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SwainZag

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Everything posted by SwainZag

  1. SwainZag
    He is still only 23 years old and has less than 800 career PA. After his improved last couple months, I'm looking forward to see what he can with a full healthy season with regular AB's.
  2. SwainZag
    From the sounds of it, it's obvious the list you are looking at uses major league time as a huge advantage in it's rankings. Most of the Twins top young players aren't there yet, hence why they are lower on this list. I don't really see how it has any weight with how good the Twins system is if the guys have reached the majors or not.
  3. SwainZag
    What kind of value does Arcia have right now? Right now he plays below average defense and strikes out 25% of the time. The power potential is there, but I highly doubt he brings back anything more than a bottom of the rotation type guy.....which we seem to have a plethora of.
  4. SwainZag
    Rasmus is also 28 while Hicks is 24. You are right, Rasmus had + dWAR is 2009, 2012 and 2013. This season Rasmus played 719.1 innings of defense to get to his -0.5. Hicks played in 528 defensive innings to get his -0.2, so not even close to double. Rasmus also made 14 times what Hicks did this year. Hicks also has less than 500 AB of major league experience. I know I am in the minority but I STILL think Hicks could be AT LEAST an average ML OFer. I still think letting him start 2013 as the starter at age 23 with no AAA experience was bad for his development. He has been treated like a yo-yo ever since then. MLB-AAA-MLB-AAA-MLB-DL-AA-AAA-MLB. That's in a 2 year span. I'm not saying anoint him as an everyday starter, but I'm very anti-kick him the curb.
  5. SwainZag
    Pelfrey is under contract and relatively has zero value in the trade market. Thus trading him is probably impossible at this point. There is no harm in bringing him into camp and attempt to use him as a reliever. If he looks good, cool, throw him in the pen and he could be a trade deadline piece. If he struggles or is simply beat out, then DFA/waive him. Makes no sense to cut bait now.
  6. SwainZag
    Back to the contrary, with that average defense you mentioned in the first paragraph how much would the LOB% go down? They would seemingly go hand in hand in my opinion.
  7. SwainZag
    2014 Hicks : .215/.341/.274/.615 -0.2 dWAR Age 24, $508K, 2 pre-arb years left, 2 years arb left 2014 Revere : .306/.325/.361/.686 -1.8 dWAR Age 26, $1,95M salary, 1 year arb elig left. 2014 Rasmus: .225/.287/.448/.735 -0.5 dWAR Age 28, $7M salary, 2015 FA 2014 Ethier: .249/.322/.370/.691 -0.9 dWAR Age 32, $15.5M, $18M in 2015, $18M in 2016, $17.5M in 2017, $17.5M vesting option with $2.5M buyout in 2018. Hicks was much better after the break as well. Just some comparisons from players I have seen on this thread when it comes to OF.
  8. SwainZag
    I will agree with that as long as you say....proves success in the short term. It could turn into long term success or it could very well prove to be something that bit them in the ass in the long term.
  9. SwainZag
    There's no sour grapes at all. Predicting anything in the future isn't relevant I guess though. For I all know the Royals could go on to win the next 5 World Series titles or they could go on to pick Top 5 for the next 5. If their intention was to make the playoffs regardless of the result this year and in the future, they sure they succeeded in that nature. Royals fans are happy.
  10. SwainZag
    I really don't see the comparison though. This is about what Shields added to the team and what they lost in the trade, not when the Twins were swept in a playoff series. Sure you can compare the seasons in retrospect, but judging the overall franchises and what position they are in as a whole is completely different IMO.
  11. SwainZag
    But the Twins had more than a 1 year run! The Twins made the playoffs 6 times in 9 years! While the Royals could very well go on a run like this, it still stands that they traded a very highly touted prospect for a 2 year rental, who is all but gone after this year. Comparing the Twins run in the 2000's with KC's one playoff appearance is not a very good comparison.
  12. SwainZag
    Shields in 2014: 34 starts. 227IP, 3.21 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 3.59 FIP, 7.1 K/9 Odorizzi in 2014: 31 starts. 168IP, 4.13 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 3.75 FIP, 9.3 K/9 Obviously Shelds is more of a workhorse, but how much of a downgrade are they really and consider that Odorizzi was a rookie and 24 years old. It seems people want to write off Myers already, a year removed from winning the ROY. He did have an injury plauged down year, but I certainly wouldn't write him off yet. The kid is only 23 years old. Mike Montgomery was also part of that trade, and at age 25, and a former Top 25 prospect, might have finally figured it out having a fine season in AAA. If the Royals lose in this 1-game playoff and lose Shields in the off-season, what mission was accomplished? They still will have a fine 29 year old set-up man in Davis and a short lived playoff experience.
  13. SwainZag
    If you like the WAR stat.....Hughes's season this year will go down as a Top 5 pitching season in the last 30 years for the Twins. The top 3 of course being Johan and the 4th being Viola's 1988 season. Hughes's ERA being almost a full run over his FIP is mind boggling and shows just how terrible his defense has been behind him. Great season Hughesie.
  14. SwainZag
    Based on the rest of the roster I would rather see Schafer over Parmalee. But then again I always like seeing speed on the bench.
  15. SwainZag
    I don't really see the landing place being the problem it's the money AND years offered that really counts. I think teams with huge payrolls...see....NY, LA, BOS, etc. are able to offer a guy in his 30's a 7 year 150M+ contract and worry a lot less about the future than a team like the Twins who is ponying up 20-25% of their payroll to an arm for the better part of the next decade.
  16. SwainZag
    I really hope we see Pinto starting at Catcher today. Please Gardy?
  17. SwainZag
    I don't see why people view playing a Hicks/Arcia platoon is giving up on either of them. Arcia has stuggled mightily with left handed pitching, much like a lot of powerful left handed hitters. On the flip side Hicks has struggled even more hitting right handed pitching. If a platoon split can give you better results why not? You still have one one or the either on the bench to pinch hit.
  18. SwainZag
    I really hope this means we will get to see him catch more than once a week for the month. Of all the opinions how he can't catch are out there, he only caught 18 games for the Twins this season. No reason not to give him some reps, we all know he can hit.
  19. SwainZag
    I wouldn't look at promoting Bernier as investing in the future but more as....he has played well enough to earn a promotion, he is 34, the Twins are going nowhere and more of a nice thing to do for a guy who is probably getting near the end of his career. I'm going to guess he isn't going to see the field much this month, really no harm promoting him and letting him live the life for a few weeks. At least how I see it. It would be different if they promoted him and played him over a younger player with a real future with the team.
  20. SwainZag
    I don't see the urgency to trade him right now. While yes Escobar is younger and has position flexibility, this is the first year he has hit in the Major Leagues After 3 years Plouffe finally getting the hang and playing above average defense while his bat is near league average. There's also the fact no one knows that the future holds for Sano either. I think he would be worth more to the Twins as he would in most trade situations. If jokin's estimate is right...which I think it looks like a solid prediction....if you could get Plouffe for 12-15M for the next 3 years and puts up his current production it's not a bad piece to have. If In fact Sano sticks at 3B and is ready in 2 years, he should be just as tradeable as he is now.
  21. SwainZag
    Which would be a better dilemma to have in 2-3 years......having too much money tied up in a 34-36 year old SP to block extensions to some of the up and comers, or tie up money in extensions and unable to sign an ace pitcher/top FA at the time?
  22. SwainZag
    This was my fault and I apologize to mike for it. Won't happen again.
  23. SwainZag
    I have nothing to compare to then. How do I compare a guy who only had 50 AB in one season? Most players who have less than 3 years in the majors are generally role players who have little statistics to compare anyways. If you want to say that most players who get a shot at the big leagues have less than a 3 year career then OK, but I think that's a different study. Your statement was: "but we forget that many/most rookies don't actually get better, they are who they will become" and I'm using major leaguers who have a career do generally show that they generally do in fact get better.
  24. SwainZag
    But that doesn't mean guys didn't improve. How about in year 3 or year 4? 2014 Minnesota Twins hitters who have played in 3 or more seasons: Susuki rookie year: .249/.327/.408 best year (8th) : .292/.354/.381 career: .257/.314/.376 Mauer rookie year: .294/.372/.411 best year (5th): .365/.444/.587 career: .319/.401/.462 Dozier rookie year: .234/.271/332 best year (3rd): .236/.342/.417 career: .239/.314/.396 Plouffe rookie year: .238/.305/.392 best year(2nd): .235/.301.455 career: .243/.304/.412 Willingham rookie yr: .277/.356/.496 best year(7th): .260/.366/.524 career: .253/.359/.467 Morales rookie year: .234/.293/.371 best year(4th): .306/.355/.569 career: .274/.326/.464 Kubel rookie year: .241/.279/.386 best year(4th): .300/.369/.539 career: .262/.330/.448 Bartlett rookie year: .241/.316/.335 best year(5th): .320/.389/.490 career: .270/.336/.366 Only Willingham, Plouffe and Susuki had rookie years which were even close to their overall career numbers, and most players had their best years between their 3rd and 5th seasons. Yes, another SSS I know.
  25. SwainZag
    It wouldn't even just be in Year 2 though, they could have a down sophomore season and break out in year 3 or 4. If I had time I would gladly do a study, but unfortunately I don't. I'm working on something though.
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