h2oface

Hey Everyone,
 
I've seen a plethora of hate on Addison Reed mostly due to his salary hit in 2019 so, I'm going to take a crack at changing a couple people's minds as I don't think he's getting a fair shake of things and doesn't warrant this much disinterest from his own team's fan-base.
 
Okay before I get into things let's look at his 2019 contract details (according to spotrac.com)
2019 Salary: $8,500,000
2019 Bonuses: None
2019 Market Value: 4 yrs/$8,936,937
 
2018 was filled with discouragement for Reed and his fans. He posted a 4.50 ERA (highest since 2012, his 23 yr old season), 5.11 FIP (Career High), and a 1.429 WHIP (Career High). On top of that he was pestered by a triceps injury all year. Which is a reason to worry. Or is it?...
 
Hear me out, in the 3 years before this most recent season Reed went off for an average of a 2.73 ERA, 2.89 FIP, and 1.12 WHIP. The guy knows how to pitch and how to pitch well so I think we can all agree to take a step back and see that no one should be doubting Reed and his abilities on the mound. We're not talking about a 24 yr old former top prospect who had one good year (or part of one) and one or two bad years (wink wink). And no we're not talking about a 35 yr old former all star who's age has caught up with his arm (wink wink again). We're talking about a 29 yr old pitcher with a track record of success who had a down year. It really burns the fans that this down year was with the Twins and I understand that. This article isn't meant to defend Reed's 2018 performance. It's meant to turn everyone's pessimism into shades of optimism.
 
So what caused these bad performances and why should it give us hope for Addison Reed?
 
Through May of last year Reed had a 2.83 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP. The WHIP wasn't great it was around average but the ERA was spectacular and I clearly remember people feeling safe when the bullpen doors opened and #43 could be seen jogging out. Then what happened? He got hurt. We learned after a few forgettable appearances in June that Reed's tricep was acting up and he had been pitching through it. What did manager Paul Molitor do about it? He continued to pitch Reed in the 8th inning in front of the Fernando Rodney experience. Now, am I blaming Molitor for Reed's performance? Not in any way. It was Reed's responsibility to shut himself down which he eventually did and landed himself on the 10 day DL for a good stretch of the mid-summer. The reason I brought it up is Reed and the team knew something was off in his arm and they continued to use it. I'm no doctor but that's not a good plan for stabilizing arm strength and velocity and it's definitely not a good time to judge a pitchers value. We all know the rest. Reed made appearances here and there throughout the rest of the season with similar results to his June stat line....until September rolled around.
 
Optimism for #43
 
I feel like Twins fans don't realize that Reed had a relatively good September in his 6 appearances. He had been damned by the fan base already. In a small showing of 6 games Reed posted a 1.69 ERA along with a 1.13 WHIP. I feel like this was the sign of hope we need to and can count on. A guy with structural damage along the lines of Glen Perkins labrum tear would not have put up those kinds of numbers in 6 straight games. The velocity on Reed's fastball was down a notch in these outings which can concern some but after an arm endures games, rehab, more games, more rehab, and then even more games, it tends to wear down. My diagnosis is, what Reed needed the most was rest but is a naturally competitive guy and came in the clubhouse everyday telling Molitor and Garvin Alston that he was available knowing the end of the season was so near at the time. So they let him test his arm 6 times and he took those chances and ran with them in stride. Now, he's going to have almost 5 months to get that tricep the rest it needs and is going to be 100% when pitchers and catchers report. So someone please tell me why the Addison Reed of 2015,2016,2017, and 1/4 of 2018 does not have a high possibility of taking it's rightful place in the bullpen again? Arms flare up it's a fact of pitching in the MLB but we've seen with the advancement of modern training and rehabilitation that more often than not pitchers are able to find their old selves again. I think it's time we start rooting for Addison Reed and looking at great possibilities for 2019 instead of the anomaly of 2018.
 
Extra: Contract Status
 
Addison Reed is making $8,500,000 this year which is about 95% of his market value. It would be nice if he was making $4 mil but it would be nice if Joe Mauer had made $10 mil in his last 4 years as well. Point being, potential and the past pays. On the open market (which is where Reed was acquired from), pitchers also make a considerable amount more than position players as well. So before we deem it a "bad contract" let's decide if we're giving him an unfair advantage because (at the time of this post) he is the highest paid player on the payroll and the first reaction is to go "ugh! isn't that the guy who blew a few games in 2018?"
 
All in all, 2018 was a forgettable year for a team still filled with potential and it should be viewed that way for Reed as well.
 
 
Feel free to leave a comment below with your thoughts I would love to start a conversation with anyone.

I know that RP refers to relief pitching – for me it amounts to Really Poor baseball. KC won a series and did damage to the rest of baseball just like the jerk with the bomb that makes me take off my shoes at the airport. We have always had some relief pitchers, but now we have a stat head jamboree of pitchers. No longer is half the team pitchers and half batters, now we have 2 -3 on the bench and a bullpen that has to add folding chairs. Does this help the game? No.
 
Do any of you enjoy the visits to the mound, the time it takes to run in, the 8 pitches from an already warmed up pitcher who might throw one pitch to one batter and then we repeat this exciting or should I say dramatic spectacle again.
 
We are now in an era when wins do not count any more, starting pitchers are actually one inning relievers – how exciting is that. The starting pitcher is saved from facing the strongest part of the lineup! Why is he starting? Openers are used for beer and other necessary boredom relieving beverages.
 
Pitchers per game is now 4.24 per team, in our World Series Years of 1991 (3.13), 1987 (2.89) and 1965 (2.69). Wins counted then because pitchers were in the game long enough to actually dominate the game – I love the Marichal and Spahn complete game 16 inning affair won by the giants (even though Spahn was my pitching hero and the Braves (Milwaukee – not Atlanta) were my favorite team). By the way Spahn started 665 games and completed 382.
 
How about Robin Roberts throwing 28 straight complete games for the Phillies? Or Nolan Ryan throws 235 pitches, strikes out 19, during an 13 inning effort. Right now Berrios is tied for the lead in complete games with 2. Going back to our Series years – McDowell (WS) – 15 in 1991, Roger Clemens (Bos) 18 in 1987, and Sandy Koufax (Dodgers) 27 in 1965.
 
It should be noted that neither Spahn nor Ryan had their arms fall off after those feats.
 
A Koufax/Marichal game was must see. Great pitchers were the draw. Who goes to the park to watch the pitching match up now? Oh boy I wonder who the Opener is today? Yuck, I had to pause to let my stomach settle and to take another shot of whiskey. Oh wait I might miss Astudillo throwing melons to the plate.
 
I do not even know these players – Boxberger from AZ is in 85% of fantasy leagues – who is he? Who is Matthew Strahm? Do I care? Fantasy Pros lists 301 relief pitchers. Who will pay to see them pitch? Yawn. I leave after 7 – I don’t care anymore – Jim Kaat was right, but the thing is I am moving that to 6 innings and if there is an Opener I come in the second inning.
 
Give me back baseball. In fact give me starters who throw complete games, batters that bunt when the shift is on, players who steal bases and do hit and run. Limit the team to three pitchers per game. And please some team challenge this nonsense and open up the game with action, not just strikeouts and home runs.

Logan Morrison Hip Impingement Q&A
Heezy1323
 
Twins DH/1B Logan Morrison was recently shut down for the remainder of the season and, by reports, is expected to undergo surgery for a hip condition that has been bothering him for much of the year. The problem is being reported as ‘hip impingement’, which is a fairly common diagnosis. Some may recall that the NBA’s Isaiah Thomas dealt with this problem over the past couple seasons and underwent surgery more recently.
So what is ‘hip impingement’? And when does it need surgery? And what happens during surgery? Let’s dive in and see what we can find out:
 
 


 
Question 1: What is hip impingement?
Hip impingement is another term for what orthopedists call ‘femoroacetabular impingement’ or FAI. This term basically means pinching of the hip labrum tissue between the bone of the ball and the bone of the socket of the hip.
 
The hip is a ball and socket joint. Around the rim of the socket is a tissue called ‘labrum’ which acts as a cushion, and also seals the ball into the socket. In an ideal world, the ball is perfectly round and the socket is perfectly hemispherical. In this case, when people move the hip around, there is no pinching. However, in some people, rather than being round the ball is more shaped like a grape or an egg. In these cases the extra bone can cause a pinching of the labrum when the hip is flexed (for example, when seated). Over time, this repetitive minor injury can cause damage to the labrum. There can also be extra bone on the socket side, which can have a similar effect. These two situations are called CAM impingement (extra bone on the ball) and PINCER impingement (extra bone on the socket). In many cases, both CAM and PINCER impingement coexist.
 


 
 
Question 2: I don’t remember LoMo getting hurt. When did the labrum get torn?
 
Typically, this is not an injury that results from a single incident (though it can happen that way). It is much more common for this to be the result of an accumulation of ‘microtraumas’ over a long period of time.
In addition, the CAM and PINCER deformities are quite common in people who don’t have any pain in their hips. In some studies, >50% of asymptomatic patients have some signs of CAM or PINCER deformity on hip xrays. Simply having the ‘extra bone’ doesn’t automatically mean it is going to be a problem. Our understanding of why people develop these deformities is improving, but we don’t know the cause at this time. It appears to be more common in people participating in athletics (particularly hockey), so we think it has something to do with low-level trauma to the area during growth years.
 
 
Question 3: Does a labrum tear always need surgery?
 


 
No. A labrum tear is also a very common finding in patients with no hip pain. In one study of patients between 18-40 years old who had no hip pain, MRI’s of the hip showed a labrum tear about 40% of the time. So clearly not every labrum tear causes pain or requires surgery. There are also a number of conditions that can cause similar pain to hip impingement (ranging from hernias to pinched nerves in the spine to ‘sports hernias’ and many others). Therefore, time is often spent trying to decipher what the actual cause of the pain is in these patients, as it isn’t always as straightforward as we would like it to be.
 
 
Question 4: How do we tell which labrum tears need surgery and which do not?
 
This can be difficult, but typically rest, anti inflammatory medication, physical therapy and/or injections of cortisone are tried prior to surgery. Many patients can find success with these treatments. However, some do not, and surgery may be warranted.
 
Question 5: What is done during surgery?
 


 
There has been a significant evolution of techniques in hip surgery over the past decade as surgery for this condition has become more common. It can be done either open (through an incision) or arthroscopically (through the scope). Arthroscopic treatment is much more common, particularly in the United States.
The hip is stretched apart by use of a special table that pulls the joint open about 1cm. The scope is put in to the joint and tools are used to examine the joint space. We look at the surface cartilage, labrum and other structures in and around the hip. Once we have looked at everything, any ‘extra’ bone on the socket side is carefully removed with a tool called a burr. The labrum tear is often repaired with small anchors back to the rim of the socket (from where it tore away). The ball is then released back into the socket and we use the burr to reshape the ball, removing extra bone in that area as well.
Surgery often takes 2-4 hours depending on the extent of injury.
 
Question 6: How long is the recovery?
 
As with any surgery, the recovery is variable, but most high-level athletes are back to full sports around 6-8 months after the operation. There have been several studies examining the performance of professional athletes in different sports after return from this hip surgery. Most have shown little or no diminished performance after recovery.
 
 
 
I’m certain even Morrison would say he didn’t have the season he was hoping to have for the Twins, and this hip issue certainly could’ve been part of the reason. Hopefully he can improve after surgery and get back to his 2017 form, whether for the Twins or elsewhere.

During the final game of the last homestand against the Rangers, after the Twins dropped the first three games of the series to the Rangers, many fans noticed a change to the familiar Minnie and Paul celebration sign in center field.
 
As an apparent gesture of the Twins performance this year, likely in particular that of the offense lately, Minnie and Paul had paper bags placed over their heads. Minnie and Paul are well-known for their friendly handshake over the Mississippi River.
 
Minnesota Twins Senior Director of Ballpark Development and Planning Dan Starkey said, “We felt this was the correct gesture to ensure that Twins fans have the right mentality when coming to Target Field to cheer on the Twins this year.” He added, “We are considering making additional changes to the famous Minnie and Paul sign. For example, after Joe Mauer leaves the Twins or retires, we’re considering changing the handshake to some kind of fist bump to appeal to current players and millennial fans.”
 
We asked Starkey if they had any additional plans around Target Field, other than with Minnie and Paul, to commemorate the failing Twins season. “Well if the Twins are truly going to continue being a bad team this year, why not embrace that and find ways to enjoy it? When the Twins are officially eliminated from playoff contention, we are planning on hosting a paper bag giveaway sponsored by Cub Foods so every fan can watch the game from the comfort and security of a paper bag over their head with some eye holes poked into it. We’ll even have mini paper bags for the kids,” Starkey said.

Royce Lewis: Patellar Tendinopathy
Heezy1323
 
The Twins community recently received some concerning news about highly-regarded prospect Royce Lewis. Lewis left the Cedar Rapids Kernels Saturday game with what is being reported as ‘patellar tendinitis’, which has been causing him trouble off-and-on for about a month. But what is ‘patellar tendinitis’ exactly? And what might it mean for Royce going forward? Let’s discuss:
 
Question 1: Where is the ‘patella tendon’?
The patella tendon is the tendon that goes from your kneecap (also called the patella) down to the upper part of your shin bone (tibia). It is the attachment of your quadriceps muscle group to your lower leg, and it is what allows people to extend the knee.
 


 
Question 2: What is ‘patellar tendinitis’?
Patella tendinitis is a term commonly used to refer to activity-related pain that occurs near the attachment of the patella tendon to the patella. The suffix ‘-itis’ is used to indicate inflammation. While the term is commonly used, in actuality a more appropriate term is ‘patella tendinopathy’, which refers to degenerative changes within the tendon in the absence of inflammation (which is more accurately the case in this diagnosis). This difference is important when considering treatment options.
 


Question 3: Royce is clearly a high-level athlete. Why did he get this problem?
Patellar tendinopathy is also commonly called ‘jumper’s knee’ since it occurs most frequently in athletes that do a lot of jumping. In some studies of professional volleyball and basketball players, the incidence of jumper’s knee has been shown to be more than 30%. It is much less common in non-jumping athletes, but still occurs in around 2-3% of soccer players. I was not able to find any information specifically discussing the incidence in baseball players.
It is unclear exactly why this problem occurs. It is most likely a combination of factors including BMI, flat feet, muscle imbalance in the quad/hamstrings, low flexibility, and intrinsic properties of the patellar tendon. There are likely other factors as well, including overuse.
The area involved is usually located directly at the bottom end of the patella/top part of the tendon. Symptoms usually come on gradually over time. Initially, the knee typically hurts only with activity. Over time, if the condition worsens, pain may begin to be present even at rest.
 
Question 4: How is patella tendinopathy diagnosed?
The diagnosis is usually fairly clear from the history and physical exam of the athlete. Xrays are usually normal, though in some cases calcifications of the tendon may be visible. An MRI is the standard test to identify the extent of the problem and also to rule out other problems inside the knee. The area of the tendon involved in the problem is typically fairly small- around the size of a couple tic-tacs.
 


Question 5: How is patella tendinopathy treated?
The most commonly prescribed treatment for patellar tendinopathy is rest from vigorous activity and specific physical therapy exercises (called eccentric exercises). These exercises are designed to strengthen the quad muscles, stretch the hamstrings and ultimately cause favorable adaptation of the knee. The time needed for symptoms to resolve can be highly variable, but often takes at least a few weeks.
When therapy isn’t effective, other treatments can be tried including various injections and ultrasound. At this time, there is no significant evidence that PRP (platelet rich plasma) injections are helpful for this condition, though I suspect it is being considered. There is, to my knowledge, no significant data on stem cell injections for this problem.
 
Question 6: Is surgery ever needed for patellar tendinopathy?
Rarely, yes. In most studies, around 10% of patients will fail to respond to appropriate conservative treatment. In these cases, surgery may be needed. There are two main options: open surgery and arthroscopic surgery. In either case, the procedure is similar- the area of affected tendon is excised and a small (a few millimeters) part of the patella bone is removed to stimulate healing. Therapy is begun soon after surgery. The success rate for return to sports is around 80% for both surgeries, with return after the arthroscopic version being quicker on average. Usually, 4-6 months is needed for full return to sports after surgery.
 
Question 7: Is Royce at increased risk of rupturing the patella tendon because of this problem?
No. Having patella tendinopathy does not appear to place anyone at increased risk of having a patella tendon rupture when compared to those without the problem.
 
Overall, I believe the most likely scenario to be that Lewis’ body is adjusting to playing professional baseball every day and he is having some minor issues as a result. I don’t expect this to be a substantial problem going forward, though the possibility that this requires surgery in the future does exist. Hopefully he will get through rehab quickly and be back on the field soon.

I am flabbergasted. I wants something to happen. I wanted a change, but Matt Belisle? For gods sake Cleveland sent him to the minors and the AAA team released him. This is our big move? This is how we fix the BP? Look at this quote from Twinkie Town - "Certainly the presence of Belisle is to lessen the workloads on fellow righthanders Addison Reed, Trevor Hildenberger, and Ryan Pressley. However, it’s a little quizzical that the front office was so quick to bring him in when Alan Busenitz (31% strikeout rate, 0.38 ERA, 1.76 FIP) and John Curtiss (33.7% strikeout rate, 1.61 ERA, 2.63 FIP) are dominating Triple-A. This is likely a case of Falvey/Levine wanting Belisle’s veteran presence (veteran presents?) while Busenitz and Curtiss are still rather green."
 
Is this Ground Hog Day? Is this what all those great stats whizzes came up with? Once upon a time we had a Twins FO that brought back anyone who wore a Twins Uniform, even if it was a costume part. I thought those days were over.
 
I think the answer to our current bullpen questions was in the minors, but of course the FO did not sign them, like they did not sign Wade and they have already proved that they want their fingerprints on every move.
 
Falvey if you want to bring a new culture to the Twins this is not the way to do it. https://www.twinkietown.com/2018/6/12/17453818/minnesota-twins-sign-matt-belisle-dfa-gregorio-petit-cleveland-indians-bullpen-relief-alan-busenitz
 
Would I rather have Petit - yes. Belisle's 5.06 ERA in 8 games is not a stat I take pleasure in. I gave our FO a C- in an early posting. Today I make that a D.

Byron Buxton practicing his catching in front of a US border wall prototype in June, 2018
 
SAN DIEGO – After suffering for months with severe migraines and with a history of concussions, Byron Buxton announced on Twitter (@OfficialBuck103) yesterday that he’s officially stepping away from Major League Baseball.
 
“We’ll miss his presence on the field and in the clubhouse. He’s definitely one of the best center fielders of all time. We wish him the best in his future endeavors,” said Derek Falvey, Minnesota Twins Executive Vice President and Chief Baseball Officer.
 
Buxton later announced that he’s been working out at a U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) facility in San Diego, California where he’s training to catch bags of drugs, typically heroin, being thrown over the border walls from Mexico to the United States.
 
When asked about the new work he’s preparing for, Buxton said “At least I don’t need to hit anymore.” He added, “I was born to climb walls and catch. And this way, I can also do it while proudly serving my country.”
 
But, is catching baggies of drugs going to be as easy as catching baseballs? Buxton stated, “The tricky part is that all of the bags can come in different sizes and weights. But if it fits in my glove, I’m going to catch it. Just as long as the border wall is not 55 or 60 feet tall like I’ve heard some people are proposing.”
 
Carla Provost, Acting Chief for the U.S. Border Patrol division of the DHS, said that they have had their eye on Buxton for a while, and contacted him when he went on the disabled list in April for migraines. “Last year we really dove into the analytics of border security. We have this new metric, abbreviated DRS, which stands for Drug Rings Squandered. We expect that Byron will step right in and lead the division in DRS.”
 
We caught up with Border Patrol Assistant Chief, Percy Woolbright, to ask about Buxton. “He’ll be a natural at this. He’s really talented. He can cover a lot of wall, too, because I saw his sprint speed has been measured at over 30 feet per second. Also, Byron can come to work every day knowing that the weather along the US-Mexico border is much more predictable than in Minnesota. And if Florida ever decides to secede from the Union like it did in 1861, we’ll set up a new border wall along the US and Florida, and Byron can work close to his family in Georgia.”
 
One might assume that because of the orientation of catching fly balls against the fence in baseball, he should technically be positioned on the south (foreign) side of the wall to catch drugs being catapulted from Mexico. Commenting on this, Woolbright said, “Umm…Oops.”

When this season was in its infancy, I had a lot of high expectations for the 2018 Cedar Rapids Kernels. I was not alone, of course, since the Kernels’ opening day roster was filled with big-bonus position players, highlighted by 2017’s first-overall draft pick, Royce Lewis, and the Twins’ 2016 first round pick, Alex Kirilloff.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Lewis05182018-2-600x400.jpg
Royce Lewis (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
Unlike some, though, I was freely effusive with my high expectations. I told more than one person that I felt the 2018 roster had the potential to be every bit as good as, if not better than, the Kernels’ class of 2013 that included Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler and a number of other very talented position players.
 
With Cedar Rapids sitting in fiftth place in the Midwest League’s Western Division last week, one of the people who had heard me express my early season optimism approached me during what was turning out to be a lopsided loss to Quad Cities and, in so many words, asked me, “what happened?”
 
It’s a fair question and I think I may have even surprised myself with my answer. I said I still believe what I said at the outset about this roster is true. There’s a lot of talent on the Cedar Rapids roster.
 
Like their big-league parent club, the Kernels have been treading water at or near the .500 mark. On the surface, that would seem inconsistent with having something I would have referred to (and did refer to) as a “loaded roster” to start the season.
 
Having two first round picks should be enough to keep just about any Class A roster at or above the .500 mark and that’s pretty much what Lewis and Kirilloff have done. After Wednesday’s win over Kane County, the Kernels’ record stands at 21 wins and 20 losses, good enough for fourth place in their Division, a game and a half behind Clinton, Peoria and Quad Cities, who are in a virtual three-way tie for the Division lead with about a month left in the season’s first half.
 
Under MWL rules, the top two teams in each division at the end of the first half of the season automatically qualify for the postseason, so the Kernels have just over four w
eeks to pass at least two of the teams ahead of them in the standings to clinch one of those automatic playoff spots.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Kirilloff0506d-400x600.jpg
Alex Kirilloff (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
With Kirilloff and Lewis both hitting above .300, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to hear that one or both is being promoted to the Ft. Myers Miracle at any time. If and when those promotions occur, the Kernels’ chances of qualifying for the postseason would obviously take a serious hit.
 
The two first-rounders have accounted for a disproportionate amount of Cedar Rapids’ offense. If you remove their hits and at-bats from the club’s totals, the Kernels would have a .231 team batting average, which would be just two points above the Great Lakes Loons, who currently rank 16th among the 16 MWL members in team batting average.
 
Seven of the 12 current position players on the roster have batting averages below .234 and seven have an OPS below .700. Two players are hitting below .200 and have an OPS below .500.
 
So why would I remain bullish about the 2018 Kernels?
 
One of the by-products of having a roster of position players that have gotten off to a slow start is that not too many of them are going to be promoted to the next level any time soon. Outside of Kirilloff and Lewis, it’s hard to identify anyone among the current position players that one could honestly say has earned himself a shot at the next level.
 
And most of these guys are still very young.
 
Lewis is still 18 for a couple more weeks and Kirilloff is just 20, but they aren’t the only hitters still unable to legally buy a beer around here.
 
Catcher Ben Rortvedt and outfielder Jean Carlos Arias are each just 20 years old while infielder Jose Miranda and outfielder Akil Baddoo (recently placed on the Disabled List) are just 19. Newly arrived outfielder Jacob Pearson is also still 19, though just until his June 1 birthday.
 
Trey Cabbage, David Banuelos and Shane Carrier come in right at 21 years old.
 
Among the club’s position players, only Andrew Bechtold (22), Ben Rodriguez (23) and Jordan Gore (23) would likely be considered above the average age for this league.
 
And here’s the thing about MiLB leagues that split their seasons into two halves – often the teams that finish the season the strongest are those that have young talent that start slow enough that they don’t get promoted, leading to less than average turnover in their ranks. Those players often develop into a competitive unit by the end of the summer.
 
The Twins have a lot of bonus money tied up in this unit of position players and it would seem unlikely that they would release or demote a 19 or 20 year old ballplayer that they’ve invested heavily in just because he’s gotten off to a slow start in Cedar Rapids.
 
A year ago, the Twins sent 23 different position players to Cedar Rapids during the course of the season. Thus far, among the team's hitters, only the 12 current position players plus Akil Baddoo (now on the Disabled List) and previously promoted outfielder Mark Contreras have suited up for Cedar Rapids.
 
It’s not difficult for me to envision a scenario where, even should Lewis and Kirilloff get their promotions, the rest of the current group of position players is largely left intact to develop together through most of the rest of the season.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Gore0521b-600x400.jpg
Jordan Gore (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
Yes, it would have been a bonus to have Wander Javier in line to replace a promoted Lewis, but his season-ending labrum surgery means that won’t be happening. (Javier will still just be 20 years old when he likely makes his Kernels debut in 2019.)
 
Players that demonstrate they’re ready for new challenges get promoted. That’s what minor league ball is all about. Fans in Cedar Rapids have had a rare opportunity to watch two of the most promising young prospects in the Twins’ system play for the Kernels this spring and those players have certainly not disappointed. The result is that one or both could be promoted to the next level at any time.
 
While the rest of the everyday lineup have not been as productive with the bat as Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff so far, several of them have been picking up the offensive pace.
 
Jordan Gore has hit .371 in his last 10 games, Jean Carlos Arias his hit .324 over his most recent 10, Jose Miranda has hit .294 over the same stretch, while Akil Baddoo, Ben Rortvedt and Trey Cabbage have each hit .250 or better in their last 10 games for Cedar Rapids.
 
The “new guy,” Jacob Pearson, even had a pair of hits in his first game as a Kernel on Wednesday.
 
Minor league baseball is what it is, and that means players will come and go. But this group of Kernels hitters is not just a two-man unit. The lineup has offensive talent up and down the batting order and I think we’ll continue to see plenty of runs scored by the home team at Veterans Memorial Stadium this summer.
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)

Seven starts into his 2018 season with the Minnesota Twins, Lance Lynn has been nothing short of an abomination. He owns a 7.34 ERA, 1.981 WHIP, and is surrendering 6.6 free passes per nine innings. All of those numbers are ugly, but what's most interesting, is that Lynn's secondary numbers suggest he could be very good if he stops doubting himself.
 
Now to be sure, doubt may not be the most appropriate word to describe what is going on with Lynn. At the core of his issues is simply the fact that he has decided not to throw strikes. Over the course of his career, Lynn has been in the zone 41.6% of the time. In his early years with the Cardinals, he attacked the zone at an even higher percentage. While not the same measurement, in 2018 for the Twins, Lynn has thrown strikes on just 58.5% of his offerings. In his first season back from Tommy John surgery last year, that number was 59%. In 2015 it was 61.5%, and in 2014 it was 62.6%.
 
Across the board, the most glaring issue for the Twins free agent acquisition is his inability to work in or near the zone enough to entire hitters.
 
In fact, if we look at some of Lynn's secondary numbers, his stuff is actually playing a bit better than career norms. His 2,300+ spin rate on average for pitches thrown this season is up from last year, and his velocity has seen about a one mile per hour spike as well. He's generating swinging strikes 10.8% of the time, which is a career best. His 30.4% chase rate is the 2nd best mark of his career, and he's allowing contact at a career low 75.9% mark.
Doing so many other things rate, it's fair to question where that leaves him.
 
There's a couple of things at play for the big righty. His repertoire seems to have shifted some this season. The four seam fastball usage is up nearly 8% over last year, and the sinker has dipped 10% to make up for it. In looking at the density of his pitches in the zone, we can see he's attacked completely opposite sides as well. Instead of working the left side and inner part of the zone against righties as he did so often in 2017, his 2018 balls have traveled to the right side of the zone with many of them floating over the heart of the plate.
By taking a look at how he's attacking batters, or in this instance isn't, we can gather a good idea of what his batted ball numbers should look like. Issuing 6.6 walks per nine and over 11 hits in that same span, opposing batters are invited to be patient. As such, Lynn is issuing a career worst 40.8% hard hit rate as well as a 21.4% HR/FB ratio. Despite generating ground balls at a 48.5% mark, which is a strong total, he's allowing opposing hitters to sit back, swing hard, and deposit baseballs into the seats.
 
Of the 164 plate appearances Lynn has been on the bump for this season, 108 of them have presented scenarios in which either the batter or pitcher is ahead in the count. Across those scenarios, Lynn has been behind an astounding 65% (70/108) of the time. In the 70 plate appearances where Lynn has been pitching from behind, he's ceded 25 walks and allowed opposing hitters to compile a 1.251 OPS off of him. Conversely, when working ahead in the count, Lynn has given up zero walks while striking out 16 despite still allowing a .947 OPS.
 
Over the course of his seven year big league career, no one would suggest that Lynn is a command artist. A career 3.5 BB/9 for a starter is a bit above what you'd like to see. However, he's routinely made the process work because he's been able to throw plenty of strikes, get ahead of hitters, and put them away. Right now, Lynn has decided to nibble around the zone, strike out batters in part due to confusion, and be burned by his own inefficiency.
 
The good news is that Lynn had next to no spring training and has plenty of time to turn things around for the Twins. The bad news is that his room for error is becoming incredibly small, and we've reached the point in which he either needs to throw the ball over the plate or changes need to be made. The stuff is there for a very good pitcher to emerge. Lynn's overall ability, repertoire, and stuff is in a better place than it was a year ago. If he isn't in a place where he believes that it plays within the parameters of the strike zone however, it doesn't much matter.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
----
In a cold May evening about 5 years go, give or take a week, I witnessed one of the most dominating pitching performances I have seen in person: Twins' first round draft pick in 2009, righty Kyle Gibson, about a year removed from his return from Tommy John surgery, shut down the Lehigh Valley IronPigs with a three-hitter, carrying a no-hitter into the eighth inning. This was when the Twins were on their way to another season flirting with 100 losses and were conflicting reports regarding Gibson's pitching, so I really wanted to see what Gibson could do. In person. Here is how I described his performance 5 years ago:
 
I was very lucky to be there because this was a magnificent pitching performance by Gibson. I came in with an open mind and nothing to expect and I left a strong believer in that Gibson is the best starting pitcher the Twins have today. A bit about his performance, and I am not going to get into things like numbers, which you can read elsewhere: He had four pitches that he threw when he wanted with a great command. His fastball was his primary pitch and was sitting from 92-94 all night long. It spiked to 95 a few times and went to 91 a couple. It was at 94 in the 9th inning as well. in the first 5 innings he mostly threw his fastball and his slider, which ran from 84 to 86 and really kept the IronPigs' hitters off balance, causing a lot of swings and misses. Have to mention that Gibson had impeccable command of the fastball: he would locate it up and down and inside and out. And throw it at the dirt when he wanted to. In the latest innings he started throwing more his change up that was running from 81-83 mph with a good late motion; also he featured a tight slow curve (78-80 mph) that I did not realize he had. He threw that pitch a few times late in the game. He was totally on top of his game today. In addition to what he did on the field, a thing that really impressed me was his composure in the dugout, knowing that he was having a no-hitter: he was sitting there cheering his teammates and clapping when they were batting, instead of being "in his own world" and apathetic about the game. This was a dominating performance that, I think that won him his first trip to the majors. Frankly, I thought that I will witness history and it was that close...
 
After the game ended, Gibson was interviewed in the dugout after the game, and when that was done, I yelled something like "Great game! See you in Minnesota soon, Kyle!" towards him, and he smiled and dismissed the Minnesota part with a hand gesture. My answer was a "We'll see!".
 
LENIII penned this about that game the next day:
 
Class AAA Rochester righthander Kyle Gibson had his best outing of the year on Sunday, taking a no hitter into the eighth inning before finishing with a three-hit complete game shutout as the Red Wings beat Lehigh Valley 11-0. Gibson needed just 93 pitches for his gem – 58 were strikes, 35 were balls. He walked two and struck out eight as his record Improved to 3-5 with a 3.25 ERA
 
In retrospect nobody noticed the fact that Gibby threw only 62% of his pitches for strikes or noted that it might have been something undesirable, because you cannot argue with the results.
 
Fast forward a bit over a month. June 29th. I was happened to be in the East suburbs of St. Paul that week for work. A friend of mine who is a season ticket holder treated me to one of his tickets at the Delta sky360 club, so I got to witness, Gibson's first major league start. In that game, he beat the Royals (who were actually starting Wade Davis) in a six inning, 8 hit, 5 strikeout, 2 run performance. He threw 91 pitches and 64 for strikes (70%).
 
The next several years have been up and down for Gibson, until his 3 game demotion to Rochester last season. He came back and pitched 11 games, of which the Twins won 9, striking out 8.4 per 9 innings, and walking about 2.1 per nine, while throwing only 63% of his pitches for strikes. And nobody thought that this was a bad thing. In 8 games that season, of which the Twins have won 5, he has been striking out 10.1 per nine, walking 4.4 per nine, and throwing 59% of his pitches for strikes (which only some Twins' TV broadcasters think its a bad thing, based on the comments in his Angel's start.)
 
What happened to that Kyle Gibson of five years ago in my back yard, and what happened for him to slowly appear to be back?
 
My hypothesis is that Kyle Gibson got Ricked and Neiled out of shape, being forced to be a pitcher he is not. Both Rick Anderson and Neil Allen, his previous pitching coaches have been stressing "pounding the strike zone" and inducing soft contact either with the sinker or the changeup. And this approach had been a top to bottom approach in the organization, in the previous Twins' front office. Change happened and it is a good thing. The new pitching approach throughout the organization is try to get ahead of the count and then let them chance, either outside, or inside or high.
 
And this has been working for Kyle Gibson who went back to his roots. In Saturday's game against the Angels, he even brought back his rarely thrown and ever rarer for strikes curveball when he faces certain batters the second time. That description up there of his performance with Rochester, against Lehigh Valley five years ago, would be pretty close to what he did against the Angels, save a hit or few... Gibson has been pitching to his strengths and it took an organizational overhaul to allow him (and the rest of the Twins' pitchers) to do that. Other than Fernando Romero who pitched only two games and will be the Twins' future ace, Gibson leads the Twins' starters in ERA, FIP, K% and K/9, fWAR, and is second only to Berrios in innings pitched per start.
 
It seems that Gibson is finally the pitcher we all thought that he will be five years ago. Better late than never, and I hope that it is here to stay.
 
And a parting food for thought about those who might be bothered by the strike percentage and Gibson's walks: This season Gibson's K/9 and BB/9 numbers are up there. The pitcher who struck out the most batters in baseball, has a career 9.5 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9, both worse than Gibson's numbers this season. Not that Gibson is close to Nolan Ryan; however strikeout pitchers walk hitters as well, and hitters strike out often on balls and hit strikes. It is ok. Results are what matters.

I posted the following comment in the discussion of Lynn’s White Sox game:
When I look at the lineup I see such a gap at 4.The guys filling in the 3 - 4 - 5 spots are doing great, but with Morrison still trying to find the Mendoza line we really need Sano to give us a big bat.Of course we need a Sano who learns to strikeout a lot less.When I look at the Yankees big boppers you can see how it really changes the game, but they also have a better approach.
 
Sano with 506 Ks in 1220 ABs wastes so many opportunities. Judge has 294 ks in 748 ABs. If Ks were hits Sano would have a 414 average and Judge 393. But Judge has an OPS of 989 career and Sano 837.Miquel has the potential, but so far he is most effective at getting on the DL rather than the bases.
 
This seems to be the new baseball – at least for now – Relief pitchers, Ks, and HRs. It is not the baseball I enjoy.
Then I went to ESPN and found an essay by Buster Olney that I found a perfect compliment to what I am trying to convey:
 
“Fact: A starting pitcher facing a lineup for a third time or fourth time will experience a decline in performance, generally. As a result, starters are getting pulled from games earlier than ever.
 
Fact: Relief pitchers are throwing at a higher velocity than ever, diminishing hitters' chances to put the ball in play.
 
Fact: As it has become more difficult to generate hits against higher velocity and defensive shifts, hitters are taking more aggressive swings, at higher launch angles, in an effort to lift the ball. This approach is generating more homers and, apparently, rocket-fueling the pace of strikeouts.
 
Some executives who have followed the numbers and helped design the dramatic changes to the sport are OK with the big swings, big flies and big whiffs. “I’ve got no problem with it,” one club official said the other day. “We’re just trying to adapt and win ballgames.”
 
But a lot of executives abhor the Frankenstein monster that the numbers and science have helped create, with the dueling parades of relief pitchers and increasingly overpowered hitters. “I hate it,” one high-ranking evaluator said. “It’s just not that fun to watch.” http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/18486/olney-have-big-swings-big-flies-and-big-whiffs-broken-baseball
 
I chose Judge and Sano to compare because they represent the new approach, but one has been much better at it than the other. Sano has both the K and the DL as issues – the most games he has appeared in during his Twins career is 71% of the season. He has collected 5.5 WAR in 4 seasons, Judge has 9.3 in three seasons. My problem is, that I think Sano has as much potential as Judge. How do we get him to realize it?
 
In an era where the big K and big HR totals are everywhere the player that succeeds is the one with fewer Ks and more HRs or else establishes his ability in other stats. Sano has 76 HRs in 330 games, Judge has 64 in 215 games. Judge beats Sano in OPS, but more important as a Twin fan – Sano set his OPS bar in year one and has come no where close to it since.
 
Baseball is worried about length of game, but it should be worried about the action that keeps fans attention from inning to inning. Waiting for a K or HR is boring - Last year “117 batters hitting 20 or more homers -- far more than in 2001, in the height of the steroid era, when 88 hitters clubbed 20 or more homers, and far more than in 2011, when 68 hitters got to the 20-homer mark.”
 
At the same time starting pitchers are pitching less – an Ace is still only a 5 or 6 inning arm. Do we really enjoy a parade of relief pitchers? I would love to see the manager limited to three per game. I am also out of touch with many in that I love the 300+ hitter more than the 20 HR hitters. And I liked the SB and all the moves that involved both bat control and speed.
 
I would like Sano back, but I would also like an improved approach.

The other guy is always better than what you have – right? Well that is the thought that dominates the off-season and so we are sad that we did not sign Yu Darvish (actually if you saw my posts you know I did not want him). Since we had an article looking at the first ten days and projecting the season I thought it might be good to see what we missed.
 
Yu Darvish just had a memorable melt down over a balk, but even more exciting are his statistics during a stretch that was supposed to be the easy part of the cubs schedule. His line – 0 – 1, 6.00 ERA for three starts, 1.533 WHIP and a -0.1 WAR (yes minus).
 
Then there was the idea of the big trade for Chris Archer – who has a -0.3 WAR, a 5.94 ERA, and 1.50 WHIP, but he is 1 – 0! And all we had to do was give up on Kepler and some other young assets.
 
Of course we did sign some assets because they are better than our minor league prospects – Logan Morrison and his -0.5 WAR is hitting .088, slugging .118 with an OPS of 3.23 and it was worth giving up Chargois and other relief prospects to get Zach Duke with a -0.4 WAR 11.25 ERA and 2.25 Whip and Fernando Rodney with a 0.0 WAR 3.86 ERA, and 1.929 WHIP.
 
The last piece to the puzzle was Lance Lynn who has 0.1 WAR with a 5.00 ERA and 1.778 Whip so we did not have to use Mejia, Romero, or Gonsalves.
 
To be fair that is only 4 of 6 players we picked up and Addison Reed 0.5 WAR, 1.13 ERA is the real thing in the bullpen and Odorizzi has 0.8 WAR and 2.20 ERA and 1.347 WHIP. I guess .333 is a good average in baseball, not sure that applies to signing players.
 
As a person who always prefers the young players I think I would have liked to see Odorizzi and Reed with the other money going to sign Dozier and extend our young players. I would have liked one of our young players instead of Lynn, Duke, and Rodney and maybe kept Chargois who has 0.2 WAR and a 0.00 Era in 5 games and I just might have left Vargas at DH until one of our prospects steps up.

The Cedar Rapids Kernels hit the frozen ground running this season, jumping off to a 6-0 record before finally suffering their first loss of the year on Friday night against Clinton.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Sammons0413e-600x400.jpg
Bryan Sammons delivers a pitch Friday, April 13, against Clinton (Photo: SD Buhr)
 
Don’t say the start surprised their manager, Toby Gardenhire, though. With a lineup as full of highly regarded prospects as this Kernels roster is, he’s not going to be too surprised with short term success.
 
“I don’t know if I’d call it surprised,” Gardenhire said on Friday before that night’s frigid game. “We’ve got a lot of guys that are doing some really good things right now. Any time you can run off a stretch like we’ve done here, it means there are a lot of people doing their job and doing a really good job of it.
 
“That’s the nice thing about our lineup,” he continued. “We have a whole bunch of guys that are really exciting. Whether they’re going to do it on a given night, that’s the question, but we’ve had a lot of guys step up and do some pretty impressive things, so it’s been fun.”
 
Still, even if the early success isn’t surprising, this is not exactly how the Cedar Rapids Kernels’ season was supposed to start out.
 
You simply don’t expect four of your first 11 games (including three of your first five home dates) to be postponed due to cold and snow.
 
Cold or not, you can’t argue with success.
 
Cedar Rapids opened the 2018 campaign April 5 with a 2-0 shutout of the Quad Cities River Bandits in Davenport, then had the next night’s game postponed.
 
They topped Quad Cities again, 4-3, in Cedar Rapids’ home opener on April 7. Then had another postponement the next day.
 
They did get an entire four-game series played in Peoria during the middle of the week and it’s a good thing they did, too! The Kernels swept all four games from the Chiefs.
 
They won the first game of the series 3-1, which means they had outscored their opponents 9-4 through the first three games they played. It wasn’t exactly a demonstration of the kind of offensive fire power that fans were expecting to see from a lineup that included two first round draft choices and often saw “slot picks” (players drafted in the first 10 rounds of the amateur draft) at all nine spots in the batting order.
 
That all changed as the weather crawled up to more normal levels over the final three games of the series in Peoria. The Kernels scored 8, 12 and 9 runs, respectively, in those games while posting their perfect 6-0 record through Thursday.
 
In three of those four games against the Chiefs, Cedar Rapids had to mount comebacks after falling behind Peoria. That fact wasn’t lost on their manager, either.
 
“That’s our lineup,” the manager said. “You don’t expect that, but I would say, at this point, right now, we don’t really ever feel like we’re out of it with the group of guys that we’ve got going.
 
“Now that changes, it fluctuates throughout the season. There’s days when you’re going to be down and think, ‘uh oh, we’re never going to come back in this one,’ but with the way the guys are playing right now and swinging, their confidence level is very high right now and that helps out a ton, too. With these guys’ confidence level right now, being down doesn’t scare them.”
 
Alex Kirilloff, the first round pick of the Twins in 2016, had a two-home run game in the series and 2017 first overall pick Royce Lewis notched his first home run of the season during the Peoria series, as well.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Gardenhire0413a-400x600.jpg
Kernels manager Toby Gardenhire (Photo: SD Buhr)
 
For our purposes, we’ll just try to pretend Friday night’s 2-0 loss to Clinton didn’t happen. I’m sure the Kernels hitters would like to, anyway, after managing just a pair of singles and one walk against the Lumberkings on a frigid night in Cedar Rapids. (Games 2 and 3 of the scheduled weekend series were postponed due to cold and snow).
 
That one forgettable game aside, it’s been a pretty impressive opening act for this group of Minnesota Twins prospects.
 
On a team with a pair of first round picks, it might come as a surprise that outfielder Mark Contreras has led the team’s offense, so far. The Twins’ 9th round pick out of UC-Riverside is off to a hot start in the five games he’s played, with a .444 batting average and a 1.029 OPS. And that’s after an 0-3 night against Clinton on Friday.
 
Catcher (and 2016 2nd round pick) Ben Rortvedt also went 0-3 against the Lumberkings, but Rortvedt is still hitting .400 and has a healthy .979 OPS.
 
Obviously, this early in the season, these are all small sample sizes and it would be unwise to put much (or any, really) stock in stat lines that accumulate over just a handful of games, most of which took place in very unpleasant weather conditions.
 
Still, that 6-1 record is looking pretty good, so far.
 
As encouraging as the way his young lineup is playing under challenging conditions, Gardenhire is just as happy with what he’s seeing from his pitching corps.
 
“Our starting pitching has been good,” Gardehire observed. “They’ve been able to get us into the fourth or fifth inning just about every game.”
 
That may not seem like much and, later in the season when temperatures warm up and arms are healthy and loose, the bar will be set at a much different level. But this is April and many of these games have had game time temperatures around 40 degrees. Maybe lower.
 
“In the beginning of the season,” the manager explained, “(getting 4-5 innings) is all you’re hoping for. Get us 75 to 80 pitches and get us into the fifth. Past the fifth is great. And they’ve been doing that just about every game and keeping it close while they do it.”
 
Bryan Sammons, the only Kernels starting pitcher to take the mound for two starts so far, has a 0.96 ERA in those two starts, spanning 9 1/3 innings, and a WHIP of just 1.07.
 
But four or five innings is only half the game and the Kernels have been holding opponents in check after that, as well, as Gardenhire pointed out about his relief arms.
 
“Our bullpen has been great. They’ve just done a really good job. Guys are starting to get comfortable. This early in the season, you expect a lot more of the yips and guys being pretty nervous going out there. And we haven’t had a ton of that. We’ve had some guys go out there and be a little bit nervous, but for the most part, guys have stepped up and done really well.”
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Molina0413a-600x400.jpg
Kernels pitcher Derek Molina (Photo: SD Buhr)
 
Three members of the bullpen, Jared Finkel, Calvin Faucher and Derek Molina, have yet to surrender an earned run. Finkel has made three appearances and Faucher a pair of them. Molina threw two scoreless innings of relief Friday night after joining the team as a replacement for Ryan Mason, who had been so effective in his three appearances that he earned a promotion to Class High-A Fort Myers.
 
All told, ten of the fourteen pitchers who have made at least one appearance for the Kernels so far have early-season ERAs of 2.25 or lower.
 
Of course, it’s early and nobody will claim ERA means everything (or even much) when it comes to judging a pitcher’s effectiveness, but up and down the stat list, several Kernels are striking out a batter or more per inning and walking less than half of the number of batters they are striking out.
 
It’s an encouraging start.
 
The Kernels have a scheduled off day on Monday, following the two unscheduled days off on the weekend. Then they head to Beloit for a three-game series against the Snappers, where temperatures are projected to run anywhere from a low of 25 to a high of 45 over those three days. Oh, and there’s a fair chance of snow on Wednesday. Of course there is.
 
All of these postponements are going to wreak havoc on an already hectic schedule for the Kernels in May, too.
 
They start out the month of May with series against Eastern Division clubs and will go on the road to Dayton and then Bowling Green. Their only scheduled day off in the entire month is Sunday, May 13. But since that’s the day after their series finale in Bowling Green the night of the 12th, how do you think that day is going to be spent?
 
If you guessed a very long bus ride throughout the night and into the morning, you’d be correct.
 
Then from May 14 through June 3, the Kernels will play 24 games in 21 days.
 
Their make up game with Quad Cities will be on May 16. This will be a “split double header,” with the first game being the regularly scheduled noon game and the nightcap starting at 6:35. Both games will be 7-inning games, just as traditional double header games are in the Midwest League.
 
Memorial Day weekend could be the real gauntlet for the ballclub, though.
 
That’s the next time that Clinton is scheduled to return to Cedar Rapids and both of this weekend’s games will be made up as part of traditional double headers over the Holiday weekend. One on Saturday, May 26, starting at 5:05, and the other on Sunday, May 27, beginning at 2:05.
 
I know it’s probably not going to be necessary, but I’m thinking I’m going to loosen up the throwing arm earlier that week. You just have to figure Gardenhire and his pitching coaches are going to be looking around for anyone who can throw the ball 60 feet by the time that Sunday evening rolls around.
 
That’s next month’s concern, of course, so we’ll worry about that when the time comes.
 
The next home series in Cedar Rapids kicks off this coming Friday night, April 20, and it’s a special one.
 
Royce Lewis is the first “number one overall” draft pick to suit up for the club and the Kernels are celebrating with a “Royce Lewis Bobblehead” promotion.
 
While the Kernels have done bobblehead promotions honoring past players with some level of frequency, this is the first time they’ve honored a current Kernels player in that manner.
 
Only the first 1.000 fans through the gates will get a bobblehead, though, so if you want one, you probably should plan to get in line early.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Lewis-and-bobblehead-600x600.jpg
Royce Lewis poses with his bobblehead (Photo lifted from Kernels Twitter feed, but if you don't tell them, I won't tell them, ok?)
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)

In 2017, Royce Lewis was a standout player on and off the field. Last year he hit .279/.360/.407 with the Gulf Coast League Twins and the Cedar Rapid Kernels. His exceptional skills made me wonder. How does he stack up against previous #1 draft picks out of High School?
 
There is no doubt that Ken Griffey Jr. was the best #1 pick out of High School. However, what about players like Carlos Correa, Mickey Moniak, Joe Mauer, Chipper Jones, and Josh Hamilton?
 
Royce Lewis (54 games) - .279/.360/.407
Mickey Moniak (46 games) - .284/.340/.407
Carlos Correa (39 games)- .301/.360/.477
Joe Mauer (32 games)- .400/.492/.491
Chipper Jones (44 games) - .229/.321/.271
Josh Hamilton (72 games) - .321/.340/.510
 
As you can see, Royce ranks 5th for batting average, tied for 2nd in the OBP category, and tied for 4th in SLG. Mauer’s first year averaged out to be the best out of all 5 other players. Royce’s numbers were not as good as the other players, but I believe that he will produce some eye opening numbers good enough to move up to the Fort Myers Miracle after the All-Star break.

Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton are arguably the Twins most notable young stars. On offense, they provide value in different ways, but Paul Molitor's hope is to get a high level of production out of each of them. So early into the 2018 Major League Baseball season, there's not much to be said about the sample sizes or returns. One thing appears certain though, opposing pitchers are attacking the Minnesota duo in a similar fashion.
 
Through their first four games, Sano and Buxton have seemed to be pulling off a handful of pitches when observing through the functions of the eye test. Both players have inflated swinging strike rates out of the gate (Buxton 22.7% Sano 21.2%), and it appears a good deal of the misses are coming in a similar place. When looking at the zone profiles for each batter, Sano and Buxton are both missing pitches in a near identical location.
 
Although opposing pitchers are making Sano work a bit more when it comes to pitch recognition, the low and away pitch presents a similar challenge for both Twins hitters. When Buxton is in the box, he seems to get a steady diet of fastballs in, with the out pitch being a sweeping slider or curveball that darts away. Bat speed isn't a problem for Buxton at this stage, but attempting to turn on a pitch darting away is almost always going to induce soft contact. Miguel may not be seeing as many pitches tail away, but the ball getting to that bottom right corner of the zone still doesn't present an opportunity for it to be driven out to left field.
 
Looking back at their body of work as a whole, I don't think there's any reason to suggest that either Buxton or Sano is a dead pull hitter with a significant deficiency when it comes to going the opposite way. Both have a significant amount of thump in their bat, and hitting to the pull side, when possible, is going to be conducive of the most ideal results. What we can see based upon where pitchers are throwing them, and the contact that comes as a result, is that the "when possible" note holds some significant weight.
 
Again, just looking back over the small sample size that is the 2018 season, both Sano and Buxton have an instance in which they properly attacked the low and away pitch. Against the Orioles on April 2, both players were served pitches more towards their swing and miss zone (although Sano's was pretty close to middle in). Buxton sat on the pitch (a fastball as opposed to a slider), and drove it to right field for a single with a 106 mph exit velocity. Sano attacked his opportunity to the tune of a 110 mph opposite field home run. Despite not utilizing a breaking pitch, Orioles pitcher Kevin Gausman tried to attack the two Twins hitters in a place where they've shown a deficiency. Handled correctly however, both were able to execute a solid approach and generate favorable results.
Over the course of the full season, protecting the outside corner of the strike zone will continue to be a must for the pair. While Buxton isn't going to hit home runs at the pace Sano will, both have the opportunity to accumulate significantly more hits if they can read up on the book that's apparently out on them. Taking away opposing pitchers areas of opportunity only will help to raise their own threat level at the plate.
 
At any level of the game, getting away from the tendency to yank everything, or finish swings early, is a practice that requires real discipline. By trusting their bat speed, and knowledge of the strike zone itself, there should be plenty of baseballs that both Miguel and Byron can drive into right field. For now, opposing pitchers are likely going to remain focusing on that area of the zone, and it'll be up to the two Twins stars to force their hand.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The Minnesota Twins abruptly canceled the remainder of the 2018 season today after losing their opening game to the Baltimore Orioles, 3 to 2.
 
"Crushing defeat," said Derek Falvey, who took the rap like a man. "I apologize to the Pohlad family for putting a losing squad on the field. I hereby submit my resignation."
 
Falvey was quickly joined by the rest of the Front Office, plus all the Twins coaches and Paul Molitor, the team's Hall of Fame manager.
 
Various players either simply left town or announced their retirement. Joe Mauer plans to start a trout fishing club, possibly hiring Kent Hrbek as coach and manager. "Fishing and golf are all baseball players know," said Mauer. "I'm too old to become a pro golfer, but I think I can still catch a fish."
 
Fans concerned about refunds for season tickets are out of luck. The Pohlads are keeping the money.

*Note: This article has been updated. The previous image of Kershaw's release point was horizontal instead of vertical. This error has since been amended.
 
2018 is a pivotal year for Ryan Pressly. The Twins originally acquired Pressly from Boston in the 2012 Rule 5 draft. In five season in Minnesota, Pressly has oscillated between very good (2016 version), and so-so, (2017 version). With the front office adding significant major league talent this off-season, and a chunk of organizational relief talent in the high minors (Curtiss, Reed etc.), Pressly is entering a crucial season. He is out of minor league options. For a Twins team hoping to challenge for the AL Central, a poor April-June may mean the end of his tenure with the team.
 
On paper, Ryan Pressly is everything the Twins want to help anchor a bullpen which has lacked dominant arms in recent years. In January, Pressly agreed to a $1.6 million contract with the Twins for 2018, avoiding arbitration. Stuff-wise, Pressly is the kind of arm the Twins have needed to stick at the major league level. He can throw five pitches (fourseam fastball, cutter, slider, curve, and sinker) and has well-above average velocity (his fastball averaged 96mph in 2017). Pressly also generates a ton of swings and misses, with a 12.4% SwStr% (swinging strike %). For context, this was 38th in MLB for relievers who threw at least 60 innings, sandwiched right around Brad Hand and Bryan Shaw. So why hasn’t Pressly managed to produce more consistently excellent results, given his impressive arsenal?
 
Variable Release Points
I’m about to do something extremely unfair to Ryan Pressly; compare him to Clayton Kershaw. That’s not really reasonable. Kershaw is perhaps, the greatest pitcher of his generation, a starter, and left-handed. Pressly is none of those things. The comparison is useful however. In the table below, you’ll see Kershaw’s vertical release points for all his pitches charted throughout the 2017 season. Notice the consistency in release points for his pitches (how clustered together they are). The result of this is all his pitches are coming at hitters from an extremely similar height, increasing the likelihood of deceiving the hitter. Pitchers typically go through subtle variations in their release points throughout the season. When Kershaw’s vertical release dips or increases in one pitch, the rest follow suit.
 




 
By contrast, Pressly has wide fluctuations in his vertical release, both throughout the season, and in between his pitches. There are two months’ worth noting in his 2017 season, May, and August. In May, there was a much greater range in the vertical release points of Pressly’s fastball and slider (his primary two pitches). In August he brought those two release points (although lower) much closer together. Pressly managed an ERA of 11.00 in May with a .324 BAA, and a 1.13 ERA in August with a 0.96 BAA. When Pressly is able to release the ball from consistent vertical coordinates, regardless of the pitch, he has the velocity required to dominate opposing hitters.
 
Slider Command
Pressly employs both a curveball and slider as breaking pitches. 2017 saw a significant reduction in the amount Pressly used his slider (dropping from around 25% to around 18%). Both of Pressly’s breaking pitches have fairly minimal vertical break and are both above average in velocity. When throwing breaking pitches without a ton of break, command is everything. Below are two charts mapping Pressly’s slider and curveball location in 2017.
 




 
It’s immediately noticeable that Pressly leaves far too many sliders over the heart of the plate. By comparison, Pressly locates his curveball more consistently down and away to RHH (down and in to LHH). His slider command struggle is reflected in the effectiveness of both pitches in 2017. Pressly’s curveball had a .194 SLG against in 2017 (with around 21% whiffs), compared to .463 SLG for his slider (around 15% whiffs). In other words, when Pressly left his slider over the plate, the break he generates is not enough to save him, and excellent professional hitters tend to have their way with it. For one final comparison, the last chart here shows Pressly’s slider command in 2016, his best full season with the Twins. His ability to cluster slider location down in the zone is noticeable. In 2016, Pressly gave up a .375 SLG on his slider, and .089 ISO, compared with .256 ISO in 2017.
 


 
Upon looking into Pressly’s numbers more closely, there’s only one conclusion to draw, he’s never established great enough level of consistency in his mechanics throughout his tenure with the Twins. Variations in his release point and command struggles have diminished the impact of his incredible arm. If Pressly is going to stick in the Twins’ pen long term, mechanical consistency is the key lever that needs to improve to capitalize on his excellent arm

As the 2018 Major League Baseball seasons draws ever more near, the Minnesota Twins are looking to replicate a season that saw its end in the postseason. While they'd prefer to avoid the one-game playoff in the Wild Card game, that would mean overtaking the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central. With the division looking like a two horse race, it's worth checking in on the possibility of that outcome.
 
In observing the Indians from afar, comparing them to the Twins may be best done by positional group. If we break down the active roster into groups consisting of starters, relievers, infielders, outfielders, and bench, we should have a relatively clear five-subject analysis to look at. With those parameters set out in front of us, here's how the cream of the AL Central crop stacks up.
 
Starters: Indians
 
Even if the Twins sign Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta, the Minnesota rotation will fall behind that of Cleveland. While a Darvish, Jose Berrios, and Ervin Santana top three would rival Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer, it's the back end that has questions. For Paul Molitor, it's safe to assume a new name is going to enter the bunch, that means there will be just two spots left to fill out the rotation. Right now, it appears that those jobs will be owned by Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes out of the gate.
 
Terry Francona has the luxury of going to Danny Salazar as his fourth, and Mike Clevinger as his fifth. Salazar has as much upside as anyone, and his stuff gets big league batters out at an alarming rate (when he keeps it in the zone). Minnesota has the opportunity to raise the water level as 2018 draws on, and if someone like Stephen Gonsalves, Zack Littell, Fernando Romero, or a host of other arms forces out Gibson or Hughes, it would likely be for the better long term.
 
A year or two ago, the divide between the Twins and Indians on the mound was substantial. Given Kluber's Cy Young status, and the depth of the group overall, they still tout an impressive five. All things considered, Minnesota has closed the gap measurably, and that will continue to be an area of focus for the immediate future.
 
Relievers: Indians
 
Where the Twins were more top-heavy as opposed to having depth in the rotation, the two squads may be the opposite in the pen. Bryan Shaw is gone in Cleveland, and the innings eater won't be there for Francona to call on in 2018. They still boast an incredible one-two punch in Cody Allen and Andrew Miller however, and both could be named among the best in the bullpen across all of baseball. Behind that duo though, there's a relative falloff, and that's where Minnesota's opportunity comes in.
 
The trio of signings Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have made in relief this winter can be categorized as nothing short of a grand slam. Fernando Rodney has his warts, but he's still effective in the late-innings, with upper 90's stuff. Zach Duke is a great gamble even further removed from Tommy John surgery, and Addison Reed is among that "best relievers in Baseball" category. Adding that group to holdovers like Trevor Hildenberger and Taylor Rogers is a huge plus for Paul Molitor's club.
 
If Minnesota wants to nab this category, and they're very close to doing so, Ryan Pressly and Tyler Duffey need to be at their best. Pressly is an impact arm that can shoulder high leverage when he's right, while Duffey has worked late innings prior to his pro career and has a nice two pitch mix that profiles well in relief.
 
Infielders: Indians
 
This category is absolutely in Cleveland's favor, but the Twins aren't as distant as it may seem. Francisco Lindor is one of the best young players in the game, and whether or not his game ends up being power or average, he's going to hit. Jose Ramirez is the best star that doesn't get enough attention, and Yonder Alonso is coming off a breakout 2017. Losing Carlos Santana will hurt this group, and Jason Kipnis' best days are maybe behind him. As a whole though, this is a strong outfit.
 
It's obvious that Brian Dozier is the cornerstone of Minnesota's infield. Behind Jose Altuve, he is probably the second best player at the position. Jorge Polanco showed his bat will play down the stretch a season ago, and Miguel Sano is going to hit a good amount of longballs for plenty of years to come. If Joe Mauer continues to play elite defense, his value will fail to sag any time soon as well.
 
Behind the dish, I'd prefer Jason Castro and Mitch Garver over Roberto Perez and Yan Gomes, but I could be a bit bullish on what I expect from Garver in 2018.
 
Regardless of the total collection, these two infields are loaded with talent, and the Indians has a bit more sustainability and depth, the Twins aren't too far behind. Both of these groups can hit, and the fielding acumen is pretty close as well. As you can see becoming a trend, the gap is closing.
 
Outfielders: Twins
 
There's little argument to be made against Byron Buxton being the best outfielder in baseball. He's the game's best defender, and plays the premium position of the three spots. His speed and arm are both elite, while he continues to improve on route running. Should his bat again be ready to unleash the fury James Rowson helped to tease us with for the better part of 2017, Minnesota has an MVP candidate on its hands.
 
Both Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler have holes in their game, and despite his strong 2017, it's Rosario I'm more uncertain about. The strong arm is there, and he may profile better in right, but route efficienty has been somewhat of a question. Tightening up around the plate will benefit him, but he's always going to be a free-swinger. Kepler has the look of a Christian Yelich type, and that ceiling remains. If he's able to harness that ability in 2018, Minnesota will be in a great spot.
 
For the Indians, Bradley Zimmer has graduated from prospect status and is now expected to be a regular. Defense is an definite tool of his, but the bat lagged behind in his debut. Michael Brantley is an All Star, but his body is fighting against him, and Lonnie Chisenhall is nothing more than a rotational type at this point in his career. The group has plenty to offer, and doesn't have glaring weaknesses, but there's hardly a shining strength either.
 
Bench: Indians
 
Including the designated hitter into this equation, Cleveland's upper hand is significantly loaded from the top. Edwin Encarnacion is a destroyer of baseballs, and should be expected to continue with those contributions in the season ahead. Behind him however, there's a significant (and expected) drop off. Tyler Naquin is a nice rotational outfielder, and Giovanny Urshela seems to get plenty of use over the course of a season.
 
Unlike the Indians, Minnesota doesn't have a true DH (at least until it becomes Miguel Sano's assumed role). Robbie Grossman has been an invaluable add, and is an OBP machine, but he's slumped at times and is limited defensively. Eduardo Escobar is a very good utility man, and Ehire Adrianza gives the Twins a nice glove first player.
 
Looking at reserves, you're picking at straws to a certain extent. If you have a one-dimensional player though, allowing that to be a guy that trots the bases with a parrot on his arm is hardly a bad position to be in. If everything else gets taken care of for Minnesota this offseason, a bat addition would be nice, but it's not coming in the form of an impact player.
 
Overall, it's apparent the Twins are still playing second fiddle to the Cleveland Indians. What's also apparent is that the gap between the two clubs is no longer wide. With pitching being one of the greatest differences, Minnesota has drawn closer in relief. Over the course of a season series, or even the full 162 game slate, I'd be far from shocked to see these two clubs flip flop.
 
In the Twins last two competitive seasons (2015 & 2017), they went 12-7 and 7-12 against Falvey's former organization respectively. The divide probably isn't worthy of being nearly a 2:1 or 1:2 scenario, but that's the volatility that any one season brings. Right now, Cleveland is still the AL Central favorites, but Minnesota is making a run to change that, and the competition in the American League could push them to realizing a division crown as their best path to the postseason.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
-----
 
With the recent slew of raw data we have about hitters, based on Statcast, new metrics based on that raw data have been developed to predict hitter performance, based on objective measurements, such as bat exit speed and launch angle. One of these metrics is the expected weighted on base average, or xwOBA. It is meant to compare directly to wOBA, in a manner similar to that of xFIP to FIP comparison's for pitchers. And in the same manner if xFIP-FIP is a positive number for a player, as a baseline, you expect a player to improve next season, and the opposite if it is a negative numbers. Of course, this is one factor, and additional factors, like training, mechanics change, adding muscle etc, will affect future performance; however, unlike xwOBA-xOBA, they are hard to measure.
 
wOBA tries to measure a player's total offensive performance based on a series of weighted operations on offensive events on a players. The link will give you some basic information on the metric. xwOBA is a similar formula based on Statcast exit speed and launch angle. The link explains in detail the metric.
 
Here are the xwOBA for the 2017 Twins' batters in two groups:
 
The ones expected to improve in 2018:
 
 

 
The ones expected to decline in 2018:
 

 
As indicated only Joe Mauer, and in a lesser degree, Jason Castro are projected to improve, as far as the 2018 startling 9 of the Twins go. Pretty much everyone else is projected to decline.
 
If one looks at several projections about what the 2018 will do, which are based on xwOBA, expect them to show an overall decline in wins.
 
There is a silver lining: Other than Brian Dozier (and free agent Chris Gimenez,) most of the Twins' hitters expected to decline based on this formula are young, and the other factors like development, changes in mechanics, could easily trump these projections. If the 2017 Twins' hitters were an older bunch, things would have been different.

The Twins made an unexpected addition to their burgeoning bullpen over the weekend, adding former Mets and Red Sox reliever Addison Reed on a two-year pact worth $16.75 million. The deal profiles well for the Twins on a number of fronts. At 29, Reed is at the younger end of a relief pitching market deep in high quality back end bullpen arms. Reed represents the first multi-year deal the Twins have ever signed with an outside reliever in free agency. In spite of this, the Twins locked Reed up on a short contract, at a price which they undoubtedly would have had to surpass had they signed him earlier in free agency.
 
Reed joins a Twins bullpen shaping up to be vastly different, and potentially much improved over its 2017 iteration. In addition to returning standout Trevor Hildenberger, the Twins have added Fernando Rodney, presumably filling the vacant ninth inning role, and Zach Duke, returning from an injury-plagued 2017 season. In the former trio, the Twins seemed to have established a penchant for the traits they are pursuing in improving their bullpen; inducing ground balls and a lot of strikeouts, hardly a pioneering recipe for success. In Reed however, they have added a pitcher who generates more fly balls, so what about Reed has made him such a consistent a reliable late inning reliever?
 
There’s no real intricacy in Reed’s pitch mix. He throws a four seem fastball around 66% of the time, a slider 33% of the time, and a changeup about as often as Byron Buxton gets caught stealing a base. Reed has excellent control, posting a walk rate of 1.51 BB/9 in 2016 and 1.78 BB/9 in 2017. Reed’s 2017 BB/9 was good for 11th among relievers who pitched at least 50 innings. This level of control was not always a staple of Reed’s pitching. In his first 3 seasons in MLB his BB/9 oscillated between 2.90 and 3.05. While this may seem like a trivial difference, this is a difference of around 10-11 walks over a 75 inning sample, a big deal when you’re constantly pitching in high leverage situations. So what is at the root of Reed’s improved control since the beginning of the 2016 season?
 
In 2016, Reed produced a dramatic improvement in his overall numbers. In addition to refining his control, Reed stranded around 5% more baserunners, increased his K/9 from 8.2 to 10.55 and dropped his xFIP from 4.04 to 2.09. Reed has never had elite velocity. While some have commented on a dip in velocity throughout the past two seasons, his average four seam fastball velocity has remained fairly consistent, dropping from 93.66 mph in April of 2015 to 92.72 mph in October of 2017. So if Reed isn’t blowing hitters away, how did his K/9 improve and stick above 9.0 in his last two seasons?
 
The number that jumps out in Reed’s improvement from 2015 to 2016 is his F-Strike% (percentage of the time Reed is throwing a first pitch strike). In 2015 Reed’s F-Strike% was around 56%. In 2016, it jumped to 70%. For the sake of comparison, old friend Pat Neshek had an F-Strike% of 71.1% in 2017 and had an incredible BB/9 of 0.87. This is a dramatic improvement from Reed which is even more impressive when visualized.
 
Here’s a look at Reed’s heat map from 2015. This charts the percentage a pitch falls within a sub-location of the strike zone. For all three of these searches I looked at heat maps representing the first pitch of a plate appearance, exclusively when Reed threw his four seem fastball. You’ll immediately notice a stark contrast between 2015 and 2016. Reed improved in two notable areas, pounding the strike zone with a greater level of consistency, and using a greater portion of the strike zone when throwing first pitch strikes. We see a similar performance in 2017 (although not quite as impressive). Interestingly, Reed’s obvious trend in locating his first pitch strikes higher in the zone in resulted in opposing batters OPS increasing from .587 in 2016, to .862 in 2017.
 






 
So where does Reed fit in the back end of a Twins bullpen which has been dramatically upgraded from a year ago? Initially, there was contention that adding Reed might create a closer controversy in Minnesota. The Twins had recently added Fernando Rodney to the pen on a one year deal. It seems as if the Twins will stick with Rodney as their primary ninth inning option. Since taking on his role with the Twins, Paul Molitor has been criticized in his bullpen management for traditionalism, a tendency to use each of his relievers in a pre-determined role. Intractably funneling Rodney into save situations may allow Molitor the luxury of using both Reed and Trevor Hildenberger as more flexible relievers, whose appearances are dictated by the leverage of a given situation, rather than the inning they are pitching in. In addition to providing Molitor with another quality arm, Reed may provide the impetus for Molitor to get more creative in facilitating the evolution of the Twins bullpen, maximizing the potential of a vastly upgraded group.

This is a series of evaluations that will be done this offseason on every player that closed the season on the 40-man roster for the Minnesota Twins throughout the winter until each player has been evaluated. The plan is to start with Mr. Belisle and move all the way through the pitchers, then to the catchers, infielders, outfielders and finally those listed as designated hitters on the club’s official MLB.com roster. That means we’ll wrap it up with Kennys Vargas sometime before the season starts.

Name: Alan Busenitz
2017 Role: Flame-throwing righty who earned Paul Molitor’s trust, and later-inning work, as the season went on.
Expected 2018 Role: Role will depend on how many bats he misses; could be a setup man or could just be another guy.
MLB Stats: 1.99 ERA, 4.20 FIP in 31.2 innings; 6.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.98 WHIP, 0.1 fWAR, 0.7 bWAR.
MiLB Stats: 1.78 ERA, 2.15 FIP in 35.1 innings at Triple-A Rochester
Contract Status: Arbitration-eligible after 2020, free agent after 2023

 
2017 Lowdown:
 
Busenitz came on the scene with the Twins as the lesser-known commodity in the deal that sent Ricky Nolasco and Alex Meyer to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and returned Hector Santiago. To that point, Busenitz was a hard-throwing 26-year-old righty with no big-league experience, though he got a late start as a college draft pick (senior sign) from Kennesaw State University.
 
Not only that, but he played five years of college baseball, which is exceptionally rare. He spent two years at Georgia Perimeter College, then three with the Owls because his 2012 season was abbreviated by Tommy John surgery. Still, he’s a pretty great story. In his first year at Georgia Perimeter, he had a 4.37 ERA and a WHIP of 1.54. In his first two seasons at Kennesaw State — before getting hurt — he had a combined ERA that was close to 7.00 and a WHIP of nearly 2.00.
 
But Busenitz made his way up the Angels system, pitching in relief for all but eight games in a brief stop at Double-A Arkansas — and not a good one, as he posted a 6.75 ERA. Even his minors numbers at most stops aren’t exceptionally strong. He blitzed the low minors like most 20-somethings should, but that first snag at Double-A Arkansas wasn’t that long ago (2015).
 
He barely pitched at Triple-A in 2016 in the Angels system, and it went poorly to say the least. He allowed 11 earned runs in 13 innings (7.62 ERA) while opposing batters hit .308/.383/.462 against him. It’s not surprising he lasted just a month and a day before he was shipped to Double-A — though it was in Chattanooga, as he was then traded to the Twins.
 
Like he has with pretty much every challenge in his career, Busenitz thrived in his second go-round at Triple-A, twirling a 1.78 ERA over 35.1 innings before the Twins gave him his first MLB call.
 
He certainly didn’t disappoint with the Twins, either, posting a 1.99 ERA over 28 appearances spanning 31.2 innings. Now it’d be easy to point out that Busenitz had a FIP of 4.20, thanks in large part to an unsustainably low BABIP (.212) and a high strand rate (86.6 percent), and he also didn’t do much strikeouts-wise with his blazing fastball, fanning just 6.5 batters per nine despite averaging 95.7 mph on the heater.
 
Please click through to Zone Coverage here to read the rest of this story!

Ah, New Years, time for resolutions that will last a week or two. Let’s lose all our extra pounds, work out more, be smarter, be more beautiful… Well it is a time of reflection which is good and it is a time for hope. And no sport is better situated to take advantage of hope than baseball. Hockey and basketball are in the middle of their never-ending seasons and football just eliminated hope for over half their teams with the playoffs about to begin. But baseball is in the smoky haze of the hot stove. It is a time to reflect, speculate, lie, and hope. We are all equal, we can all sign the big star, we know the next great player is about to be called up from the minors, and we are all undefeated. So, until Spring training ends, I nominate the Twins as the 2018 World Series champions. I can revisit that prediction many times in the next few months and like most New Years resolutions and predictions it will be hard to remember anyway.
 
But there are some interesting stories in MLB that revolve around that eternal hope. In 90 years baseball had no team go from worst to first! Not one. Then over the next two dozen years we had 11 teams do it. That doesn’t happen in football – sorry Cleveland – but baseball is a resilient sport. Remember 1991? The Twins and the Braves both went worst to first and the greatest world series of all times took place that year. I am still excited remembering those games and walking down the street after each victory.
 
Then we cheat – instead of 2 leagues there are three divisions in each of the leagues giving six chances for worst to first. But if you won, who cares! Imagine the year 2000 and how impossible it would have seemed to have both the Red Sox and the Cubs win the World Series – both with the same GM! That is really worst to first.
Even the seven teams that have never won a World Series: the Seattle Mariners, the Texas Rangers, the Tampa Bay Rays, the Milwaukee Brewers, the Washington Nationals, the Colorado Rockies and the San Diego Padres can look ahead and hope. Seattle and Washington can hope to get to their first world series ever. It is all possible – probably not likely – but possible.
 
For teams that have been to the World Series, but have not won for a long, long time we always have hope – for the last two years Cleveland hoped to join the Red Sox/Cubs bandwagon, but now have a drought of 69 years since they won a championship. The Pirates are the National League team with the longest drought since winning. I remember the WE ARE FAMILY teams of Clemente and Stargell; well it has been 38 years since they won.
 
Perhaps the most difficult drought for me to accept is in Baltimore where we had all those great Earl Weaver teams with perennial 20 game winners throughout the rotation and the Robinsons at bat and in the field. But they have 34 years since their last greatness. And the list goes on with the Tigers, Mets, Dodgers, etc. But all have hope today. Today everyone is a winner.
 
In 2003 the Florida Marlins won a world series with Dontrelle Willis and Josh Beckett! I think that is the same team that just got rid of their MVP, all world slugger and anyone else that can lift a baseball bat, but maybe they can find the magic anyway (I doubt it). In 2003 they had Ivan Rodriguez, Derek Lee and Mike Lowell – not all studs, but they won! One of the worst world series champions, but who cares – there are no asterisks in the champion list and of course they then got rid of their best players – sounds familiar?
 
Or the unlikely 1987 Minnesota Twins. I remember watching the Hrbek wrestling match on first base while sitting in a bar in Arizona. The bar went crazy and I had one of the best laughs ever. Do you remember who pitched besides Viola and Blyleven? Good luck.
 
And if we are remembering worst to first we should also look back on the Florida Marlins again for some perspective. In 1997 the won the World Series and in 1998 their record was 54 – 108. What kind of ownership does this? Jeter was not around in those years.
 
The same potential lies in every player. Mickey Vernon hit 275 before going in to the service. Then he came out to win the batting title beating teammate Ted Williams. Going back to a more natural average he hit 251 until he was 35 and suddenly won his second title – yes, every year is a clean slate. I remember the shock of Detroit Slugger Norm Cash winning the batting title win a 361 average. For 17 years he was known for home runs and not average (he was also known for corking his bat), but that year he set the league on fire.
 
Who will be our surprise of the new year? Who will come out of no where to be the next Mark (Big Bird) Fidrych? The bird was as famous for his mound presence as he was for pitching, but a 19 – 4 record with a 2.34 era and a 1.08 Whip is hard to ignore.
 
I remember well the 1957 seasons when the Milwaukee braves called up Bob Hazle who went crazy and was the star of the team – that included Hank Aaron, Eddie Mathews, Red Schoendienst, Warren Spahn. He hit 403 in 41 games and was probably the world series winners MVP.
 
We all know Bill James for his Sabremetrics (Aside – I am not big on Marvin Miller, GMs, owners, umps, etc in HOF but I would put in Bill) however this is about the big surprises that carry the year and the Bill James that makes that list was a pitcher who was known as Seattle Bill. He completed 30 of 37 starts with a 1.90 era! He was outstanding in the WS as well with 11 scoreless innings for the 1914 Braves and then he faded – fast!
Joe Charboneau was a Cleveland star who was going to bring back the team glory. A slugger with charisma – he even got his own song - https://www.bing.com/videos/search?
 
q=joe+charboneau+song&view=detail&mid=C0A94198CFAADC3B4FF9C0A94198CFAADC3B4FF9&FORM=VIRE he was famous for opening beer bottles with his eyelids - Great story – short career! But how fun for Cleveland that one year.
There was Brady Anderson who hit 12 – 15 homeruns a year for the Baltimore Orioles, but in 1996 he hit 50! Some stars like Bob Grim who won 20 games as a Yankee Rookie, but was devastated by a line drive are a much sadder remembrances of how things can change.
 
Baseball is filled with stories and promise. So Happy New Year and congratulations to the 2018 World Series Champion Minnesota Twins (so far).

What if the Twins had drafted Mark Prior or Mark Teixeira instead of Joe Mauer?
Key Players Affected by Alternate Draft Choices
2002 Prior WAR: 2.6 ERA 3.32 FIP 3.16 xFIP 3.04
2003 Prior WAR: 7.5 ERA 2.43 FIP 2.47 xFIP 2.92
2004 Prior WAR: 2.7 ERA 4.02 FIP 3.53 xFIP 3.64
2005 Prior WAR: 2.8 ERA 3.67 FIP 3.85 xFIP 3.38
2006 Prior awful
2002 Mauer xxx
2003 Mauer xxx
2004 Mauer WAR 1.2 .308/.369/.570 wRC+ 139
2005 Mauer WAR 3.4 .294/.372/.411 wRC+ 108
2006 Mauer WAR 6.2 .347/.429/.507 wRC+ 141
2007 Mauer WAR 3.1 .293/.382/.426 wRC+ 114
2008 Mauer WAR 5.9 .328/.413/.451 wRC+ 133
2009 Mauer WAR 7.7 .365/.444/.587 wRC+ 170
2010 Mauer WAR 5.3 .327/.402/.469 wRC+ 136
2010 Ramos WAR .3 .278/.305/.405 wRC+ 91
2004 Pierzynski WAR 1.1 .272/.319/.410 wRC+ 88
2005 Pierzynski WAR 1.8 .257/.308/.420 wRC+ 88
2006 Pierzynski WAR 2.0 .295/.333/.436 wRC+ 93
2004 Nathan WAR 3.2 ERA 1.62 FIP 2.16 xFIP 3.24
2005 Nathan WAR 2.7 ERA 2.70 FIP 2.21 xFIP 2.81
2006 Nathan WAR 3.2 ERA 1.58 FIP 1.68 xFIP 2.39
2007 Nathan WAR 2.1 ERA 1.88 FIP 2.65 xFIP 3.17
2008 Nathan WAR 2.0 ERA 1.33 FIP 2.79 xFIP 2.90
2009 Nathan WAR 2.0 ERA 2.40 FIP 2.88 xFIP 2.95
2006 Liriano WAR 3.8 ERA 2.16 FIP 2.55 xFIP 2.38
2007 Liriano xxx
2008 Liriano WAR 1.5 ERA 3.91 FIP 3.87 xFIP 4.25
2009 Liriano WAR 1.0 ERA 5.80 FIP 4.87 xFIP 4.48
2010 Liriano WAR 5.7 ERA 3.62 FIP 2.66 xFIP 2.95
2004 Blanco WAR 0.4 .206/.260/.368 wRC+59
2006 Bonser WAR 1.3 ERA 4.22 FIP 4.55 xFIP 4.08
2007 Bonser WAR 1.4 ERA 5.10 FIP 4.91 xFIP 4.40
2008 Bonser WAR 1.2 ERA 5.93 FIP 4.19 xFIP 4.13
2002 Lohse WAR 1.8 ERA 4.23 FIP 4.77 xFIP 4.72
2003 Rogers WAR 3.1 ERA 4.57 FIP 4.25 xFIP 4.38
2003 Teixeira WAR 1.9 .259/.331/.480 wRC+105
2004 Teixeira WAR 4.0 .281./370/.560 wRC+129
2005 Teixeira WAR 5.9 .301/.379/.575 wRC+147
2006 Teixeira WAR 3.2 .282/.371/.514 wRC+ 121
TOTAL 2002 +1.7 (subtract half from Lohse)
TOTAL 2003 +4.6
TOTAL 2004 -1 (starts to get speculative as we'd have had to have had someone closing Guardado .2 Hawkins 1.2 Crain becomes the closer we envisioned when we drafted him). AJ stays instead of Blanco/Mauer
TOTAL 2005 -1.5 (again we'd have had someone closing for us) Crain effective despite terrifying peripherals, Guardado .2 Hawkins .8
TOTAL 2006 -12.9
TOTAL 2007 -6.6
TOTAL 2008 -9.1
TOTAL 2009 -9.7
TOTAL 2010 -11
If the Twins drafted Mark Prior:
Retro-GMing:
2002: Jones lf Guzman ss Koskie 3b Ortiz dh Hunter cf Mientkiewcz 1b Kielty/Mohr rf Pierzynski c Rivas 2b
Radke, Milton, Reed, Prior, Lohse/Mays CL: Guardado
2003: Stewart lf Rivas 2b Mientkiewciz 1b LeCroy dh Hunter cf Koskie 3b Jones rf Pierzynski c Guzman ss
Prior, Radke, Reed, Lohse, Mays/Santana CL: Guardado
2004: Stewart lf Jones rf Koskie 3b Morneau 1b Hunter cf LeCroy dh Pieryznski c Guzman ss Rivas 2b
Prior, Santana, Radke, Silva, Lohse CL: Guardado/Hawkins/Crain
2005: Stewart lf Bartlett ss Hunter cf Morneau 1b Cuddyer 3b LeCroy dh Pierzynski c Jones rf Punto 2b
Prior, Santana, Radke, Silva, Lohse CL: Guardado/Hawkins/Crain
2006: Castillo 2b, Punto 3b, Cuddyer rf Morneau 1b Hunter cf Pierzynski c White dh Tyner lf Bartlett ss
Santana, Radke, Silva, Lohse, Baker CL: Who knows? Crain?
2007-2010 would have obviously been terrible without Mauer and Nathan (also Liriano in 2010)
Silver lineing Ramos trade unlikely
Prior career 2.31 postseason ERA
Side note: Gardy would not have taxed Prior so hard so it's possible that Prior doesn't flame out. Then again it's quite possible that he does and we get less usage out of him. Also I am terrified that Gardy would use Prior out of the bullpen in 2002, meaning we'd have Johan and Prior as mop up men. Also quite likely Prior would have toiled away in AA and not been called up until 2004.
If the Twins drafted Mark Teixeira:
2003: Stewart lf Guzman ss Teixeira 3b LeCroy dh Hunter cf Mientkiewciz 1b Jones rf Pierzynski c Rivas 2b
Radke, Reed, Lohse, Rogers, Mays/Santana CL: Guardado
-option of trading Koskie or Doug to fill holes
2004: Stewart lf Jones rf Teixeira 3b Morneau 1b Hunter cf LeCroy dh Pierzynski c Guzman ss Rivas 2b
Santana, Radke, Silva, Lohse CL: Guardado/Hawkins/Crain
2005: Stewart lf Bartlett ss Teixeira 3b Morneau 1b Hunter cf Cuddyer rf LeCroy dh Pierzynski c Punto 2b
Santana, Radke, Silva, Lohse, 5th CL: Guardado/Hawkins/Crain
2006: Castillo 2b, Tyner lf Teixeira 3b Cuddyer rf Morneau 1b Hunter cf White lf Pierzynski c Bartlett ss
Santana, Radke, Silva, Lohse, Baker CL : Who knows? Crain?
TOTAL 2002 wash
TOTAL 2003 -3 if trade Koskie -1.7 if trade Mientkiewicz
TOTAL 2004 -1.4 if trade Koskie .3 if trade Mientkiewicz
TOTAL 2005 -.2 if trade Koskie 1.6 if trade Mientkiewicz
TOTAL 2006 -9.3 if trade Koskie -9.3 if trade Mientkiewicz
Teixeira would have had to stick at third base if we traded Koskie.
Predictions: 2002 If Prior starts that means Joe Mays doesn't. Mays won the only game against Anaheim so we likely still lose series 4-1. Better guess is Prior isn't even on the roster, toiling away at AA or AAA. Same results.
-Teixeira does not play. Wash.
2003: Terry is excited at not having to sign Kenny Rogers when Milton goes down in spring training. The season is a success because of that. Santana injured himself in Game 1 of ALDS but would likely have been able to make next start. Prior and Santana give Twins 2-0 lead, Santana/Prior closes out Game 5. Run into Boston team that was loaded offensively. Would have been a great series but gut is that Boston would have won in 6 or 7. Pedro would have tossed Wayne Hattaway to the ground and we'd all hate Pedro. Or would Corey Koskie have become the Aaron Boone of the Twins?
-Teixeira is called up mid-season when Ryan trades either Koskie or Doug. If Teixeira plays first we have a pretty potent lineup but it's not enough to beat Yankees. If Ryan trades Koskie, could it have been to the Yankees??? Reds didn't get anything of note for Boone. Who knows what would have happened but I'd have been pissed at trading with the Yankees again, especially with us in the middle of a pennant race. Hopefully we traded Doug and kept Teixeira at third.
2004: Twins barely edge out Chicago/Cleveland- get swept by Yankees
-Teixeira is enough to help Twins make playoffs. If playing first base, Morneau moves to DH. Twins and Yankees go 5. Anything can happen. A.J. Strikes out and runs to first, the aura of A.J. Is enough to keep Koskie's double in play. A.J. Somehow motors around to score game winning run. Nathan doesn't blow save. Twins go up 2-0.
2005: Twins do not come close to .500- let the rebuilding begin
-Teixeira shining light on a horrible team
2006: Depending on who was signed during FA (and we saw how White and Batista turned out) this would have been an awful team. Twins started 25-33 in real life and it would have just been a downward spiral from there. Likely would not have traded for Castillo before season. Scott Tyler and “what's his name” play key roles for team.
-Punto never becomes a Piranha as he has no place to play.... unless Gardy decides he'd rather DH Morneau. Then Tyner never becomes a piranha. Team is still awful without a key offensive contributor, half season ace, and closer.
2007: more awfulness- Santana and Hunter get traded during the season
-Teixeira is traded. Who knows who Ryan would have targeted from Atlanta. My gut (based on nothing but my own contempt for Ryan) is that we acquire Francouer, Salty, and Joey Devine.
2008: way to far out in the future and much depends on who we ended up with at catcher and closer
2009: same
2010: same
In conclusion, the Twins would have been slightly better in 2002, quite a bit better in 2003, and similar in 2004 depending on who we settled on at closer. From 2005 through 2010 we are much, much worse had they selected Prior instead of Mauer.
-Teixeira, no change in 2002, 2003 depends if we trade Koskie or Mientkewicz. If Koskie the same, if Doug better. 2004 would have been helpful depending on closer situation. 2005 would have been wasting his talent. 2006 would have been awful without Liriano, Nathan, Mauer.
2007 trade Teixeira for prospects. Rinse, wash, repeat.
In retrospect, it is obvious the Twins made the correct choice to select Mauer in the 2001 MLB draft. A different choice would have given the Twins a marginally better chance to win in 2002-2004 but post-2004 would have been disastrous. Kudos to Mr. Ryan for making the correct choice!

If you're a Minnesota Twins fan, you're probably already well aware of the allegations that independent photographer Betsy Bissen went public via Twitter a couple days ago with her #MeToo experience involving Twins star Miguel Sano. I won't go into all the details but you can easily find them with a quick browser search.
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/metoo-300x169.jpg
 
In a nutshell, Betsy's account is that, following an autograph session at a memorabilia store in 2015, Sano forcibly attempted to pull her into a restroom. The struggle, from which she ultimately extricated herself, lasted several terrifying minutes.
 
Over the past few weeks and months, we've seen victim after victim of male abuse of power/position come to light, most predominantly in the Hollywood, political and corporate environments. However, to my limited knowledge, this is perhaps the first allegation against a major league professional athlete, at least since the #MeToo movement came to prominence.
 
Given the historically misogynistic world of professional sports, the only surprising thing is that it took this long for experiences such as Betsy's to become public. Her allegation may or may not have been the first involving a MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL player, but I think we can be pretty certain it won't be the last.
 
MLB is beginning an investigation into the allegations regarding Sano, as is their responsibility and duty, apparently, under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement with the MLB Players Association. It is proper, I know, for those who know neither Sano nor Bissen personally, to decide they want to hold off on judgement until MLB does it's investigation thing.
 
Most of us who know Betsy at all (I consider myself her friend, though we are not what either of us, I'm sure, would consider to be close friends) are not generally feeling compelled to wait out an investigation before expressing our unequivocal support for her.
 
In fact, since she went public, she has received what would at least be considered public corroborative support from various parties who have, in the past, been at least somewhat familiar with Mr. Sano's treatment of women in manners not inconsistent with what Betsy described.
 
One person, Mike Holmdahl, recounted via Twitter that he had observed Sano making a female usher in Chattanooga uncomfortable during Sano's playing days with the Lookouts earlier in the same season that the event involving Bissen took place. That person was told by a senior usher there that they were so aware of Sano's activities with regard to female ushers that they had made an effort to avoid posting females near the home dugout. (You can find Holmdahl's full recounting as part of Brandon Warne's excellent piece at Zone Coverage.)
 
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports wrote that he had been told by, "five people, including teammates, ex-teammates and confidants, with whom he has spent time," that they characterized Sano as someone who, "saw the pursuit of women as sport," One of them called Sano "a ticking time bomb."
 
Jeff Goldklang, a member of the ownership group that currently owns the St. Paul Saints (for whom Bissen does some photography work) and previously owned the Twins' class high-A Ft. Myers Miracle related via Twitter that, "I've seen enough of both people to have absolutely no doubts in this story's veracity. I've personally seen Sano act inappropriately towards a woman- while in uniform, no less."
 
In fact, given these statements of at least partial corroboration, it does lead one to wonder what the Twins' front office knew about Sano's issues with women and when they knew it. But that's a question for another day and, if the MLB and the media do their jobs, we'll possibly get some answers some day.
 
All of this is just by way of saying that it would appear that Betsy Bissen is worthy of the support that her friends and many others are giving her.
 
But I'm not writing this to say I support her. She deserves more than that.
 
I'm writing to say, "Thank you," to Betsy for having the courage to speak out, knowing that the result would not be 100% supportive - that there would be a significant - and very vocal - segment of the population of Twins Territory who would demonize her for speaking out (conveniently hiding behind anonymous social media pseudonyms in most cases, of course}.
 
I will admit that Betsy's public allegations made me uncomfortable, just as the whole #MeToo movement has made me uncomfortable. But you know what? It's SUPPOSED to make me uncomfortable.
 
It's supposed to make me take stock of my own views and treatment of women - past, present and, in particular, future. And it has done just that.
 
I'm a 61 year old man. And while I certainly have never behaved toward any woman the way that Betsy related that Sano behaved toward her, I'm absolutely certain my words and actions toward women at various points in my life would not stand up to the spotlight that #MeToo is shining on us today.
 
I'm not naive enough to think #MeToo and people like Betsy Bissen are going to quickly and dramatically change the way we view and treat women in our society, especially, perhaps, in an era where our country has elected an openly misogynist President, sending a signal to a considerable segment of our population that it's OK to behave similarly toward our wives, girlfriends, sisters, daughters and granddaughters.
 
In fact, I doubt we'll see the kind of change that is needed take hold fully during my lifetime.
 
But, thanks to people like Betsy and others possessing similar courage, I have hope that my two grandsons (ages 2 and 4) will grow up in a world where they don't even question whether it's appropriate to treat girls and women with respect and, frankly, just common decency.
 
More importantly yet, I have hope that my not-quite-yet born granddaughter will grow up in such a world.
 
I have hope that she will grow up knowing that, if she aspires to be a sports photographer (or an actress or a political aide or a corporate executive), she shouldn't have to accept that being subject to what Betsy Bissen went through (or much worse) is considered just the price of admission into her chosen profession or avocation.
 
So, on behalf of my granddaughter and myself, let me just say it.
 
Thank you, Betsy.

The MLB meetings are officially over and many more questions remain than have been answered for most organizations. While the lack of activity, especially among the top player categories, has been surprising, there are some tentative conclusions that can be drawn about Falvine and their impact on the Twins. We recognize the jury is still out until the dust settles, but let's stop for a moment to look at the state of the Twins as of now, at least.
 
There has been much talk about the opening of the Twins' window for contention. Last year, coming off a 103 loss season, there was little chatter on these pages about the Twins emerging as contenders. Essentially, the Falvines were given a pass on their lack of roster additions a year ago because of the improbability of making a great leap forward in 2017.
 
Well lo and behold, a miracle occurred, the Twins won 26 more games, made the playoffs and Molitor was MOY. No doubt Falvine was as surprised as the rest of us, even at the trade deadline when they sold off rather than added. While they were subject to much criticism at the time, their moves were generally looked at as positive in adding longer term depth to a very shaky pitching staff.
 
Now there is much talk on TD about how close the Twins really are to contention, not just for a wild card berth again but for a real strong run deep into the post season. Should the Twins bide their time, see how sustainable their 2017 season was, and make bolder moves next offseason or even 2012 or should they go all in now?
 
This is really a chicken and egg question. If managment does little more than they've done to date, they are basically treading water for 2018, hoping on a wing and prayer that the young hitting core continues to improve, the few veterans at least match 2017 results, and a fair number of one year vets or rookies surprise and become larger contributors to a winning team. But isn't it just as likely some backsliding will occur(as it did in 2016 vs. 2015) if certain holes aren't filled?
 
The simple fact is that it is up to the boy wonders to make sure the window not only stays open but widens. This is what Epstein and company did as the core of position players was rounding into shape in 2014, resulting in them taking major steps in free agency by signing FA's like Lester and Lackey to bolster a thin starting staff. It should be emphasized that the Cubs also opened the window wider by making so many astute trades to land the likes of Hendriks, Rizzo, Russell and Arrietta - without ransacking their farm system. Brilliant trading and drafting, combined with astute FA signings, catapulted the Cubs to a World Championsip in 2016.
 
Some on this board might dismiss this comparison to the Cubs as stretching the point, saying that the Cubs operate in a much bigger market than the Twins. When it comes to media dollars, this is true to a point but let us remember the Twins have greater attendance capabilities than the Cubs and an owner reportedly the richest in baseball. The big difference really in the two organizations is new Cubs' ownership committment to bringing a championship to Chicago and went right out to hire a front office and field manager to accomplish just that. Has anyone seen Twins' managment making similar pronouncements?
 
Everything we've heard from Twins' ownership indicates they wil;l support Falvine in their efforts and that money is not the overriding concern. There are some promising hints that this offseason might represent a departure in that the Twins FO is making a concerted play fort Yu Darvish, probably the top FA pitcher on the market. If, indeed, they accomplish such a signing it will be long-needed signal to Twin fans accustomed to a reactionary FO that things really are changing and that Falvine is pro active in actually sending a strong message to the existing roster that they are going to do whatever is necessary to bring a winner to the twin cities.
 
Not that the signing o Darvish alone would assure a widening of the window to the extent enough to compete with the Indians, Astros, Yankees, etc. in a playoff series. The signing of Rodney as closer is a step forward but by no means turns the bullpen into a position of strength. A shutdown 8th inning(or 9th) reliever is almost a must to jump to the next level. A real RH DH is critical to helping sustain and possibly improve the lineup. And most importantly, one more solid starter must be added to shore up a woeful back end of the rotation. Relying on Gibson and Mejia to be part of a playoff bound starting rotation is more in the category of a hope and prayer. With Mauer's contract coming off the books after 2018, this is the time to spend the dollars and take the risk of trading top minor leaguers to land one additional mid to top rotation starter.
 
So opening the window further is strictly on Falvey at this time. If they fail to add Darvish, all this talk about "crushing it" will be just words. Yes, they have done some clever things regarding roster managment but it's all window dressing for now. They must realize that the core who outperformed so remarkably in 2017 needs help - lots of it. If they don't act in the next few weeks(most major moves are normally made before the holidays) to fill these very real holes, then they will have Failvined in their responsibilities. They will have flushed it, not crushed it. There can be no excuses any more. The opportunity is there for the taking if they have the b...s to go for it.