Thrylos

The kid should had have the surgery already. R&R does not work. They never learn. Repeating the same mistake pitcher after pitcher is beyond inane...

Nope. Fast track would had meant a ST invite (for Reed as well). Burdi is the best RHRP the Twins have in any level in the organization. Shame he was not given a chance to make the team.

Chris Young - done

I don't see a reason for the Twins not to start with both Graham and Boyer. This would mean no Thielbar and no Milone (both have options). Then there is the Stauffer scholarship spot. Boyer pitched well when I saw him the other day. 3 solid pitches good command, but velo still not there. He also quit baseball last season, so part of the deal is to see whether or not he wants to do this. That's why the opt out

Great profiles, but I don't think that any of the players mentioned here are true 5 tool talents, and that includes Buxton and Gordon. I just don't think that Buxton will hit 25 or more HRs in a season, and, in addition to that, I have more ?s about Gordon. 5 tools is kind of a utopia. I can think of one single Hall of Famer the last 30 years who was a 5 tool player (Rickey Henderson) and his power was there for only his peak 3-4 seasons. Buxton profiles more like a good Tim Raines (with a clean nose) and 1 HR in 255 PAs for Nick Gordon...

Great stuff. Got that info from your twitter feed as well. I would read nothing into Buxton being at AAA, but they just need another body to play OF there, before someone like Farris and the losers of the CF battle return, because both Ramirez and Kvasnicka cannot play CF. So that's that That's said, this is a great info for my Sunday and Monday trips to the back fields. Any legend for the symbols? **, ^ etc?

bet you can do better by the City of Palms

I see zero reason for a Twins' fan to go to AZ for ST. And it is a pretty different experience at AZ because a. facilities are shared by 2 teams and b. you cannot get close to the prospects. Yuck.

Not sure if there still is one with the new CBA, but even with the old, a team can DFA someone and trade him to the team that claimed him.

Here you go: One Two Three. Lots of the National (and some of the local) prospect lists, really overvalue first round picks, because when they were drafted. Adam Johnson is the poster boy of that. Twins "top prospect" in multiple lists, only because of his draft position. I guess Vargas was not good enough to crack their top 10, as well, because he was never drafted

I saw Graham pitch today and have a full log of each of his pitches here. After today, I will really be surprised if he does not make the team. That good and really great composure on the mount even after a mishandled ball by Santana on a Rohlfilng throw on a CS attempt got a runner to the third with one out. Color me impressed.

Milone was pretty awful today. 1st inning was mainly fastballs, but when you are throwing 83-86, it will be batting practice when they opponents time it, and that is what happened the second inning. He threw pure junk third and fourth. I am just allergic to junk ball pitchers. I think that the Twins can do better, and if they think he might have some value to someone else, maybe they can see what they can get. From Rosario's OBP, to Hicks' hitting and glove, to Schafer's glove and batting average, Robinson actually might have put himself on top of that competition and that is something that the Twins should not stomach. Let's see what Hicks + Milone or Rosario + Milone can bring as far as a Centerfielder goes...

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ----The Twins has a couple split squad games today, against the Rays at Port Charlotte and at the Hammond Stadium against the Orioles. Here are my notes from the home game: After Alex Meyers' demotion yesterday, there are only 3 pitchers left in the battle for the 5th rotation spot: Mike Pelfrey, Tommy Milone and Trevor May. The last 2 started the respective games today, with Milone taking the node for the home game. While May ended up pitching a no-hit 4 innings at Port Charlotte, Milone had an adventurous start in Fort Myers. He is a pitcher who really needs to be spot on and if he is not, it is like a batting practice, and the Orioles showed that in the second inning, when they timed perfectly his 83-87 mph Fastballs, hitting them all over the park, and one (by former Twin Steve Pearce) off the staircase that leads to the RF berm, for a HR. He complemented his fastball with a 79-81 mph change and a 73-75 mph curve that were hit and miss. Totally unimpressed with Milone, maybe because I do not think much about LH junk ball pitchers, but I think that after today Milone took a step back from Pelfrey and May in that competition. To be noted: in the Orioles 4-run second inning, Josmil Pinto was hit three times! by Adam Jones' back swing on the head and left the game after the inning was over. Mildly surprised that the Twins' pitchers did not retaliate for their catcher, but the next pitcher who faced Adam Jones, was Glen Perkins... Perkins had a decent outing, other than hanging an 82 mph slider to Delmon Young for a HR in the 5th. 9 pitches, 6 FBs (90-92,) 3 SLs (81-82) all but one strikes, but a strike was a long one too. He was pounding the zone, but he is at least 4-5 mph with both of his pitches from where he needs to be. Brian Duensing pitched 2 scoreless innings and he seems in mid-season form with all 4 of his pitches working: His Fastball was 89-91, threw 2 curves at 73, one for a looking strike, got a ground out and a couple of looking strikes with a mid 80s change and his slider was fairly lively at the low 80s, inducing a couple of jammed pop ups. Watching JR Graham pitch was a treat and I think that the Twins have found a good one. Will be very surprised if he does not make the team. He pitched 2 scoreless innings, and here is the sequence of his pitches (fastball unless mentioned) : First inning: 91-ball ( B ), 93 swinging strike (SS), 94 ground out (GO). 94 fly out (FO). 94 Foul (F), 84 (SLider) Looking Strike (LS), 86 (SL) SS. Second inning: 92 Hit. 95 B, 91 B, 93 LS, 94 F, 95 F, 81 (CHange up) B, 93 LS - K. To Mr Parmelee: 91 B, 96 F, 85 (SL) B, 84 (SL) F, 85 (SL) SS - K. 95 SS, 92 B, 95 B, 96 GO. Very good movement with the fastball, and, as you can see, he does very his speeds. Changeup is not his stronger pitch and he threw only one, but his slider is above average. Looking forward to seeing him this season with the Twins. As far as position players, disappointed with Torii Hunter who killed a couple of Twins' rallies, the first by hitting into a double play with the bases loaded and one out on the first and the second by striking out with runners in scoring position and one out. If you read the box score, you'd think that Danny Santana had a good day with two hits, but what the box score does not show is a couple of awful swinging strike outs and a dropped ball when Rohlfing tried to throw the runner away that ended up moving the runner to third. I think that the battle for the starting Shortstop position is neck to neck as far as Santana and Eduardo Escobar are concerned. Hicks had a bad day at the plate and had a mishap (took a bad route and the ball dropped inches from his foot, but was too shallow) at the outfield that went for a double and a trapped ball that he could have caught. Between the four centerfield contenders nobody has really pulled ahead at this point. Eddie Rosario is hitting .242/.235/.515, Shane Robinson .269/.345/.385, Hicks .222/.313/.370 and Jordan Schafer .217/.357/.261. Pick your poison. Oswaldo Arcia had a good play with the glove on a shallow fly ball that he aggressively called Hicks away and fielded cleanly; that ball would had been an adventure for Willingham last season. Really impressed with the improvements at Hammond Stadium, but there are a few things sorely missing: A couple of (small) infield boards; one to indicate balls and strikes and outs and the other pitch velocity. The main board is not visible from all outfield seats well. But there is always next year. Tomorrow and Monday, there are no home games for the Twins, so expect full coverage of the action at the minor league fields.

Think milk shake and sub milk with beer: malt, flavor number 1, ice, flavored beer, shake machine.

I think that Pryor will likely go next. Disappointed to see him touch 93 at the Hammond Stadium radar. Lots of potential there, but if he does not get his FB up high, he will be hit. Saw Boyle pitch yesterday, 3 pitches good command, velo needs to get higher, definitely more productive than Guerrier in the Guerrier role. High on Pelfrey as a pen option, higher than the Twins' brass on May as a pen option. Perkins, Duensing, Fien (plus at least one who loses the 5th SP battle) pretty much givens. Thielbar (has been horrible), Thompson, Hamburger, Boyle, Graham (looking forward to see him today) for 2-3 spots. Need to see more from the group (and it is too early still), but there is potential, esp. if the Twins have May and Pelfrey there...

Good stuff and good to meet you John. For me there is no Spring without Spring Training, so it has become an annual ritual for a while. Summit Pilsner is available at the stand by the Twins' wives' autograph area and Extra Pale Ale at the RF "tiki" bar. Another beer you got to mention is the Minnesota Red, available in many places, and is not that bad for a custom mass produced Red Ale. With that sun, Miller Light and H2O (you can bring unopened water bottles in the park otherwise they charge $3.50, and you can refill from the cold water fountains behind the batter's eye) works for me the best

A great article was written this week by Jonathan Judge and published at The Hardball Times, " FIP in Context." This introduces an new metric, called cFIP, or contest-adjusted FIP that attempts to "estimate the pitcher’s true pitching talent during a particular season". Image courtesy of Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports A great article was written this week by Jonathan Judge and published at The Hardball Times, " FIP in Context." This introduces an new metric, called cFIP, or contest-adjusted FIP that attempts to "estimate the pitcher’s true pitching talent during a particular season". I'm always interested in new pitching metrics development, and not only because I have myself taken part in the endeavor. This is an interesting metric, albeit much more complex than PE and xPE. It also correlates well with SIERA, which along with xPE (because it is easy to calculate) are my two favorite predictive metrics regarding pitching performance. I will not steal Jonathan's thunder, please read that excellent article, but I will present his framework and then present his work as applied to the Twins' pitchers. (He calculated cFIPs for every pitcher in the league for the past 4 years, including Jamie Carroll.) The cFIP scale is normalized to 100 for average, just like OPS+ and ERA+, but it is a minus scale, meaning that less is better, like ERA and FIP and SIERA and all similar metrics. (It should have been called cFIP-, but that is a different story.) So 100 is average and less is better. Jonathan Judge has the following buckets of pitchers, according their cFIP: 70 and less = superb 70–85 Great 85–95 Above Avg. 95–105 Average 105–115 Below Avg. 115–130 Bad 130+ Awful Let's put the 2014 Minnesota Twins' pitching staff in those buckets. For reference, players that are not still with the team are in parenthesis. I am also including the 2014 cFIP numbers of the newcomers this off-season. They have an asterisk behind their names. Superb: Phil Hughes 70 Great: Glen Perkins 74 Above Avg.: Casey Fien 89 Tim Stauffer 91* (Yohan Pino 94) Average: Aaron Thompson 98 Logan Darnell 99 Ricky Nolasco 100 Trevor May 101 Ervin Santana 101* Michael Tonkin 102 Caleb Thielbar 103 Blaine Boyer 103* Lester Oliveros 105 Below Avg.: (Jared Burton 106) (Kris Johnson 106) (Sam Deduno 107) Stephen Pryor 108 Kyle Gibson 109 (Anthony Swarzak 111) A. J. Achter 112 Ryan Pressly 112 Brian Duensing 114 Tommy Milone 114 Bad: (Matt Guerrier 116) (Kevin Correia 119) Awful: Mike Pelfrey 132 A few observations: According to this, in 2014, the Twins had one superb pitcher, Phil Hughes, one great pitcher, Glen Perkins, and 13 pitchers (that is a full MLB staff, ladies and gentlemen) who were average, above average, great or superb. Mike Pelfrey (who tied for worst in the majors in this metric) was the only awful pitcher in the Twins' staff. But, the Twins had the second worst bullpen in the majors according to xFIP and SIERA and the third worst rotation in the majors, according to SIERA (fourth according to xFIP). Other than Yohan Pino, who was an unfortunate loss, the Twins' front office seems to behave pretty well according to this metric. The pitchers they let go were all below average or worse. They did keep a few below average pitchers, and they did keep Mike Pelfrey, who is better suited for the pen and was injured. Other than Duensing who had a down season, the other below average pitchers are all young. The big issue in the big picture here: The Twins had a whole staff worth (13) pitchers who were average and above, yet they managed to be almost at the bottom of the league in pitching. Those things seem to be in conflict. Let's dig deeper and check out the 2013 Twins' cFIP buckets that Jonathan Judge calculated. For reference purposes, players who left after 2013 are in parenthesis and I added Ricky Nolasco (with an asterisk) as well. Superb: Glen Perkins 63 Casey Fien 67 Great: Nobody Above Avg.: Jared Burton 91 Caleb Thielbar 91 Ricky Nolasco 93* Michael Tonkin 94 Average: Anthony Swarzak 97 Brian Duensing 97 (Shairon Martis 105) Below Avg.: Mike Pelfrey 109 (Liam Hendriks 110) Ryan Pressly 111 (Cole DeVries 114) (Andrew Albers 115) Bad: Kevin Correia 116 Samuel Deduno 116 (Josh Roenicke 118) (P.J. Walters 122) (Vance Worley 124) Kyle Gibson 125 (Scott Diamond 129) Awful: Nobody This is some really interesting data. Here is what I see: I think that I either underestimated the Twins' front office use of metrics in personnel decisions in building the team or Jack Goin should buy me a beer this week at Hammond Stadium, because this tool really describes what the Twins are doing regarding personnel decisions. Recently, they have tended to get rid of below average and worse pitchers and add average and above pitchers. Hughes was around 100, but I did not add him here. This is a stop the presses type of statement. I'm close to nodding my head in approval of what the front office is doing. For 2013 this tells a tale of two categories: all the average and above pitchers were relievers. All starters were below average or worse but not awful. And Pelfrey was the best of that lot. Enough with 2013. What happened in 2014, relative to 2013? Every single reliever from Perkins down regressed, while the starters (save the injured Pelfrey and replacement-level Correia) improved. This is fundamentally interesting, because it breaks some commonly accepted narratives. One excuse for the decline of the Twins' pen in 2014 was that they were too tired because the rotation was so bad. This data turns this upside down. The Twins 2013 rotation was worse than the Twins 2014 rotation, and the 2014 Twins' pen made the 2014 Twins rotation worse. So a bad pen can make a rotation worse. Like a reliever coming in with two outs and the bases loaded to give a grand slam and four runs to the starter's record. What a concept... I am starting to really like this metric. So, and this is really hard for me to say, the front office did make some improvements for 2014 that actually seem to be supported by real data, but the pitching tanked compared to 2013. Why? I'd love to hear your theories after this, and this is what I am thinking: Look at that 2014 list up there. In your mind, normalize it for playing time. That would shift the buckets heavier to the below average. How many games did Pino or May start compared to Pelfrey, Correia, Deduno? Why was Burton used in high leverage situations over better relievers? Yes. Do the same normalization for playing time for the 2013 data. And you are looking at evidence of what has been written here, loudly and clearly, about mismanagement of the Twins' pitching staff by Gardy and Andy. This has to be part of the reason for the pen decline in 2014. And it had to be fixed. And, yes, metrics can be devised to normalize and approximate defense independent pitching, but I have not yet seen one that could estimate the madness of the Twins' 2014 OF. (What is the range factor of a bucket? ) This actually makes me more hopeful, because it seems like the Twins are making an effort to address some things that need addressing. So, what do you say? View full article

Good to see Seth's post. That was my travel day and did not quite get to read it, until just now. I just made my suggestion here based on what I saw from him today. Didn't talk to the kid, just saw him hit

They got 2 LHPs. Perkins and Duensing. I think that's enough. I did like what I have seen from Boyer today. 3 pitches with plus command. I would not leave Archer out of the equation yet, as well... Still this pen does not have a dominant arm (or two) and this might be a problem

My (first and) latest take on the roster is here. As far as rookies go, I think that Rosario and Graham can still make the team. Not sure that Theilbar should be a given.

Meyer is 25. Here is a comparable (mechanics' wise) pitcher's age 25 season: 160.7 IP, 4.82 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 96 BB, 130 K, 1.512 WHIP. His age 26 season: 219.7 IP, 3.65 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 120 BB, 194 K, 1.338 WHIP. couple of questions? a. would you stay or would you go? b. do you know who that guy is?

Can't talk about Brett Lee, but I like what Tim Shibuya brings on the table and I see him crack a major league roster as a middle/long reliever at some point. That said, these type of guys are behind starters, closers and late inning relievers in rankings...

Good effort, but I think that you got way few data points there, because I know at least 2 lists that Buxton was not rated the Twins' number 1 prospect this season... The "nationals" all agree on that, but...

Every list that has Gordon ahead of Polanco makes me go blah

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ------------- Today the Minnesota Twins hosted the Pittsburgh Pirates at Hammond Stadium. As usual, before the game I trotted by the minor league fields that today were hosting a celebrity from the baseball world: A dad watching his kid pitch a bullpen: And then walk with him after he was done: Interesting enough, not many fans had an idea of who the dad was. And he was about as humble as a baseball superstar as I have seen. He had his picture taken with fans and shook his head and smiled when I told him that his kid has a great arm, from one dad to another. And Derek Rodriguez does have a great arm. He was tossing nice crisp fastballs when he got his mechanics right. But his mechanics were all over the place to begin and his pitching coach was there talking to him pitch after pitch, and Derek incorporated the feedback. I think that making the transition to pitching will be hard, but I think that he has the determination, the tools and the family and Twins support to do it. Will likely start 2015 in Extended Spring Training, but I fully expect him to see him progress fast. Every Spring Training there are a couple of players who are relatively unknown, but do make an impression to me. The first one I will point this year is Jack Barrie, a 19 year old Aussie First Baseman who made his pro debut last season with the GCL Twins. This kid has Kennys Vargas written all over him. Great plate presence, quick wrists, one to keep an eye on. And I bet you never have heard of him. Back to the big boys playing the Pirates. Kyle Gibson started for the Twins and after his recent discussion about adding velocity, I was betting that we'd see at least one 95 mph fastball on the (2 mph or so) fast Hammond Stadium radar, and we did. The problem with Kyle today was that his 93-95 mph fastballs were lacking the movement and the downward break his 90-92 mph fastballs did. Also his slider was not there (he threw 2 in the first innings, including the first HR to Cervelli). In the third inning, he seems that he threw all sliders and change ups. At least he was working the kinks out. No worries about Gibson. In a tale of two who are fighting for the 25th man spot on the roster. Eduardo Nunez beat out a cleanly-fielded ground ball to the SS (our own Pedro Florimon, btw) for an infield hit and managed to steal second two pitches afterwards. Shane Robinson (who is fighting for the same spot,) drove him in with a scorcher on the first base line and then, after Dozier was hit by a pitch to fill first, was thrown out at third on a double steal that found Dozier safe and sound at second. Robinson had some decent plays at left today, but I still think that Nunez is probably fighting with Herrmann (who did not play) for this spot as is now... Back to arms. Blaine Boyer came in to pitch in the middle of an inning and was effective. And then pitched another inning and was effect, but in his second inning his velocity picked up a few notches. His fastball moved from 89-90 all the way to 93-94, his curve from 73 to 76 and he threw some change ups at mid 80s (all well commanded, btw,) which made me think that indeed there might be some pitchers who are different (and better) if they come up with no outs and no ons on the top of an inning. Michael Tonkin and Stephen Pryor followed. Tonkin, who have since been opted, topped up at 94 and so did Pryor, who really did some nifty glovework in a comebacker, which made me think whether there are any real fastball pitchers left on the roster, since that gun is 2 mph or so fast and these 3 are pitchers touted to hit high 90s. Maybe too early, but still somewhat concerning... In another note, it was great to see Toper Anton again, and meet Steve Lein and John Bonnes. See you guys around the next few days.