Thrylos

Defense is a bit of concern. 17 errors and a .938 FP at Cedar Rapids this season. For comparison's purpose Jorge Polanco's FP at Cedar Rapids was .956 at SS. The more positions he can play the better off the Twins are.

Even if Cleveland chokes, the Twins will need to beat two of the Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros. Good.Luck.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ------- Now that the 2018 draft signing deadline has passed and a substantial amount of international free agents signed for the Twins, it is time to update my 2018 mid-season prospect list. As usual my mid-season lists are preliminary, unlike the off-season lists, and they have minimal commentary and analysis. Also, unlike other lists, players who made it to the majors have graduated from mine, also players older than 25 are not included. As a reminder, here is my off-season 2018 list: The off-season top 60 list (2017 off-season in parenthesis) and ETA included. 1. Royce Lewis (--), SS/OF, 2020 2. Wander Javier (1), SS, 2020 3. Brusdar Graterol (13), RHP, 2020 4. Brent Rooker (--), 1B/LF, 2018 5. Fernardo Romero (4), RHP, 2018 - graduated 6. Rainis Silva (32), C, 2020 - traded 7. Blayne Enlow (--), RHP, 2020 8. Zack Littell (--), RHP, 2018 - graduated 9. Stephen Gonsalves (6), LHP, 2018 10. Lewin Diaz (3), 1B, 2020 11. Akil Baddoo (24), OF, 2020 12. Tyler Jay (2), LHP, 2018 13. Alex Kirilloff (8) OF, 2020 14. Luis Arraez (11), IF, 2019 15. Michael Montero (--), RHP, 2021 16. Nick Gordon (5), IF, 2018 17. Tyler Wells (54), RHP, 2020 18. Jose Miranda (--), IF, 2021 19. Jean Carlos Arias (36), CF, 2020 20. Jovani Moran (--), LHP, 2020 21. Lewis Thorpe (30), LHP, 2019 22. LaMonte Wade (22), OF, 2018 23 Yunior Severino (--), IF, 2022 24. Chris Paul (--), UT, 2019 25. Landon Leach (--), RHP, 2021 26. Andrew Bechtold (--), 3B, 2020 27. Travis Blankenhorn (15), 3B/1B/OF, 2020 28. Charlie Barnes (--), LHP, 2020 29. Tyler Watson (--), RHP, 2020 30. David Banuelos (--), C, 2020 31. Ben Rortvedt (16), C, 2021 32. Kohl Stewart (17), RHP, 2018 33. Alberoni Nunez (--), OF, 2021 34. Derek Molina (--), RHP, 2021 35. Bryan Sammons (--) LHP, 2020 36. Bailey Ober (--), RHP, 2020 37. Pedro Garcia (45), RHP, 2021 38. Lachlan Wells (29), LHP, 2020 39. Wander Valdez, (--) 3B, 2021 40. Aaron Whitefield (59), OF, 2020 41. Ricky De La Torre (--) SS, 2021 42. Jake Reed (25) RHP, 2018 43. Jacob Pearson (--), OF, 2022 44. Yeltsin Encarnacion (--) IF, 2022 45. Ryley Widell (--) LHP, 2022 46. Andrew Vasquez (52), LHP, 2019 47. Tom Hackimer (--), RHP, 2019 48. Kerby Camacho (--), C, 2021 - released 49. Hector Lujan (--), RHP, 2020 50. Colton Burns (--), OF, 2021 51. Cody Stashak -(55), RHP, 2019 52. Jaylin Davis, (39), OF 2019 53. Alex Robles, (--), OF, 2022 54. Ruben Santana, (--), IF, 2022 55. Carlos Suniaga, (--), RHP, 2022 56. Sandy Lugo, (--), RHP, 2020 57. Nelson Molina, (47), IF, 2020 58. Ben Rodriguez (--), C/1B, 2022 59. Carson Crites (--), 2B, 2022 - released 60. Jesus Toledo (--), LHP, 2022 Here is my mid-season 2018 list (2018 off-season ranking in parenthesis, followed by ETA) : 1. Brusdar Graterol (3), RHP, 2019 2. Royce Lewis (1), SS/OF, 2020 Same age, played at the same level. Could have gone either way. Graterol has ace stuff and his performance at the same team as a pitcher was a bit more impressive than Lewis's as a hitter thus this switch. 17 errors at SS in half a season for Lewis, also a concern. Might not remain the same this off-season. These two are very close. 3. Wander Javier (2), SS, 2020 Taking a mulligan for surgery in non-throwing, non-hitting shoulder. Still a true 5 tool player. 4. Brent Rooker (4), 1B/LF, 2018 Heir apparent to Joe Mauer, even as early as this September 5. Trevor Larnach (--), OF, 2020 6. Alex Kirilloff (13) OF, 2020 Huge jump because he delivered with the stick - fielding still an issue. Larnach similar player, but better defensively and more of a pure hitter, thus the ranking 7. Luis Arraez (14), IF, 2019 Could be the heir apparent to Brian Dozier starting in 2019. Purest hitter in the organization, glove will play fine in the least challenging position in the diamond. 8. Misael Urbina (--) OF, 2023 True five tool talent, he can fly through these rankings if he responds as a pro. Still 16. 9. Nick Gordon (16), IF, 2018 Ranking before his injury. Second half disappearances every season signal endurance/conditioning concern. 150 lb frame does not help 10. DaShawn Keirsey (--) OF, 2022 5 tool player looks a lot like Joe Benson from here. 11. Tyler Wells (17), RHP, 2020 The most consistent Twins' pitcher for the last two seasons; surprised he has not gained much momentum. 12. Blayne Enlow (7), RHP, 2021 13. Yunior Severino (23), IF, 2022 14. Akil Baddoo (11), OF, 2020 15. Ryan Jeffers (--), C, 2020 If he stays at catcher can be a tremendous asset for the Twins. 60+ power and 50+ contact already. 16. Michael Montero (15), RHP, 2021 17. Stephen Gonsalves (9), LHP, 2018 Disappointing season, esp. since his weakness (quality and command and control of the fastball) became even worse this season. Still helium in the national lists; sell high candidate. 18. LaMonte Wade (22), OF, 2018 19. Tyler Jay (12), LHP, 2018 20. Jovani Moran (20), LHP, 2019 21. Lewin Diaz (10), 1B, 2020 22. Travis Blankenhorn (27), 3B/1B/OF, 2020 Tremendous start, not so hot when the temps rose... 23. Lewis Thorpe (21), LHP, 2019 Might need another season to shake the spider webs. Pre-injury FB was at 95-97 at close to 70; now down to 92-93 and about 50-55 24. Yeltsin Encarnacion (44) IF, 2022 25. Victor Herredia (--) C/1B, 2023 26. Charlie Barnes (28), LHP, 2020 27. Andrew Vasquez (46), LHP, 2019 28. Jean Carlos Arias (19), CF, 2020 29. Zander Wiel (--), 1B/OF, 2018 Should receive consideration for minor league player of the year honors for the Twins 30. Jimmy Kerrigan (--), OF, 2018 31. Jeferson Morales (--), C, 2023 32. Taylor Grzelakowski (--) C, 2020 33. Jim Caceres (--) SS, 2023 34. Ben Rortvedt (31), C, 2021 Still not much of progress as a hitter, small for a catcher, arm exposed at Fort Myers. 35. Cole Sands (--), RHP, 2021 36. Jordan Balazovic (--), RHP, 2021 37. Landon Leach (25), RHP, 2021 38. Bryan Sammons (35) LHP, 2020 39. Ricky De La Torre (41) SS, 2021 40. Ruben Santana, (54), IF, 2022 41. Charles Mack (--) SS, 2023 42. Andrew Bechtold (26), 3B, 2021 Along with David Banuelos and Jose Miranda, the biggest drops as far as position players go 43. Wander Valdez, (39) 3B, 2021 44. Nomar Urdanetta (--) SS, 2023 45. David Banuelos (30), C, 2021 46. Jacob Pearson (43), OF, 2022 47. Jose Miranda (18), IF, 2021 48. Cody Stashak (51), RHP, 2019 49. Josh Winder (--), RHP, 2021 50. Jake Reed (42) RHP, 2018 51. Alberoni Nunez (33), OF, 2021 52. Pedro Garcia (37), RHP, 2021 53. Mark Contreras (--), OF, 2020 54. Jaylin Davis, (52), OF 2019 55. Lachlan Wells (38), LHP, 2020 56. Carlos Suniaga, (55), RHP, 2022 57. Chris Williams (--) 1B, 2021 58. Griffin Jax (--) RHP, 2020 First time he has been included in my lists; full time pro now with no Air Force responsibilities. Still lots of work to do. 59. Bailey Ober (36), RHP, 2020 60. Trevor Casanova (--) C, 2021 Dropped: Chris Paul (24), UT, 2019 Tyler Watson (29), RHP, 2020 Kohl Stewart (32), RHP, 2018 Derek Molina (34), RHP, 2021 Aaron Whitefield (40), OF, 2020 Ryley Widell (45) LHP, 2022 Tom Hackimer (47), RHP, 2019 Hector Lujan (49), RHP, 2020 Colton Burns (50), OF, 2021 Alex Robles, (53), OF, 2022 Sandy Lugo, (56), RHP, 2020 Nelson Molina, (57), IF, 2020 Ben Rodriguez (58), C/1B, 2022 Jesus Toledo (60), LHP, 2022

Yes. They were almost good enough. But fell short at the end...

Don't you think that the Eddie's, especially Rosario, stepped up this season?

It was a long long time ago. Even Santana and Liriano were 21 each when they started a game with the Twins. El Guapo pitched in relief as a 19 year old in the 1990s but you have to go all the way to 1971 for a 20 year old to make a start with the Twins. He is hereby circled, in his second season with the Twins. Stated as a 19 year old in 1970. Only 9 times since the Twins moved to Minnesota have started 20 year old or younger. And only 7 pitchers. Here they are: Bert Blyleven in '71 20 Bert Blyleven in '70 19 Tom Hall in '68 20 Jim Olom in '66 20 Dave Boswell in '65 20 Dave Boswell in '64 19 Jim Roland in '63 20 Jim Manning in '62 18 Gerry Arrigo in '61 20

Enjoy the next few months then. He has a new baby on the way. I am not sure that he will not hang up his cleats.

I think so. With Dozier, Mauer, Santana, Morrison, Lynn gone they got about $70 million to spend getting some real difference makers. I really do not see Gordon as much as an option, other than trade bait. They can package him with one of their lefty OFs and a mid-level arm like Gonsalves and try to go after a difference maker as well. Figured that between these prospects and that $70 mil, they can get 4 difference makers. An ace that would slot ahead of Berrios and Romero, an 8th and a 9th inning arms, and a stick. They can try to re-sign Escobar to be the full time second baseman (or Asdrubal Cabrera or even Ian Kinsler - plenty of low cost 2B FAs) and get a 1B/DH/OF who will make a difference. Or even a catcher if Rooker deemed ready for 1B. Sano will be back at third, so will Rosario and Polanco. Buxton is a question mark in my mind, but Cave might be an ok plan B in case of further collapse.

Re: Kirilloff: I am claiming that he has a Ben Revere arm based on what I saw. Nothing anecdotal about it. 100% fact that he was double and triple bouncing balls from right to first this ST. As well as taking horrible routes. Plenty of eye witnesses in the back fields. Not sure if the arm improved since then. Will find out next time I see video. Got any evidence other than hearsay that he has an average arm? Re: Gonsalves: Mea cupla, I got lazy. I should have clarified that like Duffy, whose best pitch is the curveball, Gonsalves has an average at best fastball and his best pitch is a secondary pitch (of course it is his change up.) The problem is that, like Duffey, if you do not have an above average at least fast ball with good control and command, you will not survive in a major league rotation for long. Maybe Duffey is not a good comparable because he is a righty. Still they both have average to below average fastballs. Matter of fact Gonsalves's fastball command worsened this season.

Reality check re: Mauer and college

I think that the issue here is that your #3 might be my #5. I always refer to a #X starter in a championship level team, not the average baseball team. And I don't see Gonsalves as a #3 starter in a champion. That is Jose Berrios territory...

So you are suggesting for the Twins to keep doing the same things that have not produced good results with the hope that something might change? If their 2019 lineup looks like their 2018 lineup and their 2019 clubhouse like the 2018 clubhouse, why expect different results? Unless the Twins like the way this team has been this season, that would be the worst case scenario.

I am talking about A, Midwest League, not A+, Florida State League. Again, my concern with him is not his numbers, but his fielding...

I think that Gonzalves, Gordon, and Kiriloff are overrated. My concern with Kirilloff is that he is a DH/1B type. This season he has proven that he can hit in the Midwest League. But even Kennys Vargas at about the same age (21 vs 20) hit .318/.419/.610 in that League. His arm is not strong at all. I saw him at Spring training triple bounce one throw from RF to 1B and double bounce 2. That is Ben Revere arm. Also from what I have seen, his range is Chris Parmelee-like out there. He might be an OF, he might not. Gordon seems to start hot every season and then either June or July the wheels fall off. My take is that it is a matter of conditioning and working out getting some muscle and stamina, esp. in the off-season. He is 150 lbs soaking wet. He has to prove that he has the motivation and will power to be a professional baseball player and spend the off-season like one. Gonzalves is a lot like Duffey (best pitch curveball) but his fastball and control are not as good as Duffey's. Duffey had half a good season before he was figured out in the bigs. Is Gonsalves fixable? Could be. He still is young. However, there is no way that he should be the number 5 prospect in this system. 39:60 BB:K ratio in AAA projects organizational depth... His ceiling is number 5 starter/long man at this point

Cannot compare the only hot commodity in the market (relief pitchers) to second basemen. I think Dozier will make Howie Kendrick, Mike Moustakas, Eduardo Nunez money and depending on the rest of the season, even possibly Chase Utley, Jose Reyes, and Trevor Plouffe money. Even at his peak value he could not bring back anything more than DeLeon, could he?

In a alternate reality where objective metrics like slash lines, WAR, and WPA do not matter I just hope that a single general manager (outside of the Twin Cities) agrees... Unless we are talking about Dozier being a better banjo (or something other than baseball) player than Escobar... In that case I have no comment.

There is no way that Dozier will turn an 1 year $17M offer down when the best alternative might be a 3 year / $15M offer... This is 2018 not 2015. Things have changed.

Depends on whether Escobar is traded as well. If he is not, he would be the second baseman with Sano moving to third. If he is, Adrianza can be the second baseman. Gordon has a .609 OPS in AAA. Last thing the Twins would want to do is to yet rush another prospect in a year that they are not competitive. Frankly, I'd rather see Arraez at second base than Gordon this season...

Kennys Vargas. He is on fire at Rochester hitting .419/.455/.839 for July. Sano, Polanco, and Cave close

Having Gonsalves ahead of Littell who is a year younger, pitched better in AAA, and unlike Gonsalves, made his MLB debut, which means that the Twins prefered him to Gonsalves, makes zero sense. To have him at least 5 spots higher, makes even less sense. Javier and Rooker are underrated.

Hildenberger regressed this season. He went from a 25.9 to 22.2 K% and from 22.3 K-BB% to 15 in 2018. His FIP is 3.81, xFIP 3.71, and SIERA 3.52. His .242 BABIP and 83.3 LOB% are driving his "success". The fact that he is a late reliever reflects the state of the Twins' pen, not his abilities. Would the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Mariners handed the ball to Hildy in the 8th inning in a close game? Of course not, they have better options. Why then should the Twins? They need to find better options in order to compete.

Yes And this system is kinda loaded and this draft was not. I think that the Twins have a whole bunch of what one would call "solid" prospects (where "solid" = more than what Travis Harrison ever was), but it is a bit thin on the top. I have been doing my mid-season top 60 this week after all the signings are done and I'd venture to say that other than maybe 4-5 players, it is hard to find players beyond that "solid" layer. They all have certain flaws. Which, of course, they may overcome at some point. But that "solid" layer is very thick (maybe even to 20-30 deep) for the Twins.

I have no idea what a "typical second round pick" is. Really. Nothing typical about the draft. Each player is unique.

The last 3 games he has been very good: 3GS, 13 IP, 12 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 18 K. The problem I have with that line is the 3-1/3 IP/GS. For the season he is 4-2/3 IP per GS. Not exactly certain that he will get the stamina to be an MLB starter. Also, pre surgery the FB was at 95-97 and looked close to 60-65. Now it is at 91-93 and looks like 50-55. Maybe the pen is in his future. Maybe not. Regardless, he has a lot of questions, but he is young enough to answer. I think that he is ranked fairly...

So? The Twins will be better off without Dozier than with Dozier taking reps from a prospect or someone who they need to evaluate in the second half.