Thrylos

Darvish, like Dice-K and Nomo, had exactly 2 good seasons. Let's see what the future brings

We all have read it by now. Alex Meyer is working as a substitute teacher during the off-season and makes $63 a day. That is the story. It was first told by David Woods, and Indy Star reporter. The original story is here. Now either Woods or his editor, to make it "more interesting", gave it an interesting title: "Millionaire pitcher Alex Meyer subs for $63/day". Probably "millionaire" refers to his signing bonus when drafted, which was $2 million dollars. No mention to the fact that he might not even make $50,000 a year in baseball and has about $20 food per diem by the team. The story moved to every news outlet in the US and even crossed the ocean, where an Ashley Collman at the Daily Mail, penned this gem. The first sentence of the article: Alex Meyer gets paid $2million as a baseball pitcher, but in his off-season from slugging for the Minnesota Twins, the 23-year-old accepts a meager $63 a day substitute teaching in his hometown And the headline indicates that Meyer is "making $2 million a year". Got to love the press some times...

My answer to the original question (what it would take) would be: a. for the Twins to offer a better contract than others and b. for Tanaka to want to go to Minnesota. And b. might actually be more challenging than one might think, since this transaction has to close within a month of posting, which will make him make his first trip to MPLS January/early February time frame. Not good. Especially if he flies there straight after visiting the Padres, Angels or Dodgers... That said, the Twins should stay away from anything longer than a 3 year contract. The jury on Darvish is still out, but as far as Japanese SPs go, the only pitcher with sustained success for more than 2 seasons (which was the cap on Dice-K and Nomo) is Kuroda who is no ace by any means. I really do not trust the level of competition in Japan. Nishioka had a .346/.423/.482 slash line there when the Twins signed him. Clearly the level of competition is AA-like. And if the Twins want a AA star, who is more than a year younger than Tanaka, potentially has better stuff, and strikes out slightly more (28.1% vs 27.1% K%) batters than Tanaka, all they have to do is to look on the New Britain and the AFL roster last season. And he will come pretty cheap for the next 6 seasons...

Actually the correct measurement for that is IP/appearance because if a pen has used 10 different pitchers to pitch 400 innings would result to more tired pitchers than if used 15 different pitchers to pitch 420 innings, correct? As far as IP/Appearance goes, if you round down to one decimal (more decimals does not make sense), you will see that pretty much the whole league is at the same place: Astros 1.2 Pirates 1.2 Athletics 1.1 Blue Jays 1.1 Mariners 1.1 Marlins 1.1 Nationals 1.1 Padres 1.1 Rockies 1.1 Royals 1.1 Twins 1.1 Yankees 1.1 Angels 1.0 Braves 1.0 Brewers 1.0 Cardinals 1.0 Cubs 1.0 Diamondbacks 1.0 Dodgers 1.0 Giants 1.0 Indians 1.0 Mets 1.0 Philies 1.0 Rangers 1.0 Rays 1.0 Reds 1.0 Tigers 1.0 White Sox 1.0 I think that the difference of 0.2 innings in spread (less than a batter faced) is insignificant. There goes another myth about "tired pens..."

That is a current MLB network analyst and HOF hopeful pitching in the gif. One Mr. John Smoltz. Not Pelfrey.

That is a 2011 article and indeed in 2011 and 2012 when with the Mets he threw a cutter, in addition to the slider. Fangraphs also has him throwing both pitches those seasons with the cutter being the least favorite of the two. That cutter was 2-3 mph faster than his slider then. He did not throw a single cutter in 2013. Different pitches http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5543/11571283035_599b390966_o.jpg Edit: This is a great gif that shows the difference between a cutter and a slider. And this slider is a lot like Pelfrey's (and Harvey's; with more vertical than horizontal movement) . Hope it works. Cutter on the left panel, slider on the right panel: http://i203.photobucket.com/albums/aa173/xvue84/pitching%20clips/smoltzcutterVSslider.gif

Comparing an OF to Parmelee is pretty damning. Especially a young outfielder. I am not as high on Kepler as most people are. He had one out of 4 above average professional seasons (2012 in Etown.) His 2013 numbers in Cedar Rapids (as a 20 year old) were .237/.312/.424. Compare those to 20 year old Trevor Harrison (another 1B long term candidate) who is in the same age in the same team last season (.253/.366/.416) or 21 year old Adam Walker in the same team last season ( .278/.319/.526) or a then 21 year old (a year older) Kennys Vargas in the same league in 2012 (.318/.419/.610). And I should not mention Brian Buxton (who is younger) In my opinion it is pretty clear that there is better talent around his age group than Kepler at this point both at OF and at 1B. I think that the Twins should be smart and sell high as long as he is still ranked up there in prospects lists...

I agree that velocity does not equal quality, as far as the fastball goes. Look at the slider velocity chart and the 12 pitchers who have velocities in the neighborhood of Pelfrey's and give me one single mediocre pitcher. The issue is that he is not throwing it quite enough. As far as luck and wSL/C goes, it is the other way around, because wSL/C does not normalize for BABIP (so I take those measurements with a huge grain of salt.) His BABIP was the second highest in the majors last season and I suspect that is reflected. The other reason I do not like the wPITCH/C measurement is that it is not significant enough in low count pitches. Example: in 2013 Pelfrey threw 2727 pitches. 10% or so or 272 are sliders. In the wSL/C (that bundles per 100 pitches, that is what the C is) the N=2.7 Not good. Think about it similarly to UZR/150, which needs a few seasons worth of data to be significant. Despite the high BABIP and the low confidence on the sample size, the 2013 wSL/C was 0.02 (league average) and his best pitch... Third (and really important) : Cannot compare slider (or curveball or screwball for that matter) before and after TJ surgery. Different elbows. Pelfrey's slider before TJ averaged around 84 mph. Last season it was 86.3. Totally different beasts. So past performance and wSL/C values do not matter.

Depends. Jeannie granted unlimited wishes IIRC...

Depends on how you are counting... That said, I'd rather have the Twins have Correia out there every 5th day than Diamond. Worley can get the 5th starter job and Deduno will likely start on the DL and with a month of rehab or so, all will play out come trading deadline. I don't think that Correia will be a Twin come August first, might actually be gone much earlier, which will open the door for Gibson and/or a rehabbed and healthy Deduno to replace him. And if Correia pulls a Marquis/Blackburn earlier, the Twins can act accordingly... I really don't see much conflict here, other than potentially having Diamond start the season in the pen as the mop up guy, pushing Swarzak to the Pressly/Roenicke role, which might not be a bad thing IMHO...

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/2547-Five-reasons-that-the-Twins-re-signing-of-Mike-Pelfrey-could-be-a-steal

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch --- The major priority of the Minnesota Twins' General Manager, Terry Ryan, has been to re-build a rotation that has been at the bottom of the major leagues in pretty much every statistical category in 2014. There is a general agreement that the rotation was pretty much "a mess" in 2013 and needed fixing. There is also the general impression that the Twins' pen was one of the strengths of the team and it is better left alone. However, this impression is false because in 2013 the Twins' pen ranked: 17th out of 30 MLB teams as far as ERA goes 17th out of 30 MLB teams as far as FIP goes 17th out of 30 MLB teams as far as SIERA goes 8th out of 30 MLB teams as far as WHIP goes 19th out of 30 MLB teams as far as K% goes In other words, the Twins' pen, which compared to the Twins' rotation seemed great, when compared to the rest of the major league pens is proven to be average at best. Busted myth number one: The Twins' pen was not great in 2013 and, while it might have been a bright point in 2013 compared to the rest of the team, it does not cut the mustard compared to the rest of league. There is a lot of room for improvement and I suspect that Terry Ryan will address before Spring Training, since that will go a long way for the Twins to be competitive in 2014. After the recent additions of new and returning starting pitchers there have been arguments that the Twins have too many starting pitchers and there is a logjam or pitchers on the Twins' roster. I thought that it might be a good time to take a breath and look at what the Twins have on their 40-man roster as far as pitching goes, and see whether this argument is true or not. Here is the Twins' 40 man roster (alphabetically) broken down in groups (players in bold are out of options): Group A: Starting pitchers with no options signed to sizeable contracts the last 2 seasons. Kevin Correia (RHSP) Phil Hughes (RHSP) Rick Nolasco (RHSP) Mike Pelfrey (RHSP) Group B: Relief pitchers with no options signed to sizeable contracts the last 2 seasons or offered arbitration. Jared Burton (RHRP) Brian Duensing (LHSP/RP) Glen Perkins (LHRP) Anthony Swarzak (RHSP/RP) Group C: Starting pitchers with no options with small contacts who played in the majors for more than 3 seasons. Sam Deduno (RHSP) Scott Diamond (LHSP) Vance Worley (RHSP) Group D: Starting and relief pitchers with options with small contacts who played in the majors for at least one season. Andrew Albers (LHSP) Casey Fien (RHRP) Kyle Gibson (RHSP) Kris Johnson (LHSP) Ryan Pressly (RHRP) Caleb Thielbar (LHRP) Michael Tonkin (RHRP) Group E: Starting and relief pitchers with options with small contacts who never played in the majors. Logan Darnell (LHSP) Edgar Ibarra (LHRP) Trevor May (RHSP) Broken down this way, the perceived logjam of Twins' staring pitchers becomes pretty clear: The Twins usually have a 12 man pitching staff. They currently have 4 starters and 4 relievers (groups A and who are pretty much guaranteed a job. This opens 4 more positions, one in the rotation and 3 in the pen. If you assume that the Twins value all pitchers in Group C who are out of options, they have the space to find them all a major league job, as well as allow another pitcher, likely from Group D or potentially outside the organization, to gain a rotation or bullpen position. The rest of the players will provide depth in AAA and be there in case of emergency or potentially be offered in trades to fill additional needs, like position players. Busted myth number two: There is no pitching logjam on the Twins' roster. In other words, the Twins do have a lot of pitching depth in their 40-man roster, but they are not in a logjam situation where they cannot accommodate all their pitchers without options on their 25-man roster. And this assumes that Samuel Deduno who is recuperating from double (labrum and rotation cuff) shoulder surgery is available to start the season, which is an extremely optimistic approach right now. While it is too early to name names to complete the rotation and the pen, because changes will likely happen before spring training, this early clearly the Twins are not in any sort of a pitching logjam and also have plenty of options. http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7058/6927661912_db27f32dcc_z.jpg

Rewind a year ago. Substitute "Dozier" for "Hicks" and "2B" for "CF" and you got the answer about where Hicks will start the season. Unless he shows up in awful shape in ST. The Twins get nothing by having Hicks at AAA at this point.

Perlozzo was well liked in Philly and the only reason he was let go was the managerial change. Sandberg wanted to bring his own people. He is a good guy. Great signing.

All of them are great stories, but here is the question: Do they ever make it in the bigs (other than as September call ups) in a team that is competing for the World Series? Doubtful. The fact that they did, speaks more about the horrible shape the Twins have been. Likely not a single one of them will make the 2014 Twins' team (and that would not be a bad thing)

I still think that Hicks makes the team out of Spring Training. Not much sense in keeping him at AAA as a 24 year old.

You lost me with this: The above is a suburban legend. Here is how the Twins' pen ranked in 2013: 17th out of 30 MLB teams as far as ERA goes 17th out of 30 MLB teams as far as FIP goes 17th out of 30 MLB teams as far as SIERA goes 8th out of 30 MLB teams as far as WHIP goes 19th out of 30 MLB teams as far as K% goes Pretty much in the middle or middle low half. Not "one of the best" by any means. The Twins' pen still needs work. It was better than the rotation, but that does not say much. It was mediocre...

Here: Hear it straight from the horse's mouth (5 days ago, after all the signings)

I would add at least Swarzak, K. Johnson and Duensing to the list because they all were told that they will compete for a spot. Fien and Pressly have options left in the pen, Roenicke is gone so there is room for all 5 pitchers (Deduno, Diamond, Duensing, Swarzak, Worley) without options in this group. Let's look at the career numbers of those 5 (I even include ERA ) as starters: Deduno: 4.09 ERA, 1.433 WHIP/.283 BABIP, 15.3% K%, 1.32 K/BB Diamond: 4.43 ERA, 1.405 WHIP/.304 BABIP, 10.9% K%, 1.92 K/BB Duensing: 4.57 ERA, 1.428 WHIP/.320 BABIP, 15.2% K%, 2.38 K/BB Swarzak: 5.79 ERA, 1.507 WHIP/.316 BABIP, 12.7% K%, 2.05 K/BB Worley: 4.12 ERA, 1.449 WHIP/.334 BABIP, 18.1% K%, 2.37 K/BB Got to love the people who think that Duensing was a "failed" starter and think that Deduno is the best of the group and exalt Diamond's 2012. ERA-aside, Duensing's numbers are better overall. I think that the job will be won in ST, with the 3 losing pitchers from this group not named Deduno (who will start in the DL) in the pen or traded. If I were to hand a job on paper before ST, I'd say that it is Worley's to lose, unless they want a lefty in the rotation and then it should be Duensing's...

And all 3 Right handed and with Fryer not having much of flexibility to play elsewhere? I really don't see them carrying 3 in the 25 man roster. And I suspect that the emergency C will not have to be Escobar these days, but that guy at 1B who may handle it better if needed.

That would be Herrmann

Colabello refused to play to Korea. Back to step 1. They still need a spot on the 40 man roster and it might be Fryer

Actually it is the opposite, if you sign Pelfrey who had a horrible .337 BABIP because of the likes of Willingham and Doumit and Parmelee & Co in the corner OF positions, you got to get rid of them to make your team successful... Am I missing something here?

Totally agreed. I don't care about players getting along and being complacent and being ok with being losers (try to find and replay Cuddyer's postgame interview after the Twins lost game 163 to Thome and the White Sox) That was my point. Desire to win and not accepting losing is the key. And the Twins for the last 20 years do not care. Heck, they lost 99+96+96 and blamed it all on Jerry and Stelly and gave a whole bunch of promotions to the front office.