Thrylos

About that Plouffe/Parmelee discussion: When was the last time that Terry Ryan DFA'd/cut/released a first round draft pick who have reached the majors? They will both be given opportunities. I like Plouffe as a corner OF more than I liked Cuddyer when that move was made. And Plouffe will move there as soon as Sano is up. Parmelee's future is a tad trickier, because with the Kubel signing it gets really complicated even if Doumit is toast, assuming that Kubel will share the DH role with Willingham (which should happen.) With Arcia and Mauer both LHBs there is just not much space for Parmelee other than the Kubel spot.

Agreed about this being the first time that Ryan took actual risks. I suspect that despite what Pohlad is saying pubicly, Ryan might got a gun on his head to win or else this season (and he should with these horrible seasons they have had.) Agreed about position players as well. I think that they will get a back up catcher and maybe another bat or two, but they need to fix the corner OF defense (i.e. Willingham at DH or gone, Doumit gone, Colabello gone, Mastroianni gone with Presley as the 4th OF/PR type and Parmelee fighting Kubel for the LH DH job) But they need to clean a lot of the AAAA guys out of there as well and I hope that this will start to happen after the holidays... I eventually see Plouffe moving to an OF position and being at least as good with the glove as Cuddyer was when Sano gets up for good.

Here is the issue I got with this logic: I kinda agree that from those 3 Worley is more likely to be on the 25 man roster (but I think that he will fight with Swarzak for that number 5 spot and the loser will be the swing man). Where do you stash the other 2? Deduno you stash on the DL till June/July. Diamond will not go through waivers... It will not be a great loss by any means (you got Kris Johnson who is at least comparable if not better, and Logan Darnell, and Pat Dean -not on the 40-man, in AAA if need.) Where it might get really interesting (and I hope it does) is if Meyer and/or Gibson have a phenomenal spring training...

Got to add more to the mix. This guy for sure, since he set that goal himself (and because Ryan said so). Kris Johnson, because Ryan said so (and because he is better than Albers and Diamond.) Also Duensing (because Ryan said so too) On the other hand, I expect Albers to not be on the roster much longer (as soon as Pelfrey becomes official) and things to happen before the end of February (like trades) that will change the picture here. The more I dig into the Deduno situation (dual labrum and rotator cuff surgery; and barely started to long toss now) the more I am thinking DL-60 and ready around July, so I really doubt that he will be part of the equation to start the season. But this whole conversation is better to happen in a couple of months because for sure there will be changes in the personnel by then, so now it is a tad premature...

Late bloomer? See above. He was injured every of the last 7 seasons, losing major time and having 2 major surgeries. He never bloomed. Just flashes....

He is under contract to play for them in 2014 and 2015. If he tears his rotator cuff, stuff happens. Ask Bo Jackson. No basis of legal action. And having a fit and demanding a trade, in addition of not being culturally ok in Japan, would have no effect to him being under contract until 2015 and not able to play elsewhere without his teams' permission.

Healthy? Here: Had Right Rotator Cuff and Labrum surgery August of 2013 Missed part of 2013 (ST and 5 days) with Groin injury Missed 45 days of 2012 with Right Elbow injury Missed 18 days of 2011 with Groin injury Missed 111 days of 2010 with Right Elbow injury (inflammation) Missed 22 days of 2009 with hip flexor injury Missed all of 2008 with Tommy John Surgery recovery Missed 45 days of 2005 with Right Shoulder injury

Yes. Because the contract would be an MLB player contract and has to be according the CBA. And according the CBA to get a cut you have to be a player representative (agent.) and there is a list of approved agents by the players' union (which does not include NPB teams as agents last I checked )

Actually this morning I sat down and wrote 5 reasons why this deal could be a steal for the Twins, and it is too long to reiterate them all here, that's why the link (and one of the 5 is what Nick mentions: His visible improvement as he got further away from the surgery) but another was that the risk was very small for the Twins. To put the risk into perspective: This is exactly what the Twins paid Nick Blackburn not to pitch in 2013. How much did that hurt the Twins? Not. That. Much.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- Late last week it was communicated, but not officially announced that the Minnesota Twins have reached agreement with Mike Pelfrey for a 2 year contract. The contract is for a base amount of $5.5 million per season and with the potential of additional $3.5 million in incentives through the life of the contract. Additional details about the incentives will be announced when the signing will be official. There has been a lot of noise in Twins' Territory about this signing, and most of it was negative. People look at Pelfrey's 5-13 record, accompanied by a 5.19 ERA and by the long time that Pelfrey took between pitches and wonder why the Twins re-signed a guy who is perceived as no better then what they already have. I have always been a Mike Pelfrey fan and here are the reasons why his re-signing could be a steal for the Twins. 1. The Tommy John situation and already achieved improvement Pelfrey threw in his first real game a record 10 months after his surgery. To put it into perspective, Fransisco Liriano had his Tommy John Surgery on November 6, 2006 and pitched his first spring training game on March of 2008. Kyle Gibson had his on September of 2011 and pitched his first game on March of 2013. 2013 was a tale of 2 halfs for Pelfrey, even by the crude ERA measurement: His ERA by month was: April 7.66, May 5.90, June 4.66, July 3.25, August 3.60 and September 7.45. In other words, if he took 13 months to recover and ignore April and May, those are pretty good numbers. His September ERA (also aided by a .431 BABIP) could have been a product of fatigue. He finished the season with a 17.9% K% in the second half, which is really encouraging and easily led the Twins' starting pitchers. If one uses advanced metrics, he also led the Twins starters in FIP (3.99) and WAR (2.1); and those are full season and not second half only values 2. He actually has excellent stuff. We all know of Pelfrey's fastball that sits at 92-93 and touches mid 90, easily the highest velocity of the Twins' 2013 rotation. Here is something very little known: He has a few other weapons that are rarely mentioned. I took all 2013 starting pitchers who pitched more than 150 innings in 2013 and sorted them by Slider Velocity. This is the resulting table: http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5530/11419741106_166f96f99a_o.jpg As you can see, Mike Pelfrey has the 7th hardest slider in the majors. And this is big news. Looking at the names surrounding him, I cannot see a single name that Twins' fans would not be ecstatic to have. However, the other obvious thing from this list, is that he has not been throwing his slider enough (only 9.9% of the time) and mostly relies on his fastball (72.6%) of the time, unlike his peers in this list. I hope that it is elbow rehabilitation related and the further that he is removed from surgery, the more he will trust his elbow with the slider, like his peers. In addition, to the Fastball and Slider, he has a mid 80s Split Finger pitch that he throws as a change up and a slow mid-70s Curve, that last season he threw only about 10% of the time each. 3. He was hurt by the Twins' defense. Again, I took all starters in the majors who pitched more than 150 innings and sorted them by BABIP, high to low and I also indicate WHIP. Here is the resulting table: http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5515/11419724685_8f3ca87e68_z.jpg As you can see, Mike Pelfrey had the second worst BABIP in the majors. Normalize his WHIP for a league average BABIP and becomes close to Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson (normalized) levels. Why such a high BABIP? If you look at balls in play, he ranks 35th lowest (of the 96 pitchers who pitched more than 150 innings in 2013) in the percentage of line drives surrendered with 20.8%, which suggests that balls were not hit that hard. His fly ball percentage 36.0 % is the 35th highest in the same group. When you are a fly ball pitcher and have a combination of Willingham, Parmelee, Doumit, Arcia and Colabello at two out of three outfield positions, you are about to have a high BABIP and a lot of outs will become singles and doubles. Corner OF defense is something the Twins will have to address in 2014, in order to be successful. 4. He has a lot of intangibles on his side. Pelfrey will not turn 30 until next month. He is in his prime and will be during the duration of the contract. He does not have a true change up, but has Bobby Cuellar around for 2 years and is young enough to do so, if he wants to add one to his repertoire (and it will be a good idea.) As I indicated here, yes, he was a human rain delay, but so were his teammates and this was an aberration from previous seasons, adding a full extra 3 seconds between pitches. I don't know whether that is related to shaking off secondary pitches and preferring the fastball because of the elbow, as shown above, but I suspect that it will improve next season. For what is worth, my math predict continuous improvement for Pelfrey, and my analysis on who the Twins should target in free agency had him (and Phil Hughes) in the list of 8. Also, he is a stellar clubhouse guy, a trait that has to be mentioned. At every stop in his career, teammates, managers and coaches have the best to say about Pelfrey. 5. The monetary risk is not very much; this is a very small contract comparatively. The annual value of Pelfrey's contact is $5.5 million if he does not meet the incentives. To put the Twins' risk in dollars in perspective: $5.5 million is the exact amount the Twins paid Nick Blackburn not to pitch in 2013.Also, if you believe in WAR-based monetary value, according to fangraphs, Mike Pelfrey's contribution to the Twins in 2013 (a down season) was worth $10.7 million dollars... The real point here is that the Twins will assume the risk they had when they had Nick Blackburn in 2012 and 2013.

And successful surgery tonight. Feel better Seth!

Andre Gallaraga did not have a concussion bad enough to make him a shadow of his former self and close to replacement level for 3 seasons...

Did not in 2012

I don't disagree with you on that at all. I am just trying to get into Ryan's decision making process... FWIW, I thought that Gibson belonged to the majors last June.

You can make the exact same argument for Pelfrey. Deduno's line drive % is 20.3%, Pelfrey's 20.8%. Pretty much identical based on sample size. Deduno's HR/FB rate was 10.3%, Pelfrey's 7%. So really, hitters made weaker contact from Pelfrey (who happens to be more of a fly ball pitcher and if you have the likes of Willingham, Parmelee, Doumit, Colabello et al at the OF, you will end up having the second highest BABIP in the majors for pitchers who pitched more than 150 innings...)

I think that the Twins do not feel that Meyer is ready yet. I also feel that they want Gibson to be in AAA to start the season. I also have the feeling that Correia (and/or even Pelfrey) can be trade bait come mid season. They are both signed for $5.5M/yr contracts that might be a bargain based on what is going on these days. Nolasco and Hughes are different story and do not belong in this discussion. Keep those 2, add Meyer, Gibson and another arm (Worley? May?) in a year or 2 and you are really in business...

Worley is a different story but, Deduno is 30 and will turn 31 during the season Pelfrey is 29 will turn 30 soon Hughes is 27 and will turn 28 during the season Nolasco turned 31 3 days ago Where do you see the "older, mediocre" pitching? All 3 are better than Deduno (who pitched less than 200 career innings in the majors) and only Nolasco is months older

Holy cow. Do you really mean this? How do you measure "better"? ERA, W-L, QS ? he has the second lowest FIP in the team, second in K%, close to last in K/BB and he is injury prone. And what he did in the WBC and other exhibition games is akin to what people are doing in the Winter Leagues. Add to that, that he is going to be 31, add to that, that there is no way he is ready by opening day after the shoulder surgery and....

you realize that the 25ish HRs would be close to his career high, right? I think that the Steamer projections: .276/.345/.461 19 HR, 49 BB, 553 PAs might actually be optimistic. [TABLE=class: rgMasterTable] [TR=class: rgRow grid_projections_show] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

.194/.227/.365, 59 OPS+: Arencibia in 2013 .198/.270/.279, 53 OPS+: Butera in 2012

Here is some clarification and details about the system that has been agreed upon between the MLB and NPB: - It will be in place for the next 3 years - A NPB team decides when to post someone but all postings have to be made between 11/1 and 2/1 - A NPB team sets an amount for the posting (max is $20 million - and can be paid in installments based on the posting amount) - All teams that are willing to pay that $20 million are free to negotiate with the posted player and the posted player is free to select the team of his choice. - All negotiations have to conclude within 30 days from the posting (i.e. the latest by 3/2) - posted players who have not agreed with MLB teams cannot be posted in the same off-season but their NPB team can post them the next season. - posting fees do not count towards luxury tax, contracts do. So, in other words, it works just like with MLB and MiLB and Cuban free agents, with the additional posting fee obligations to the NPB team, which will get paid after agreement is reached with the player. Fair and just for the players, like the MLB, MiLB and Cuban free agents, and because there will be more salary $ and less posting $, teams like the Yankees and Dodgers will have luxury tax issues, giving more opportunities to the Twins' of the world, if of course are willing to spend market rate for players, and if of course Japanese players would like to live and work in Minneapolis and not other places.

One can argue on whether or not a FIP-based was has problems, but my point was not that. My point was that (for good or bad) at one place at fangraphs, sets Pelfrey's value at $10M plus, while at another place argues that $5.5M is too much. Consistency. Either or. Cannot have both.

Fun comments. Here are some replies: - I have seen Santana play this season several times. I think that his ceiling is a utility player in the majors, thus the ranking. I am pretty certain that Polanco will be given every opportunity to make it at SS and he can make it - Ibarra? Career FIP 4+ in the minors does not a top 40 prospect make, regardless of inclusion on the 40-man roster. - I still have not bought in on Thorpe (or Sulbaran who is absent from this list) hype. I want to see more. - Romero dominated AA last season (.355/.429/.710). He has been putting close to .800 OPS every season the last 3 in AA and AAA and his isoP has been more than .155 each of those seasons. - There is no comparison between DJ Hicks and Kennys Vargas. Vargas is much further along and has much more raw power. People might drool about Sano's power, but people who actually watched them both in Fort Myers, know that Vargas has more power than Sano. Vargas is 4 months younger than Hicks, is a switch hitter, and in his half season in Beloit (2012) hit .318/.419/.610 (that's close to .300 isoP) while Hicks hit .297/.355/.494 in his half season in Cedar Rapids (2013). I like Hicks a lot, but he is not close to Vargas who might actually be MLB ready in 2015. There is a projection out there that has him hitting .233/.292/.421 24 HRs as a major leaguer now. Those are Plouffe/Willingham numbers.

Got to love ERA-based analysis... especially from the same place that lists Pelfrey at 2.1 WAR with a $10M+ value in 2013