TopGunn#22

With the recent bad news regarding Buxton's hip impingement, and even with thrilling come from behind wins against the Royals in 2 of their last 3 games, how realistic are the Twins chances without Buxton for an extended period and possibly the rest of this season? Read Lucas Seehafer's article for more details. I know we are in "BUY" mode right now, but with the news on Buxton, does that change the outlook with the news of their clear team MVP missing extensive time? Any trade now should be viewed as how it could help in 2026 but more so in 2027. I must admit, I'm kind of intrigued by the possible Angels trade ideas. Neto is just 3 years older than Culpepper. He has some swing and miss issues, but has power and speed potential that is more fully realized than Culpepper. And Neto PLAYS ! He's played in 106 out of 109 games for the Angels this season. Last year, he played in 128. In 2024, 155 games. My biggest worry with Culpepper is his proclivity to get injured. Neto is also a solid defensive SS. He gives Houston time to fully polish his skills and then you have a middle IF of Houston at SS and Neto at 2B. That would be some serious defense. Neto has 30-HR 30-SB potential. He came close in 2025 and he's on pace to come close this season. For the remainder of this season, the Twins need a SP who can allow Zebby Matthews to finish this year out in the bullpen. Detmers and Soriano would both be in the Twins starting rotation in 2027. I prefer Detmers, but both are worthy additions. But I come back to Buxton. If he misses extended time. Adding a bat like Neto could help with the rest of this season not to mention the improved defense at SS. Neto will surely have a better immediate impact on the Twins chances of winning the division or a Wild Card than Culpepper will. Neto had a WAR of 5.1 in 2024 and 5.3 last season. He's at 2.7 thru July of this year. Would Culpepper come anywhere near those numbers in the 2027-2029 seasons? A deal like the suggested Angels trades in this op not only helps the Twins THIS year in their playoff drive but in future years as well. On Luis Arraez. One of my favorite Twins players. Loved watching him grind out AB's. But this need to compare him to 2 HOF players (Tony Gwynn and Ichiro) is getting far too hyperbolic. He's a great contact hitter in an era where swinging for the fences is "The Way." But please...he is NOT Gwynn or Inchiro, even if he has 3 batting titles. He got those batting titles because other hitters have sacrificed average for power. His competition has thinned considerably when compared to past baseball seasons. He's NOT Gwynn or Ichiro and never will be.

Great information Lucas, really appreciate the analysis. It's pretty sobering stuff, especially regarding Buxton in the midst of a playoff chase. They haven't had Festa at all this year, and have had a very limited go with Sands, but Buxton is their MVP and it will hurt to be without him, possibly for the remainder of the season. With this news, I know the Twins have said they are in "BUYER" mode. But does this in any way alter their thinking, knowing they could be without Buxton for at least several weeks, and possibly the rest of the season? How realistic are the Twins chances without Buxton?

No, I'm trading Jeffers. The Twins leverage increased with the season ending injury to Langeliers and Teel going down again for the White Sox. There is no way I make a qualifying offer to Jeffers and get stuck paying him $23 million in 2027. Like the Twins did with Rick Aguilara, you can trade Jeffers and then compete to resign him as a FA for the 2027 season. To those that want to hang onto him, are you all confident he will sign back with the Twins on a nice hometown discount with Scott Boras as his agent? I didn't think so. Caratini and Jackson will be fine the rest of this season and 2027. You sell an asset like Jeffers at his peak value before he walks for nothing.

I don't think a rental of Jeffers is anywhere close to the value of Hunter Greene. But as a 26 year old with good seasons in 2024 & 2025 Greene would make a fine target. Jeffers could be part of a deal, but it would take a LOT more to move Greene to Minnesota.

This is a good start. If Mintor can stay healthy, his track record is one of consistent effectiveness. The loss of zip on his fastball is somewhat concerning, but he's a guy who "knows how to pitch." The cost was minimal. Amick never developed as the Twins had hoped.

Twins just made a move for the pen getting A.J. Mintor from the Mets. Decent LH RP. Wonder what this means for Taylor Rogers or Kody Funderburk? We traded 2 minor leaguers, the most notable being Billy Amik. Mintor WILL help.

Truly puzzling. They won't (or shouldn't) have 3 catchers for more than a couple days. This is the kind of thing that drives Twins fans crazy and just adds to the frustration with the ownership and the "brain trust" that is our FO. He wasn't mentioned, but the Twins could have also called up Kaelen Culpepper. He was to the Saints roster last Friday and seems to have recovered from his glute strain and hand injury. He hasn't played in many games since June, and I can understand the Twins feeling he needs a few more games at St. Paul. But he HAS to be a better option than Gray. Absent a Jenkins or Culpepper addition, I would have given Fedko another chance.

I remember the headliner for Carew with the Angels was Kenny Landreaux, who was a pretty good CF for awhile and later played for the Dodgers. There was Dave Engle who was a catcher and a pitcher named Paul Hartzell who never did much for the Twins, but there was at least one or two more players and if I can't remember who he/they were, there was probably a minimal impact. But that's the nature of trades. I can't remember who the Twins traded to the Reds to get Cesar Tovar, but I'll bet we won THAT trade. I remember we traded lefty Jim Merritt to the Reds in 1968 for SS Leo Cardenas. I thought both teams did well in that trade. Zoilo had faded so badly, the Twins desperately needed a GOOD SS and Cardenas fit the bill. It was very risky, giving up a young LH SP like Merritt, and in 1970 Merritt won 20 games for the Big Red Machine. But it's hard to argue the Twins trading Zoilo and Mudcat Grant to the Dodgers for Ron Perranoski, Bob Miller and Johnny Roseboro didn't work out VERY WELL for the Twins and was a big disappointment to the Dodgers. The Dodgers had lost Sandy Koufax to his arm injury and had traded Maury Wills to the Pirates and were in transition. I'm sure they expected a LOT more out of Zoilo and Mudcat. But that's the nature of trades. You win some. You lose some. But half the fun of TD is coming here and sharing thoughts and ideas. It's like trading baseball cards when we were kids. It's more art than science, but we all loved it. There is no right way or wrong way, and that's what makes it so fun to discuss and debate.

Sorry Gregg. I choose NOT to live in your utopian fandom. There is not a reality where Ryan Jeffers is a Minnesota Twin in 2027. There just isn't. It's not that I have an irrational dislike for Jeffers. I actually like him, and drafted him for my fantasy baseball team. (so in a way...I AM a GM)!! :) The irresponsible thing to do as a "GM" is to just let him walk and fail to capitalize on his value and add something back that helps the ballclub. So I 2nd what rdehring wrote and rest my case.

I'm still not sold on the Twins realistic chances to actually make the post season and have any success even if they do. While Ryan would be great to head our staff next season, I'm open to the idea of trading him if the return is GOOD. The Padres don't seem to be a good match. But the Yankees, Dodgers and Mariners DO. I think adding the Brewers and Red Sox to the mix makes sense. Maybe even the Phillies. I'd like to see what kind of packages for each of them would be possible as well. But as good an IF prospect as Lombard is, I'd almost rather get a pitching heavy return for Ryan back. Carlos LaGrange in addition to Rodriguez? If I'm trading Ryan to the Dodgers I want River Ryan along with Sirota. I agree with chpettit19 that it would be VERY HARD to get Seattle to part with Kade Anderson, but he's JUST the type of prospect you shoot for if you trade Ryan. VERY close to being an MLB pitcher with #1 potential. Maybe a trade of Ryan and Larnach to Seattle gets it done. Maybe including E-Rod to get Anderson and Arroyo. I'd have a hard time as a Twins GM saying "No" to Joe Ryan, Trevor Larnach and E-Rod for Kade Anderson and Michael Arroyo. It all depends on how "motivated" the Dodgers, Mariners, Yankees and any other teams are to win the World Series. Joe Ryan could certainly put these teams in a stronger position. The Dodgers are certainly the favorite at this point. They already have "a lot" of talented minor league OF's. Their system wouldn't be jolted too badly giving up Sirota. But I'd love to get River Ryan and have them throw in Bobby Miller with Sirota for Joe Ryan. The Dodgers have been sailing along with little to zero contributions from all 3 of these players all season. Adding Joe Ryan at little cost to the current big league roster would be motivation enough. Same with Carlos LaGrange with the Yankees. I'm not pounding the table to trade Joe Ryan, and doing so would pretty much stick a fork in the Twins for this season. But if the return were rich, and it certainly should be, with a potential bidding war for Joe Ryan, I'd be inclined to build for 2027 and beyond. The Tigers are in a similar position. How realistic is their contention this season? If Detroit keeps Skubal and then loses him without getting anything back for the 2027 season and beyond, that could be crippling for them. Ryan Jeffers should also bring back something pretty nice. The Twins could look very interesting after this trade deadline. Maybe not immediately, but with an eye on 2027 and 2028.

Much like their season, the Twins have rolled out of the All Star Break neither "Hot" nor "Cold." They've played at close to .500. So there is no definitive direction the Twins have in front of them at this time. We now come home for 3 against the Athletics and 3 against the Royals. Bobby Witt Jr. should be healthy in time to face us. I still think the Twins need to "thread the needle" and both buy and sell. I'm selling on Jeffers. He's not signing an extension with Scott Boras as his agent and Jeffers has done the Twins a solid by having a good year, raising his value to its highest ever. We have Caratini and Jackson to finish this season. Likewise, I'm selling Larnach, who has also done the Twins a solid by having his best season ever. Luke Keachall's successful move to the OF has opened up the possibility of including a minor league OF not named Jenkins in a deal that returns real value. I would also sell on Josh Bell and Taylor Rogers (if they can get anything for Rogers) and I would commit playing time to a younger bat and a younger arm. Maybe Zebby Matthews replaces Rogers in the pen for the stretch run. Guys like Royce Lewis, Austin Martin or even a minor leaguer like Hill, Soto or E-Rod could be in play if the return is young, controllable, major league talent or very close to major league, and especially pitching. Emerson Hancock is a great example. The Twins could make the playoffs this year. I'm skeptical, but the chance is there. But they are not really in a position to contend either this year or next. It's OK to move some younger talent if the trade brings back some "better" young talent. The Twins FO should have players identified and ranked from every team interested in their players. They need to be strategic and targeted about the talent they want back in any deal. The biggest question still remains Joe Ryan. It would be great to keep him and extend him. But is Ryan willing to sign an extension?

I agree Coach JT. This current losing streak is hopefully putting a damper on the "contending" momentum and injecting a dose of reality in the Twins approach. They should both BUY and SELL. Jeffers and Larnach should be moved. Bell and Rogers should be moved. Wallner should be if anyone will take him. And if an OF prospect not named Jenkins is needed to sweeten a deal to get a better player back in return, give it strong thought. But the biggest question remains...wither Joe Ryan? Can he be convinced to sign a rich extension? If there is ANY interest it needs to be pursued with vigor. But if it appears hopeless to convince Joe to sign an extension, then strong consideration must be given to trading him for the right kind of package. Joe Ryan is either part of the Twins future or not. If he's not, then real value must be acquired in return. Trades should be made with an eye toward immediate help, but even more to add talent for 2027 and beyond.

Things looked pretty good after the initial 5-2 win against the Cubs fresh out of the All Star break. But not only have the Twins lost 3 in a row, they've been clobbered in each of those 3 games.. It won't get any easier when they go up against Cleveland's Parker Messick tomorrow.

Jacksson, you make some good points but I give Shelton and his staff credit for having the courage to make the changes the team made. The real fault lies with a FO who supplied the sorry collection of talent for Shelton and his staff to work with from the get-go. Actually, I'm quite happy with Shelton and his staff. I had VERY LOW expectations for the Twins this season. Add to that the loss of Lopez (a solid #1 or #2 and All Star caliber Pitcher) and Abel (a talented young pitching prospect) and with absolutely no bullpen and it's amazing the Twins are where they're at right now. This is why selling at the trade deadline makes more sense than buying, but why I'm hoping they do both. Signing Joe Ryan to an extension would be the best news possible. Unfortunately, you need two to tango and I'm not sure Joe Ryan WANTS to sign an extension. I'd be doing everything I could to make it happen, while at the same time, if it looks increasingly unlikely, I'd consider trading him if I'm blown away by the offer. Change is coming at the deadline. More change should come this off-season. There is reason for some optimism for the Twins in the future. Shelton and his staff have guided the Twins to a better season than I expected. Problems remain, but I give them credit for a fine job so far.

With Culpepper and Houston progressing well (Culpepper should be up sometime in August I would expect) Lackey was the guy I wanted the Twins to get. Nothing against the top 2 guys, both who will probably stick at SS, but Lackey is the right player at the right time for the Twins. Ryan Jeffers time with the Twins is drawing to a close. Lackey's talent and intangibles give him an opportunity to advance through the farm system quickly and hopefully, eventually, be an All Star caliber Catcher for years to come. I loved this pick and am excited to see him begin his professional career.

Getting that initial win in Chicago was very good. I'm still straddling the fence on the Twins. I love the job Shelton has done, The Twins have exceeded all my expectations for the season. That said, there are too many flaws and just too much bad luck (losing Lopez for the season to begin with and then Abel, who has a small chance of coming back). I think this is a classic case of the Twins FO trying to thread the needle and do both...buy and sell. Jeffers is a must trade. He's gone at seasons end and Caratini and Jackson have done well. Jeffers will bring back something good. If the Yankees want him, I'd demand Carlos LaGrange or no deal. Boston is interested as are the Cubs. Jeffers will bring back something good. I'm not trading Clemens. He's just too important to team success. He plays all over the place and his defense is always solid. He's flat out better than Willi Castro. He's a better fielder everywhere and hits with far more power. But for Larnach and Josh Bell, I'm open for business. It's risky trading Larnach. He's having a career year at the plate. But his defense is still sub-par. Keaschall, Walker Jenkins or Roden are all superior defensive players and each has a chance to be a positive for the offense. We need another decent SP. If I had to give up some minor league talent to get a Robbie Ray (or someone similar) I think I'd do it. Maybe even expand the trade to include Luis Arraez. Is there a Closer out there who could be had? The big question is Joe Ryan. Trading him makes sense. His value will never be higher. But trading him, to me, effectively cuts the heart out of this plucky team. Unless the return was AWESOME, and I don't even think I can honestly define what awesome would be, I just can't trade Joe Ryan unless the Twins just collapse. Lose 7 or 8 in a row. Could Joe Ryan be traded after the season ends? Could he still be traded if there is an almost immediate Lockout/Strike? As improbable as it seems, the Twins are fully in the playoff hunt. Winning that first game at Wrigley against the Cubs was very encouraging. We have 4 games with Cleveland. We may be missing Buxton (or not) but Cleveland will surely be missing Jose Ramirez. The Twins FO is going to have to thread the needle. I don't envy their task. I can concoct all sorts of trades from the comfort of my sports den with zero consequences, If Tom Pohlad and Jeremy Zoll screw this up, there WILL be consequences.

Also love the quick write ups. Agree with tarheelstwinsfan...Are the Twins allergic to LHP? Somewhere, someplace, there has to be a Left Handed Pitcher...SP or potential RP out there the Twins have some interest in.

While I'm enjoying the Twins being a near .500 team this year, I'm not buying into the fool's gold that they are a serious contender. The object of any competent front office is to build a team that can compete for championship. It is referred to as "Their Window." I don't believe the Twins are near that window in 2026. Jeffers will be gone after the season. He's a must trade and there appear to be several suiters, the Yankees being chief among them. Larnach has had a fine season. It's his career year. I don't think he will repeat it, and there is an obvious lack of HR power. Bell should be traded to at least give Byron Buxton the flexibility to DH more than he normally will. Byron is a great OF. But we all know he's slowing down. Roden is a good OF. Jenkins has demonstrated he's a good OF. E-Rod as well, if he could ever stay healthy. And I'm encouraged how Keaschall has looked in the OF. The only real question is what to do with Joe Ryan. I'd love to keep him and build a starting staff of him, Lopez, Bradley, Abel and Matthews with competition from Prielipp and other arms acquired in trades. If something decent could be had with Ober I'd strongly consider moving him. Ober is not the future. But I've read several times that Joe Ryan is NOT interested in an extension. He's charismatic, he's darn good, and he's in his prime...an All Star pitcher. But if he's not interested in discussing an extension, the writing is on the wall. Some veteran stars at the All Star break were adamant that there will be no salary cap (or floor for that matter). This is the Mexican Standoff baseball has been heading for since 1981. Owners and players blew up the World Series in 1994 and nothing major was done to re-shape the economics of MLB. I honestly don't know how much baseball gets played in 2027, but the only Silver Lining I can see is that if big changes don't happen, the Pohlad family will finally decide to sell. Jeffers is a nice trade chip. Larnach and Bell could bring back something useful. But Joe Ryan is the biggest decision Tom Pohlad and his FO have to make. He's an excellent pitcher and could lead a pretty good staff in 2027. But again, how much major league baseball will get played in 2027? Joe Ryan could bring back a nice trade package, But will any of those prospects/players ever approach what Joe Ryan is right now? When we traded Nelson Cruz to Tampa Bay and got Ryan in the deal that was an easy trade to make. The Twins were going nowhere and Cruz was still putting up good numbers. This time around, trading Joe Ryan is NOT an easy decision.

Steve Carlton also had a brief cup of coffee with the Twins. Having Schmidt AND Carlton for the Phillies would be great. Tony-O, Kaat and Carew would be outstanding for the Twins.

Culpepper is probably going to end up at 2B or 3B with Marek Houston owning SS in the not too distant future. For that reason alone, I put Lackey ahead of him. For me, it comes down to Lackey vs Jenkins. And I have to put Lackey #1. Jenkins may start out in CF (like KC will at SS) but he most likely will end up in RF sooner or later (probably sooner, but dependent on who actually takes over in CF once Buxton shifts to LF). Lackey is going to stay at Catcher and has Gold Glove potential. Plus, and I write this hoping I'm not JINXING anybody...Lackey starts with a clean slate from an injury standpoint. Jenkins, Culpepper and E-Rod have ALL been slowed by the injury bug. If Lackey plays to his ability, AND STAYS HEALTHY, he should be on a pretty fast track to the big league roster. Once Jeffers is traded, and with Caratini under contract through 2027, the timeline for Lackey and Tait comes into play. They could both be up sometime in 2028. Jenkins and Culpepper will soon be Minnesota Twins. Once that happens, maybe in 3-4 weeks, Vahn Lackey becomes #1.

This is my absolute favorite Twins uniform. It was the uniform of my youth with Oliva, Killebrew, Tovar, Carew and Allison. I wish they would use it more often. I loved that the Mauer, Morneau, Santana and Nathan era used something very similar to this.

It seems like Winokur profiles more as a CF than a SS, but I get moving guys around in the minors to a certain degree. He's such a great athlete at his size that the draft pick was always a reasonable gamble. I would like to see Houston get a promotion sometime around August 1st if he continues to play at this level. He's clobbering AA pitching and the defense is elite. Get him up to St. Paul for August and see how he responds to the challenge. If it goes well, he's set up to begin 2027 in AAA with St. Paul and at least be playing to begin the season with a chance to join the Twins sometime in 2027. If it doesn't go well, he's still set up to play most, if not the entire season at AAA. But with the defense being elite, he could still see a late season 2027 call up. He's never going to be Bobby Witt Jr. at the plate. But how many guys ARE? Walker Jenkins would be a Minnesota Twin by now had he not had such tough injury luck. Marek Houston is earning his chances at promotion. There is no need to rush, but if the play merits a promotion, don't play games, reward the effort and production. It's also probably true that Kaelon Culpepper would be a Twin by now if his injury luck had been better. A future infield of Lee-3B, Houston-SS and Culpepper-2B looks promising. Now that we've hit the All-Star Game and the trade deadline looms on August 1st, we should see a further shuffling of the Major League roster. Hopefully, SOME of the players we acquire are able to join the big league team immediately. It seems like Jenkins and Culpepper will be joining sometime in August as well. Houston, landing in St. Paul would be fine with me. Has anyone heard what level the Twins plan to start Vahn Lackey at?

The recent hot streaks of a couple of teams has probably really shaken up the Trade Horizon. The All-Star break is upon us and how the Twins and a lot of other teams come out of that break is going to determine BUY...SELL... Or...A LITTLE OF BOTH. Some guys are certainly going to be traded, no matter what. Ryan Jeffers for the Twins is a good example. But there are 14 games for most MLB teams coming out of the All Star break. I've got to admit, whether the Twins go 12-2, 7-7 or 2-12, I'm not really sure WHAT they will do. And I kind of feel there are a lot of teams in a very similar situation to the Twins. The entire A.L. East could look the same or a lot different after the next 14 games. The same with the A.L. Central. The A.L. West can safely say the Angels are out of it. The Athletics sorely need Nick Kurtz to get healthy, but he won't be off the I.L. until at least July 20th. In the N.L. the Mets and Reds are out of it and with the exception of the D-Backs I think the Dodgers have sunk the rest of the division. It will be interesting as the trade deadline nears, if there are more teams or fewer who sink into the 100% SELL category. I see the Twins possibly threading the needle and doing a little of both.

Interesting draft. We got Lackey. I consider that a big win with the impending trade of Ryan Jeffers and the emergence of Marek Houston as a legit Major League SS candidate (as well as having Culpepper). I won't criticize the 2nd pick of another Catcher. In today's power hitting game it could work out. With catching being at such a premium, a team can always leverage a fine catching prospect for future assets. And then we reel off pitching candidates for 8 or 9 straight picks before selecting an OF, SS & 2B. I cannot argue with this. The team needs to replenish arms throughout their minor league system. They selected 2 high profile offensive pieces #1 & #2 and then have strenuously endeavored to stockpile ARMS. They all seem to be fairly BIG, rawboned guys with velocity and secondary pitches. Every single arm they selected will have to sharpen his command. They are all being drafted as imperfect, unfinished products, but with potential. It will be up to the Twins minor league coaches to improve this crop of arms at every level. Of all the major sports and their drafts, Baseball is the biggest crapshoot. And Pitching remains the biggest crap shoot. Good Luck to the Twins 2026 Draft Class.

I'd hate to see Joe Ryan get traded. Some pitchers are just more fun to watch than others and Joe Ryan is one of those guys. But there are certain realities we have to acknowledge as fans. 1. The Twins are "competitive" this season only because they play in the worst division of any pro league, and the American League is a shambles. I can't remember the last time it was this moribund. Probably 1968 minus the Tigers. 2. We are not serious contenders for anything. I can't imagine there isn't a FO in baseball who IS NOT calculating how the Lockout/Strike could effect their team and payroll for 2027. 3. The Twins 2 biggest trade assets: Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers do not want to be Minnesota Twins anymore. Neither has shown any interest in signing an extension (I have to believe the Twins have at least ASKED them about it, and probably have been rebuffed). 4. With 1991 waaaay back in the rearview mirror, is there anyone on TD who loves or even LIKES the Pohlad Family as owners? ANYBODY? The same goes for the FO people they have employed. ANYBODY? If the feeling is we shouldn't make trades because we're just not that good at it (in general, the Nelson Cruz and Joe Ryan trades were great) then we not only need a new ownership group but a complete revamp of our FO. 5. We have the chance to add a possible game changing player in the MLB draft today and a prevailing opinion is that we hope the FO doesn't get cute, or outthink themselves and screw it up. With that kind of reality, we need a new FO. 6. The fan base is not happy with ownership or FO leadership/decision making. Trading Joe Ryan or Ryan Jeffers can't damage this any more than it already is. Only NEW ownership and leadership will wipe the slate clean and at least lead to fans willing to give the franchise a "2nd Chance." Labor strife is just around the corner. It's a perfect storm. 7. Today, we should at least hold our collective breath until the first 2 picks of the draft are made and then take a deep breath before this FO makes our selection. Then, if indeed they don't get too cute or over think the obvious, breathe a sigh of relief and enjoy the future star we end up with. 8. The trade deadline can wait until after this weekend.