jokin

Signing Sizemore would merely be a stopgap and insurance policy- and would sign very cheaply. No need for it to ever become a muddled situation, the day they are convinced that first Hicks, or then Buxton are ready, Sizemore is gone.

+1 to SpitefulRabbit And there is little basis for the attacking of the messenger.....while allowing for a mistake here and there, for the most part, Phil Miller has been a repertorially refreshing breath of beat-coverage-fresh air who hasn't been prone to a lot of sensationalistic or journalistic faux pas. His words are pretty unequivocally stated in reporting that both Kubel and Barlett appear to stand excellent chances on being on the opening day 25-man rosters with a decent shot to be starters. Spiteful, you answered you're own query quite distinctly, with both your opening and closing thoughts. It appears that the bargain-rate recycling of currently down-on-their-luck former Twins (with Santana still waiting in the wings) is the second prong in their two-pronged offseason marketing plan to stabilize attendance with: 1) an upgraded rotation, and, 2) throwing out some familiar names from the recent and more successful past, which Nicksaviking, is why they might whisper tidbits like this to Phil Miller. ( I wonder if Corey Koskie is being contemplated at One Twins Way as the platoon partner for Plouffe? /sarc). It actually might work out both marketing-wise and in on-the-field performance, but it's a much longer shot than actually getting better players to add to the Rotation upgrade prong in their apparent offseason Master Plan.

From MLB.com http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/cin/reds-dont-anticipate-much-roster-movement?ymd=20140103&content_id=66298510&vkey=news_cin : At least Sizemore and one team think he can come back with a somewhat better endorsement that TR gave Bartlett. Grady Sizemore at 75% until Buxton comes up or Hicks proves truly ready sounds pretty good to me.

Justifiably or not and as appealing as this lineup could end up being eventually (love to see Morales and Drew in there- I'd become the biggest homer overnite it they could pull that off), when you put together the intertwining stories of Sano's elbow condition, Ryan's continual and nagging praise of Eric Fryer as a legit ML C option, the overarching failure in management's assessment of Hicks' 2013 readiness, and then, meltdown, at both the beginning and end of the season, and Ryan's apparent dithering in the FA market for a bat, I think the odds favor that Sano, Pinto and Hicks will all be in the Rochester starting lineup in April and Morales and Drew will be with other contenders than the Twins.

Misery loves company:banghead:, besides just for you and me.....and assuredly knowing Gardy still has full say in personnel matters.....this line-up would be the odds-on favorite in Vegas, too.

I'd like for the Twins to do more to make it even more likely...and make the "possible" more like "probable" with proven major leaguers sprinkled into the lineup and combine that with some creative thinking employing some strategic platoons. My original proposal assumed regression to the mean of players like Willingham and Plouffe to get closer to your 50+ run upgrade. The problem is they essentially have downgraded the offense from 2013 at C/1B/DH combined, so there is obviously work to do here for Terry Ryan. Counting on players like Arcia and Dozier to up their numbers from 2013 is too much based on hope in my mind. If there were payroll or prospect-blocking issues, I'd demur.... but there aren't...and they should

Drew and Hardy available at SS. Morales and M Young available to DH. Weiters and possibly Jason Castro at C. Possibly Pods or Grady Sizemore available as CFs. Jason Kubel would be a great story if he can come in here and hit like he did in 2012, but I think the odds are pretty long to get that type of production: 1)he got those 2012 numbers in the thin desert air, 2)he hates Target Field, 3)you can't possibly play him in the OF at the same time that Willingham is out there (Arcia may need another trip down to AAA), 4)his K% has gone up every year dramatically since 2009, alarmingly up to 31.7% in 2013, 5)his Contact Rate is also plummeting, to career lows (69.8%) in 2013..(he averaged in the 80+% while with the Twins). Hope the Twins have him visit an ophthamologist.

Mark me down as: Stunned.....but as USAFChief said above, the fact that Miller would willingly print this comment possibly says volumes of what the Twins think of Florimon- a 34 year old who has basically been out of baseball for 2 years- has a decent shot at taking Flori's starting job on a rebuilding team.

Drew's injury was Joe Theismann-like horrific. Watch the video to the very end if you can stomach viewing a foot pointing the wrong direction from the body: http://www.sportsgrid.com/mlb/video-diamondbacks-shortstop-stephen-drew-suffers-gruesome-freak-injury/ He fractured the fibula, which required surgery to install a series of plates, plus, even more importantly he tore numerous ligaments, making this much more than just a broken ankle injury.

I hope this is true, but Miller's rhetoric seems to either be taking wildly great license by the choices in his rhetorical flourish..."are projected to make the Twins"...."perhaps earn starting roles" ...which could blow up in his face and make him look really foolish..... or he has been tipped by Twins management that both Bartlett and Kubel are on the inside track to securing roster spots. This would necessarily indicate that the Twins have set their sights against further significant offseason improvement from any potential position player acquisitions. Disappointing if true, as there are opportunities out there, plus payroll space.

Phil Miller threw a little wrinkle into Spring Training with this little tidbit buried in his article about Twins non-roster ST invitees http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/239450721.html : These 2 aren't anywhere to be found on the Twins own current depth chart: http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/?c_id=min While I expected Kubel to have a decent chance to make the club out of ST and either sink or swim to stay on the roster, Bartlett's chances of making the Twins seemed much less likely.

From Phill Miller today, this disconcerting quote: Among the most notable are former Twins Jason Bartlett, who agreed to a minor-league contract in November, and Jason Kubel, who signed a minor-league deal in December. Those two are projected to make the Twins' 25-man roster, and perhaps earn starting roles. http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/239450721.html

This assessment really surprised me coming from your normally optimistic prospect assessments (an area where we all tend to share higher levels of optimism, admittedly). But to say that Sano has a 90% chance to end up as either the Next Big Bust, or just another 1-time All Star cog in the wheel seems a might pessimistic in my mind. There's certainly a zone of quality in-between Cabrera and Palmer for Sano's career to land- and most Twins fans would be happy for it to happen.....and as Thrylos stated, Chris Davis should be the floor of that, to coin a phrase, "Zone of Quality." And ironically, Sano may still end up at 1B at some point in the near future, what with his current elbow situation.

The other stats you cite are statistically valid and worth considering- and they certainly should have a team of Mayo Clinic's best Athletic Medicine Physicians going over his ankle situation before signing him, but the tiny number of PAs in postseason shouldn't really give anyone pause and isn't much of a trend- again Joe Mauer's playoff OPS number collapsed in half from 2009 to 2010- 50 or less PAs are at best, statistical noise. And he had been playing either injured or coming back from a catastrophic injury during much of the last 3 seasons, so that BA dropoff can be a bit explained away in part (lack of infield hits, weight shift issues in the batters box, etc). Interestingly though, the Batting decline is primarily from a collapse vs. LHP. Here are Drew's career numbers vs. RHP .275 BA/.795 OPS And his numbers in 2013 vs. RHP: .284 BA/.876 OPS I don't detect any regression or "law of diminishing returns" against RHP in these numbers. The K% is certainly of concern, but as I stated, he still has a lower overall K rate than Pedro Florimon! And almost all of the cause for the increase in his K rate has been him disturbingly going over 30% K-rate against Lefties. This is why I am thinking some teams are avoiding him and why I advocate signing him primarily as a platoon player, one who we can get to potentially derive great value from exploiting his extreme platoon split to our advantage- maybe with a platoon partner like Escobar (.739 OPS career against LHP). Plus you finally would have a legitimate PH option on his off days.

SSS numbers (Drew postseason career OPS of .611) are a pretty meaningless measurment of a player's value and you're mixing apples and oranges here- I was referring to the fact that Drew was more than healthy enough to be in the lineup consistenly in a pennant race and into the postseason . We could similarly inaccurately diminish Joe Mauer's career ( net postseason OPS of .673...., .432 in '06, .1000 in '09, .558 in '10 ) and other great Twins lack of playoff production if we wish to go down that road.

Going all in is my vote, I want to improve the team right now without disturbing the long-term plan.....Besides signing Drew or the Cuban SS....(Not signing Drew is not, as you asserted, the end of the world, but it would be a strong statement from Ownership and Management that this is the Beginning of the End of the stale and sclerotic culture aound the Twins 2011-2013, raising every player's expectations and personal accountability for success from this day forward. The "let's play it safe and slow and shoot for relevancy by 2017!!!" crowd is pretty cavalier about wasting 3 or 4 more years of Joe Mauer on a rebuilding squad). The Twins can still sign a DH, going big (Morales), or small (Young or Reynolds) without blocking the long-term plan. The Twins could be creative and bring back Pods or Grady Sizemore to play CF on an inexpensive and temporary basis. Trade for a Catcher. Weiters and Castro are on the market. The only thing you lose from this scenario is whatever you must give up in trade for a Catcher- preferably a ML player's roster spot and someone not in the top 5 prospect group- but even Rosario should be considered if you can get either one of these as your Catcher for the rest of the decade.

How about trying to improve the offense by going both ways, acquire the big positional name (Drew) and one or two of the role players? To me, this is the only course of action to have a shot at getting that 100 run improvement (ie, upgraded production is going to have to come from multiple sources, as C/1B/DH combined production is almost certain to drop year over year without a player upgrade).

Mystery? Drew's numbers have been presented in these threads in black and white. For an offense this anemic, you have to consider all your options, and particularly considering the ones easiest to implement without upsetting the long-term master plan. In FA available options and in the scenario of future Twins prospects being blocked by going after corner OF and 3B, the biggest and easiest opening for upgrading the team offense is by acquiring Drew or Hardy. They can certainly also consider upgrading the DH position through FA, Morales and Young are out there. And by considering a trade for either Weiters or Castro Astro at Catcher. Why would anyone automatically assume this to be true? All of the SS options you mentioned are still encumbered with question marks, and Turner may or may not be available at #5. If we can get Garza or one of the other top 3 starters, the chances of becoming at the very least a fringe wild card contender go up dramatically- even in 2014. Given the admission and commitment from the FO to rebuild the Starting Rotation from the ground up- and finally emphasizing quality throwers over scrapheap rag-arm tossers, if Drew is here for 3 years, I think most people would feel that something will have gone seriously wrong if the Twins weren't "ready to contend" by or before 2016.

Let me pile on here and note, the allegedly "health-challenged" Stephen Drew played in all but 2 games in August and all but 2 games in September right up until the day the Red Sox clinched home field advantage on September 22. Here are Drew's hitting stats, the opposite of health-challenged: 1st half .722 OPS 2nd half .837 OPS From July 27 on: .880 OPS

The key factor that you left out and the big difference between the Twins and the Red Sox is that the Sox have a legitimate SS in waiting (Bogaerts)....a guy who was ranked in 2012 by BA almost as high as Buxton and Sano are now. And the Sox aren't necessarily done with Drew by any means- my guess is they prefer a one-year "SS insurance policy" with Drew, and Boras is plying the waters to try to get a longer deal than that.

Except that we have the statistical anomaly of Florimon being higher rated by bWAR over fWAR. And Brock thought that fWAR was the better metric for positional players.

I'm not sure if this is going to play out that way. Isn't Swarzak's "value" of taking one for the team going to greatly diminish, what with the SP upgrades in 2014? Facts: Swarzak pitched nearly 75% of all his innings in low-leverage situations in 2013. In those innings, his bOPS was .580. In high-leverage situations, his bOPS was virtually .900. And those numbers are an apt reflection on his career as a whole. Thus, it remains highly problematic that greater value is yet to obtained from him- he is almost certain to have many less mop-up jobs in 2014. I have the gut feeling that the expected arb salary increases are going to eventually price him out of baseball.

I have a slightly different take, I would drop the "n" in "an" and insert the word "major" between "an" and "improvement". And fWAR adjusted for Florimon's skewed and partial season stats, assigned him a WAR value of only 1.3.

I don't get the Drew-loathing. Drew doesn't just hit RHP well, he hits them great. And his health concerns are being unfairly drawn based on one severe ankle injury requiring major surgery, and his hamstring pull in 2013. Before 2011, he was virtually an Everyday Eddie. And the facts from 2013 on the state of Drew's health don't support your opinion. I don't understand how you derived your projected 50% absence rate for Drew at all. Drew played in 124 games, that's 77%. Besides missing the first 7 games of the season due to a concussion (that's an automatic and unavoidable league-mandated sanction these days- do we really want to go there with the Twins concussion history?), Drew had one stint on the DL, missing 23 games in total. That works out to 14% of games missed (as a healthy platoon player, that means he would have only missed around 16 games, which is more like missing less than 10% of the games due to injury). Furthermore, Drew was at his toughest and best-performing when the crunch time of the season hit. Drew played in 10 of 12 games once he was reactivated in July, 26 of 28 games in August, and 22 of the first 24 games in September, resting only once the Red Sox had clinched. Drew's best months of the season were from July 27th to season's end, OPSing @ .880 w/ a .292 BA. His 2013 ISO of .190 was ranked 2nd among all SS. By contrast, Florimon's ISO was a paltry .109 and he had the worst K% among all SS, even worse than Drew's. While acknowledging that there is risk on any 3-year deal, all indications are that Drew has regained his health and most of his pre-2011 form, thus, the math adds up that playing in 70% or more of his team's games is a more likely supposition than less than 50%. He had a 3.4 WAR playing in 77% of the games in 2013, something around $10M/yr seems like a pretty responsible risk to me.

I have my doubts about both of them. I hope to be proven wrong. Kubel's swinging numbers decline is concerning and Parm's ship appears to have sailed- this was a guy that needed to play everyday to answer the question once and for all, it never happened- with Mauer now at 1B (not that Parm was great there) and Kubel and Hicks (eventually) needing playing time and saving the 4th OF spot for Presley- I wouldn't be surprised if Parm is DFAd in ST.