70charger

The best explanation for the inability of projection models to reflect reality in anything but the aggregate comes from an analogy to financial modeling, and the best explanation for the inability of financial modeling comes in Nassim Taleb's work, which I'd recommend even if you aren't interested in finance because of how universally applicable this kind of thinking is. I'm partial to "Fooled by Randomness" because the book blew my hair back when I first read it, but "The Black Swan" is quite good too. Basically, one of the core tenets of the arguments made is that, while a bell curve distribution may exist, the "tails," or the events that are statistically so improbable as to be virtually impossible are not only not impossible, but if they are treated as such, the models will not only fail but they will fail catastrophically, with cascading effects everywhere else. They're colloquially called the "fat tails" of the bell curve. We got an object lesson in the fat tails of the bell curve when mortgage backed securities, which were so "safe" as to be considered statistically virtually riskless, blew up and took down the market. Baseball reveals its fat tails again and again (remember the old saying "that's why they play the games"?), and as one poster previously mentioned, I would consider the Twins' 1991 season to be a resident of pretty darn fat part of a fat tail of a bell curve. TL;DR, the models may be able to accurately tell you what will happen in the aggregate, but there will be outliers each and every year that make you stand back, scratch your head, and ask "what the actual ****?"

The train from MOA to Target Field should be given about a 50 minute window. Source: I live by the Target Field station and the airport generally takes about 40.

This is one of the real fun parts about pretty much any sport. I mean, I love the superstar-from-day-one Buxton types as much as anyone, especially if they're on my team. But there's something gratifying to those of us who aren't genetic freaks in seeing people succeed by working hard and doing things the right way. Best of luck to both of them going forward.

Parmelee's shot was 411 feet. That was a Nelson Cruz-like monster.

Ever spoken extemporaneously in front of multiple people who will quote you in the national press? (Didn't think so.) If you had, I doubt you'd be so worried about a mild vocabulary mistake every so often. But by all means, let's crucify the guy for something ridiculous. Where's my torch and pitchfork?

On the other hand, I could say that I liked Portland's baseball team before they were cool. #hipster #streetcred #hashtagsdontactuallyworkonTwinsDaily

Just as I don't follow or care about the Lakers and the Stars, I wouldn't follow the Portland Pretentious Morons (I can only assume that's what they'd name their team). Luckily, having lived in Dayton for a time as a child, I have a backup in the Reds.

There's no possible way the 1st Amendment could apply to these circumstances.

This is pretty much where I'm at too, and I'm usually pretty patient as well. I feel pretty bad for Escobar, because if he makes that catch, we're in extras. He knows it too, I'm sure. But by being stuck in left field with no experience, he was set up to fail. Who knows how Guerrier fits into this team and how it will set the team up to fail in a future game?

I'm going, although my tickets are in the upper deck. I can't justify four figures per ticket, but I figure this is at least a once-in-a-generation kind of thing. I'm also curious about the secondary market, since I had to buy an entire ticket strip. If I can piece them out and offset much of the cost, I'd call it a win. The main event is really the attraction for me.

Stop with the sniping. Of course nobody knows what he's going to be. That's why they're trying him at shortstop atfreaking A Ball! You both agree that nobody knows anything, so quit it.

I'm not constitutional scholar either. I think partially because I had Jim Chen as a teacher. (I looked you up; you were a U guy too...)

Speaking as another lawyer, you are absolutely right. Gonzales v. Raich says that if you grow pot in CO (CA, actually), from seeds that came from in-state, and use it in-state, you're engaging in interstate commerce. And in that, the Supreme Court is laughably, ridiculously, less-common-sense-than-a-two-year-old WRONG. And that about sums up Constitutional jurisprudence as it regards the commerce clause (and the fourteenth amendment) over the last century plus. It's only the law of the land if you simultaneously accept the premise that the Supreme Court could interpret the first amendment in such a way as to deprive us of our freedom of speech if they one day decide to warp the Constitution that way.

I just got word that I have a new nephew! Peter William. 6 lbs. 11 ozs. His dad's a Nats fan, but I'll get ol' Pete started on the right path.

Glad to see Escobar playing at shortstop. Florimon's production thus far is completely unacceptable. I would prefer to see Hicks playing center, as this is a singularly unathletic outfield, and Hicks needs playing time. But I understand that they may be trying to ride the hot bat. We'll see how long it lasts for Fuld.

So "Tuesday's" game was supposed to be tomorrow evening. If they have to push back "Thursday's" game which would be the early game tomorrow, what happens to "Tuesday's" game? Postponed? Or would they postpone the early one and play the later one?

But can't you see that marijuana is a gateway drug!? First the pot, then the cheeseburgers, then the supersized meals - it's the first step on a path to ruin! Won't somebody please think of the pitchers!

Thanks. I'm particularly interested since I have tickets. Wasn't really looking forward to sitting out in the rain tonight.

Where did you get this confirmation? I haven't seen anything on the Twins' site.

He played for the Dodgers; just because he has to play against them as a Twin doesn't mean he's not going to do all he can to beat them. I'll worry when he wears a Dodgers hat on the mound at a Twins game.

Alright, I admit it. I got a chuckle.

Just in case anyone needs some decoration for their bedroom wall: http://www.allposters.com/-sp/Jeff-Gray-Pitcher-for-the-Minnesota-Twins-Posters_i9484746_.htm?AID=96280778&ProductTarget=53105862943 Check out all of the framing options!

Sorry about Rope, Riverbrian. I'm a cat guy myself, and my wife hates them (but she knew the deal when we got married). I've had a pretty mean cat too before, but I think she was just impatient with her incompetent human servants. I hope Rope is doing well out in the barn. Sounds like it might be a temperamental fit.

With my mufflers, I couldn't hear my wife even if I wanted to.

I've got a radio delete plate! And a ...steering wheel.