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SwainZag

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Everything posted by SwainZag

  1. SwainZag
    You could say this about any prospect though, not just look back at the ones who haven't progressed forward.
  2. SwainZag
    I say no, no, no to Shields. He turns 33 in the off season. He will hit 200 innings for the 8th straight year, that's a lot of strain on an arm. His K/9 are the lowest they have been in 6 years. His FIP is right around career norms at 3.80. Someone will overpay him ace money on a 4-5 year deal, probably with the last being an option and pay him well into 37-38 year old season. Hughes has been a much better pitcher than him this season and it's just my guess Shields gets 13-15M per season. These are the type of FA's that IMO the Twins need to stay away from
  3. SwainZag
    Good response. Obviously the guys you listed you would be fine with seeing back, will be back. You have to remember that Thielbar and Pressley both have under 100 IP under their belt. I understand the frustration with Duensing. While he hasn't been bad, his BB/9 is up and K/9 is down and is 31. I would not be surprised if the Twins didn't offer him arb. Outside of a bad April, Burton has been very solid, but turning 34 next year and that team option of $3.4M, he is probably gone. Fien statistically has been the best reliever on the team outside of Perkins for 2 straight seasons now. At his cost, I'm not sure what there isn't to like about him. Swarzak is your usual long man who won't see very many critical innings. Overall the bullpen has actually been fairly solid. I would be all for a group led by Perkins, Fien, Pressley, Thielbar and maybe Swazak with letting Burton and Duensing walk.
  4. SwainZag
    Not directed at me but.....as much as I would like it if they brought in a consensus #1-2 starter, I don't see it happening. It would more than likely take a vast over payment of a free agent on the wrong side of 30. Even with the money that should be freed up, I would take the other side of that.
  5. SwainZag
    While I agree with you on pitchers should force their way into the rotation......but look at May and Meyer this season. Let's say Nolasco gets healthy......Hughes, Gibson and Nolasco are pretty much locks to start the season in the rotation next year. If you bring in a high priced free agent, who is going to get squeezed out? Of course injuries happen, but why over pay for a starter now? Don't you run with a combo of May, Meyer and Millone for those last 2 slots? Find out if May and/or Meyer can be a usable ML option? Will a high priced 30+ year old FA starter really push the Twins over the edge next season?
  6. SwainZag
    The eye test and advanced fielding shows that Arcia and Plouffe have improved a lot this year. Take it for what it's worth but in terms of advanced fielding, Plouffe is a Top 5 defender in the league, a huge improvement over the last 2 years.
  7. SwainZag
    Hasn't Vargas only played 2 or 3 games in the field at most? Seems like an awfully high number for less than 50 innings in the field.
  8. SwainZag
    As much as I would love to see the Twins add a front line "ace" next season, I think the chances are probably very slim. They won't pay the kind of money that Leseter or Scherzer will get and next best option is soon to be 33 year old Shields.....who IMO doesn't deserve ace money. You would have to think that the starting rotation for next year is going to be some sort of combination of..... Hughes Gibson Nolasco Meyer May Millone Pelfrey any big splashes in FA just block the young guys, unless someone like Nolasco is traded, which at this point would be selling very low.
  9. SwainZag
    Hughes has been much better than average. Every stat outside of ERA shows that and it ties directly in with the defense. Current ERA 3.65, FiP 2.62, xFiP 3.18. The FIP and XFIP would rank him 5th and 11th in the AL, not quite just average. As for Gibson, while he didn't light the world on fire I think people have to remember he had a total of 10 career starts before this year. His K/9 is up, BB/9 is down and his crazy unlucky BABIP of 2013 is way down. An ERA of 4.31 isn't bad and with better defense it would look better as well. Even as bad as Nolasco has been his BABIP of .360 is ever higher than Gibson's .350 of last year which was very documented as unlucky. Combine that with the fact that who knows how long he was pitching injured and I think there is a much better chance his numbers bounce back to career norms than not. Those 3 will be in the rotation next year, and while they do lack and an "ace" Hughes has pitched like a very very good 2 and probably a fringe #1 starter for much of the season.
  10. SwainZag
    Hughes, Gibson and Nolasco will all be around next season. You have your top prospects in May and Meyer as well. Not to mention Pelfrey and Millone. Relievers under contract: Perkins, Fien, Thielbar, Pressley, Swarzak, Tonkin and Duesing is arb eligible. Which 75% do you want gone?
  11. SwainZag
    The same Wilkin Ramirez who is older than Schafer and in AAA with little power and striking out 25% of the time? I don't mind Shafer actually. I like the speed on the basepathes, his defense is better than Parmalee's and Parmalee isn't exactly hitting the cover off the ball lately....
  12. SwainZag
    I would much rather see a 1 rental rental in Victorino if there wasn't a major trade chip at his salary of $13M than get locked into 5 years of Melky at $10M+. With the contract Eithier has, I really see no chance of him coming here in a trade. I don't see Texas picking up Rios's option, so he probably will be a FA.
  13. SwainZag
    You would trade Hicks for Lee right now? A 36 year old, who is injured and making $25M next year and a vesting option of $27.5M in 2016...with a $12.5M buyout. Cliff has been a great pitcher in his career, but personally I want nothing to do with a 36+ year old arm making 25M+ for 2 seasons. Give me the talented yet struggling OF 24 year old, especially considering the state of this team right now.
  14. SwainZag
    I understand you are all for the now, but come on. Melky isn't going to get any better. While $10M might be worth it next year, how's it looking when he turns 34 and 35 in 4 and 5 years down the road? He is an average AT BEST fielder right now, it's only going to get worse with age. 6 more years? IMO this team will be competitive in 2016 and beyond. That means after the cluster**** that was 2011, the rebuild in this situation would take 4 years, 2012 to 2015 to put together a competitive team. That's not bad. If you are talking about the Lee rumors in 2010 for Lee, then OK. It would have taken more than Hicks, who was a Top 20 prospect at the time, and it would be a half year rental. We would likely be looking at the same team right now without Hicks if they somehow pulled a trade like that.
  15. SwainZag
    Yeah, according to Ken Rosenthal here: "Heavily Back Loaded" https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/502846959900983296
  16. SwainZag
    Rumors on the contract will pay him a pro-rated salary this year, 500K or so, and is heavily back loaded ending in 2020 the year he will turn 33. So basically a 6-year deal worth $72M. With it being heavily loaded, you could assume that as much as $35M would be coming in the last 2 seasons. Imagine trying to move that contract if he flops or even is just an average major league player.
  17. SwainZag
    How many teams are just filled with young guys with huge upside? I'll give you answer: Not a one. Having 3 players at age 23 getting regular AB's and starting everyday isn't enough right now? Throw in Escobar who is 25 and Hicks who very well could be starting by the end the season and that's 5 of 9 starters 25 and younger.
  18. SwainZag
    Melky coming off successful season, in which he made $8M btw, will be the cream of the crop for your corner OF being FA's next season. He turned 30 earlier this month. Are the Twins going to offer him a 4-5 year contract worth upwards of $10M a season to bring him in? I would be all for taking a seriously look at Tomas, but he is a guy with no ML experience and after what we saw the Sox dish out for a Cuban OF today, what's his price tag going to be? Who do you want to trade? Buxton? Sano? I understand that people want to win, but the lack of patience and the "what have you done for me lately" attitude is just mind boggling to me. BTW, you do know what Cliff Lee's contract has been over the last 4 years or so right? While his career could be over very soon, Hick's place as a starter might not even be here yet. Going forward who do you want, 36 year old Cliff Lee or 25 year old Aaron Hicks?
  19. SwainZag
    I'll ask again, who are you buying? Who are you bringing in? Realistic players who they could bring in. We have seen the list that should be available after the season.
  20. SwainZag
    Who are you buying? What realistic 1-2 year LF are you going to buy that's going to put up much better numbers than Parmalee/Hicks in LF? There will be no long term game changers in free agency this year, and after the outside chance of taking a shot at Tomas, who are they going to bring in? With Buxton, Arcia, Rosario and Hicks all in the minors right now it's not reasonable to overpay an OF like Melky on a 4-5 year deal.
  21. SwainZag
    I've stated it before but I'll say it again, using the "average" age of the team is very misleading, misguided and really doesn't tell you anything about the future. Position Players over 30: Morlaes 31: Gone - Traded Willingham 35: Gone - Traded Fuld 32: Gone - Traded Colabello 30: Gone - DFA'ed Kubel 32: Gone - Released Bartlett 34: Gone - Retired Mauer 31 - Under Contract Susuki 30 - Under Contract Pitchers Over 30: Correia 33: Gone - Traded Guerrier 35: Gone - Released Pelfrey 30: Hurt entire season Deduno 30: Likely gone at end of the year Pino 30: Likely gone at end of the year Burton 33: Likely gone at end of the year Nolasco 31: Under Contract Perkins 31: Under Contract Fien 30: Under Contract Duensing 31: Arb eligible, could be gone. Out of all the guys who make the average age on the team go way up, 5 under are under contract next season, 9 of them are gone already off the roster and 3 others probably won't be here next season. It's not like this is a team full of veterans under long term contract.
  22. SwainZag
    Out of the whole thread I think this is the most likely response. Parm in LF, Santana in CF, Arcia in RF with Schaefer as your 4th and if Hicks continue to play well in AAA as a possible bench bat or starting CF. If and when Buxton is ready you can slide Hicks to LF and Parm to the bench. There are too many suggestions of just sliding random guys to the OF like there's no learning curve. IE Mauer, Plouffe, Sano, Pinto, etc.
  23. SwainZag
    Regardless if he didn't hit many HR, in his last season for the Twins he was still average 1 HR per 20 AB, which comes out to 30 HR per full season. He was always often injured while in a Twins uniform, it's too bad they didn't try and stick with him. Either way, I'm hoping that Arcia and Vargas get to start for the rest of the season and see what kind of numbers they can put up with regular at bats.
  24. SwainZag
    Cuddy chose to start his rehab this past time in Rookie ball. I got the chance to see him play in my hometown twice a few weeks ago with the 18-22 year old kids. He put on a show getting 5 hits in back to back games. It was published in the paper as well that he was going to ride the bus with the team 4 hours north to their next stop as well. He mentioned he wanted to go down that low to be a positive influence on the young guys. Doesn't surprise me one bit, Cuddy was always a class act.
  25. SwainZag
    .328/.413/.451 9 HR, 85 RBI .324/.404/.476 11 HR, 47 RBI Examine the 2 lines. Yes, the 2nd one had 160 less PA. One of them is 2008 when he was a "great" player in his 1st 5 years and the 2nd is last year when he is in his "decline." I would rather think that Joe started this year in a slump, got hurt and is just now coming out of it than think the slow start is just simple decline.
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