Thrylos

I would agree with that, but you don't fire the GM for a fluke. You fire the GM once you realize that he should be accountable for assembling a bad team. Then, to be consistent, 2012 should had been a rebuilding year. If it was a fluke you don't fire the GM (because not his fault,) if not a fluke and fire the GM, you got to rebuild. Simple logic... So either the Twins did wrong by firing Smith (instead of, let's say the one they fired this season), or Ryan did wrong by not rebuilding. Cannot have it both right

This guy. .302/.353/.498 last season 22.3 career UZR/150 (or enter your preferred defensive metric here, including eyeballs) at CF, and being replaced by a rookie phenom. Not only free agents count. Ryan should be able to package Hicks with another body (or the 5 prospects that were cut today) and get AJ Pollock from Arizona. But he does not trade prospects.

Did he? I crunched few numbers. Not including Stauffer. All 3 faced pretty much equal competition (OppQual) so that is pretty comparable. Cannot calculate xFIP, cFIP or SIERA (no ball in play data) so I calculated PE, which correlates pretty well with xFIP and SIERA (better than FIP or ERA.) So depending how you are counting, it is arguable that he won, but it is not arguable that Milone did not win that competition and finished 3. Any. Way. You. Count.

Color me unsurprised with those (or partially surprised with Milone over May, but after May's last outing...) Unsurprised does not mean not disappointed, on the other hand, because I am not sure that the Twins will bring the best 25 up North. That said, both surprised and disappointed that they released Tyler Jones and Matt Koch (among 5 total) today.

Excuses. He is the same who called Diamond his Ace that season.

Originally published at The Minnesota Twins, have announced several cuts, trimming down their Spring Training roster to 31. They announced that Jordan Schafer won the starting Centerfielder job, with Shane Robertson, backing him up and platooning against LHPs. They also announced that Mike Pelfrey will be in the bullpen and the 5th starter will be Tommy Milone. Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario, Trevor May and Mark Hamburger were cut as a result. Also, it was announced that Danny Santana will be the starting Shortstop. Yesterday Lester Oliveros was outrighti It might seem as a surprise to some, but from what I have seen during Spring Training it was pretty much anticipated. This is my guess of the Twins' 25 men Opening Day roster 5 days ago from Fort Myers: My only surprise was Milone over May, but by then May did not have his last (pretty unfortunate) outing. I had argued early and often that Pelfrey was better suited for the pen and that is where he should end up and really that decision was pretty much obvious around last weekend. Also, I was convinced that Robinson had a chance for the fourth outfield job (remember, he was a fourth outfielder in a World Series team?) Robinson and Schafer pretty much outhit both Hicks and Rosario and it was obvious with their play on the field that they were ahead of the competition. Still a few battles are left, mainly for the back up catcher and 2 bullpen jobs, but as I indicated then, I strongly believe that Chris Herrmann will win the back up catcher position (and not only because Josmil Pinto suffered a concussion) and Blaine Boyer (not Doyle as in the tweet) and JR Graham will win the last 2 bullpen jobs over the lefties Aaron Thompson and Caleb Thielbar, both of whom have options. The opening day roster is set, but there is only 1 open spot on the 40-man roster, and Boyer and Robinson will need 2. Pending any trades, I think that Michael Tonkin's, and Stephen Pryor's spots (and even Logan Darnell's, but he is a starter so likely more valuable) are the ones closer to jeopardy, since there are several pitchers ahead of them. In additon to the major league moves, in minor league moves involving former top 40 prospects, the Twins announced the retirement of C Tyler Grimes (number 38 prospect before the 2014 season) and that they released C Matt Koch (number 22 prospect before the 2014 season), RHP Tyler Jones (number 39 prospect before the 2014 season), IF Will Hurt and LHP Josue Montanez ----

I'd love to see references to a strong contingent of scouts saying that Gibson was not good enough to be called up in the Majors in 2013. Here is evidence of the opposing view. Remember, he was out for one season with TJ surgery. So, yes, he was not ready until 2013. His first pro season, 2010, he went from high A to AAA. I cannot think of a scout inside or outside the Twins' organization who would say that was disappointed by Gibson. 2011 was hurt. 2012 was recovering for most of the season. Also, you have to take things in perspective. We are not talking about a contenting team. We are not even talking about an average team. We are not even talking about a bad team. We are talking about the worst (or the second worst) team in the majors. Period. 99+96+96+92. If a first round draft pick cannot be trusted to make the rotation of that team because of journeymen like Correia and Deduno and Diamond and PJ Walters and Hendricks and Hernandez and the like, something is very very wrong (and, of course it is, just look at their record.) About being horrible when he was called up: He was better than Worley, Diamond (who made the opening day roster), Walters, Hendricks and Hernandez. On a 96 loss team. If you can afford to call up the last 3, you should be able to call up Gibson...

I'd dig up Kirby before either of those

The writing was on the wall last week on this. As a matter of fact, don't be surprised when Herrmann is announced as the back up Catcher soon The Milone thing smells "scholarship" to me, and I wonder if it is Ryan and not Molitor's doing here, because when Molitor saying that "Milone pitched well this Spring" sounds either blind or lying, so I suspect that he had to say that...

Nathan and Perkins would disagree. If a starter has good FB velocity and (only) one complimentary offering, might not cut it as a starter, but as a short reliever with his velocity up a few ticks, he can be pretty good. Pelfrey fits that description to a tee. His FB is around 92-94 as a starter (was higher a tick with the Mets, but...) , which easily translates to 95-97 as a reliever. His curve is a plus pitch. (The rest of his pitches are not.) So a reliever with 2 plus pitches... He just has to embrace it.

HRs are (often) park-dependent and RBI are opportunity-dependent. WAR is probably the best stat to describe someone's career, esp. in a retrospective view. Steve Balboni had a career 2.8 fWAR, including a single year of 2.6 WAR, so he was replacement level. Not average. Replacement. Level. (think Colabello/Parmelee level.) That's Walker's floor Jay Buhner had a career 22 fWAR which included a couple seasons of around 3, a 3+ (All Star season) and the rest around 1. Alright player, but not a star. That's Walker's ceiling. LIkely, he will be some place in-between. Of course, if he starts making contact, and take a ball or two, I might change my mind about his future (and that can happen, since he is developing...)

well, yeah, that's the thing. His contact rates and walk rates are abysmal. I'd say that today he is like a Steve Balboni or Jay Buhner comparable, maybe (thinking floors and ceilings) . With a tad less defense.

"Trade one of the 5th starters" OK great premise. Given what the Twins got for Kevin Correia last season, I think you might want to amend the ambitions here, no?

He has been working at the "Boras FL Center". And this is a real quotation...

Indeed. Top feeders vs. bottom feeders. Images worth 1000 words, so here is what I think when I think about TR's strategy:

Compare Liriano and Worley (plus many more) before and after Andy Give me the name of a single manager who would play Kubel, Colabello (and Dummit, but that's an old story) at outfield and Parmelee too (and as a starting centerfielder.) Give me the name of a single manager who would have Jason Tyner as the designated hitter in the postseason There is only one. And calculate close games lost by ineptitude or errors, and you will see that "3" is way underestimating.

Are you sure that the talks are not about figuring out how the heck he gave up a Home Run to Ben Revere last season?

Ok ok ok Got to really separate things. When the Twins made all the international investments (including signing Sano,) Terry Ryan was not the General Manager. Remember? When the Twins were contending at the deadline and a General Manager decided to trade prospects to get the Twins ahead, it was not Terry Ryan Remember? Terry Ryan was the guy who tried to fix 99+96 with Correia and Pelfrey and got 96. Terry Ryan is the guy who would hold onto the Scott Stahoviaks of the world until the second coming. Terry Ryan is the guy who thinks that Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson and Kevin Correia and (unfortunately not Neil) Scott Diamond are wonderful as rotation anchors. Blah...

Everyone who gives up a HR to Ben Revere should be on any teams' (including the Twins') radar

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ----- After my visit to Fort Myers was said and done about a year ago, I gave my prediction about how the Twins will do in 2014 and the main reasoning behind it. You can find that here (and, yes, I did predict that they will finish 70-92, but that's not something to be happy about.) During this Spring Training, I took a risk: I suggested that the Twins can actually compete, if they do three things: Fix their bullpen, fix their outfield, and fix their attitude. Here is reiterrating that reasoning from the first part of that series of posts: First: In order to make significant, measurable and effective change, you cannot focus on changing 20 things. Too many balls in the air, some will drop. Focusing of few things that you can change and make an effort to do so, is much more effective. Second: I do believe that with the changes this off-season, the Twins removed a huge barrier to their success: Breaking ties with Gardernhire, Anderson, Ulger and Steinbach (even though they did not go far enough in my opinion, but this is all another matter,) is the equivalent of starting the seasons with (at least) plus five wins. So that next number in that loss progression looks more between 83 and 87. So those three things that need to be done, if done correctly and effectively, will be enough to give the Twins an extra 5-7 wins, putting that total loss range to 76-82 and that is not a losing record. The top number of that range (86-76) is close to a wild-card number and likely, if the Twins get there, they will compete for the title in a weakened and more balanced Division. So there are the parameters. And in each of the above linked posts, I explained in detail what I was looking to see when I was down there at Fort Myers, and, here is what I saw, and will try to put into win-loss numbers: First of all, I am standing by that underlined statement up there. So, if all things are the same, the baseline record of the 2015 Twins is 77-85. Take it to Vegas. Of course that is pending major injuries to 3/5ths of the rotation and 3/9ths of the position players (but that is, yet, another story.) How much higher than that can get? Let's take those three things one at a time and see: The bullpen: Here are my thoughts before my trip to Fort Myers, and here is what I think now: It still is incomplete. Happy to see that Blaine Boyer and JR Graham will likely make the team. They will be an improvement. It looks like Mike Pelfrey will make the pen, but not sure in what kind of role. Caleb Thielbar might be optioned. That's on the positive side. On the negative side Tim Stauffer might be a disappointment, or at least a mop-up vs. a set-up reliever I thought that he would be. Also, Casey Fien looks like a lock again, based on small sample size. Glen Perkins' velocity topped at 93 mph, which is a concern, even though command and control was there. One wonders whether he will be ready to be a lights out closer in the beginning of the Twins' season at Detroit... Tough to quantify, but I would say, taking Perkins' health risk into account, plus 1 might be right here. So the new baseline is 78-84. Next: The Outfield Defense: Here are my before thoughts, and this is what I saw: Nah. Not yet. Let me start with a (bonus) prediction: The Twins will have the following 4 outfielders in their roster (L/R) : Oswaldo Arcia, Jordan Schafer, Torii Hunter. Shane Robinson will be the fourth outfielder, platooning with Schafer at CF against LHP and Eduardo Nunez will play LF as well. So 4.5 outfielders with Aaron Hicks and Eddie Rosario optioned to AAA. What I saw at Fort Myers was somewhat disturbing: a. the positioning of the outfield was way too shallow (not sure who is the Twins' OF coach these days or who is responsible for that), b. Hunter is a teenager at heart but not in body, which means he wants to do above and beyond, but he comes short in a bad way, over-running balls and over-throwing cut-off men. c. Hicks will not make the team and he is a better defender than Schafer. Have to give this a zero right now. Baseline still 78-84. Next. The Attitude: Here is what I said about that. And I will be brief. Is this a team for which I got a gut feeling that it expects to win each game? No. But, is this a team that is paying more attention to detail, seems happier as a bunch, and actually talks to each other on the field about what they should do more than last season? Heck, yeah. Hard to quantify, but I think plus 2. So the new baseline is 80-82. Conclusion: This will not be another 90 loss team, unless something weird happens. 80-82 is the baseline. Another factor: I did get some 1987-like excitement there, like this might be a magic year (like that one.) But I think that they are one year away. So my prediction for 2015 is that the Twins will have the same record as their Pythagorean in 1987: 79-83. But, yes, this year feels a lot like 1987, and you never know what is going to happen...

Have you seen his recent plate appearances (at any level) against curveballs and changeups? Hint: you could stand in for him and the results would had been the same...

That would be the Packers, sorry.

Have you seen Graham pitch? just sayin' He is MLB-ready.

Great meeting you too! About those nuts on the plane: Enjoy them while you can. Only Delta gives them away for free these days

Read my previous post about the back story. And as long as JR Graham makes the team (and he better, otherwise Ryan should be collecting unemployment) there will be plenty of 97 mph balls to keep the velocity warm until Meyer and Burdi and Reed and Co make it up North...