jokin

Exactly right!

People were trotting out Swarzak as a 2nd round success story. Plenty of Swarzak-level talent in the 3rd round and later, the Twins need to be able to draft smarter for the future AND sign proven major league FA talent to play with the nearer-future top 100 prospects.

Exactly right on the alleged Drew salary "risk" in the 2016 out year of a potential contract, but it's even easier to assuage all of this anxiety around here. Gobs of money comes off the books this year (at least $15.25M) and another $9+M, or likely more, comes off after 2015. If the Twins want to "spend money just to spend money", they certainly have plenty of wiggle room- they will be working off of a "base" somewhere at least $20M below the present budget base of $80-$85M. And does anyone truly believe that acquiring a true quality FA SS is the future commitment course that the Twins will take? The coming SS FA "class" of 2015 was dissected in the Drew thread. Once it's thoroughly examined, and with the high likelihood that a large percentage of the "quality" SSs being extended by their existing clubs, Yunel Escobar looks like the only one that would fit in the Twins price range and age range, and the Rays have a 2015 team option on him.

Not far-fetched at all: First half Florimon: .636 OPS Second half Florimon: .573 OPS In the meantime, Drew has a career history of getting stronger as the season progresses, as exemplified in 2013: First half Drew: .722 OPS Second half Drew: .837 OPS Please note, Florimon's bat is so lowly disregarded among stat-heads, that some Fantasy Baseball sites don't even list him among their 30+ draftable options.

I'm no sabre-genius, but I think I can safely forecast that Drew will still be an infinitely better hitter 2 years down the road than Florimon. And you can't leave out fWAR, which would indicate 2.1 extra wins (3.4 vs. 1.3, with a Win being worth up to $6M, seems right in line with the cost), and if Drew is properly utilized to maximize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses (ie, Escobar inserted against LHPs in 30 games or so with his career .739 OPS vs. them, or, in conjunction with Plouffe and his well-documented dominaton of LHP), that WAR, specifically oWAR, could actually increase from that projection. Some in this thread have added that Rome wasn't built in a day, but, by: 1) adding Drew, 2) along with another impact starter yet to be signed 3) plus the 2 SP additions already signed 4) plus significant positive regression from players coming off of down years 5) plus significant contributions from impact rookies/sophs (Pinto, Sano, Meyer, Arcia, Gibson).... and now you're talking about an increase in potential WAR of 20 or more, yielding a possible fringe contender in 2014 and something better than that in 2015.

This Just In....from the Trib: "Miguel Sano said a month of rehab has convinced him that no surgery will be necessary on his right elbow, which grew sore last season. “My elbow feels pretty good,” said the Twins third base prospect. “There’s no pain."" http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/241922301.html?page=2&c=y

Both good options, but why give up the decent prospects that both of these players would command when you can get Drew for $$$ only? And the Twins most immediate need in the lineup is a bat, where Drew is clearly better than the other 2 options?

Yep, that 3 year demand has been Boras's starting point for negotiations for quite some time now, and with the "position flexibility" gambit, clearly the price he can ask of the market has been dropping for a potential Non-Shortstop. And I've been all-in on overpaying for 2 years from the get-go. Structuring a deal with Performance Achievements, PAs and Games Played combined with a Team Option in Year 3 seems like the optimum way to go, but being potentially saddled with an unproductive Year 3 (2016) from Drew will not cripple the franchise's ability to operate competitively.

A grievous ankle injury in an awkward slide at home and a concussion due to a beaning are not "health concerns".....unless you don't bounce back from those said-injuries. Drew has come through with flying colors. The argument in this thread against Drew started with the strong objection against the deal by Drew supposedly commanding 4/$52- I haven't seen that figure bandied about at all recently- I thought their starting point in negotiations was always a 3-year deal? The Mets were balking at a smaller number with only a 2 year commitment. The Red Sox public stance is they need him for one year. Boras has already blinked, by letting it be known that Drew has positional flexibility. The price for Drew is obviously coming closer to a place where Drew could fall to the Twins- and warts and all- he would be a major upgrade at a position with no obvious help on the horizon, and represent a cost that won't cripple the franchise should it not work out perfectly.

And maybe the Astros, too. I'm surprised that the Cardinals aren't in the Top Ten MLB.com list of clubs (see below), and I'm stunned that the Red Sox and Dodgers ARE in this list*** ***(or maybe not, I guess building a farm system doesn't require losing for 20 years like the Pirates and Royals, after all). What a difference from the Baseball Prospectus Top 101 which showed 8 Twins on their list. Is the Twins farm system really #1 as so many claim? And as much as I like Berrios thus far, how does a guy who projects as a likely RP have more "projectbility" than other guys in the system (Thorpe, Gonsalves, et al)? We had a 5-man Wave in 2013 with mixed results (Hicks, Arcia, Pinto, Tonkin, Gibson). The 2014 "2nd Wave" of 5, should crest noticeably higher as it could finally begin featuring some of the elite guys: Sano, Meyer, Buxton?? (Rosario, May). If the season goes as expected, with 70-74 wins, I would hope that the roster is cleared out via trade and DFA so that these 5 join the Twins between June 1 and September 1. After that, though, the arrival time of the "Third Wave" is highly problematic: Stewart, Berrios, 2014 1st Rd. Pick, (Santana, Walker, Polanco, Kepler, Thorpe, Gonsalves, Vargas). And since there is a study out there that shows that only 1 out of 4 legit pitching prospects become effective major leaguers.....It sure seems there's still a lot of work to do (and surplus $$$ employed for additional better players acquired- through FA, International and new-found willingness in taking on unexpired contracts). Prospect points [TABLE=class: stats_table] Teams Players inTop 100 Pts. Astros 7 439 Red Sox 9 436 Cubs 7 393 Pirates 6 364 Twins 5 342 Royals 4 215 Dodgers 4 207 Mets 3 185 Orioles 3 184 Rockies 4 179 [/TABLE]

I'l take a word meal of 1 "definitely" (on a 4-year deal) over 4 "maybes" in the 2nd round every time the opportunity is presented. I know you were speaking glibly, but in all seriousness, finding another long relief/low leverage specialist with a career ERA+ of 93, 4.45 ERA and 5.6 K/9 in the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th........etc.,.....round...... shouldn't really be all that difficult for a club's scouting department to discover, now should it?

Paging Scott Baker!!!!!

Fien and Burton already had some noticeable warning flags in 2013 as they neared reaching age 30 and 33: Fien 2012 ERA+: 201 2013 ERA+: 104 2012 ERA: 2.06 2013 ERA: 3.92 Oliver 2014 projection: 3.62 Burton 2012 ERA+: 189 2013 ERA+: 106 2012 ERA: 2.18 2013 ERA: 3.82 Oliver 2014 projection: 3.67 I think they'll still be fine in 2014, but what's wrong with having another RHP option that can throw it at 97 MPH?- with nearly a career K% of 33% against righty bats, I might add- and mix it up with the 91 MPH that Fien and Burton throw? This is not a perfect comparison with Villareal whatsoever (Fien came through the college ranks and had his own injury issues).....but, FWIW......Casey Fien's major league numbers before becoming a Twin at age 28: 2 years (ages 25 and 26) Innings Pitched: 14 ERA+: 56 ERA: 9.69 H/9: 10.9 K/9: 6.25 Seems like Villareal is a buy-low candidate much like Fien was 2 years ago, only going in to a deal, Villareal actually has one sterling major league season under his belt and has a thumb injury, not an arm injury.

If I recall correctly, the Red Sox somehow found the need for kicking the tires on Danny Valencia, yielding the Twins Jeremias Pineda. I can easily envision a return type of trade for Villareal, with the Twins giving up someone as inconsequential and buried deep in the depth chart as Pineda was to the Sox.

Villareal is strictly a RP as a major-leaguer, not an SP. And there's virtually no risk in seeing what he brings to the table. And that age number didn't seem right, Villareal actually doesn't turn 27 until mid-May. His first big league taste was in his 5th pro year in April of 2011, at age 23.

Except Villareal has something neither of your other two examples posesses, his one year of full season ball produced an ERA+ of 162 as a very decent set-up guy for the Tigers. Seems like a much better risk picking him up as a DFA- than trading away a future 2-time Gold Glove and slugging Shortstop for a guy who still hasn't proven anything.

Except that was a key ingredient in the rationale the Twins made to City of Minneapolis, Hennepin County, as well as the citizens of Minnesota to get them to agree to the constuction of their playhouse. The added revenue from TF meant no more losing of in-house talent to Free Agency, and the ability to compete with the "Haves" for the missing FA pieces critical to remaining playoff-competitive, year-in, year-out. A winning team seems like a faded, distant memory now.... (and I'm not advocating for matching or beating the contract that the Yankees have offered Tanaka....for most every team except the Yankees and Dodgers, this contract would be insanely risky).

With Grady Sizemore signing with the Red Sox, Brayan Villareal has been DFA'd by the Sox. The righty reliever is coming off of a thumb injury and a big trade from the Tigers during the 2013, rendering the season as pretty much a lost year for Villareal. The guy was coming off of a monster first full major league season in 2012 for Detroit, with 10.9 K/9 and only 6.3 H/9. Given that this was only a thumb injury and that he still likely can bring it at up to 99 MPH. what does everybody think about the Twins working out a deal? Oh yeah, he still will be working for around the minimum (~$500,000), begins Arb in 2015.

Surely there's no hurry here to fill the spot from within? And surely, there are more (and better), "additional moves" to the roster coming between now and opening day? The Twins wouldn't go into the season with fewer offensive weaponry tools than last year- a year which produced one of the highest K-rates of all-time and the lowest Twins run total since 1968 (The "Year of the Pitcher")? Surely, they still covet acquiring an additional FA major league arm? Surely?

Both you and I questioined the validity of this article early on in this thread, my comment was cut. With all the upgrades made to the major league rotation plus the addition of 2 more potential LHSP, it was pretty obvious that the gist and premise of this article needed questioning as to its validity. Albers, barring an unprecedented string of injuries and/or trades was never going to be the Twins 5th starter coming out of ST. But....give credit where credit's due to Albers, for making the most of his opportunities with the Twins, hope he tears it up in Korea.

Dollars and years. And you're probably right about the percentages, but it's the easiest way to get this thing turned around and establish legitimacy and serious of intent on the part of managment to get other potential FA targets to at least consider the Twins as a landing place in the next couple years.

No guarantees, but the chances of Drew "crushing" offensively Florimon over the next 3 years is as close to a sure thing as you can possibly get for your investment portfolio. His injury history has already been demonstrated to be an overblown concept for alleged concern. He doesn't need to defy statistics, the Twins just need to manage his PAs to favor a higher ratio against RHP- he can sit a few more starts than he has in the past (say ~30-35), which reasonably gives him the chance to stay fresh over the next 3 years. How many SSs stay effective into their mid-30s and later? Many more than you give credit for. The Twins with 2 more big FA signings (Drew and a Garza-level SP) this offseason could fairly be considered a fringe prospect, and they certainly have a shot at being "good" or better in 2015 if their 5 top prospects become productive as they transition into the lineup this year and next. If Drew begins to decline precipitously in Year 3, there are other options developing- and absorbing a year of Drew's salary in his expiring year will be simple with other big names already off the books. This potential contract isn't a club-crippling gamble by any means. I think as a community we all need a little more optimism in supporting the probabilities for a Twins coming turnaround here at Twins Daily- Terry Ryan has already forked over $87M this offseason, just a little more fan "nudging" at the still-readily available $$$s remaining in the Pohlad purse strings and we can all help get this club back to relevancy sooner- not later.

As cited before, Ben Revere was one of the top 5 hitters in baseball from his reinsertion into the Phillies starting lineup in late-April until his season-ending injury in July. It is a suspension of disbelief to think that Worley is somehow going to all of a sudden regain his form from 3 years ago. I like May's cerebral approach to improving his performance as a potential MLB starter, but the jury is still out on if he can ever reach his ceiling. If he eventually becomes a Matt Guerrier-type with Worley getting released for ineffectiveness, how will that justify that the Twins won the trade?

I don't hate Duensing and they would have been foolish to non-tender him (but his lefty split advantage did evaporate quite a bit in 2013), but there's a fighting chance they can get a mid-level prospect for him with proper timing of the potential deal and try out Kris Johnson for the primary LHRP role at a fraction of the cost. His MiLB split against lefties looks pretty dominant. And there are always going to be a few decent lefty arms on the waiver wire in late March.

I'm glad you at least, grudgingly, partially answer the question that Drew would be an upgrade. But it's more than just OBP. He is demonstrably better at the plate than Florimon in Every. Single. Category. You continue to come back to the 20X the cost equation. As Spycake has stated, Drew's offensive WAR contribution clearly outstrips the premium cost for a proven major league bat. In answering your question, "...but at what price?", my answer is simple, one the Twins demonstrably can afford to pay, and just as importantly, incurs ZERO cost that could hinder the long-term plan for the club.