Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jokin

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    11,852

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    8

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jokin

  1. jokin
    Question- Are these comments in bold more of an indictment of Stewart... or the Twins' developmental staff? His stock had fallen so low, his MLB promotion seemed like an afterthought at the time. Kiley McDaniel didn't even have him on his Twins top 30 prospect list published last May (deservedly so). Six years into his Twins tutelage, a #4 overall pick in 2013, probably the top athlete in that draft, as well, who admittedly never bought into the plan. This is a kid coming out of elite football- Where everything is planned out. It took until his 6th year in pro ball to "feel like [he] knew how to use the stuff that [he] had?" Really? Perhaps more goal-setting would help to motivate? Stewart's still a huge question mark, but hopefully, with all of the changes, better "plans" for Kohl and other top prospects are being implemented and adhered to. (Kohl made it sound like his first exposure to analytical technology and mechanical refinements didn't happen until 2018. Disturbing, if true. It would just seem like the guys that the Twins have made multi-million dollar up-front investments in would have a more comprehensive "plan" implemented from day one in order to ensure better [and faster] return on those investments.)
  2. jokin
    $3.5M is the going rate for an "opener"? Did Perez knowingly sign on to the Twins for such an ignominious role? His 1st time vs.2nd time stats don't even suggest he'd be successful as an opener. And the Twins don't have cheaper options in filling that role? Seems doubtful.
  3. jokin
    Actually, Perez's numbers- career and in 2018- first time through the order are horrible in 2018 and statistically insignificant from his second time through the order for his career- the results are not exactly inspiring or suggestive of the Twins "finding value" via even semi-rigorous statistical analysis. Soooo.... I guess the cost of Really Mediocre "lefty openers" has finally been calculated at $3.5M by our resident geniuses? The only way the opener role comes close to making sense is if an opposing team's batting order has 4-5 of the first 6 hitting left handed.
  4. jokin
    "Serious money." This common perception has had a lot of evidence-supported pushback. Buxton is in the situation he finds himself in largely based on what he has thus far accomplished (or not). Which begs the question... how much is a player worth during his arb years strictly based on promise versus actual performance? "Hurt feelings" aside, the fact remains, when/(if) Buck finally has the monster season (7+ fWAR), the big extension offer will come in, and in the process he stands to make back all of the money he "lost" during this first round of arb-eligibility.
  5. jokin
    I can think of more than one reason.... three reasons... in the case where the three veterans all go down via injury, suspension, traded away, inability to immediately bounce back (Pineda), etc... plus a couple more, in that, at least two youngsters are likely on a limited innings schedule. It's short-handed the Twins in the middle months before, forcing them to call upon some embarrassing options- in all-but-obvious pre-forfeiture games. Besides, how many different SPs have the Twins used in the last 2 seasons??? Probably around 25, right? Unpredictable things do happen. As much as I'm fully with you on getting these young arms their IPs, buying one (or two) veteran insurance policies on minor league deals is prudent, especially if the FO is making a legitimate run for a post-season berth.
  6. jokin
    So.... 6 "starters"??? Not enough 25-man roster space.
  7. jokin
    I dunno, take the bottom 6 names, a dart, a dartboard and a blindfold?
  8. jokin
    Bingo!
  9. jokin
    Berrios should be first. Not sure why it already isn't done. I'm guessing Gibson's agent is looking for Kyle's one big FA shot at the monster payday. AFAIK, Kyle hasn't exactly shown much public enthusiasm about willingness in sticking around. (Hope I'm wrong, but I can envision Falvine having already made the decision to place Gibson on the Eduardo-Escobar-First-To-Deal list if things go South early on in 2019).
  10. jokin
    Well done, Levi. My list would be very close to this. With the exception of me valuing higher the potential for the pitchers at the bottom of the list over some of the other names in the middle. For example, and especially speaking of trade value, the way people are publicly whispering/talking about Garver, it sounds like his career as a catcher is potentially over practically before it's begun- the apparently omni-present risk of Garver simply having limited potential asset value as just a bench bat should immediately move him to the 20-25 range, or lower. How many teams would be willing to sacrifice a roster spot and bring anything of value to the Twins in return if it's generally understood around the league that his catching days are severely in doubt? (I know I'm out on a lonely limb on this, but the numbers say Kohl Stewart actually showed enough of his Soft Contact%/GB%/IFFB%/GB-FB ratio [all better #s than Gibson] with his spinner stuff to make me put him near the #20 spot. Only Dallas Kuechel had a higher GB-FB ratio among all qualifying starters. The others ahead of Stewart have higher ceilings for sure, and it was only 36+ IP, but if/as/when the Twins transition to better gloves on the left side of the IF, his value- to the Twins- or a team with a stellar IF defense- as the ultimate P-2-C starter, could vault him into a potentially fairly reliable #4-5 SP).
  11. jokin
    Wow. Tough crowd.
  12. jokin
    Sustainability is in question.... Cave in 2018: BABIP .363 K%: 33% Steamer projects a huge regression for Cave (.702 OPS/.3 WAR), with Kepler maintaining his WAR (2.6). FWIW, Kepler's defense rated much higher than Cave's in 2018. Given the lopsided L/R hitting situation in the OF, it looks like the Twins might try Buxton becoming Cave's occasional part-time platoon partner, with Cave additionally spelling Kepler and Rosario on occasion. Didn't look up his minor league stats, but Cave was dreadful vs. LHP in 2018 (.598 OPS). It looks like the Yankees gave up on the idea of Tyler Austin playing significant innings in the OF after his 2015 AAA season. Right now, he looks like a man without a position, or even a roster spot. Unfortunate, if that's the way it works out, especially if Cron pulls another LoMo debacle.
  13. jokin
    Spot on. Credit goes to the Yankee FO and coaching staff to have faith in sticking with their trading decision for Hicks in the pressure-cooker NY environment- and to Hick's himself- to trust the Yankee staff to help him get his career closer to tracking his full potential- and overcoming his previous seeming indifference and lack of self-confidence. This trade had disaster written all over it for the Twins at the time of the transaction. It likely was one of the final nails in the coffin for Ryan's exit. The Twins organization can ill-afford to continue to seemingly mishandle huge talent-laden prospects and hope to stay competitive. If the "Win Now" Yankees can turn on the talent switches with BOTH their top prospects as well as buy-low trade acquisitions, there's no reason that a team with one of the longest developmental timeline schedules, as well as the seemingly-forever team-rebuild phases, better draft slots, etc. can't do at least as well. To be at their current state, 4-5 years into Buxton's and Sano's MLB careers, given their unlimited potential, is exemplary of an organization that is in serious need of re-evaluation of every aspect of their player analysis and development.
  14. jokin
    As I said above, Reason #2.
  15. jokin
    I am confident in saying that the conceptualization of the draft-RP-to-SP fiasco was on the list handed to the previous GM on his reasons-to-be-fired-list. (Probably Reason # 2. Hicks for JR Murphy was Reason # 1).
  16. jokin
    Concur. But there has been a lot of competition....
  17. jokin
    LoMo ≠ Cruz LoMo had a career year in 2017 amidst a very mediocre career. By comparison, some might be surprised to know: Nelson Cruz is the leader in HRs over he last 10 years with 338 dingers. Only Cabrera and Cano have more XBH over the last 10 years. Nelson Cruz has the highest wRC+ for all DH's over the last 10 years. Cruz is winding down in his career, as his numbers reflect, but he'd be light years better than a LoMo or Cron-type as the primary DH.
  18. jokin
    I think the manager add almost nothing mantra is debatable. Not as true as in the 20th Century. Proper implementation of baseball analytics, both via successful roster deployment and in-game strategies has helped many a shrewd manager gain an edge on the talent-laden "favorites". Quantifiably, the teams with the biggest payrolls presumably have the best talent, particularly starting pitching- but hot mid-market teams with good managers have regularly rained on their parades in terms of World Series titles. The Yankees have been to one, and won another one, WS in 15 years. The Dodgers have had the highest league payroll for at least a decade, yet only finally made a WS appearance last year, their first since what, the 80s? Because of how baseball is played, managers don't add a huge difference, like in football, but the difference is likely much more than "almost nothing."
  19. jokin
    While I like your post, ownership essentially signed the duo with one hand tied behind their backs by indefinitely forcing Molitor upon them. Admittedly, Falvine agreed to the arrangement, but it still remains true that they have been delayed by 3 years in putting their own personal imprimatur on this team by way of not having "their" guy in the dugout from day one. Regardless, if 2019's results are similar to 2018's, I don't know if these guys are slick enough to convince Pohlad to retain them going forward.
  20. jokin
    Mostly a great post, with the exception of my "edit." Sure, Molitor was dealt an impossible hand, but unfortuantely, he- demonstrably- had a hand in his own demise- mishandling of the pen, incredibly reckless base-running was never addressed, Garver ,and others, not sooner injected into more feature roles, etc. (FWIW- I didn't like losing Pressly either, but because of Molitor's mishandling of him, FalVine saved Pressly's career in shipping him out).
  21. jokin
    1) Molitor "blindsided"? That's Len3Speak- if WE all knew how precarious Molitor's position was, is it at all possible that Len3 hadn't heard the same thing and figured out the facts for himself? 2) Twins' "corporate speak" is spot on by Len3- the Twins embracing of "MN Nice" is in their corporate DNA. 3) If Mark DeRosa is brought back, does that mean Spirit of Vodka Dave will be brought back, too ? 4) Len3's random comments of Molitor's blind acceptance of instituting anything the FO wanted should have told Len3 that Molitor probably knew he was not: the man in the job; and that he had little support from FalVine long-term going all the way back to 2016. Had the Twins not made the playoffs in 2017, Molitor HAD to know he probably would have been replaced a year ago.
  22. jokin
    You should think that your insight was spot on. Molitor was always a dead man(ager) walking.
  23. jokin
    The "Twins Way" lives on. Despite major changes in top management, many corporate cultures' eccentric habits often have unlimited inertia.
  24. jokin
    And not their only "stretch". Whomever it was that sold the Twins on going after gaggles of college RPs set the Twins back on internally developing a competitive pitching staff by half a decade. One middle round RP flyer, maybe, but coming up with the concept of "converting" college RPs to SPs defied all common sense, logic, reason and historical reality. Hopefully, he/they are no longer employed by the new FO.
  25. jokin
    Vs Chi- 11-7 Vs Det- 12-7 Vs Cle- 9-10 Vs KC- 9-10 That's 41-34 overall, really good against CLE and the only disappointment intra-divisionally is KC. Depending on who's managing next season, Astudillo looks like a good bet to start as 2nd Catcher and end up as 3rd Catcher when/if Castro is fully recovered to play regularly. He's a keeper if the Twins can improve the pen enough to only require a 12-man pitching corps. He's the feel-good story of 2018- and a marketing department's dream player- but truth be told, the odds are long indeed that he can match production numbers anywhere close to this season.
×
×
  • Create New...