jokin
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Everything posted by jokin
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Sure, they've kept Smith around, it's what they do. But, as much as he's been heard from ever since, he may as well have been locked up in the basement or marooned on an island on The Lake of the Woods. And there's absolutely no need for some ridiculous Conspiracy Theory. When a GM is allowed to appoint/annoint his successor, the following (usually not very good) results can simply be chalked up to human nature (there are whole business courses being taught on the pitfalls involved in Management Successor Planning).
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Read his Twitter posts:th_alc:
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Yup. I was just doing my best to extract something else from the Marlins area of depth/redundancy.
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+1. Precisely why many of us were so upset when managment questioned his manhood and threw him under the bus.
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You do see them from "anonymous sources", I can imagine it sometimes comes in handy as a good negotiating ploy. And it's something that those of us who watch this organization on a daily basis knows (unfortunately), has the ring of truth attached to it.
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Mke, stop it with your "(un)reasonable assumptions & assessments" and "switching tactics" and stuff, already..... The "I Trust in TR and his Rebuild for the Entire Decade" crew are still adjusting to the "logic" within the new organizational meme.
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I hope the owners of this site do something about the constant drumbeat of "negativity" on this forum....... /takes tongue firmly back out of cheek.....
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Article: Rajai Davis and the Twins Outfield Depth
jokin replied to PseudoSABR's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
1) I missed the post where someone said, hinted or implied that Thome was a pitcher. 2 a) Past is Prologue. What happened in 2008 has relevant predictive value to how an organization operates in the future- it's indisputable that the Twins have a history of selling low/driving down value/giving talent away for nothing. Hopefully, the implications of these out of nowhere FA signings means that personnel value is being reassessed- and so these last 3 years of laughingstock status has shocked the stale Twins culture to its very core- for the better. 2 The Twins interest in Rajai Davis shows they learned from last year's fiasco assessment of the true value of their available OF talent- Good for TR to be proactive on that front, there are still other options available for acquisition. -
Since you'rre quite liberal in your use of WAR, the numbers should work out in a similar fashion. And, as I noted previously, Detroit dropped to 74 wins the next year, and it took 4 years for them to make the playoffs after the acquisition of Cabrera- there's little reason to think that Price diminishes much from his current value (if at all) 4 years from now.
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In 2016: The top 3 guys make ~$54M The bottom 15 guys make ~ $10M That leaves (adj. for inflation to a $120M payroll) ~$56M for Players # 4 through 10, averaging out to $8M/player/year in the mid-range category. I'd say that's doable. Hughes is done after 2016, Nolasco comes off no later than 2017, Mauer after 2018, Price/or other Ace to be named later- after 2019 or 2020? This leaves room to begin the process of buying out the arb years for the potential budding superstars, beginning in 2018, as well as signing additonal FAs to supplement at areas of need.
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Where's that SPEED! guy from last spring, now when we need him most, to differentiate without distincting?
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Ding, ding, ding. Price's K/BB ratio was 4th best on the season, but as in all of his numbers except Ks, he was crazy good after his injury, with a 6.50 K/BB ratio. Price was #1 in all of baseball in BB/9 in the second half with a 1.10, a wide margin ahead of his second place rival. For the season, even with an injury-riddled first half, he was essentially still tied in BB/9 for the #1 spot, with Cliff Lee (1.29 vs. 1.30 for Price). For that matter, his second half WAR of 2.9 was essentially identical to league leaders with 3.0 WAR numbers from Sanchez and Jiminez. And, as I previously noted, Price fell victim to some bad luck with by far the worst BABIP of his career (.298). Price led MLB in IP in the Second Half- the only pitcher who pitched over 100 innings in the second half (106.2), as well is in IP/GS @ 7.11 (the only pitcher averaging over 7 IP/Start) and was right there at 6.95 IP/GS for the season- just under MLBs best numbers from Lee, Kershaw and Wainwright. The guy is still an inngs-eating beast, and apparently learning to become even a better pitcher, not overly-dependent on his good stuff alone.
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Mariners: An Interesting Read on What's Been Going On
jokin replied to JB_Iowa's topic in Other Baseball
After a very quick read. this seems like a reasonable response and illustrative that there are 2 sides to every story (Wedge actually asked for a contract extension the day before he was gone?). I have to think that the M's are all-in on getting Tanaka, in which case, they would move to legit contender status in the AL West. -
Article: Rumor Mill Round-Up: 12/9
jokin replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yup. Besides Dozier, Correia has to be the top candidate for some negative regression in 2014. From the opposite aspect, I'm still hoping that Hughes brings significant positive regression to the mean. -
Article: Rumor Mill Round-Up: 12/9
jokin replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Tritto to Buck on one-year deal. (If they could flip Butera for Sulbaran, imagine what they might be able to excise for Buck) -
LoMo, Giancarlo Stanton and Adam Conley in a blockbuster package deal (Perkins, Arcia, Plouffe, Rosario and a take your pick of one of the low level minors sluggers- Harrison/Vargas/Walker).
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Which suggests to me that things are not as complex as you suggest, should the Rays be incentivized in making the deal happen by really coveting a Meyer/Rosario, et al, package, they might very well let the Twins proceed with the Twins contacting the agent before the ink is on the dotted line.
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Yes, but isn't K% based on a percentage of Ks per total number of batters faced? (SO/TBF) And, in looking at that $70M number on 3 guys over 4 years, that would still leave them well under the 2011 payroll number, wouldn't it?
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I totally agree that the Rays have a strong track record that indicates that they would best the Twins in a trade for Price, but Terry Ryan isn't near foolish enough to go all Dayton Moore and trade Buxton for Price. Now Meyer for Price- or Price-equivalent elsewhere- (plus the extra player accoutrements less Sano/Buxton) is a model the Twins should at least pursue. Are there strict rules for "tampering" charges when completing a trade like this? It seems like both sides have an interest in completing the deal, and a team like the Rays would not necessarily have a problem with the prospective team acquiring Price inquiring with his agent about the willingness to sign an extension before the deal is finalized.
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If it's strictly a non-career threatening injury, than absolutely, you'd have yourself a bargain. (FWIW, I saw Price pitch on his rehab in Florida last summer, his velocity and mechanics looked just fine- does anyone have data on his velocity after his return from the DL?). The evidence doesn't suggest that his career has been derailed. Coming back from his injury, the data suggests that Price still has it. Although his K/9 dropped to 7.10 post-injury, this number is only one K below his career average of 8.10--- and some of that K% drop you alluded to is at least partly related to the career high BABIP of .298. Price's WHIP after the injury was 1.00 (vs. career WHIP of 1.16) with an ERA of 2.87. Furthermore, there is even more evidence that his control took a major uptick- his K/BB was 5.59 after the injury, far higher than his career # (3.06). The evidence suggests that Price will be fine, and that he'll likely end up on a team like the Nats or Red Sox, teams with the type of prospects the Rays presumably covet in a deal like this.
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Doesn't it just take a phone call to his agent?
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You're still focusing on the short-term implications almost exclusively. Extensions after trades do happen, even the Twins (see Pavano, Carl). Price would pitch most of the 2020 season at age 34- this was the age of Carl Pavano when the Twins re-signed him! If (and I know it's a big if), if the Twins could go into this deal knowing they are near-certain to get Price locked up until 2020, you would have your Ace that sets you up to make a legit run each and every one of those 7 years, starting even in 2014 as a very fringy worst-to-first contender (ala 1990-1991).
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It can be argued that these types of moves are difficult-to-impossible to craft all into one seasson and therefore shouldn't be looked upon merely as short-term, feel-good, 66-win- to-72-win transactions. Only so much elite talent becomes available each season. As Levi brought up, the Tigers fleeced the Marlins by dangling oodles of prospects and then ponied up big bucks to Cabrera, it took the Tigers Four Years after acquiring Cabrera before they even made the playoffs again. But ask Dombrowski if it was still worth the few additional expensive wins in the short-term that Cabrera provided in the interim seasons of 2008-2010 when the Tigers clearly "failed". (Which is why a deal for Giancrlo Stanton for prospects should have been more aggresively pursued with the Marlins).
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It is very intriguing- that potential OF could be incredible, but it is quite the gamble. The ankle injury he sustained in 2013 was quite serious, with radical surgery and scary microfracture issues ( the last I read, Kemp wasn't going to ready for Spring Training), along with his torn labrum problem that carried over to his sub-standard 2013 performance from 2012. As Kemp is signed through 2019, even with $50M from the Dodgers thrown in, you're still talking about $78M due over the life of the contract- that's basically like having a Justin Morneau situation on your hands for the remainder of the decade.
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LOL, I voted for the "King", as well. From the "Pessimist" perspective, I note that the poll doesn't include the possibility of Doumit displacing the King? Given Doumit's (and Twins management's) apparent reluctance for him to continue a large role behind the plate, plus Gardy's Mancrush for Ryan, plus, the inability of Twins management to move veterans for value in midseason trades, I think a case can be made that {shudder} Doumit might sneak into that top spot when Presley's AAAA-ness reaches Clete Thomas proportions as the season unfolds.