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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    I'd argue that now that the Twins have extended Kepler, they will need an Ace more than Kirilloff who between Kepler and Larnach, is pretty much redundant. I think that a package based on Kirilloff plus a couple more prospects will get them an Ace without needing to add Lewis. Gerrit Cole was traded for Michael Feliz (24 yo reliever with 5.13 ERA), Jason Martin (22 yo OF not on their top 30 prospects), Colin Moran (23 yo 3B who was not ranked as a prospect after 2014), and Joe Musgrove (25 year old starter/reliever with a 4.57 ERA who was for one season #83 total prospect at BA) What's the Twins' equivalent? Jake Reed, Jordan Gore, LaMonte Wade, Stephen Gonsalves? Not even Kirilloff
  2. Thrylos
    Here is how the Twins' rotation ranks in the majors: 12th in ERA 13th in FIP 21st in K% 15th in K-BB% 7th in WHIP (.280 BABIP) 16th in SIERA Pretty mediocre. Dead smack in the middle of MLB rotations. The bats and some timely individual starter performances have been driving the Twins' success so far this season. To be competitive in the post season they will need an Ace who will push Berrios to 2 and Odorizzi/Perez to 3 & 4.
  3. Thrylos
    Cabbage looked much different this Spring than last season. Gained considerable muscle and was more confident in the batter's box. Good to see that it translates into results. Cesar has to be the pleasant surprise in this list. Makes Tyler Austin's loss more palatable.
  4. Thrylos
    Of course Marwin wins in win probability added.
  5. Thrylos
    I'd take Reynolds's 223 strikeouts along with his 44 bombs, .381 wOBA, and 127 OPS+ and wRC+ that season any season. No Twins player not named Herman ever hit so many home runs in a season. Looking at strikeouts in a vacuum does not make much sense...
  6. Thrylos
    Gordon is the mystery here. He was on the DL IL for "stomach troubles.". Kirilloff's situation is a wrist and those can linger for a while. Gonsalves has an elbow stiff "forearm" issue that they are really cautious about. As far as the other MLB IL people go: Moya is off the IL and optioned to AAA. Magill is on a rehab assignment at AAA and pitching quite well. As far as Reed goes, stick a fork in him, but they will not admit it in public. Soon to move to the 60-day IL if they need a 40-man spot for some reason.
  7. Thrylos
    Two years ago Aaron Judge led the majors in strikeouts with 208. He also hit 52 HRs and had a .284/.422/.627 slash line. Strikeouts are a part of the game and just a single performance indicator. Cannot use them to (ahem) judge a player without looking at the whole picture.
  8. Thrylos
    It is an non issue. Facts: a. Marwin Gonzalez is hitting .184/.244/.289 and that is after he went 2 for 4 with 1 HR last night. b. Miguel Sano had only 1 full month out of his 19 in the majors with OPS under .718
  9. Thrylos
    Magill for Vasquez. Moya has options and as soon as Harper is pitching ok, he will be fine.
  10. Thrylos
    And a 2R single for a total of -.120 WPA. He let 3 runs in and got one hitter out. Not sure in what kind of universe this is "solid"...
  11. Thrylos
    Hildenberger optioned, Vasquez outrighted/DFA'd; Eades and Romero up. In four days: Stewart's starts in Odorizzi's spot, Odorizzi to the pen, the least effective reliever with options down. I don't care if it's little league or major leagues. If you cannot throw strikes you don't belong.
  12. Thrylos
    This is just good roster management. De Jong was done for 3-4 games so they get another guy who can pitch today if needed, and they can send him down tomorrow. it is smart to make the last spot of the pen a revolving door with minor leaguers; the hottest/freshest gets the job, until he falters.
  13. Thrylos
    I'd take Will Smith off their hands too
  14. Thrylos
    Pressly was not the Twins top pen arm. He had 3.40 ERA and 1.364 WHIP. The inability to turn Pressly into what Houston did with him, cost the pitching coach and the bullpen coach their jobs.
  15. Thrylos
    Astudillo is Kirby 2.0 at CF. Routinely jumps and takes HRs away...
  16. Thrylos
    He is what I think is going on with Romero: 2017 was the first season he pitched more than 100 innings (125), in 2018 he pitched about 145. His command of both the fastball and the slider has decreased in both seasons. He was at about 20 K-BB% in 2016, dropped down to about 14 in 2017 and about 10 in 2018. That was behind Berrios (18), Odorrizzi (13) and Gibson (12) last season. It is 5th starter territory. Since he has much higher ceiling the Twins are giving him an opportunity to improve his command (and his changeup that is still about average at best) in shorter outings in AAA this season. He can be a starter next season. Lots of players moved from relievers to starters. Sales and Clevinger are a couple of examples...
  17. Thrylos
    Poppen is 25 years old, has 3 average maybe above average pitches, FB tops at 90-91, just had a half season in AA with 4.30 FIP and 13.3 K-BB%. His ceiling is Aaron Slegers, but not quite that good (yet.)
  18. Thrylos
    I really do not understand the relative ranking of Littell, Gonzalves, Thorpe, and Stewart. Other than Littell who is 23, all the others are 24 years old. Thorpe played only 4 games above AA and his stuff has digressed since he was a top prospects. From the other 3, against MLB competition clearly Stewart was the most effective (plus he was chosen ahead of the rest as the opening day starter at Rochester.) I do not treat players who made the majors as "prospects", but if I had to rank these four, my ranking today would be: Stewart Littell Gonsalves Thorpe. They all have their faults/opportunities/things to work on and they are still young. They are all pretty much the same age. Stewart has been the most effective and Thorpe the least (injuries etc do count - ask Jason Kubel if you don't believe me) and his staff has been going the wrong way, unlike the others. Littell and Gonsalves are very similar pitches with Littell getting the node because he is younger. Bit disappointed by Enlow's ability to miss bats, based on his raw stuff. He is 20, he can still get it, but there are other ahead of him. Also I'd like to see more from Jax before I form an opinion. He is 24, he made it only to high A and did not blow out the competition in a pitcher's league... Other than that, I pretty much agree. My top 12 ranking would be: Graterol Duran Balazovic Colina Alcala Enlow Wells Stewart Moran Littell Gonsalves Thorpe (this assumes that Colina and Alcala are starters)
  19. Thrylos
    It must be even harder when this plain, uninteresting and irrelevant team sweeps you at home with two late comeback victories...
  20. Thrylos
    I'd rank Raley higher than Wade and only lower than Larnach, Kiriloff, and Rooker (these 3 mentioned in alpha and not any other order btw.) He has 5 tools vs 3 (no arm and power) for Wade, is a year younger, and had very similar performance at the same stop last season. Wade's hit and run tool is better, but Raley's other 3 tools are much better. If I were to think of a Raley comparable, it would be one of my favorite prospects who just did not make it for whatever reasons, Joe Benson...
  21. Thrylos
    Astudillo needs to be utilized more as a PH or a starter at 3B or OF. There is no excuse to keep trotting Kepler out there late in the game against LHP when close and down, if you want to win the game.
  22. Thrylos
    Here is a comparison with the 2018 team that finished 12 games under .500 Catchers: Tomas Telis, / Willians Astrudillo Wynston Sawyer - Infielders: Wilin Rosario, / Brock Stassi Adam Rosales,/ Kennys Vargas Nick Gordon (IL), - Ronald Torreyes, / Taylor Featherstone Jordany Valdespin, / Andy Wilkins Randy Cesar/Jermaine Curtis Outfielders: Brent Rooker, / Nick Buss LaMonte Wade, - Luke Raley, / Jake Cave John Andreoli, / Joe Kemmer Zander Wiel / James Ramsey PITCHERS (15) Starting Pitchers: Lewis Thorpe, / Adalberto Mejia Justin Nicolino, / Fernando Romero Zack Littell, - Chase De Jong, - Kohl Stewart. - Stephen Gonsalves (IL)- Relief Pitchers: Andrew Vasquez, - Austin Adams, / Nick Anderson Tyler Duffey, - Ryan Eades, - Preston Guilmet, / Ryne Harper Mike Morin, / Luke Bard Jake Reed, - Fernando Romero. / Alan Busenitz DJ Baxendale (IL), - Zack Weiss (IL) / John Curtiss Not sure that the 2019 team is better...
  23. Thrylos
    a. If you figure median is about 2.5 WAR for position players plus DH, that's 22.5 WAR from the starting 9. If you give 2.5 WAR to the bench/injury replacements etc, you got 25 WAR. That's +10 fWAR from 2018. I'd take that. b. Nothing scary about getting rid of mediocre pitching. I would rather have zero mediocre pitches under contract than (let's say) 3. it is a wonderful thing (but of course they have to invest in better pitching via FA and trades)
  24. Thrylos
    AL Central - Twins AL East - Red Sox AL West - Angels Wild Cards - Astros, Rays NL East - Mets NL Central - Pirates NL West - Padres Wild Cards - Diamondbacks, Phillies AL Champ: Twins over Rays NL Champ: Padres over Mets World Series Champ: Twins AL MVP - Miguel Sano AL Cy Young - Blake Snell AL Rookie of the Year - Ryne Harper AL Manager of the Year - Roco Baldelli NL MVP - Manny Machado NL Cy Young - Zack Wheeler NL Rookie of the Year - Fernando Tatis Jr NL Manager of the Year - Andy Green
  25. Thrylos
    Good stuff! Based on what I saw this Spring against MLB competition, as far as MLB- readiness goes, I'd put Larnach ahead of Kirilloff. Kirilloff is where about Lewis is with the bat, about 1+ year away. I think that this management group will avoid pushing prospects before they are ready. One arm: Edwar Colina. He is very near MLB-ready as a reliever. The Twins will try everything possible to keep him as a starter, but I just don't see it. Plus plus FB that is now at 99 and will increase in shorter appearances, plus mid 80s changeup, and a 90 mph slider that sometimes he cannot command but can be filthy are real weapons. He just does not have the endurance right now and I am not sure that it will ever happen. Whatever affiliate starts with Graterol and Colina at the top 2 rotation spots will be the one to watch this season.
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