jokin

Yes you did. Let me help you out on solving your mystery. You casually brushed aside the most major FA SP upgrade since Jack Morris in signing Garza as merely, "adding a starting pitcher." Gut the offense? My proposal will radically strengthen the offense, which is what I have been advocating since the day they showed their intentions for finally spending money on quality FAs by signing Nolasco. Please refer back to the potential offensive batting stats from my proposed lineup- huge increase in overall OPS at the bottom and middle of the order. Drew, your OPS+ 98 career hitter, bats nearly .890 OPS against RHP, coupled with Florimon's favorable numbers against LHP, you have near a combined league-best average at the SS position- that is the very opposite definition of "gutting"- and also not hurting the SS defense in a platoon scenario. Trade away the bullpen? Right now, the Twins most valuable trading chip besides the uber-prospects, is Glen Perkins. To get a further boost on offense in a trade bigger than just the SS for Correia trade, it might require considering a more blockbuster trade opportunity and then finding an internal solution for replacing Perkins....we have many, many options to do just that....or the Twins can just sign Drew, Young and Garza and trade the higher-priced relievers and keep Perkins, as I also proposed as an option, and rely on our vast depth in potential relievers from our excess starters and our up-and-coming-knocking-on-the-door potential relievers... which I also thoroughly catalogued. There is no "gutting" in my proposal. Duensing is scheduled to make $2M and we have better LHP options for a lot less $$$ (check his lefty-lefty split in 2013, not good). Burton is long in the tooth and also replaceable for less. Drew is not a fringe player. Hardy is not a fringe player. Garza is not a fringe player. Young is not a fringe player. Weiters is not a fringe player. Reynolds or Betemit in a platoon scenario would maximize their offensive value and minimize their downside. You might have to provide salary relief to the O's by picking up one of their excess OFers to help them clear roster space to add an extra free agent. So what. If Willingham would be involved in a trade involving Weiters, the trade is a wash, and might cost you a prospect like Rosario and/or Pinto.

I'm in agreement here. I think they can sign Garza now and join in on the waiting game with Boras on the Drew situation. They might be able to poach him from the Sox and only have to commit to a one or two year deal with a slight overpay. Boras has gone with one-year deals in the past, sign him and then let him walk after Boras rejects a QO. You end up with an extra pick in the low-30s one year removed- instead of at 43 as it now stands.

I don't understand why the need to earn meaningless poster Fantasy GM bonus points by recommending that available monies for upgrading our favorite team instead end up in the Executive Bonus Pool at the end of each season.

Did you forget to acknowledge that you were factually wrong about Garza's numbers and that Drew and Young don't qualify as "replacement parts"? I never said they were going to deal Swarzak and Duensing to the Orioles. I proposed that the Twins fill the needs that the O's actually have. And in your own fantasy, you conveniently left out Burton from your equation- $3.25M this year, and a little long in the tooth- they can replace Burton fairly easily from within at near the minimum. And yes, there's a fighting chance that what the Twins have coming up can replace what Swarzak and Duensing have to offer at the minimum- especially in a bullpen that won't need a mop-up guy like Swarzak as much, and with likely better lefties than Duensing in waiting. If you care to re-read my trade proposal less selectively, the O's would clear Hardy's ~$10M off their books (due in 2014 through already-achieved incentives) and pick up Correia @ $5.5M. The Twins would likely have to pick up another of their expendables in the OF to clear more $$$s for the Os and clear another roster spot if they want to sign both a FA pitcher and bat. To make the trade more interesting, they could take a run at Weiters in a package deal (due ~$8M in arb in 2014), probably costing them Perkins, freeing up $5M more for the O's. Throw in an Oriole prospect and a Twins prospect and/or Hammer (Rosario?) and you have yourself a blockbuster offseaon deal that appears win-win.

Depending on what it costs to get him, I concur with you. Hardy appears to be fully healthy now, playing a solid SS on an everyday basis. And there might be something he wants to prove on a return tour of duty with the Twins.

No argument for your assessment of the result with Willy in LF, but then, that's what the Twins have done the last 2 years, and the Twins and Gardy are creatures of habit, and the alternative to start the season is Parmellee or Hermann? Nope. Agree on Florimon, but the Twins need to explore various ways to upgrade the offense. Right now, through FA, SS is one of the most obvious ways to do so- and having both Drew and Flo-mo is one way to achieve that goal.

You are misanalyzing the situation- winning 95 games is my objective, not losing 95- my prescription would provide for the possibility of a significant upgrade in the offense, while dowgrading the bullpen only slightly, on paper. The Terry Ryan upgrade in starting pitching has improved the Twins to the point that there are going to be at least 25 more games where the QS stat comes into play- which means many more winnable games and less dependence on the bullpen to win those games- I have no clue where you are coming up with your stats, they don't make any sense in this analysis-- Matt Garza has a career OPS + of 108- how are Steven Drew and Michael Young "replacement parts"- adding these 2 (or Hardy), helps raise the offense from "punchless" to "viably competitive". And....the easiest area to upgrade a team is in the bullpen- just look at what TR did in the 2011-12 offseason- and look at all the arms still available now. The Twins also have multiple options knocking at the door. In addition, how is moving Burton, who was injured last year, and either Duensing or Swarzak, "gutting" the bullpen? In regards to Perk, the question of trading him at his maximum value, in order to upgrade the team overall, has to come into question here. The Twins have more than enough pitching depth and up-and-coming prospects (May, Jones, Worley, Meyer [think Gausman here], Tonkin, Deduno [when healthy], Darnell, Ibarra) to absorb the losses and go with their current pitching depth chart- or even go outside the roster for a Fien or Burton-type on the super-cheap, they are likely to deliver similar results to the RPs they lose, for just a fraction of the cost.

I agree that the Twins should attempt to keep Hammer healthy. But you don't want to preclude the chance for all of the contenders, AL, and especially NL, to fully consider what he brings to the table in trade- the other teams don't know what he can do defensively- in 2014- post injury- if he DH's the whole season. He made it all the way through the 2012 season successfully, that's what he and the Twins should shoot for in 2014.

Regarding the Hammer, the Twins likely want him playing in the field to maximize his mid-season trading value- so DH full-time to start out the season is probably a dead letter. We shouldn't let Ryan so easily off the hook here. The Twins could sign all three- Garza, Drew and one of Betemit/Reynolds/Young (maybe even 2 of these 3)-........By trading Correia and 2 of the high-priced relievers you save around $11M, they would still have money left over from their $25M bonus media money. The over-all payroll would come in right around where it was in 2012- this is doable, the Twins just need to be willing to step up to the plate.

SS - .682 (Steven Drew vs. RHP .876 Florimon vs. LHP .665---- OR trade for JJ Hardy .739 OPS*) * The Orioles are looking to move Hardy and the Twins have some of the pieces the O's are shopping for--SP/LF/Closer (they might even want Florimon back in some kind of package deal). The trade should also net Ryan a top prospect.

I like your analysis. I like your proposed lineup better with Drew and another upgraded bat in it: League Average OPS by Position: C - .708 (Pinto had .963 in MLB last year and .882 in AA/AAA) 1B - .777 (Mauer had .880 last year) 2B - .709 (Dozier .726, hopefully can stay above .700) SS - .682 (Steven Drew vs. RHP .876 Florimon vs. LHP .665 ) 3B - .742 (Plouffe .701, .756 in 2012) LF - .724 (Willingham .709, career .830) CF - .738 (Hicks .598, Pressley .699) RF - .741 (Arcia .734) DH - .728 (Michael Young .730) or (Mark Reynolds vs LHP .725/Arcia .769 vs. RHP.....or....Parmelee vs RHP .696) Proposed batting order: 1st - .716 (Dozier .726 last year) 2nd - .728 (Mauer .880) 3rd - .774 (Willingham .709 last year, .830 career) 4th - .783 (Arcia .734) 5th - .747 (Betemit .819 career vs RHP, Plouffe .842 career vs LHP) 6th - .737 (Pinto .963 in SSS last year) 7th - .706 (Young @ .730 or other options at DH- ~.720-.740) 8th - .681 (Drew @ .876/Florimon @ .665 in platoon split) 9th - .633 (Presley @ .699) The bottom of your order suddenly becomes much more formidable, adding to your proposed upgrade and potential bounceback years in the middle part of the order. And Boras has gone with one-year deals in the past. A one-year deal for Drew wouldn't hurt the Twins at all. The pick they lose this year can be regained as a supplemental first-rounder with a QO, or the Twins can trade Drew before the deadline for a decent prospect. And-----Drew platooning gives him a much better chance at staying healthy throughout the entire season. And doing both of these deals- Drew, Young/Reynolds would be short-term to fit in the budget this year, and not block anyone down the road.

2010 -2013 (4 yr.) [fWAR/ERA/ERA+/IP*YR]....... for Twins Potential Rotation Members Nolasco [11.0/4.34/92/188] Garza [9.9/3.72/107/165] Hughes [6.8/4.62/89/146] Pelfrey [5.8/4.38/88/142]* Worley [4.1/4.12/93/106]* Diamond [2.5/4.43/90/114]* Correia [1.6/4.63/83/160] Garza's best year, arguably, is 2011 (fWAR 4.9, ERA+ 118), not 2009 (fWAR 2.9, ERA+ 110), but even at close to a gentleman's wash- it's only 2 years removed. And Garza's superior peripherals give him the most upside and at the very least, by far the best chance in this group to be a #2 level starter....perhaps make the contract more incentive-laden? On a 3-year deal, if you could get one year close to '09 level and another close to '11 level and get an incentive-inspired average of 185 IP/yr over the contract, Goofy as Garza was (is?), I would argue it's well worth the risk in getting this level of pitching talent without the loss of a #1 pick. * 3 years of data, not 4.

I am in full agreement with the gist of your posts, particularly the bolded statement. Getting Garza at 4 years ( I'd prefer 3 years) gives you solid options, moving one or more of the curent hottest SPs who don't fit in to your long-term plans- or moving a guy like Correa in ST when his tradng value could potentially be at its height from teams desperate for a proven veteran 5th SP option. And the other guys that signed, like Hughes and Pelphrey know they have to bring it. Moreover, the Twins should still be thinking about taking a no-downside minor league flyer on Johan if his physical indicates even a small chance of some decent innings (he's got to have more left in the tank than either Harden or Perez had, right?), and/or looking to stockpile international unknowns or bounceback guys like Suk-Min Yoon (when would Boras ever find the time to somehow extract an expensive deal for him?), Chris Capuano and even, Joe Blanton (who's rumored to possibly be released outright by the Angels in Spring Training). Having even more past-proven and bounceback motivated talent in the organization working hard to force the issue for available innings can only help change the too-comfortable culture of the last 2 years---the nightmare scenario, where a stable full of SP AAAA-level-types....and worse.... on scholarship or throwing out of sheer desperation and being "led" by Jason Marquis/Vance Worley-types really hurt the Twins credibility.

Our bigger problem than Florimon's dream of reaching .633 OPS is that our Leadoff Hitter OPS was .634!!!! The Twins 2013 Leadoff slash of .225/.286/.347/.634 was plain awful and virtually identical to the average #9 spot that you cited for supposedly the worst batter in a lineup.......and especially disturbing when compared to the League Average at the Leadoff slot of .264/.324/.393/.716. Until this reality is either addressed by the Twins in a player upgrade...... or someone currently in the system "steps up to the plate" and merely reaches league average #s in the #1 spot in the order, Florimon isn't going to get much help in raising his already-offensively-challenged bat in the 9 hole- based on the status quo remaining intact for 2014, the most we can realistically expect from Florimon is a marginal improvement, particularly from the right side of the plate.

Until he resolves his underlying issues as documented in this thread, I would prefer " very rangy" and "flashy" to "elite" to more accurately characterize Florimon's defense.

The Orioles are looking for depth at Starting Pitcher, a Closer to replace Johnson, possibly a LF (if Lough is envisioned as a 4th OF), a DH....all on an economy budget-> (Weiters is due to make $8M/JJ Hardy due $10M with already achieved incentive bonuses). Some combination of Correia/Perk/Plouffe/Willingham/(Rosario or Pinto) could net you some combination of Hardy/Weiters/one of the O's SP top-ten pitching prospects (Rodriguez?)/Position filler & salary relief guy like Reimold. Both teams would fill big holes with this deal, and it frees up some additional money for the Orioles to sign Kendrys Morales and possibly go more aggresively after an additional front-line SP.

I'm not sure how much "up" is left in Florimon's "swing". As I stated, he's 27, in his 8th professional season. Although I think he can make a marginal improvement over 2013, the Oliver projection surmises that last year was his peak WAR value, and that over the next 5 years he plays himself into a utility role, at best. Hopefully, they can sell high on Florimon...but FWIW, the Santana projections don't look like much of an overall upgrade...more of a continuation in the opportunity of paying minimum wage at the position out to 2018.

Actually, Florimon isn't that young, he just turned 27 and just completed his 8th year of professional ball. I will agree with you that, at various times, he does look anywhere from competent to spectacular, but at other times, he has made inexplicably bad plays or made bad decisions, or seemingly looked like he's lost focus. For the most part he has proven that defensively he's an above average major league SS. If he can build on the strong points he delivered in 2013, cut back on the mental lapses, improve his DP rate, he can be an unquestioned top quintile SS. Meanwhile, hitting in the 9 hole in the order, his offensive approach would be greatly aided by being able to bat in front of a real, live MLB-level lead off hitter.

Here's the link, rank-ordered by UZR: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d As I said, defensive stats still have a ways to go. The biggest difference that stands out between Peralta's numbers and Florimon's is the Error rate. Peralta's number is 2nd best among the top 14 SSs, while Florimon's is 2nd worst. This follows with the eye test and the number of errors each committed. Florimon gets to more balls but has had some muffs and some inexplicably bad throws on easy plays, Peralta is more consistent on the easier plays. Perhaps FG values the error rate too highly in their overall metric, perhaps not. One thing is for certian, Florimon's value will go way up when he becomes more consistent on the easy plays and moves his DPR into positive territory.

The Yankees might be a bit of a stretch at #5, but maybe not too far from that #. Like the contract for Ellsbury long-term, or not, they got huge upgrades in 2014 with the premiere OF on the FA market, another big OF bat that plays every day and is well-familiar with the New York media from his many years with the Mets...... and the premiere FA C signing with them, as well as retaining Kuroda. They've already made it clear that they are going to completely ignore the International signing restrictions for 2014-15, so there's no reason to think that they will abide by their supposed self-imposed luxury tax limit...therefore no one should be surprised when they end up getting at least one of the 3 best SPs on the market, and quite possibly 2, especially if Arod serves the whole 211 game suspension. Kelly Johnson isn't great, but as a dead pull lefty, the short porch in RF should serve him quite well- the overall production will certainly be down at 2B, but he is fully capable of beating the 99 OPS+ that he got in 2013, which should translate to 20+ HRs in Yankee Stadium. And Nunez won't be going into the season as a starter on the depth chart, the Yankees will surely sign a veteran or make a trade before that happens. With the possible return of strong production from a fully healthy Tex and Ivan Nova for a whole season and plenty of potential excess trading chips in the OF and DH, the Yankees aren't that far away.

FWIW, Oliver projects him as a 1.0 WAR with a positive defensive rating as a 20 year old starting in place of Florimon on April 1 and jumping straight from Class A ball.... so at least one service is high on his defensive ability to this point. And in year 5 of their projections, when Polanco would only be 24, they project a .708 OPS hitter with a 2.3 WAR value with the same level of defense. According to Oliver, this year was the best we will ever see from Florimon (1.3 WAR) at age 27- the Oliver projection is Polanco would surpass that number in 2015 at age 21.

I haven't looked up the criteria for the SDI metric. I think everyone is in agreement that none of these defensive measurments are perfect- especially for one-season measurments- but UZR is a pretty all-encompassing measurement of a defensive player's total competence in the field, and it confirms that Simmons is head and shoulders above all others, but for 2013, UZR only classifies 2 shortstops who are categorized at the next tier of "great", and those are: Andrelton Simmons 24.6 Alciedes Escobar 10.9 Yunel Escobar 10.7 Next tier (ie, "Good" or Above average) Clint Barnes 8.9 Pete Kozma 6.7 Troy Tulowitzki 6.6 Zach Cozart 6.4 JJ Hardy 6.0 Alexei Ramirez 5.5 Steven Drew 5.3 UZR of 0-5 "Average" Elvis Andrus 4.6 Ian Desmond 4.4 Pedro Florimon 4.3 Brandon Crawford 3.8 Jhonny Peralta 3.5 Brendan Ryan 2.1

Spot on, on both. Unfortunately, Florimon sometimes falls into that Latin player stereotype of free-swinging (leads as worst among all SS in K%- 25.8%) and lack of focus or sufficient interest in the job at hand. I just don't know if it's part of his nature to "take over" and be the leader through both word and deed. At best, he probably can be a good placeholder for now until one of the prospects fully emerges. Still, he has shown enough flashes at the plate to anticipate an overall improvement in WAR value in 2014. And Yunel Escobar is on the top of that tier of great fielding shortstops just below Simmons- Florimon is the next step down from Escobar, defensively. Florimon certainly has the potential to move to the Escobar level.

Agreed. But the granular stats can be indicative of the types of adjustments being made as the season progresses, as was the point in your original post. Clearly, Hicks and his coach were adjusting and experimenting, trying to find a formula that would work for him. For example, ML pitchers saw his passive approach at the plate and thus, Hicks ranked quite high for receiving first pitch strikes in the zone in 2013 (57.5%)- His Joe Mauer-like approach in passively taking first strikes ended up working against Hicks big-time last year- When Hicks came up aggressively and swung at the first pitch in his PA- .254/.261/.522/.783 When Hicks came up passively and took the first pitch in his PA- .173/.258/.280/.579 This kind of granular info tells a lot more than just the OPS as a stand-alone stat.

Yep. I think that when you get labeled as a 5-tool guy, you sometimes end up with someone trying to unrealistically live up to the expectations of always carrying that full tool box around with you. I hope you aren't being overly dogmatic referring to Hicks in the past tense, there is still time to make up for the bad plan/lost season that now hangs over his head and definitively address the plate discipline issue. I think his 2012 AA numbers should be the guide on where to emphasize his career-path. He had a 14% BB rate, with 32 SBs (75% rate)- great mix of speed and a good batting eye- A .382 OBP rate with some punch in his bat, to boot- .459 SLG. His dramatic response to insertion as the lead-off man in late June after a prolonged 2-month slump. The Twins saw all that and visualized Hicks as the ideal guy to hit in front of Mauer- and then stubbornly refused to acknowledge that they had ignored Hicks' adjustment history and jumped the gun on him. I think the meeting of the minds this offseason should emphasize a battle plan focusing through various means on keeping his OBP at an elevated level on a consistent basis. The power can then come naturally as he compiles more major league ABs. There's still enough in his skill-set package to expect a possible 5 year run in his peak years of a batting slash of .275/.370/.430 with plus OF defense. Domonic Brown is a somewhat apt comp for how Hicks could develop. Brown wasn't rushed quite as fast to the Phillies, proving in his 5th minor league year in a full year at AA/AAA that he merited a call-up. This was followed by more trips down to AAA in 2011 and 2012, as his ML numbers with the Phillies were verrrrry 2013-Hicks-like in 2010, 2011 and 2012.... and we all know what Brown accomplished in 2013 at age 25/26. (.272/.324/.494). Hicks won't hit for that much power, but he's faster, draws more walks and therefore is capable of OBPing 50 points better than Brown. Patience and well-thought-out tinkering is going to be the key to maximizing his value.