Thrylos

In case I missed something he has been on vacation...

5 starters, 10 relievers, 13 position players . Non-starting starters inactivated.

Need to figure out what they are looking for. And pitchers is not what they are looking for. But Kepler will be a good start. Add Plouffe, which will solve one big problem and then figure out what else they might be looking for. Add Gordon, if you have to. A true ace is one of the hardest commodities to find, compared to a corner OF/1B

Sorry for having the audacity to have an opinion on what needs to be changed in the Twins' organization to make this team a winner, which might conflict with yours

I think that Kepler might be a wonderful sell high trade chip at this point. I'd love to see the Twins try to package him for one of the Mets' starters.

Have you seen Buxton try to hit a curve ball. At any level? That is the reality and not what Trout could do or did whenever.

They are likely working at San Diego State University. USC is a good 3 hrs North of there, making it impractical to live in SD and work out in LA.

I do not see anything that includes as Twins' prospect as a photo. I see the writeup. The only "Twins' prospect" I know of who work with House is (ahem) Scott Diamond.

Re: Stewart. Right now he projects to be Nick Blackburn. As a matter of fact Blackburn struck out more batters than Stewart in A+. That's why he is there. I'd love to hear your original argument why Stewart is that low and why he is better than the players ranked above him. Polanco is not number one. Berrios is. I think that you missed the context here. Last season I had Polanco ahead of Buxton and it was no joke. The link to the explanation back then is up there... This was a hypothetical answer to a hypothetical question. My criteria do not allow Polanco or Buxton to be in this list, since they both played in the majors. This is not about Polanco, he graduated. We could have had that conversation last season, and then I better hear some original arguments (like the ones I present supporting my ranking,) to support your argument. It is fine to have different points of view. I just do not got the everyone-else-says-so point of view as a supportive argument.

Thought you gave Rosario to the Brewers I really thing that the Duda + Mejia for Plouffe + Gibbons + does not make much sense. Not a fan of Duda. The guy is worse on the OF than Willingham or Arcia. Career -33.4 UZR/150 1900 innings. Compare to about -10 for Willingham in his Twins' years and -13 in 1700 innings for Arcia. And I'd rather have Vargas rotate with Park in the DH/1B role Duda is a stiff. Really. Willingham is a ballerina compared to this guy. Seriously. [] If the Mets want Plouffe, I'd start the discussing with Matt Harvey. Ryan has done enough dumpster diving and you have one day to repair that. And instead of Mejia who cannot start right away, I will ask for Hansel Robles. Better stuff, better make up and not afraid to throw inside And then see what the Mets want in addition to Plouffe. I do not see them needing pitching, so I would be more than happy to toss Kepler and Gordon their way. So Plouffe, Kepler, & Gordon +? for Harvey and Robles. Step 1 to fix the pen. Step 2: Move Phil Hughes to the closer position and Perkins to the LH Set up position, Robles to the RH set up role and Jepsen to the 7th. Now that start to look like a pen. Rotation of Harvey, Santana, Gibson, May, Nolasco does not look bad either, with a couple of decent arms in AAA. Milone is a problem that needs to be taken care of and I would try to get a low level prospect or two for him. However, The first thing I would do though, is to send home Mr Antony, Radcliff, Krivsky, Johnson, and every other baseball operations front office person who has been around more than 10 years and replace them with fresh blood with 21st century thinking. Second, I'd cut half the scouting department, and replace it with analyst types. And I'd combine scouting and analytics and have that headed by an analytics person. That would make certain that when Ryan came in the next day, he'd re-retire for good.

No love for Palka? Also I think that Minier will be mostly an OF from now on. Another name that is missing from the EST is that of CF Jean Carlos Arias who just turned 18 last week and dominated the DSL last season. Read in more than one reports from there that he is a true 5 tool player and look forward to have a look at him this Spring. I think that he will get Palacios-like helium this time next season

Here is the thing (and of course it is another CBA posturing situation, like the DH in the NL) : Because of service time considerations, top prospects are not going to be the 26th (and/or the 27th and 28th) man. So the 26th man will be the 3rd catchers, the 30 year old AAA veteran pitch hitters, etc. If implemented will give 30 MLB jobs to the likes of Eric Fryer, Doug Bernier, and Darin Mastroiannis of the world at near league minimum. Don't expect any real impact, other than further talent erosion

I think that he had to have 2 from each team, so not necessarily the best stories out there. If I were to think about intriguing stories regarding Twins' players in 2016, Sano would not be on the list, because he is a known quantity. The other guy in the list, is indeed intriguing. But so is Nolasco and Mauer, because if these 2 rewind and play in 2016 at the level they played in 2013, 2016 will be a different story for the Twins...

Agreed. On an average team he would be the 4-5th guy or so. The hypothesis is that the Twins are planning to content, so players like that, better be the last guy. Also agreed that you don't need 7 shut down guys. But you need a good 3-4 to content. The problem with the Twins' pen is that it is mostly around average. Here is the average AL reliever (- ERA) : 8.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.29 WHIP Here are how the 2015 Twins' pen lines up against that average (ordered w/Ks, numbers above bold, below italics): May (RP splits) 10.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.21 WHIP O' Rourke 9.8 K/9, 6.1 BB/9, 1.41 WHIP Perkins 8.5 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 1.19 WHIP Abad 8.5 K/9, 3.6 Bb/9, 1.34 WHIP AVERAGE 8.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.29 WHIP Jepsen 7.6 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.14 WHIP Graham 7.5 K/9, 3 BB/9, 1.48 WHIP Tonkin 7.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.29 WHIP Pressly 7.2 K/9, 3.9 Bb/9, 1.41 WHIP Fien 5.8 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, 1.09 WHIP Thompson 4.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.33 WHIP So I see 2 pitchers consistent above average (I included Jepsen's Full season numbers, Abad, and excluded the pitchers no longer with the organization) That does not look the pen of a contending team, does it? To look more like a contender's pen, it needs at least 2 pitchers at the May/Perkins level or (preferably) above. Add Jepsen and Fien and someone who could pitch more than 2 innings and you are looking at no room for Tonkin, if the Twins want a contending team's pen. So basically, the Twins are living on a prayer hoping that 2 of the Spring Training invitees Chargois, Burdi, Melotakis, Rogers, are those 2 players they need, otherwise, another season of mediocrity city. Thus the frustration in the Twins Territory about this off-season.

I would not add Park. He is not a prospect. He will be 30 this season. For some silly reason he may qualify for the rookie of the year, but he should not, like Ichiro should had not. My 2014 top 10 was: 1. Miguel Sano 3B 2. Jorge Polanco SS 3. Byron Buxton OF 4. Alex Meyer RHP 5. Jose Berrios RHP 6. Amaurys Minier 1B/3B/OF 7. Kohl Stewart RHP 8. Eddie Rosario OF 9. Lewin Diaz 1B 10. Nick Burdi RHP Sano and Rosario are out. I had Kepler at 15, but he would be much higher. 2016 top 5 are: 1. Jose Berrios RHSP 2. Tyler Jay LHSP 3. Nick Burdi RHRP, 4. Stephen Gonsalves LHSP, 5. Lewin Diaz 1B/DH, I'd still take Polanco over Buxton,(the same argument that made here last year, still holds true, and that was before Buxton's hitting was exposed, if anyone wonders for the Polanco over Buxton; that surprised a few last season) both over Meyer and Meyer over Berrios, even though that last gap has been closing a bit (Meyer's stuff did not go south this season, his confidence and his mechanics did. And the Rochester Pitching coach, Mason, paid for it. Meyer has the best stuff in the organization bar non. Period.) so 2-4 in my 2015 could be the top 3 here: 1. Jorge Polanco SS 2. Byron Buxton OF 3. Alex Meyer RHP I'd take Kepler over Diaz likely, but not over Gonsalves, so we are looking at: 4. Jose Berrios RHSP 5. Tyler Jay LHSP 6. Nick Burdi RHRP, 7. Stephen Gonsalves LHSP, 8. Max Kepler, OF 9. Lewin Diaz 1B/DH, and 10. JT Chargois RHRP to round up the top 10.

Add Buxton and that is balanced TOO MUCH Nolasco >= Garza so that is a wash Suzuki < = Lucroy and the concussions are a huge risk Tonkin, one of the lefties and someone like Reed/Peterson (both blocked by better RPs) about right for Smith So they need to see whether they can use Tonkin + Darnell/Dean + Reed/Peterson for Smith

I don't want Lucroy. I'd trade Cabbage for Smith in a heartbeat

Shortly removed? Hicks is out of options this season. So about 3 seasons removed...

The Twins' starting catcher in 2016 will be Murphy. And I would not take Lucroy over Murphy at this point.

Disagree. Tonkin pitched 60 games at the MLB level. Here are his numbers: 60 games, 53.7 IP, 3.35 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 7.5 K/9, 19.3 % K% 3 BB/9, 1.32 WHIP (.292 BABIP) Compared to 2015 average AL reliever: 3.77 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.29 WHIP (.290 BABIP) Tonkin has been slightly below average reliever. A decent guy to be the last BP arm in a contender, but that is about it

Great stuff! Good to hear that he is working on a fourth pitch. A cutter is not a pitch that many Twins or many lefties throw and it can be a nice weapon for him. Got to love the confidence.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch --- I am trying something new this year. Instead of summarizing the top 40 Twins' prospects list, I am doing some actual analysis as well, which I believe might be telling for the system. This is the last segment in this series. You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2015 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2015 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference. You can find players 36-40 here, players 31-35 here, players 26-30 here, players 21-25 here, players 16-20 here, players 11-15 here, players 6-10 here, and players 1-5 here. Here are the top 40 with position indicated and 2015 rank in parenthesis, along with Estimated Time of Arrival : 1. Jose Berrios RHSP (5), 2016 2. Tyler Jay (--) LHSP, 2017 3. Nick Burdi (6) RHRP, 2016 4. Stephen Gonsalves (13) LHSP, 2018 5. Lewin Diaz (9) 1B/DH, 2019 6. JT Chargois (--) RHRP, 2016 7. Wander Javier (--) SS, 2020+ 8. Jermaine Palacios (36) SS/3B, 2020 9. Nick Gordon (12) SS, 2019 10. Mitch Garver (17) C, 2017 11. Levi Michael (22), 2B, 2016 12. Mason Melotakis (--), LHRP, 2016 13. Kohl Stewart RHSP (7), 2017 14. Travis Harrison (14), OF/1B, 2017 15. Amaurys Minier (6) OF/1B, 2019 16. Jake Reed (16) RHRP, 2017 17. Lewis Thorpe (11) LHSP, 2019 18. Daniel Palka (--) OF, 2017 19. Adam Walker (21), OF, 2016 20. Felix Jorge (29), RHSP, 2018 21. Rainis Silva (24), C, 2018 22. Jean Carlos Arias (--), CF, 2020 23. Engelb Vielma SS (20), 2017 24. Luis Arraez IF (40), 2019 25. Ryan Eades RHSP (30), 2017 26. Lachlan Wells (--), LHSP, 2020 27. Huascar Ynoa (--), RHSP, 2020 28. Brusdar Graterol (--), RHSP, 2020+ 29. Brandon Peterson (27), RHRP, 2017 30. Taylor Rogers (--), LHR/SP, 2016 31. LaMonte Wade (--), CF, 2018 32. Kolton Kendrick (--), 1B/DH, 2020+ 33. Chris Paul (--) IF/OF, 2018 34. Fernardo Romero (37), RHSP, 2019 35. Yorman Landa (--), RHRP, 2018 36. Kuo Hua Lo (--), RHRP, 2018 37. Niko Goodrum (--), CF/IF, 2017 38. Travis Blankenhorn (--), 3B/1B, 2020 39. Trey Cabbage (--), IF/OF, 2020+ 40. Emmanuel Morel (--) IF, 2020+ Here is a full list of subtractions from the 2014 off-season list (that ranking in parenthesis) : Graduated: Miguel Sano 3B (1), Jorge Polanco SS (2), Byron Buxton OF (3), Alex Meyer RHP (4), Eddie Rosario OF (8), Max Kepler OF/1B (12) Traded: Chih-Wei Hu RHP (18), Alexis Tapia RHP (25) Released: Tyler Kuresa 1B (38) Retired: Mat Batts LHP (35) Dropped: Jorge Fernandez C (19), Mike Cederoth RHP (23), Max Murphy OF (26), Stuart Turner C (28) , Aaron Slegers RHP (31), Randy Rosario RHP (32), Zach Larson OF (33),Todd Van Steensen RHP (34), Moises Gomez RHP (39) For a total of 19 players, so a good 47.5% turnover from last season Here is the list by position: 1. Jose Berrios RHSP (5), 2016 13. Kohl Stewart RHSP (7), 2017 20. Felix Jorge (29), RHSP, 2018 25. Ryan Eades RHSP (30), 2017 27. Huascar Ynoa (--), RHSP, 2020 28. Brusdar Graterol (--), RHSP, 2020+ 29. Brandon Peterson (27), RHRP, 2017 34. Fernardo Romero (37), RHSP, 2019 2. Tyler Jay (--) LHSP, 2017 4. Stephen Gonsalves (13) LHSP, 2018 17. Lewis Thorpe (11) LHSP, 2019 26. Lachlan Wells (--), LHSP, 2020 30. Taylor Rogers (--), LHR/SP, 2016 3. Nick Burdi (6) RHRP, 2016 6. JT Chargois (--) RHRP, 2016 16. Jake Reed (16) RHRP, 2017 35. Yorman Landa (--), RHRP, 2018 36. Kuo Hua Lo (--), RHRP, 2018 12. Mason Melotakis (--), LHRP, 2016 10. Mitch Garver (17) C, 2017 21. Rainis Silva (24), C, 2018 5. Lewin Diaz (9) 1B/DH, 2019 32. Kolton Kendrick (--), 1B/DH, 2020+ 33. Chris Paul (--) IF/OF, 2018 38. Travis Blankenhorn (--), 3B/1B, 2020 39. Trey Cabbage (--), IF/OF, 2020+ 11. Levi Michael (22), 2B, 2016 24. Luis Arraez IF (40), 2019 40. Emmanuel Morel (--) IF, 2020+ 7. Wander Javier (--) SS, 2020+ 8. Jermaine Palacios (36) SS/3B, 2020 9. Nick Gordon (12) SS, 2019 23. Engelb Vielma SS (20), 2017 14. Travis Harrison (14), OF/1B, 2017 15. Amaurys Minier (6) OF/1B, 2019 18. Daniel Palka (--) OF, 2017 19. Adam Walker (21), OF, 2016 22. Jean Carlos Arias (--), CF, 2020 31. LaMonte Wade (--), CF, 2018 37. Niko Goodrum (--), CF/IF, 2017 Clearly Catcher and LHRP are the weakest positions as far as quality prospects go. As far as LHRPs, some of the starters in this list, primarily Taylor Rogers and Lachlan Wells, could end up as relievers. As far as catchers go, John Hicks, who is ineligible for this list, will likely be the first one called up if need arises. Stuart Turner, who dropped from the list, is about a season or two away and Carlos Paulino, who did not make this list, can also help this season if needed. Definitely Catcher is a position in need and one the Twins should probably target at some point. Here is the list broken down by ETA: 1. Jose Berrios RHSP (5), 2016 3. Nick Burdi (6) RHRP, 2016 6. JT Chargois (--) RHRP, 2016 11. Levi Michael (22), 2B, 2016 12. Mason Melotakis (--), LHRP, 2016 19. Adam Walker (21), OF, 2016 30. Taylor Rogers (--), LHR/SP, 2016 2. Tyler Jay (--) LHSP, 2017 10. Mitch Garver (17) C, 2017 13. Kohl Stewart RHSP (7), 2017 14. Travis Harrison (14), OF/1B, 2017 16. Jake Reed (16) RHRP, 2017 18. Daniel Palka (--) OF, 2017 23. Engelb Vielma SS (20), 2017 25. Ryan Eades RHSP (30), 2017 29. Brandon Peterson (27), RHRP, 2017 37. Niko Goodrum (--), CF/IF, 2017 4. Stephen Gonsalves (13) LHSP, 2018 20. Felix Jorge (29), RHSP, 2018 21. Rainis Silva (24), C, 2018 31. LaMonte Wade (--), CF, 2018 33. Chris Paul (--) IF/OF, 2018 35. Yorman Landa (--), RHRP, 2018 36. Kuo Hua Lo (--), RHRP, 2018 5. Lewin Diaz (9) 1B/DH, 2019 9. Nick Gordon (12) SS, 2019 17. Lewis Thorpe (11) LHSP, 2019 15. Amaurys Minier (6) OF/1B, 2019 24. Luis Arraez IF (40), 2019 34. Fernardo Romero (37), RHSP, 2019 7. Wander Javier (--) SS, 2020+ 8. Jermaine Palacios (36) SS/3B, 2020 22. Jean Carlos Arias (--), CF, 2020 26. Lachlan Wells (--), LHSP, 2020 27. Huascar Ynoa (--), RHSP, 2020 28. Brusdar Graterol (--), RHSP, 2020+ 32. Kolton Kendrick (--), 1B/DH, 2020+ 38. Travis Blankenhorn (--), 3B/1B, 2020 39. Trey Cabbage (--), IF/OF, 2020+ 40. Emmanuel Morel (--) IF, 2020+ Even though six out of the top 12 prospects from the 2014 list have already graduated, it is great to see that there is a good pipeline of top 15 talent MLB-ready (ETA 2016) and close to MLB-ready (ETA 2017) in a variety of positions. The Long Term (ETA 2018, 2019-2020+) is sure to change and some of those players might move up the ranks and might arrive faster than it is thought. It is also certain that additional players not on the list (or even in the organization) today, will be able to be top contributors from 2018-2020. Another impressive and even serendipitous situation is that the Twins' weakest point, the bullpen, likely has the strongest immediate and short term pipeline. Looking forward to see these prospects play this Spring and throughout the season. It has been some work, but very enjoyable work for me to do these lists. http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5152/7098789651_02fb66b359_z.jpg

I got the summary from 1-40 and meta analysis here.

Sure. The PAs were organization/manager choice. He worked with what was given to him.

Arcia is 24. I think that there is plenty of room for improvement with the glove, if the Twins stick with him in one position. He already is better than players like Willingham/Parmelee/Young et al. who have been trotted out there. Plouffe was horrible with the glove. He improved in a couple years. Arcia deserves that chance. And a set position, being left or right. Give him a position and let him play there. Without Arcia this team will get neutralized by RHPs, especially hard throwing ones, exactly the type that Arcia has been feeding off most of his career.