jokin

Exactly my argument on the timing for trading Correia, his low-cost, one-year contract may become very desirable to a team during Spring Training when the need for a healthy arm suddenly arises, it seems reasonable that they might be willing to trade a semi-decent prospect currently in A ball to land a 5th SP coming off of an injury-free year.

Subtract Correia by trade in Spring Training and you have the same contract alignment, but more cheaply, a pitcher superior to Correia, and you gain a new wrinkle to the Rotation by adding the missing Lefty, whose handedness could be another desirable attribute as a flipping prospect.

Inconsistency in thought processes, re Drew/Guerrier, duly noted. This Guerrier signing is a head-scratcher if this team is just signing old Twins retreads simply because they're low-hanging, feel-good, fruit......AND, if it's totally at the expense of not also looking for high-reward, cheap, low-risk potential opportunities that fit in with a team that is rebuilding a base of younger, but major-league-ready, RP pitching depth......... particularly when someone like 26-year old, Brayan Villareal could be claimed from the Red Sox and then signed on a similar sort of deal.

What with all of this talk about the remaining FA SPs, most recently circling back to soon-to-be 37, soft-tosser, Bronson Arroyo, how is it that 35 year old, slightly-harder-throwing, Chris Capuano's name hasn't come up more often? He's an available and able left-hander for a rotation mostly devoid of those traits, he was throwing big innings as recently as 2011 and 2012, he has much better stuff (although definitely less durable) than Arroyo, his velocity actually increased in 2013, probably still has some Midwestern ties from his 7-year stint in the Brewers organization...... and he's looking for a one-year deal....probably at a discount? Is there any reason why the Twns shouldn't be actively considering Capuano? http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/explaining-the-chris-capuano-bargain/

Yup. It was inexplicable so many times last year. A Mauer swing and miss K, and the members of my viewing group, collectively, "Who was that guy?" "What's wrong with Mauer?" "Past time for an eye exam." Etc. Does anyone know the history and precedent for actually breaking a disturbing three-year trend like this?

A 19 year old Thome-body-in-the-making, who just hit 40 HRs in 400 ABs in 2013, probably shouldn't be casually dismissed as a future major-leaguer out of hand....but I'm glad we have Sano instead of a future 3 True Outcome guy.

How much action is Linus willing to lay out here? I'll definitely take the over he's giving....and providing he's healthy and doesn't get suspended for slow-trotting his HRs, I suggest that 35 combined is very doable- you're spot on, Shane, Sano will have his way with AAA pitchers- especially if/when the weather ever warms up.

As I stated, there is one outlier to the upside amongst the projections for Mauer to OPS at around .840, the rest go from .830 down to .792. I gave Mauer the benefit of the doubt on that one and said to myself, they're generalzing and don't know Mauer like we do and he's always outperformed the expectations when he's healthy, but then, trying to rationalize the dissonance between my optimism and the projections negativity, my thinking went something like this: "OK, BABIP in 2013 was .383...>career BABIP is .349, 34 points....>OPS in 2013 was .880....>OPS is likely to drop back similarly.....> particularly- and this was the part you left out- since his K% has gone from 9% to 11% to 13% to 17% in the last 4 years, 3 of these 4 years he has played while healthy" I hope I'm wrong, but even if he duplicates his .880 OPS from last year, look where that got us, lowest run total since 1968- and is anyone questioning that there isn't going to be a decent-sized drop-off at the other 2 spots in this triad? My assumption on Willingham is that he's likely to get every chance to play LF, until proven otherwise, to maximize trading options, so how much time he spends DHing is problematic at this point, but he appears to be their best option. The drop-off as a DH bat after Josh is obviously huge and/or very speculative (Kubel). Regarding DHing, it's pretty well-documented that while some guys do well in the role, others have a tougher time adjusting to not playing in the field. The small data as a DH is admittedly not much, but it's what we have to go on, that, and the doubts remaining that he can come back to form at age 35. Oliver is the outlier to the downside, projecting .708 for the Hammer, the other 3 range from .767-.774 Hey, I hope I'm wrong on this one, too, but I'm not the one tilting at windmills. I'm trying to be more optimistic than all these negative projections- and to me, there's little doubt that C/1B/DH combined is going to be less productive than 2013. Convince me that Willingham is going to full-time DH and come close to matching his career OPS- I"ll be on board with that one when all the evidence is in. To this point the case hasn't been made, and that's why the Twins desperately need more quality bats. Terry Ryan's repeated offseason quotes wishing for offensive upgrades demonstrates that he's on my side in this discussion.

"Fangraphs projects .744" Link please? I can't wrap my ahead around this number based on what I am looking at at their site. Willingham is likely to start out, at the very least, as the LF to maximize his trade value, so what level his production will be as a DH is in doubt at this point. And Pinto seems certain to be highly discounted in his theoretical contribution based on what the Twins have hinted to and the money spent in acquiring a FA Catcher. Kubel on the 3 published projections in Fangraphs (ZIPS, Oliver, Steamer) produces an average OPS of .705. Joe Mauer on the same 3 published projections yields an average OPS of .817. Hard to get to .744 OPS from here with the very thin bench depth under these 2 spots, especially if Willingham ends up mostly in LF (until he's traded) and Pinto only ends up playing 80 games or less (likely .625 net OPS for the other 3 options).

Again, my own projection for Mauer's number in 2014 is higher than anyone else's out there- I said I could also see the .875 OPS you are hoping for. And I'm not following you on your last couple sentences. Are you saying that it isn't likely that the 20-30 games that someone else (Parmelee, Colabello, Plouffe?) besides Mauer play at First Base are going to drag the net average OPS down from Mauer's own OPS? I think .825 OPS, combined net, is pretty optimistic, if Joe plays 135-140 games at the position.

Again, why project Fryer's numbers at all into your model, if they're so inconsequential? I'm trying to be fair, somewhat optimistic and realistic at the same time, and going off of comprehensive compiled stats and trends, certainly not one-sided.

It can be equally stated that based on every projection that is out there, that .850 for Mauer: at age 31, coming off of a high BABIP year, increasing trend in upward K rates and no immediate heir apparent providing plate protection, is optimistic. I certainly think .875 is entirely possible, as well, you say I'm being overly negative, I say I'm trying to be realistic with expectations. Regarding DH, Willingham is a career .706 OPS as a DH, this is primarily all with MN and Oakland the last 3 years, when he supposedly has been healthy. How does that square with your assertion that the DH number will be well over .700 OPS? This is just one solid reason why I am so concerned that lack of offseason moves is going to lead to a "massive failure" at the DH/C/1B combined production.

Plouffe hasn't had much success as a DH....>.321 OPS in 9 games last year, for his career at DH, his OPS is .504. Fryer OPD'd @ .624 in 3 years of AAA ball, .625 is optimistic. And Chris Hermann isn't really a better bat option. I don't get what's "backhanded" about projecting that either Kubel or Willingham, or both, can rebound from disastrous years in 2013, that seems on my part to be both optimistic and fully acknowledging that either or both can regress closer to their mean career production.

Uhh, I didn't say Mauer at .825 OPS. I said Mauer at .850 (which is more optimistic than every other projection out there), combined with whomever else plays First Base, for a combined, net average at 1B of .825 OPS.

Could you flesh out your "conservative projections" of a combined .737 OPS more specifically? We OPS'd @ .770 from the DH last year (2nd in the League). That number is nearly certain to drop with the combined loss of Mauer's and Morneau's production playing DH, which was close to .850 OPS in 2013. The likely suspects @ DH are coming off of these numbers: Willingham (.577 as a DH), Kubel (.610), Colabello (.631) Parmelee (.663). A 2014 OPS of .700 seems extremely optimistic here. Our Catcher OPS was .781 in 2013, with Suzuki (.627 OPS) and Fryer (3 years @ AAA OPS of .624) or Chris Hermann (.611 OPS/.565 career OPS) possibly starting out as the catching duo, that number is clearly going to plummet, even if/when Pinto takes over the primary catching role. A combined OPS of .650 seems reasonable, if not generous. Obviously, Mauer will eclipse Morneau's .741 OPS at First Base, and presumably more likely stay healthy the entire season at that position. Even still, the most optimistic projected OPS for Mauer out there is <.850. Combine that with whomever else gets playing time at First Base and you're looking at a pretty reasonable number closer to .825 OPS. Consolidating those 3 positions, I get a very generous combined projection of .725 OPS.

With the Twins apparently satisfied in only "monitoring" the Yoon situation, it sounds like the Indians are closing in on landing a deal as of 10PM CST: http://outsidepitchmlb.com/2014/01/29/suk-min-yoon-to-the-indians/

My projection was entirely based on Drew's potential to come close to repeating the production he gave in 2013. Certainly, if he is having a good year in 2014, many clubs will be on the phone if they suddenly become needy in the middle infield when there is no draft pick involved and the costs of his remaining contract are fully quantifiable. And Boras always declines the QO. A risk for the Twins, yes, but one I was willing to seriously entertain had the Twins signed an additional Garza-level FA SP. Now that Garza is off the table and the Twins are highly unlikely to sign anyone else, it's probably best that the Twins move on, and resign themselves to another likely 90-loss season and start thinking hard about who plays SS in 2015 and beyond.

In response to this situation, 'best post ever' in the comments section by someone who calls himself "Monkey Revolution", well worth clicking over for a chuckle or two: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/twins-sign-matt-guerrier.html#disqus_thread

I don't think anyone wants Drew long-term, but a one or two year deal, plus all the consequences surrounding a favorably flippable SS asset.... and.... given the Twins history in the 2nd round, you can probably get a more proven prospect on the flip, or a Sandwich 1st Rd. Pick after a declined QO.

Excellent post. I posted on this a month ago, and predicted this and Santana still to come. This appears to be by design- sort of the opposite marketing objective of the "The Twins...Get to Know 'Em" campaign in the 90s.

Thanks for clarifying, you had me confused there. And yeah, "better replacement" is the understatent of the offseason.

Excellent points. But this quantity over quality is exactly the way that Terry rebuilt the bullpen, seemingly to spread the risk around with his available dollars.

Waring got the contract that his career and skills merited. The spring training invite probably helped nudge Waring towards signing with the Twins. A unique skill set might accomplish on the cheap what would cost a small fortune for a proven major leaguer. Classic Terry Ryan bargain-seeking- the odds are against it working out, but costs little to find out.

Perhaps I'm missing something here. The Twins 2nd rd. pick is currently #45 for 2014. Isn't it likely going to be around that level in 2015? I'm unconvinced on Eades, his mechanics make it seem like he's going to be battling arm issues for the duration of his career. Convince me that the Twins can do better than him with a 2015 pick, at say around 40-45, and I'll be on board with keeping the pick. With Drew, isn't there a chance you can trade him for a more proven prospect, or recover the lost pick with a QO?

A Korean source says that Suk Min Yoon is reportedly very close to signing a deal, with the Red Sox and the Twins in the lead for his sevices. The deal is being estimated to be worth around 2/$10M.