Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jokin

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    11,852

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    8

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jokin

  1. jokin
    No one said that anything necessarily translates. One article that I cited in this thread said it might translate to major league skils, and apparently, Terry Ryanm by giving Waring a Spring Training invite, is willing to take a shot on a unique talent set to see if it might translate.
  2. jokin
    I forgot to include the other standout stat for Waring. His FB % was nearly 49% combined (51% vs LHP). This ~49% number comparatively would have been second in MLB, with only Brandon Moss (51.8%) topping Waring.
  3. jokin
    You missed the part about his extreme platoon hit advantage against lefties, which was the point of the post. This guy against lefties has a career AA/AAA HR/FB rate of 24.1% and in 2013 his rate was 28% (22% combined) Only Chris Davis in the majors had a higher combined rate than Waring against lefties (29.6%). Waring's combined HR/FB% in 2013 would have ranked 6th in the majors. I can see what Terry Ryan is thinking here. Who knows? It's certainly worth a spring training look.
  4. jokin
    I was one of them wondering why the Twins would let a guy go out there and get shelled game after game coming back less than a year after TJ, without a team option as part of the contract package. Agreed though, he should be better this year.
  5. jokin
    I'm not blaming him, but there's no denying he was pretty "consistently" awful in the first 2 months. It was incumbent upon the Twins management to have prevailed it upon him....clearly.... he should have been working through those things elsewhere.
  6. jokin
    I'm glad you brought up last year's Pyth-number, which is very contextual in this discussion. I predicted 70-74 after the Winter Meetings brought back nothing (I predicted 66-75 in 2013), which I guess makes my median number @ 72 wins, and at this point, in consideration of how my prediction turned out last year, I feel a little over-optimistic, yet again, myself. Keeping my fingers crossed that a couple more impactful moves are in the works to make this all moot, but for now, the 90-loss projections don't seem all that unreasonable.
  7. jokin
    Don't we have some overweight, straight-ball-throwing relief pitcher that might be of interest to the Nats for this guy I'm not too familiar with, whatzzhizzname? Ramos?
  8. jokin
    Hopefully, not for very long....
  9. jokin
    Not if at least one of them could ably back up/start in other positions. Taking advantage of severe platoon splits might actually be the most economically viable way to solve the lack of offense (Baker or Plouffe/Kubel is one possibility, pair a LH bat with Brandon Waring, who has a high SLG and a .900+ OPS against LHP in AA/AAA, Mauer could DH for 30+ games if he needs to keep his legs fresh with a bench bat with optimal history against certain pitchers going in to play First Base, etc.).
  10. jokin
    Let's do apples and apples, how did Ramos do catching Strasburg, in 2013?
  11. jokin
    Pinto was shut down in Winter Leagues due to a sore shoulder and a .179 BA, and by the end of December, LEN 3 was whispering that Pinto may start out in AAA, right as Terry Ryan was singing Eric Fryer's praises. It isn't hard to do the math, with all the money they are shelling out to Suzuki and Gardy's proclivities towards using veterans, Suzuki's going to play a ton until Pinto proves he's ready to supplant him.
  12. jokin
    Hicks, yes, but only after the Twins decimated their OF in the offseason. Arcia was promoted based on merit and need, he kicked the doors in to get here. Gibson certainly could have been moved up in May, especially after 2 outstanding AAA starts and a near no-hitter, right when many members of the rotation were in varying states of distress, injury or collapse (Worley, Pelfrey, Diamond, Deduno).
  13. jokin
    Re: Mike Pelfrey: Wasn't that what about 99% of us were saying about his situation just one year ago on February 1? And again, reiterated more strongly on May 1, after an April that yielded a 7.66 ERA. And again, reiterated on June 1, after a May ERA of 5.90? One could argue that the Twins could have had better "consistency" from Kyle Gibson during those first 2 months.
  14. jokin
    As are the number of players who came into the league with an 80 power rating. Sano not only has gotten the rating from respected multiple services that rarely, if ever, hand out that rating, he has done things in 2013 in the FSL that were unprecedented and at least give credence to the possbility- at least 1-3%. (His cause would be greatly aided if he had a proven major leaguer like Kendrys Morales batting behind him in the order, or if Arcia somehow hits his full offensive ceiling).
  15. jokin
    They signed more than just Abreu, and got interesting prospects via the trades of your aforementioned departures, plus he factors in positive regression for certain returning players. Will the Sox reach 79 wins? I highly doubt it, and Abreu's numbers are inflated, but that wasn't my overarching point- which is- the formula Davenport uses seems to overemphasize and exaggerate regressionary bouncebacks.
  16. jokin
    Mark McGwire hit 26 HRs playing at AA, AAA and MLB combined in 1986. The next year, his official rookie year, he hit 49. Sano hit 35 last year, and he did that even though missing significant time, playing in 2 tough pitcher's leagues, and not getting a September call-up. There is a precedent and Sano is the real deal. The odds aren't high that he can accomplish his goal, but they aren't zero, either.
  17. jokin
    Difficult, but not impossible. As rare as it is to hit 40 HR, it is even more rare to possess a True 80 power ratng. The Twins have had nothing like Sano since Killebrew, and athletically for a power hitter, nothng lke Sano (Winfield doesn't count).
  18. jokin
    Watching Gardy's head explode 40 times after those nice, slow trots would double the enjoyment.
  19. jokin
    They've actually made more than a couple of significant moves, but no doubt part of the projection is related to regression to the mean.....The Whities in the previous 5 seasons won anywhere from 79-89 games. A 16 win improvement + last year's total of 63 wins = 79 wins.
  20. jokin
    I think most fans think the rotation has considerably improved. By contrast, the Twins lost 2 major league hitters and they, themselves admit the offense is still full of holes.
  21. jokin
    The projections think so highly of the Twins current projected opening day roster, that they have 4 guys slated for minor league duty, namely Pinto, Sano and Buxton as the second, third and fourth-best position players and Alex Meyer as the second best pitcher.
  22. jokin
    And other on- and off-field distractions like the filming of Pelotero 2 and the Jeff Smith/Terry Ryan "suspension".
  23. jokin
    Based on the other studies I just posted, and for the Twins' fortune's sake, the Davenport model is the low-ball number, and that Mauer is nearer to the Oliver projection on the high side....sadly, even with that type of decent production from Mauer, this team is still projected to be in the bottom quintile in hitting in 2014.
  24. jokin
    Compounding the abusrdity of the derived math in his scenario, is the fact that he supposedly is factoring in for Mauer playing First Base full-time, not Catcher. If you click one level deeper in his skewed schema, with Mauer playing Catcher, he projects Mauer batting at: Davenport @ Catcher: .286/.366/.429-------->.795 OPS BABIP: ~.324 AB: 483 Davenport @ First Base: .277/.356/.409----->.765 OPS BABIP: ~.325 AB: 537 The numbers for Mauer at Catcher are near the other low-ball projection I could find, from ZIPS, only ZIPS has these numbers with Mauer, but at Frist Base: ZIPS @ First Base: .292/.378/.414----->.792 OPS BABIP: .334 AB: ~510 The other projections from Rotoworld are all computed with Mauer as a Catcher, and all suggest much better performance numbers, and the composite-derived-BABIP and OPS from the 3 projections are much more realistic: OPS @ .820 to go along with a very fair BABIP @ ~.342: [TABLE=class: PlayerGrids] [TR=bgcolor: silver] System Position Team AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG OPS BB K Value [/TR] [TR=bgcolor: #edcece] Composite Catcher MIN 533 79 12 71 3 0.296 0.384 0.435 0.820 75 96 $19 [/TR] RotoChamp Catcher MIN 515 83 11 72 2 0.283 0.375 0.421 0.796 74 95 $11 Steamer Catcher MIN 560 79 14 76 3 0.297 0.388 0.439 0.827 83 102 $22 CAIRO Catcher MIN 467 66 9 58 3 0.309 0.389 0.442 0.830 62 82 $10 [/TABLE] Oliver is the most optimistic, again at Catcher: .300/.382/.449 with an OPS @ .832 and BABIP @ .347, AB: 523.
  25. jokin
    He played injured thoughout 2010. JJ's Target Field slash as an Oriole: .311/.380/.400/.780 Maybe he had something to prove.....And of course, since 2010, the concrete has setted at TF, as well.
×
×
  • Create New...