jokin

My source above had the avg. ticket price @ $ 32.59 (perhaps more accurately reflecting premium pricing? But regardless, this further bolsters your point, if the Twins are competitive, all of those premium priced seats get sold, and maybe even at a higher average/tkt. to reflect the greater demand!)

The flaws in WAR for SPs on Fangraphs is well-documented and makes the stat suspect. If BR had even a positive WAR for Pelf, I could be sympathetic, but alas, his bWAR is -0.3!....and ESPN concurs with the same WAR rating. The stats suggest that Pelfrey will be better than last year.....but come on, it's hard for him to be worse. The striking thing that no one mentions much is Pelfrey's K/9 of 5.95 and K% of ~15% with the Twins are higher numbers than in ANY of his 5 healthy years, 2007-2011....This bucking of the trend in the opposite direction from all the rest of the Twins Starters might augur well for 2014, with his TJ-produced "stronger arm." His overall performance in those years was all over tha map, almost as maddening as watching him pitch live. The positive spin is Steamer forecasts Pelf building on those 2013 K numbers (K/9 6.14, K% 15.8%) and also coming in at below-career averages in ERA 4.29 and FIP 4.08. If he could come anywhere close to those numbers, Ryan will look like a veritable genius, and the backend of the rotation would be secured (even if still unwatchable with Pelfrey there).

We do know the cost when you fail to put up even a mediocre product for 3 years running: "Three years of losing costs Twins half their TV audience" http://m.startribune.com/news/?id=231241241 But after all that is said and done, the core audience remains and the Twins have still done well financially: "The Twins have lost half of their TV audience since 2010, and they sell 23 percent fewer tickets than they did in Target Field’s first year — they averaged only 758 more fans per home game last year than in the Metrodome’s final season. But there is little doubt that the Twins — and the sport as a whole — remain profitable." "The best news for the Twins: Unlike through-the-turnstile attendance at Target Field, the decline in TV ratings has virtually no effect on their bottom line. In fact, their income from television is about to take a large jump in 2014. The increased revenue comes from MLB’s new national media contracts with ESPN, Fox and TBS, which agreed to payments totaling $12.4 billion over the next eight years, more than doubling their expiring contracts. That means the Twins, like the other 29 teams, will collect more than $50 million a year from the networks, instead of the roughly $25 million they took in this year." It appears that the way the TV deals are structured, there is little incentive to improve the product, so putting people in the seats is the main area to maximize the bottom line number. The Twins Fans Cost Index for 2013 suggests these numbers are operative: Minnesota $32.59/ticket $221.36/total cost per family of four This works out to $55.34 per fan after ticket, parking, food and concession purchases. Not all pure profit, to be sure, but puts the revenue/attendee ratio in perspective... http://www.kshb.com/dpp/sports/baseball/mlb-average-ticket-price--fan-cost-index-for-all-30-baseball-teams#ixzz2XtggOV6A

We can only hope that TR doesn't come right out and essentially say "My work is done here". There's still dead weight to remove from this roster and key additions to be acquired. Ryan says he's "Open for Business", but he better be doing more than just "hanging the shingle out". Time to get creative, well, I'd settle for at least a little more original than, say, just bringing back a current Twin's brother-in-law, Jason Kubel. The Brett Anderson deal to Colorado shows that Ryan is a day late and a dollar short on what could have been a very beneficial and low-cost, low-risk, high reward deal. The Orioles love ex-Twins players, see what could happen by shaking the trees in Baltimore. The phone lines to all 29 teams and the relevant agents should be burning non-stop right into March.

This evening, the Twins just went over last year's payroll threshold, and though competing with no one, they signed Pelphrey and gave him a raise. And I don't see any irony at "picking at" the FA signings from last year, they were a joke for a GM who apologized to the fans for the team he put on the field in 2012 and said he was putting his total focus on upgrading the Starting Pitching, but instead, cut payroll by some 20%. We're in agreement that this offseason is young, but as I pointed out, Ryan shut the operation down for the winter at this point in time just one year ago...and hardly looked very vigorous and "aggressive" at the Hughes signing this year; if anything, he looked like his pet dog had died and wondering how many days were left before he retired again. To complete the makeover this year and return the team to some semblance of respectability, there is still much work to be done- ie, signing or trading for: another quality pitcher, a bopper bat and a decent Catcher, this will require some heavy lifting, I hope Terry is up to the task.

Ya, but they're better than their numbers indicate.

Arroyo as a pitcher who NEVER misses a start and has 9 STRAIGHT YEARS of 200+ IP is not: a has been, a never was, or a run of the mill. He would set a nice example to the rest of the rotation on preparedness and professionalism. Pelfrey is only acceptable as the #5 man in the rotation and as cheap trade bait back to the NL should he start the season strong. Arroyo career: 4.19 ERA 4.39 xFIP...... In 10 full-time seasons, 1 with an ERA over 5.00. Pelphrey career: 4.48 ERA 4.50 xFIP..... In 6 full-time seasons, 3 with an ERA over 5.00

Paul Maholm: 4.28 ERA/ 4.18 FIP/ 4.14 xFIP And Maholm's a lefty who is very tough on lefthanded hitters. And probably could have been acquired for the same or less money and/or years than Pelfrey.- and more tradeable, a perfect 5th starter. Is there a bigger picture behind the scenes?- ie ,with other Boras clients and the Twins intersecting their respective interests (Boras is a walking conflict of interests). Was there anyone else ever even seriously bidding on Pelfrey's services? I hope that Arroyo or Garza are still in play, and that some kind of deal is in the works for Deduno and/or Correia.

Two years isn't forever, it's just that whenever Pelfrey pitches, it just feels like forever.

The Reds already have 5 other likely starters. On this team, he'd definitely be ahead of at least 4 others in the rotation. If the Reds are insisting on staying at 1 year, the Twins only leverage is in going all in for a solid 2 year deal. It would be a a real buzz kill if that's the only stumbling block to getting this done- the guy's a 200 IP machine, and would offer serious leadership in the preparedness, accountability, mentorship and toughness departments for this staff.

On December 14th of last year, Ryan was done, completely done, in "upgrading" the team for 2013. And because we have made the 2 largest signings, means it's not anywhere close to time to stop with the upgrades. To come out of the Winter Meetings with zip can only be regarded as a setback to new-look Plan B. And your "Cry Poor" approach is so 2009, the Twins have the money available, even though a few of the clubs you mention are in a better financial position- the ones you mentioned are all Big Game Hunting, I don't think anyone's realistically projecting the Twins to compete for most of those names, just to make prudent, but solid incremental improvements at glaring areas of need. It's true, 29 teams have received media money, but each club's situation is unique, many clubs aren't spending at all, but rather are looking to stand pat or even further significantly reduce, not increase, bloated payrolls- these are clubs where a salary relief deal might work in the Twins favor for a trade. To reiterate, the Twins as of yet, still haven't increased payroll over last year, they passed or withdrew from seriously competing on some very needed and acquirable international and MLB FAs, and there isn't anyone, even Terry Ryan, arguing that the current projected Twins offense has improved over the anemic 2013 production- and they certainly have no excuses for needing to do better than Pelfrey as their third SP signing

Does anyone know the parameters of a potential deal? 2/$26...2/$30...2/$32??? Is there a buyout in the negotiations for the 2nd year and/or team option for a 3rd year? (leaving room to sign a position player or prefarably, two, or a 5th starter like Maholm?).

What's absurd about this standard? Is Howard Sinker "sarcastic" too? Going straight to the horse's mouth, Terry Ryan himself has admitted that these needs should be addressed this offseason as priorities. As of right now, assuming no other major additions occur, the Twins payroll will be lower than 2013, which was lower than 2012, which was lower than 2011- yep, the facts are absurd, aren't they? The fact that the Twins have for all intents and purposes admitted that what they have done with the SP over the last 2 years has been an utter failure, means that they are going forward with a changed mindset. This major philosophical change means that breaking the trend, ie, spending on higher quality talent, should include other areas of deficiency- it makes little sense to take half measures only. Should the $25M be put to use in this philosophical change? I certainly hope so! As of today, they still haven't spent one penny of the "found revenue". Adding another quality pitcher to rotation (of those listed above, less Pelfrey), a Big League bat and a proven catcher shouldn't even cost the full $25.... hardly "an absurd standard to set"......

The O's are also finalists for Grant Balfour. All joking aside, it seems like the Orioles would make a good trade partner for the Twins. Let's go Terry.

Exactlty right. If Doumit (and Willingham) are on the active roster, they are going to play.

Yup. Until TR ponies up for Arroyo/Garza/Pelfrey/Santana plus a Catcher, plus a Bat, it's more of the same old/same old. I was genuinely surprised that a major, roster clearing, trade wasn't accomplished at the Winter Meetings, and the best that has come out of it so far has been Kubel on a minor league deal.

Bingo to all of the above.

Thanks for the very intriguing updates. A few questions. 1 ) What is the level of baseball in the ABL? An 18-year-old dominating in AA ball means more than an 18 year old dominating a Rookie League. 2) At what point in his development do the Twins impose innings restrictions on Thorpe, or refuse to allow him to pitch in the ABL completely? 3) I see Luke Hughes and 3 other Twins prospects made the ABL All-Star team, is that a good thing or a bad thing?

+1 Pretty cogent analysis. Kubel could be gone earlier if say, he has a May 15 deadline in his contract and, miracle of miracles, Parmelee is raking. On the flip side, Kubel might actually stay on as the cheap "veteran presence" should the Twins be able to unload Wil.ingham and/or Doumit

Howard Sinker has a much different take: ".....(Mike Pelfrey represents) an uncomfortable fallback if the Twins fail to bring in one of the bigger names who are still weighing their options. (Matt Garza, Bronson Arroyo and Ervin Santana.) In a better Twins world, Correia comes to spring training in Fort Myers as the No. 4 starter with competition wide open for the final spot among Pelfrey and the others, which is better than filling the rotation by default and prayer.... I also don't want to believe that the amount of Pelfrey chatter is an indication that the Twins aren't really serious contenders for the others... It also shouldn't obscure the fact that, as Terry Ryan has pointed out, the roster still needs to be upgraded in other areas. Making assumptions about Josmil Pinto's ability to be the starting catcher is unwise and there are outfield needs in the short term that were made clearer when the Twins tried unsuccessfully to sign the speedy-but-flawed Rajai Davis. (Cutting a minor-league deal with Jason Kubel does nothing for the notion that the Twins need outfielders who can catch the ball.) I'm struck by the direction that the New York Mets appear to be taking this off-season. After finishing 22 games behind the division leaders in the National League East last season, they have signed Curtis Granderson and Bartolo Colon. They are still a flawed team, but a flawed team that is hovering around the .500 mark come August can position itself to be in the postseason discussion in baseball's expanded playoffs. That's what I want from the Twins in 2014, to be in the postseason discussion come late summer rather than careening toward another season when we wonder whether they'll be closer to losing 90 games or 100. Yes, "playoff discussion" is weak soup compared to our expectations from a few years back. But an equation of improved roster + improved performance + a surprise or two should be able to yield some excitement that's been lacking from Target Field for the last three years. For the Twins to be taken seriously in 2014 and a team to be reckoned with in the years following would keep me happy for now." I agree. 3 years of ineptitude, punching-bag and laughingstock-status is enough. The Kubel signing looks like a classic Terry Ryan low-risk bargain-bin quick fix. I hope there is more to come than just this type of move to address the glaring needs in the batting order. And they still have to go get a quality SP.... and Paul Maholm as a back-end starter for 2 years makes more sense than Pelfrey.

That's what makes the Orioles major league deal all the more intriguing. He certainly would have had the chance to platoon as a DH or RF there. Makes one think that Ryan has promised Kubel that he will get a very fair shot at the full-time RF slot. Has anyone discovered if Kubel has an opt-out date when he can void the contract and move on? I'm guessing that the date on the contract is very early in the season.

From Mike Berardino on Thursday, wrapping up the Winter Meetings- a baseball official told the reporter that Ryan has rebuffed inquiries about Pinto being available in trade, but that Doumit IS available, but has received very low interest from prospective clubs. Regarding the catching situation, Ryan said he wasn't worried at all about Pinto's injury. Regarding the overall catching situation going into 2014, he said this: “We’re paying attention to it. I’ve got a few other things on our plate, but certainly you pay attention to about any area.” So, IOW...It sounds like adding a SP and another bat are higher "plate" priorities at this point.

Please provide the alleged quote. Other than Howard Sinker's out of context comment (presumably ascribed to Terry Ryan), that Doumit was done playing C, it was for the rest of 2013, only, has there been any other direct-source reference about Doumit's ongoing positional status?

A guarantee from Terry that the trees aren't going back in CF?

Excellent take, Ben, "poor man's Buehrle" sums it up nicely. I've been on the Twins getting Maholm as a potential bargain pick-up since the 11-12 offseason. The Braves confirmed my opinion by acquiring him in a midseason trade in 2012 and then exercising his option for 2013. He dominates left-handed batters and he has more than a fighting chance to give you 180 steady innings from the #5 spot in the rotation. If the Twins liked Correia, they should love Maholm from the portside. And with his down year of 2013 associated with an injury, he seems to be a classic buy-low, short term contract candidate. Would a $5M + IP incentives- sufficient for him to potentially reach $7M- be enough to bring him on board? Maybe add a team option 2nd year w/ buyout, as in his previous contract?