Thrylos

I'd trade Nolasco for some cap space (or whatever is called.) He should be worth a few million of that in the open market

Have you noticed the salsa dancing hip and front foot action while swinging bit?

If you look at his career MiLB numbers his average isoD is .100 with very little deviation. His average isoP is .150 with bit more deviation (ranging from 0.094 to .265). Given, both of those number will improve the closer he gets to his prime. If he hits .250, a .250/.350/.400 slash line should be expected, which higher than what Shane actually has indicated. If he hits .275 (which is his MiLB average) then you are looking at .275/.375/.425 (.800 OPS) which in this day and age and ballpark translates to about 122 OPS+ (give or take a couple) Can he do it? No question. It is a matter of continue being selective and making better contact in the majors. Will he do it? We will find out, but the potential is there.

It was dislike for Gardhenhire who had a guy hitting .210/.291/.271 as his starting third baseman day in day out. Those are not major league starting numbers (esp. at third) regardless the glove. See: Florimon, Pedro. Punto could not help being himself and he gave it all. He was just not starting third baseman material.

Depends on the lineup: Pinto - 25 Mauer -10 Dozier 20 Escobar/Santana - 10 Sano 40 Arcia 30 Hicks 10 Hunter 15 Vargas 30 maybe good for 190. Sub Plouffe & Suzuki for Sano & Pinto and you got about 135 Max.

Let me count the ways: a. it is Escobar's worst defensive position b. Escobar is too short, so catchable line drives become doubles and triples down the line.

I think that the 99+96+96+92 has lots more to do with respect than the flyover country part.... And, yes, 99+96+96+92 teams do not deserve respect, they deserve nuking and rearranging.

They are not fielding balls in game situations yet. They are having drills. That's why you do not hear much about the above. Yet. Give it a week and you will hear plenty.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- At first read, the title of this series sounds very much like A Midsummer Night's Dream: Do I dare suggest that the team that went from 99 to 96 to 96 to 92 losses the past five seasons needs to do only three things to compete? The next number to that Arithmetic Progression up there is between 88 and 92 and that is not competing by any means. Let me explain my train of thought here before the nice kind people in white come and get me to warmer climates: First: In order to make significant, measurable and effective change, you cannot focus on changing 20 things. Too many balls in the air, some will drop. Focusing of few things that you can change and make an effort to do so, is much more effective. Second: I do believe that with the changes this off-season, the Twins removed a huge barrier to their success: Breaking ties with Gardernhire, Anderson, Ulger and Steinbrenner (even though they did not go far enough in my opinion, but this is all another matter,) is the equivalent of starting the seasons with (at least) plus five wins. So that next number in that loss progression looks more between 83 and 87. So those three things that need to be done, if done correctly and effectively, will be enough to give the Twins an extra 5-7 wins, putting that total loss range to 76-82 and that is not a losing record. The top number of that range (86-76) is close to a wild-card number and likely, if the Twins get there, they will compete for the title in a weakened and more balanced Division. The first thing they need to do to get there is to fix their bullpen. And I hope that they know that this was a huge problem in 2014; as a matter of fact a bigger problem than the rotation. I touched it a bit here, suggesting that they spend some more money and get another late inning reliever, even though this bird has flown already, there are similar possibilities, especially in a trade, outside the organization. But there are potentially intriguing possibilities inside the organization. Let's frame the problem first, and then let's look at what they have at hand, and explore potential solutions: The Problem: In 2014, the Twins' bullpen was bad; how bad? It ranked 29th in the majors in both xFIP (4.18) and SIERA (3.84). And those are numbers that are a. fielding independent so Gardy's Catchers at the Outfield are not factoring in, and b. reflect the actual talent of pitchers and not external parameters, thus really measuring how good the staff is in a vaccum (as much as one can have.) So why the Twins' pen was one better than the worst in the majors? Let's do some root cause analysis: Here are some other numbers for the pen, and their rank in the majors: K/9: 6.66 (30th), K% 17.3 (30th), SwStr% 9.2% (30th), GB%: 40.1 (27th), FBv: 91.5 (27th), Contact% 80.9 (1st). So, in other words, the Twins pen: Had the worst strikeout rate in the majors, the worst swing strike percentage in the majors, the third from the bottom ground ball rate in the majors, the third from the bottom fastball velocity in the majors and the most contact rate in the majors. However, it could had been worse: The Twins' pen ranked 15th in BABIP (so they were not particularly unlucky) and 23rd in HR/FB. So in simple terms, the 2014 Twins' pen: Could not induce swings and misses or strikeouts Put the ball in play more than any other pen And the put the ball in play with the third worst velocity in the majors When the ball was in play was the least on the ground than all but 3 other teams Thankfully, they were lucky enough that their fly balls translated to home runs in a rate less than league average and batted balls (other than home runs) were hits at a league average rate. What they have at hand: To see what they have at hand, let's create an imaginary construct called the league average reliever. So here are the numbers (and I am focusing on the Twins' weaknesses here) of the league average reliever: xFIP: 3.67, SIERA: 3.34 (those 2 are pretty much equivalent, they correlate with 92% coefficient, so I will be focusing on SIERA only for simplicities' sake), K%: 22.2, Fastball velocity (FBv): 92.5, Swinging Strike% (SwStr%) : 10.5. Here are how the current Twins' bullpen candidates (and "locks") performed in those categories in 2014. If they are equal or better than the average major league pitcher, that number is in bold. For players mostly in the minors, I am including their K% in the minors (in parenthesis). The other numbers are not available. Pitcher SIERA K% SwStr% Fbv LHP Glen Perkins 2.62 25.4 11.2 93.4 Brian Duensing 4.29 14.4 8.6 91.1 Logan Darnell 3.55 19.6 (18.1) 9.9 89.8 Aaron Thompson 3.8 19.4 (22.5) 10.8 89.1 Caleb Thielbar 4.06 17 6.2 89.1 Tommy Milone 4.57 14.5 7.3 86.6 Ryan O'Rourke NA (28.7) RHP Lester Oliveros 4.62 18.5 (35.4) 9.8 93.7 Ryan Pressly 4.18 11.5 (24.6) 8.3 93.3 Blaine Boyer 3.45 18.1 (23.5) 9.8 93 Michael Tonkin 3.56 18.4 (24.2) 8.4 92.8 Casey Fien 3.43 19.6 10.4 92.3 Trevor May 4.2 20.7 (23.5) 9.4 91.9 (*) Stephen Pryor 6.94 12.5 (27.2) 5.7 91.7 (*) Tim Stauffer 3.09 24.5 10.9 91.1 A.J. Achter 5.11 10.2 (24.6) 8.3 90.2 J.R. Graham NA (15.7) Mark Hamburger NA (16) So, in other words, the Twins now have only 2 pitchers who were above the proverbial average pitcher in 2014: Glen Perkins and Tim Stauffer. In a seven men bullpen, this is not very encouraging. For the time being, let's pen in Perkins and Stauffer and look for 5 more names, at least one of whom has to be a lefty. I assume that starting pitching prospects like Alex Meyer, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey & Jason Wheeler, will be in AAA if they do not make the rotation, so these 5 are out of this discussion. One wild-card is Mike Pelfrey. I believe that he has the stuff to make an excellent late inning reliever, and make the jump the Glen Perkins and Joe Nathan did before. However, Pelfrey has been a better starter than either Perkins or Nathan, so his ceiling as a late innings reliever is higher than both. Pelfrey has pitched on 2 games in relief (for the Mets in 2007) thus if that transition happens, it should happen as soon as possible, to be able to pitch in consecutive days when the season starts. Why do I think he can be a good late innings reliever? His fastball is explosive when healthy and is his primary weapon. As a starter, he has to mix his pitches. As a reliever, his 92.5 mph fastball, can easily gain 3-4 more miles an hour. His curve ball is a good complimentary offering and he would have the luxury to drop his non-successful slider and cutter and just occasionally mix his less than stellar split finger change. This makes 3. As far as righties go, the Twins will likely take Casey Fien up north (and hopefully not use him in high leverage situations, because he is below average in all of the above categories, and he is one of the major drivers of the low GB%, since his is only 32.1.) Fien would not be my choice. I would rather see what Trevor May can do as a reliever. Similar discussion with Pelfrey, his 91.9 mph FB average will get to the mid 90s as a reliever, plus he had the second best K% of the group in the majors and a respectable SwStr% (mostly as a starter, and will get better as a reliever.) And the cherry on top is that we led the 2014 Twins' pen with 2 Ground Balls per Fly Ball and a 57.1% GB%. May projects as an above average reliever. This makes 4. Need a lefty, and from that group, I'd go with Brian Duensing, and not because he is the most veteran. Brian Duensing (like Glen Perkins) regressed a bit in 2014, mainly losing about 1 mph velocity in his fastball and losing effectiveness in his slider. That translated to a K% drop from 20.9% to 14.4% and a SwStr% drop from 10.5% to 8.6%. That said, he had the highest GB% from all lefties in the Twins' pen (45.7%) and has by far the highest velocity from the lefties left in the list. As far as offerings go, I think that Duensing has too many pitches. Losing either the slider or the curve (both have been inconsistent) and focusing on one, plus regaining his 2013 form (which was at or above the average pitcher's) will do wonders for the Twins. I hope that the new pitching coach will help in these regards. This makes 5 which leaves a lot of candidates for 2 spots. I think that the Twins will need someone who can fulfill the Anthony Swarzak role, but all of the above have been starting pitchers and there is flexibility, which means that if (e.g.) Tommy Milone loses out for the fifth starter job, he does not have to be the long man in the Twins' pen. Having a long man by committee, might actually be an interesting approach. The most intriguing names above for me for the last 2 spots are Aaron Thomson, Stephen Pryor, J.R. Graham, Ryan Pressly and Blaine Boyer. Pryor use to throw fastballs in the high 90s (career average 96.4) but velocity slipped due to injuries last season. Very similar situation with the rule 5 pick, J.R. Graham and their former rule 5 pick Ryan Pressly. Blaine Boyer is the veteran in the group, with good track record and might make the team. As far as another lefty, Thomson is ahead of Thielbar (who in addition to be below average in every respect, has a 31.8% GB%) in my book. Should the Twins go out and target a "known quantity" like Jonathan Papelbon (2.86 SIERA, 24.3 K%, 12.1 SwStr%, 91.2 mph, 41.9 GB%) in a trade? I think that it will definitely help, but putting Pelfrey and May in the pen might work equally well. I think that the bones are there. Perkins and Duensing should rebound from regressive seasons, Stauffer was a good acquisition, if you break down the numbers, and they will find 2-3 more relievers. But they have to take the best 7 up north, which means that they might have to make tough choices regarding below average extreme fly ball pitchers like Fien and Thielbar, even though there might be the belief that they are still under scholarship.

This whole righthanded thing, is a lack of coaching, as far as I am concerned. If the Twins have better on-field management and coaching, players would not feel like making those decisions themselves. And Hicks is not the only one. Multiple Twins players went ahead and made similar decisions and looked for outside help, because apparently the Twins' staff did not provide enough help for them. It is the manager's and the coaches' job to make sure that a. Hicks knows what he should be doing, b. why he should be doing that and c. be on board with what he should be doing so everyone is on the same page. Apparently that was not the case. In my book, it is the manager's and the coaches' fault. And, again, not the only player who has not seen eye to eye with the manager and his coaches in the Gardenhire regime (and who subsequently been thrown under the bus publicly for that....) There is one single common parameter here. Do you want to blame a dozen or so players or that common parameter?

I loved this snippet from Nightengale's article btw (bold mine for emphasis) : ebullient [ iˈbo͝olyənt, iˈbəlyənt ] ADJECTIVE archaic literary (of liquid or matter) boiling or agitated as if boiling: "misted and ebullient seas" Spot on.

The Teams' second owner (and uncle/adopted father of the third) was a player/manager (well they "player" part might be a stretch, he played but pitched 3 innings is 3 seasons, but technically counts) who bought the team and served as its owner & GM until his death. In the olden days it was very common to move from the field to the bench to the Front Office. Not in the majors, but only up to AA, due to injury, but the current Twins' GM was a pitcher in the Twins' organization. Have a look at the Twins' Front Office listing: You will find Rod Carew, Kent Hrbek, Jack Morris, Tony Oliva, Bert Blyleven listed as part of the Front Office. As far as high level FO positions of former Twins' MLB players, in addition to Beane, Randy Bush (assistant GM with the Cubs) has to make the list. So not that rare.

Might not have to wait too long: .264/.364/.410 for AA Jacksonville (Marlins) last season after knee surgery, signed with Atlanta this off-season and has a chance to make the Braves.

Worley and (a bit) Marquis with their performance after they left the Twins, kinda proved that it was the pitching coach who was an issue (and they were not the first ones.) Capps helped the Twins make the post season when Smith traded for him, but Ryan should had never extended him (the manager and the aforementioned pitching coach wanted a "proven closer") I really would love to see what this bunch of pitchers can do without Anderson being around...

Alright: Career Minor League Stats: Hicks: .272/.377/.420 Hunter: .270/.334/.417 Span: .286/.356/.356 Guess Hunter's and Span's were worse than "not that great" then. And what do you mean by "bad behavior"? I think that you are confusing lack of coaching and feedback and positive reinforcement by the manager and coaches for "bad behavior". What Hunter did in that press conference was the latter, and last time I checked, he has a starting job... If you want to criticize behavior, you got to be fair to all

Excellent. Buehrle had only a single season that he received votes for the Cy Young award. He finished 5th overall with 5 points (the winner had 118 points.) I am certain that, injuries notwithstanding, at least Meyer will get more than 5 points in his career in the Cy Young voting. For reference: Phil Hughes got six points last season. Buehrle was a decent number 3 starter in a competitive team during his prime. Meyer has Ace potential and May at least mid-rotation. The fact that he (and all junk throwing lefties) has always baffled the Twins, is more of Twins' doing and not Buehrle's.

He was clearly hurt in the first half. Mauer was already back in the second half after he returned from the DL. Here are his numbers during the first half: . 271/.342/.353, 34:64 BB:K (339 PA) And during the second half: 289/.397/.408 26:32 BB:K (179 PA). That .805 OPS would had been the fourth best for an AL first baseman behind Abreu, Encarnancion and Cabrera. Not bad. And he has to only get better the more removed he is from his injuries. There should be no question whether "the good Mauer" will return. He already did in the second half last season. That said, I feel like I hear the same story every off-season, about how much better he feels and that he is feeling better than ever etc. I don't think that Mauer is doing himself any favor by saying all that stuff. My advise to him would be when asked, to just say that he will talk with his bat during the season and then walk that talk. Simple.

Lemme see: Most workplaces have a policy of not being on mobile phones while at work. From the point the Twins' players walk into the clubhouse doors, they are at work. I see no issues regarding this.

Yeah. He has to do the time. And at some point he might actually have to do real time. Last I checked, possession of more than one gram of Cocaine was a felony... Hope he gets his life straight, but I really cannot cry for millionaires who urinate their lives down the drain. Sorry.

Tommy Milone in numbers (MLB) : Career xFIP: 4.22, Career FIP: 4.21, Career K% 16.9, Career average FB velocity: 87.3 mph. Career Line Drive Percentage: 22.1% (that would probably have him in the top 10% of starters). Tommy Milone's scouting report: 4 pitches, Fastball, Cutter, Curve and Change. Only one above average pitch (change up.) Fastball, much below average, curve below average and cutter average. His single above average pitch is his 80 mph change. I think that he would be great to pitch batting practice in a contending MLB team... If the Twins do not think that they are a contending MLB team, they should give him a rotation spot.

link here. Good stuff. I remember Ryan even said that Berrios might have an outside chance to make the Twins. Not sure that I believe that, but...

Arizona Diamondbacks - 71.5 - over Atlanta Braves - 73.5 - over Baltimore Orioles - 82.5 - under Boston Red Sox - 86.5 - over Chicago Cubs - 82.5 - under Chicago White Sox - 81.5 - under Cincinnati Reds - 77.5 - over Cleveland Indians - 84.5 - under Colorado Rockies - 71.5 - over Detroit Tigers - 84.5 - under Houston Astros - 75.5 - over Kansas City Royals - 81.5 - under Los Angeles Angels - 88.5 - under Los Angeles Dodgers - 92.5 - under Miami Marlins - 81.5 - over Milwaukee Brewers - 78.5 - under Minnesota Twins - 71.5 - over New York Mets - 81.5 - over New York Yankees - 81.5 - over Oakland Athletics - 81.5 - under Philadelphia Phillies - 68.5 - over Pittsburgh Pirates - 84.5 - over San Diego Padres - 84.5 - over San Francisco Giants - 84.5 - over Seattle Mariners - 86.5 - under St. Louis Cardinals - 88.5 - under Tampa Bay Rays - 78.5 - under Texas Rangers - 78.5 - under Toronto Blue Jays - 83.5 - under Washington Nationals - 93.5 - under Tie breaker 1: The two AL WC teams will be: - Yankees and Mariners Tie breaker 2: The two NL WC teams will be: - Dodgers and Marlins

LF is the easiest position to play. Cuddyer's left ear is deaf, so that causes problems (not hearing the center fielder yelling for a ball) if he played LF. That was part of the reason there.

Not that I disagree with the conclusion of that ESPN ranking, but any article that is talking about "Analytics" and "ERA" in the same area code, kinda makes me skeptical about how many feet into Analytics its author has... And as far as Perkins and his "Analytics" job aspirations go, I'd rather see him go back to school and get a MS into statistical modeling, before he (or anyone else in the Twins' Front Office) does that job.

Yep. And hopefully that culture is gone where Gardy & Co are