...
  23. Thrylos
    This is a derivative list. Mayo has Santana 12th, so he will be high in a lot of the derivatives. Another example: Sickels got Thorpe 7th so a lot of the derivatives (like Parks' in BP) jumped on that bandwagon. Easy. Imagine trying to make an Astros prospect list from scratch without following the Astros. You look at existing lists and mix and match. That's what most of the National guys do with Twins' lists. That's why all the national lists other than Mayo's/mlb.com, BA's and Sickels' are pretty much worthless.
  24. Thrylos
    Or War and Peace or The Iliad. All those books were great for the time they were written in the context of the time they were written. When Zen and the Art was written this country was in a war that brought a whole bunch of people who did not want to go there back either in body bags or in mental incapacitation and was losing a war for the first time, its president was about to resign before he was impeached, and the thread of a nuclear world war III was very strong. Great time to question truth. Fast forward 40 years and things have changed (maybe.)
  25. Thrylos
    Among the 20 qualified hitters who played at 3B: Based on UZR/150, there were 4 (Chris Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman, Miguel Cabrera, David Freese) equal or worse than Plouffe, Based on RZR there were 9 worse than Plouffe Based on DRS there were also 9 worse than Plouffe So about 1/3 of the players who played 3rd base last season enough to qualify, objectively are worse than Plouffe
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