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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    I think that it would be very difficult to translate that into print. B-R does an incredible job with this, with sortable lists of all organization position players (by position and by level) and pitchers (by L or R, starter reliever and level), over more than 20 categories. But it is somewhat hidden. You can find the 2013 Twins organization position player list here, and the pitchers here. Truly great tool and I am sure that it will not translate well into print... Seth's (and Cody and Jeremy's now) handbook is getting better year after year. I have been getting them since the first year (the pink one - I think) and every year there is a noticeable set of additions and the price has stayed about the same. Major kudos to all 3 of you and I am sure that next season you will add some more features to it. I really cannot make any specific requests, because I know that you all have day jobs and this is a labor of love and I suspect that you barely break even (or make like 10 cents an hour for the time you put in it.) I think it would be unfair to ask you to write about stuff you don't enjoy writing under these circumstances. Just keep doing what you are doing guys, it has been great. Only one request: Keep it portable and small. You cannot believe how many of those handbooks I have seen every Spring Training by the bleachers on the side fields...
  2. Thrylos
    According to at least that one scout type, Kepler has a utility/bench type ceiling. Plenty of room on a bench. He does not sound that special and his numbers so far are not that special. A single above average pro season in four.
  3. Thrylos
    Lot's of batting averages, HRs and RBIs in the piece, but I think that his conclusion is somewhat intriguing: Would love to know what he means by "prime utility player", but I suspect that he has Micheal Young in mind more than Jamey Carroll. On the other hand he says multiple times that he will be a bench player either LF or 1B. Still I think that the Twins should sell high, while his stock is high...
  4. Thrylos
    Plouffe will never block Sano. If Plouffe hits, he can move in a corner OF position in 2014.
  5. Thrylos
    The Twins system is really really deep. Does not surprise me that they have 8 prospects in the top 101. Simple math says that the average team should have 101/30 = 3.4 prospects in the top 101 if all things were equal. About a third of the teams will have about 2 prospects ( that's 20), another third about 3 prospects (that's 50) and the rest 50 prospects will be divided among the top 10 systems. The Twins system has prospects in the 20s and 30s that would be on top 10 of other systems. Gilmartin is a good case. He was the Braves' 10th best prospect for 2014 according to the BA. In my top 40 list that was made before he joined the Twins, he'd probably be in the mid to high 20s. And the Braves have actually a system that would be in the middle 10 vs the bottom 10 IMHO. So, it is easy to see the Twins having 8 prospects in that list. I do not agree that all of those 8 (particularly Thorpe) are top 100 type talent yet, but I would include Polanco in the top 100 for sure (and I think that he is like number six in my list of Twins' prospects)
  6. Thrylos
    Nah. Cannot really provide more, other that a reference to the Oliver's projection (that was done in a similar way, with comparables, but with many comparables and longer equations ) He projects this line for Sano if he were to play in the majors in 2014: .238/.315/.517 143 G, 600 PA, 37 HR, 80 R, 101 RBI, 55 BB, 210 K (and .309 BABIP and 4.5 WAR) I'd take that line with the Twins for 2014. Over at fangraphs Oliver has a 5 year projection that has him hit 51 HR with 128 RBI and 7.6 WAR in 2018 with a .269/.354/.634 slash line. That's before he reaches his prime too. Bonds' territory. And scary, most people do not think he is the best Twins' prospect... But projections are just fancy (and fun) math exercises His BABIP is comparable to Stanton's who is a slow power hitter as well (HRs are not Balls in Play btw) and a speedier guy like Harper will have a higher BABIP.
  7. Thrylos
    Not much of a guess. Parks listed his Twins' top 10 prospects as: CF Byron Buxton 3B Miguel Sano RHP Alex Meyer RHP Kohl Stewart C Josmil Pinto RHP Jose Berrios 2B/CF Eddie Rosario LHP Lewis Thorpe ------------------------ RHP Felix Jorge 2B Jorge Polanco on this 11/18 piece. So, unless he changed his mind, we kinda know who his top 8 Twins' prospects are...
  8. Thrylos
    Still lots of off-season left and I am optimistic that the Twins will add a couple of position players by March. The way this off-season has been going for the Twins, it almost seems that there were "or else..." type meetings behind closed doors early October...
  9. Thrylos
    BINGO! (but I think it is free) The other inane thing about this, is to try to judge off-seasons with 3 months plus left before opening day and arguably the top 5 SP FAs and a bunch of position player FAs still out there...
  10. Thrylos
    They picked the same Cafardo piece in Boston Globe the MLBTR picked. Like MLBTR their info is second hand. Here is what Cafardo writes about Johan (from the linked above article) : Johan Santana, LHP, free agent — Santana is getting closer to making a decision on a minor league deal with a team. There’s been some speculation about the Twins since Santana still resides in Fort Myers, Fla., where the Twins have spring training. The Red Sox, who also train in Fort Myers, passed. But a small-market team such as the Astros could also have some interest. Santana is just trying to get back pitching and prove himself again. Apparently at some point the "closeR" became "close" in both of those second hand sources. I don't even think that he threw off a mound this off-season, FWIW. I'd love it if the Twins sign him to MiLB and he certainly will put some rear ends on seats. Why not. But, I just don't think that anything is happening in 2013... Per Doogie (within the last week or so), the Twins have not made an offer. Earlier in the off-season it was reported out of NY that Santana was looking for a MLB. I suspect that nobody is thinking of that, so he might have changed his mind.
  11. Thrylos
    Ervin or Johan? Where did you see that? In his Sunday column Cafardo speculated that Johan might like to return to the Twins because his home is at Fort Myers, but that's about all the noise from the Johan Santana front. I think that MLBTR may have picked that up as well.
  12. Thrylos
    Agreed. Myers, Stewart, Gibson, Nolasco, Gonsalves/Eades/Baxendale/May/Berrios/Thorpe/Felix Jorge come 2016 a nice rotation makes....
  13. Thrylos
    I totally agree. It just blows my mind that there has been so much discussion and discourse about the AAA catcher. At least last season, the Twins used him where he belonged so at least in 2013 Butera was not a big deal. When Gardy started him in times of bilateral weekness, it was a different story, but that was not 2013. That's why players like him and Punto were polarizing: They were used in ways they should not have been used by the manager (who should be the polarizing figure instead of players of limited abilities...)
  14. Thrylos
    Got to love it when one of the top stories of the year is the trade of the starting AAA non-prospect catcher. Wonder if "Eric Fryer traded" will be a top 2014 story
  15. Thrylos
    Not sure that it was a lost year per se. Trying year definitely, but hopefully not lost if lessons were learned by both Hicks and the Organization. Few random numbers that make me hopeful: 91: OPS+ as a RHB .146: isoP as a LHB & RHB (that's up there at Doumit/Willingham levels) .241: BABIP (for the type of player he is should be 100 points higher; was .315 in AAA in 2013 and in the mid 300s all his career) .231/.362/.641 (even with .174 BABIP) : his numbers against the 12 LHSP he faced in the majors. I am sure that there are lessons to learn here and (aside from the beaten to death switch hitting situation) from what I see, the biggest issue he faced all season was to make successful adjustments at the plate and change his approach depending on the pitcher. And I think that this is experience. He never met this quality (and variety) of pitching in the minors and he will not if he spends 2014 there. So for him to figure it out, he should be playing CF most of the days and Presley can rest him against tough righties. One good sign: He did not take frustration from his PAs to the field with him. One bad sign: Seems to care too much about golf and not baseball during the off-season. If I were him, I'd be spending time in cages with coaches and not on greens...
  16. Thrylos
    Heck, after the Royals sold that team and now that the Railroad and Buffett are gone as owners, maybe that would be a team the Twins should target for their AAA affiliate as well... Bet you won't mind
  17. Thrylos
    There is room for a lot of players on the Twins. Numbers: Last season they made $215M. Add $25M for the new TV $. This is $240 M. 52% of that is $125 M. They are sitting around $80 M or so now. So they can spend about $40 M a season more without blinking. They can fit 2 Cano-type contracts. But would overpaying for Tanaka would be the best investment at this point? I am not sure.
  18. Thrylos
    Hold it for a sec. The current Iowa (Des Moines) team is a AAA Pacific Coast League. No such a thing as a AA PCL team. AA leagues are the Eastern League (where the New Britain Rock Cats play) mainly at the North East US, the Southern League, mainly in the South East US north of FL and the TX league, in TX, AR, AZ and a team (Cards affiliate) in S MO. That is the closest to the Twin Cities AA League. Affiliated AA leagues should not be confused with the independent (unaffiliated) American Association League that is mainly in the Midwest (St Paul Saints are part of it). For a team to change affiliates no consent from other MLB clubs is needed. Affiliate contracts last so long. When they expire the MLB teams and the MiLB teams are free to find new affiliations (like the Twins did with Cedar Rapids last season.) So e.g. if the Cubs' contract with the IA MiLB team expires and the Twins' contact with the Red Wings expires, if both the Twins and the people who are running the IA PCL team agree, they can affiliate. Rochester MN is too small to even support independent league ball, has been proven several times
  19. Thrylos
    This is a really good read on Tanaka. Very detailed in-depth analysis of his stuff, including some red flags. Long but worth while...
  20. Thrylos
    That all depends, really. I would argue that Tonkin is probably a better pitcher than Roenicke and Pressly who were one of the original squad. Heck, Tyler Robertson made the team out of ST... The pen has a way to balance out. September in non-competing teams might be a different story, but it just balances out.
  21. Thrylos
    Cannot look at those in a vaccum, esp. cumulative stats like WAR. Worley pitched a grand total of 48.7 innings. This is less than Andrew Albers and about as many as Liam Hendriks. In those less than 49 innings, he had a .401 BABIP, a 65.2% LOB rate, and a 15.5% HR/FB rate. Triple Whammy. Broken mirror, crossed by a black cat while walking under a ladder.
  22. Thrylos
    Almost certainly, this will not be the 40-man roster of infielders come late March. According to multiple reports the Twins were in on Chavez before he signed with the Dbacks and are looking to upgrade the infield positions in the majors. I will be surprised if the Twins do not add another infielder and subtract Colabello from the list. Re: intermediate/long term SS. Polanco is much better player than Santana and he is close to be ready. Santana's ceiling is utility (he is worse than Casilla was a minor league at every aspect of the game) while Polanco is the real deal with excellent OBP skills even as a teenager. I will not be surprised if he gets up to AA this season and makes the Twins team in 2015.
  23. Thrylos
    You don't even have to move anyone: Roenicke is already gone, Pressly, Thielbar, Fien, Tonkin all have options...
  24. Thrylos
    xFIP is the predictor. FIP is a measurement that is trying to take defense, ballpark, and "luck" out of ERA to describe actual performance. Whether it succeeds or not it is arguable and nothing is perfect, but as a measurement, IMHO, describes how someone pitched better that ERA. Also, other pitchers' work and intentional stuff is reflected in ERA. Hypothetical Example: Bloop single to left (which could have been caught in a LF had normal range), bloop single to right (which could have been caught in a RF had normal range), intentional BB to load the bases and get the right matchup. Reliever in, Base emptying triple. All 3 runs charged to the starter and included in the ERA. Does that reflect how well the guy actually pitched that inning? With real corner OFs that could have been a zero out there... That's why I don't like ERA-based WAR and prefer FIP-based WAR.
  25. Thrylos
    Diamond maybe. But Worley was the fourth best starter in a 102-60 team...
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