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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    Switch that around: Berrios is willing to go to arbitration for $375K after he did not accept extension offers the last 2 offseasons. This is closer to the truth.
  2. Thrylos
    Um. Sale is 30. And he is an ace. He is a year older than Gerrit Cole.
  3. Thrylos
    Sale plus $35M. And the Twins will be better for it, and probably the Red Sox as well...
  4. Thrylos
    They did. He wants to go to arbitration for $300K difference and did not agree to a fair extension. They should show him the door while he still has some value. It is clear that Berrios matters more to Berrios than the Twins matter to him.
  5. Thrylos
    Been there, done that already. Both of them did not agree to an extension when Kepler and Polanco accepted.
  6. Thrylos
    The ranking of a team's assets is relative to a particular trade partner and their needs. For example: The Mets allegedly wanted Buxton for Syndergaard straight up. Would they have traded Syndergaard for Berrios straight up? I doubt it. Also, for a team that wants to save some money and rebuild, someone like Kirilloff and Lewis is much more valuable than someone like Kepler or Polanco. Like hitting and pitching, the greatest importance of value is situational
  7. Thrylos
    Lawyerson has 4 pitches: FB, CH, CU, SL. FB is 92-94 right now with plus command and above average movement. CH and SL are above average with plus flashes. Needs to improve command. CU is a work in progress and might just drop, if the CH command improved. Definitely room for velo improvement with mechanics. Never pitched in top programs and coached with top coaches. More after I see him this coming ST...
  8. Thrylos
    I think that the 4 most likely to contribute in 2020 at the MLB level (from the ones who have not been there in 2019) are: Brent Rooker, Jhon Duran, Brooks Raley, and Ryan Mason, in that order. Four relative unknowns I'd keep an eye on: Three 2019 picks who likely all will start the season at Cedar Rapids but seem to be fast movers: Pitchers Matt Canterino, 2nd round and Cody Laweryson, 14th round, and middle infielder Spencer Steer 3rd Round. I'd also watch Wander Valdez (okay he is not relatively unknown) who had a growth spurt last season, and will likely start in E-town with an outside change in also playing at Cedar Rapids.
  9. Thrylos
    I would take their results with a huge grain of salt, basically because their sample is a. small, and b. restricted to a period 10 seasons ago. Their curve was introduced here, and here is how it was constructed: The other fail here is that they do not bother to show variation of range or even standard deviation from that data. Part of the issue here is that a lot of the pitchers who are not that great as starters just go away after age 26 or so (or they move to the pen; check Joe Nathan's or Glen Perkins's curves as starters - and both are included there.) Plus a lot of players just blow their arms. So, to talk about quality pitchers and what an aging curve looks like for a good pitcher, it would have been more meaningful to get pitchers who have satisfied the following criteria: a. They pitched for more than 10 seasons, b. their ERA+/FIP- is on the top 25% of the pitchers, and then look what happens. For every Greinke and Velander there are about 50 Duffys, Romeros, Guardados, Hawkinses, or Mayses, and including those pitchers in the graph, is just noise, not meaningful data...
  10. Thrylos
    About 2 years ago I was really high on Buxton to the Pirates for Cole and Marte. That bird flew. However, they can trade him to the Pirates (along with some prospects if necessary) for Archer, Marte, and someone like Keone Kela and call it a day. it will be an improvement all ways.
  11. Thrylos
    Good enough unless he is hurt again? The Twins should not count at him playing more than 87 games a season, because that was his average the last 4 seasons (he gets a mulligan for this first MLB season) along with below league average hitting. If the Twins could had trade him straight up for Syndergaard, they were not too smart not to do it...
  12. Thrylos
    Kirilloff needs to get better than a .756 OPS in AA before he is considered an "option". Rooker had a .933 OPS in AAA. Maybe there was some confusion between the two, as far as internal options go.
  13. Thrylos
    They need at least one more lefty in the pen, hopefully 2. Jake McGee is allegedly available and was very good away from Coors. Much more of a need than a corner IF. I'd love to see what Rooker can do. They can sign someone like Neil Walker for a utility type; much better than Astrudillo. They also need an ace, if they are to compete in the post-season, but they don't need one right now. They can wait until the trading deadline.
  14. Thrylos
    They still do, last time I checked. It is not over.
  15. Thrylos
    Still about a month and a half until pitchers and catchers report, but so far it seems that they kept the status quo and replaced Gibson with Bailey and Perez with Hill, which is an improvement, albeit a small one. I guess they are betting on natural improvement by the young core, both pitching and position players, Pineda yet another year removed from TJ, Arraez over Schoop for a full season, Buxton healthy, etc... Can argue that, the liveliness of the baseball being a wild card, this 2020 team should likely be better than the 2019 team, based on that, and should be the favorite to win the Central. That said, the bar should be at being relevant in the postseason, something that has not happened since 1991. They need an ace and at least a lights out bullpen arm to get there, and I hope that they go after them with trades.
  16. Thrylos
    a. Never is a long time. Pohlad got 2 World Series and had the Twins' payroll on the top half of the league's payroll in the late 80s - early 90s. b. (The facts for this are here.) The Minnesota Twins had $14 Million operating income (AKA "profit") last season. The were half a big contract away from losing money. It is not like they are making a whole bunch of $. From that previous link, their franchise value is $1.2 Billion (btw they are 23rd in value in MLB, and their player payroll was 18th, so they are overspending if anything.) That $14 million return of an $1.2 Billion investment is 1.16%, which is way way under-performing even savings accounts. If anything, the Twins are overspending, if you look at it as a business; in other words, they are investing more in their business to reap future profits. c. Also, the last few seasons the Twins have invested more money than ever in player development, coaches, facilities, academies, etc. They must have quadrupled their previous investment in that area by now, and that has started to pay dividends and will continue to do so in an even higher degree.
  17. Thrylos
    Felix Hernandez earned $217,500,000 from baseball in his career. Why in anyone's imagination would he sign a minor league contract? He does not need the money, and if he feels like pitching for fun, he can go pitch to his kids in his local community in the Seattle area.
  18. Thrylos
  19. Thrylos
    Too early to tell. It really depends on the Twins' moves this offseason, his offseason prep work/conditioning, and spring training performance of all the pitchers who are competing for a spot in the rotation. Even with Pineda out for a bit, the hope here is that the Twins do not need another arm in the majors and let him build up some endurance. His max of 102 IP is not much, but he is just 21. I'd rather see him get close to 150 or so this season and make the transition in 2021. However, if he is dominating and the Twins are in contention, it will make no sense not to get him up with the club as a starter. Delegating him to the pen makes no sense right now.
  20. Thrylos
    Gotta love the platitudes. For the record, here are the players the Royals traded before and during the 2015 season, with their ages in 2020, and what they did in MLB after they were traded in parentheses.) Kyle Bartsch (29, never made it to MLB) Aaron Brooks (30, 5.38 FIP, 1.413 WHIP, 27 GS in 2.5 seasons) Aaron Crow (33, never played again in MLB) Brandon Finnegan (27, 5.30 FIP, 1.426 WHIP, 44 GS in 3.5 seasons) Johnny Giavotella (32, 90 OPS+, 235 games, out of MLB in 2017) Ryan Jackson (32, never played again in MLB) John Lamb (29, 5.11 FIP, 1.604 WHIP, 27 GS in 3 seasons) Sean Manaea (28, 4.10 FIP, 1.195 WHIP, 85 GS in 4 seasons) Cody Reed (27, 5.09 FIP, 1.596 WHIP, 20 GS in 4 seasons) If any team is going to win a world series by "mortgaging" that kind of a "future", it should be silly not to do. Only Manea is a worthwhile player and no better than a number 3 starter in a champion, when healthy (and he is not.) The Royals did not mortgage any future to win. Their problems after they won was that: a. they decided to not spend any money to remain competitive b. they did not draft well, c. they did not sign good international free agents. But that was after 2015. Facts... And, yes, the Twins better start trading prospects before they turn into pumpkins or just expire...
  21. Thrylos
    Bit of a background on Steven Matz: He is a 4th generation Mets' fan who lives in Long Island and he and his family are imbibed in that community and he is very popular locally. He is married to a country singer and moved his offseason home to Nashville. I just don't see Minnesota in his future. Just sayin'
  22. Thrylos
    Thorpe is a back of the rotation starter at best. Not sure his upside if he moves to the pen. I do not consider someone who made the majors a "prospect" any more, by definition. He made it He is a major leaguer and part of the MLBPA. From the ones who did not play in the majors in 2019, as far as position players go, Rooker and Raley are the too most likely to surprise with their contributions in 2020. As far as pitchers go, Jhoan Duran is the obvious pick, with potentially Ryan Mason and Bailey Ober contributing in the pen.
  23. Thrylos
    Good signing. Would allow some of the youngsters sloted for the pen to be included in trade(s) for a starter (or 2).
  24. Thrylos
    Blankenhorn looked like a different man this Spring when I saw him at Fort Myers. He gained a good twenty pounds of muscle during the offseason and gained some pop. Still has pretty decent issues as far as pitch recognition, contact, and OBP go, which is exactly the opposite of Arraez. A high contact, high OBP player, like Arraez, can make the transition to the majors pretty fast because pitch recognition is a skill that translates. The trick there is catching up to the fastball and laying off good stuff out of the zone, which is much more difficult to do in the majors. Back to Blackenhorne: He used to look a lot like Levi Michael, now he looks more like Travis Harrison, and unless he fixes his issues, his career will mirror that of these two... He projects as a corner OF now btw (still awful with the glove) and the logjam there is huge in the organization.
  25. Thrylos
    Yamaguchi has 2 pitches. He projects as a reliever in MLB. I guess to answer that question is because they thought that Romo will help them more.
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